Editor's Note:
Bulls were in charge on Friday although most of the gains looked like profit taking by the shorts after the long slide.

We saw IDA and LEN hit our triggers.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

ACI Worldwide, Inc. - ACIW - close: 46.54 change: +1.54

Stop Loss: 43.75
Target(s): 49.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 5.7%
Time Frame: exit prior to the late July earnings report.
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/14/12 update: ACIW delivered a strong performance on Friday with a +3.4% surge toward its July highs. More conservative traders may want to start inching up their stop losses. Don't forget that we want to exit prior to the late July earnings report (the last week of July).

current Position: Long ACIW stock @ $44.05

07/03/12 new stop loss @ 43.75
06/29/12 triggered @ 44.05

chart:

Entry on June 29 at $44.05
Earnings Date 07/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 318 thousand
Listed on June 27, 2011


Extra Space Storage - EXR - close: 31.50 change: +0.33

Stop Loss: 29.99
Target(s): 33.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.1%
Time Frame: exit prior to the late July earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/14/12 update: EXR failed to keep pace with the broader market with a +1.0% gain versus the +1.6% gain in the S&P 500. Yet EXR did close at new highs. There are no changes from my prior comments.

Our target is $33.50 but we'll plan to exit prior to the late July earnings report.

Suggested Position: Long EXR stock @ $31.15

07/09/12 triggered @ 31.15

chart:

Entry on July 09 at $31.15
Earnings Date 07/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
Listed on July 07, 2011


IdaCorp. - IDA - close: 43.44 change: +0.51

Stop Loss: 41.90
Target(s): 45.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.7%
Time Frame: exit prior to the early August earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/14/12 update: IDA has broken out past resistance near $43.00 and closed at new multi-year highs. Our trigger to launch positions was hit at $43.15 early Friday morning. Our multi-week target is $45.00.

current Position: Long IDA stock @ $43.15

07/13/12 triggered @ 43.15

chart:

Entry on July 13 at $43.15
Earnings Date 08/02/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 217 thousand
Listed on July 11, 2011


Lennar Corp. - LEN - close: 31.02 change: -0.04

Stop Loss: 29.49
Target(s): 34.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/14/12 update: LEN's performance on Friday was a little bit disappointing. The stock was upgraded before the bell on Friday but the news failed to help push LEN past short-term resistance near $32.00. The stock did hit our trigger at $31.40. Actually LEN gapped open at $31.41. Readers may want to wait for a new rally past $31.40 or wait for a breakout past the $32.00 mark instead before launching positions.

Earlier Comments:
The most recent data listed short interest at almost 22% of the 161 million share float. LEN could see a short squeeze if it shows any strength. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for LEN is bullish with a long-term $46 target.

current Position: Long LEN @ $31.40

- or -

Long Aug $32 call (LEN1218H32) Entry $1.57

07/13/12 triggered @ 31.40

chart:

Entry on July 13 at $31.40
Earnings Date 09/12/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.2 million
Listed on July 12, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

Aetna Inc. - AET - close: 38.16 change: +0.61

Stop Loss: 38.55
Target(s): 35.10
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.8%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/14/12 update: The market's oversold bounce on Friday helped AET to a +1.6% gain, which is in-line with the S&P 500's +1.6% advance. Shares of AET are now testing their 10-dma. If the bounce continues we could see AET hit our stop loss at $38.55. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for AET is bearish with a $29 target.

current Position: short AET stock @ $38.45

- or -

Long Aug $38 PUT (AET1218T38) Entry $1.65

07/12/12 new stop loss @ 38.55
07/03/12 new stop loss @ 39.55
07/03/12 triggered @ 38.45

chart:

Entry on July 03 at $38.45
Earnings Date 07/31/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.0 million
Listed on June 30, 2011


First Solar Inc. - FSLR - close: 14.17 change: +0.16

Stop Loss: 15.51
Target(s): 12.00, 10.50
Current Gain/Loss: +1.6%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/14/12 update: FSLR is still trying to find support near $14.00 but the highs seem to be getting lower. That would suggest FSLR still wants to go lower. FSLR has found recent support near $13.85. Traders could use a new breakdown under this level as a bearish entry point (and just adjust your stop loss lower). Actually readers may want to start adjusting their stop loss lower now.

Our first target is $12.00. Our longer-term, more aggressive target is $10.50.

Trigger @ 14.40

Suggested Position: short FSLR stock @ (trigger)

- or -

buy the Aug $14 PUT (FSLR1218T14) Entry $1.45

07/10/12 triggered @ 14.40

chart:

Entry on July 10 at $14.40
Earnings Date 08/02/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.3 million
Listed on June 30, 2011


Groupon, Inc. - GRPN - close: 7.79 change: -0.19

Stop Loss: 9.05
Target(s): 6.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 7.3%
Time Frame: exit prior to the early August earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/14/12 update: Good news! After a +10% bounce off its Thursday intraday low there wasn't any follow through for shares of GRPN. The rally stalled near the $8.00 level. Readers may want to go ahead and take profits here anyway but Friday's performance would suggest GRPN has further to fall. I'm not suggesting new positions.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short GRPN stock @ $8.40

- or -

Long Aug $8.00 PUT (GRPN1218T8) Entry $0.80

07/12/12 new stop loss @ 9.05

chart:

Entry on July 09 at $8.40
Earnings Date 08/08/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.1 million
Listed on July 07, 2011


Home Inns & Hotels Management - HMIN - close: 18.99 change: +0.42

Stop Loss: 20.25
Target(s): 18.00 & 15.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.1%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 9th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/14/12 update: The oversold bounce in HMIN continues. I suspect there is a good chance we will see HMIN rebound into the $19.50-20.00 zone before the bounce runs out of fuel. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

HMIN hit our first target at $18.00 on July 12th.

Our second target is $15.50.

Earlier Comments:
Readers may want to keep their position size small or use the options to limit their risk. The most recent data listed short interest at 17% of the 24.2 million share float.

Suggested Position: short HMIN stock @ $19.60

- or -

Long Aug $20 PUT (HMIN1218T20) Entry $1.70

07/12/12 new stop loss @ 20.25
07/12/12 1st target hit @ 18.00 (+8.2%)
1st target hit @ 18.00, option bid @ $2.50 (+47.0%)*
(option exit price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our first target was hit)
07/10/12 triggered @ 19.60

chart:

Entry on July 10 at $19.60
Earnings Date 08/09/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 284 thousand
Listed on July 09, 2011


Riverbed Tech. - RVBD - close: 14.20 change: +0.34

Stop Loss: 15.10
Target(s): 12.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.1%
Time Frame: exit prior to the July 24th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/14/12 update: RVBD took a nice chunk out of our potential gains with a +2.4% bounce on Friday. A little oversold bounce after such a sharp four-day decline isn't surprising. We can look for resistance near the 10-dma and the $15.00 level. Keep in mind that we don't have much time left. RVBD is due to report earnings on July 24th.

current Position: short RVBD stock @ $14.50

- or -

Long Aug $14 PUT (RVBD1218T14) Entry $1.16

07/12/12 new stop loss @ 15.10

chart:

Entry on July xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 07/24/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million
Listed on July 09, 2011


TRW Automotive - TRW - close: 35.58 change: +1.11

Stop Loss: 36.35
Target(s): 30.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.6%
Time Frame: exit prior to the July 31st earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/14/12 update: Ouch! TRW doesn't have a lot of short interest but Friday looks like some short covering with a +3.2% gain. The stock has bounced back toward the $36.00 level. This is prior support and should be new resistance. A failure here near $36 can be used as a new bearish entry point.

current Position: short TRW stock @ $35.38

- or -

Long Aug $35 PUT (TRW1218T35) Entry $1.90

07/12/12 new stop loss @ 36.35

chart:

Entry on July 11 at $35.38
Earnings Date 07/31/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 949 thousand
Listed on July 10, 2011