Editor's Note:
The S&P 500 is now down seven out of the last eight sessions. Investors don't seem to have much confidence in the market.

We did see FSLR get stopped out.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

ACI Worldwide, Inc. - ACIW - close: 46.04 change: -0.50

Stop Loss: 43.75
Target(s): 49.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.5%
Time Frame: exit prior to the late July earnings report.
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/16/12 update: After big gains on Friday ACIW struggled to see any follow through. The stock gave up -1%. Let's hope this isn't the beginning of a bearish double top pattern. More conservative traders may want to start inching up their stop losses. Don't forget that we want to exit prior to the late July earnings report (the last week of July).

current Position: Long ACIW stock @ $44.05

07/03/12 new stop loss @ 43.75
06/29/12 triggered @ 44.05

Entry on June 29 at $44.05
Earnings Date 07/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 318 thousand
Listed on June 27, 2011


Extra Space Storage - EXR - close: 31.65 change: +0.15

Stop Loss: 29.99
Target(s): 33.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.6%
Time Frame: exit prior to the late July earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/16/12 update: EXR continues to creep higher. The relative strength today produced a +0.4% gain.

Our target is $33.50 but we'll plan to exit prior to the late July earnings report.

Suggested Position: Long EXR stock @ $31.15

07/09/12 triggered @ 31.15

Entry on July 09 at $31.15
Earnings Date 07/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
Listed on July 07, 2011


IdaCorp. - IDA - close: 43.35 change: -0.09

Stop Loss: 41.90
Target(s): 45.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.5%
Time Frame: exit prior to the early August earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/16/12 update: IDA briefly traded to a new multi-year high above $43.50 before finally succumbing to some profit taking. Readers might want to consider waiting for a dip to or a bounce from the $43.00 level before initiating new positions. Our multi-week target is $45.00.

current Position: Long IDA stock @ $43.15

07/13/12 triggered @ 43.15

Entry on July 13 at $43.15
Earnings Date 08/02/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 217 thousand
Listed on July 11, 2011


Lennar Corp. - LEN - close: 31.39 change: +0.37

Stop Loss: 29.49
Target(s): 34.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.1%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/16/12 update: Traders were buying the dip in LEN on Monday morning and the stock outperformed the market with a +1.1% gain. I would consider new positions now or you could wait for a breakout past the $32.00 mark instead before launching positions.

Earlier Comments:
The most recent data listed short interest at almost 22% of the 161 million share float. LEN could see a short squeeze if it shows any strength. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for LEN is bullish with a long-term $46 target.

current Position: Long LEN @ $31.40

- or -

Long Aug $32 call (LEN1218H32) Entry $1.57

07/13/12 triggered @ 31.40

Entry on July 13 at $31.40
Earnings Date 09/12/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.2 million
Listed on July 12, 2011


Prudential Financial - PRU - close: 48.35 change: -0.79

Stop Loss: 47.49
Target(s): 53.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 1st earnings report.
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
07/16/12 update: There was no follow through on Friday's bullish breakout above PRU's simple 50-dma. Shares gave back -1.6%. Overall not much has changed. PRU is still trading under what looks like resistance in the $49.00 area.

I am suggesting a trigger to launch positions at $49.50. Please note that the $50.00 level could still be round-number resistance so more conservative traders may want to use a trigger above the $50.00 mark. Our target is $53.00 but we'll plan to exit ahead of the August 1st earnings report.

Trigger @ 49.50

Suggested Position: buy PRU stock @ (trigger)

- or -

buy the Aug $50 call (PRU1218H50)

Entry on July xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 08/01/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million
Listed on July 14, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

Aetna Inc. - AET - close: 38.03 change: -0.13

Stop Loss: 38.55
Target(s): 35.10
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.1%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/16/12 update: Fortunately there was almost zero follow through on AET's big bounce from Friday. Shares are hovering near resistance at the $38 level. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for AET is bearish with a $29 target.

current Position: short AET stock @ $38.45

- or -

Long Aug $38 PUT (AET1218T38) Entry $1.65

07/12/12 new stop loss @ 38.55
07/03/12 new stop loss @ 39.55
07/03/12 triggered @ 38.45

Entry on July 03 at $38.45
Earnings Date 07/31/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.0 million
Listed on June 30, 2011


Groupon, Inc. - GRPN - close: 7.67 change: -0.12

Stop Loss: 9.05
Target(s): 6.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 8.7%
Time Frame: exit prior to the early August earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/16/12 update: GRPN tried to rally this morning but ran out of steam just north of $8. The action today definitely looks bearish. More conservative traders may want to lower their stop loss again. I'm not suggesting new positions.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short GRPN stock @ $8.40

- or -

Long Aug $8.00 PUT (GRPN1218T8) Entry $0.80

07/12/12 new stop loss @ 9.05

Entry on July 09 at $8.40
Earnings Date 08/08/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.1 million
Listed on July 07, 2011


Home Inns & Hotels Management - HMIN - close: 19.31 change: +0.32

Stop Loss: 20.25
Target(s): 18.00 & 15.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.5%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 9th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/16/12 update: HMIN is not cooperating as the oversold bounce continues. We've been expecting a bounce toward the $19.50-20.00 zone and that seems to be where this stock is headed. The $20.00 mark should be resistance. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

HMIN hit our first target at $18.00 on July 12th.

Our second target is $15.50.

Earlier Comments:
Readers may want to keep their position size small or use the options to limit their risk. The most recent data listed short interest at 17% of the 24.2 million share float.

Suggested Position: short HMIN stock @ $19.60

- or -

Long Aug $20 PUT (HMIN1218T20) Entry $1.70

07/12/12 new stop loss @ 20.25
07/12/12 1st target hit @ 18.00 (+8.2%)
1st target hit @ 18.00, option bid @ $2.50 (+47.0%)*
(option exit price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our first target was hit)
07/10/12 triggered @ 19.60

Entry on July 10 at $19.60
Earnings Date 08/09/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 284 thousand
Listed on July 09, 2011


Harley-Davidson - HOG - close: 43.80 change: -0.15

Stop Loss: 45.25
Target(s): 40.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.1%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 1st earnings
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/16/12 update: It was a quiet day for HOG. Shares opened at $43.86 and dipped toward Friday's low before paring its losses. Shares seem to be struggling with prior support and what should be resistance near $44.00. I would still consider new bearish positions now but more conservative traders may want to wait for a new relative low under $42.90 before launching positions. We do not want to hold over the Aug. 1st earnings report. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for HOG is bearish with a $35.00 target.

current Position: short HOG stock @ $43.86

- or -

Long Aug $42 PUT (HOG1218T42) Entry $1.62

Entry on July 16 at $43.86
Earnings Date 08/01/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million
Listed on July 14, 2011


Riverbed Tech. - RVBD - close: 14.01 change: -0.19

Stop Loss: 15.10
Target(s): 12.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.4%
Time Frame: exit prior to the July 24th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/16/12 update: The oversold bounce in RVBD is losing steam but I would not launch new positions at this time. We can look for resistance near the 10-dma and the $15.00 level. Keep in mind that we don't have much time left. RVBD is due to report earnings on July 24th.

current Position: short RVBD stock @ $14.50

- or -

Long Aug $14 PUT (RVBD1218T14) Entry $1.16

07/12/12 new stop loss @ 15.10

Entry on July xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 07/24/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million
Listed on July 09, 2011


TRW Automotive - TRW - close: 35.04 change: -0.54

Stop Loss: 36.35
Target(s): 30.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.0%
Time Frame: exit prior to the July 31st earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/16/12 update: Good news! The bounce in TRW is starting to fail right where we expected, under resistance near $36.00. Readers can use today's drop as a new entry point for bearish positions.

current Position: short TRW stock @ $35.38

- or -

Long Aug $35 PUT (TRW1218T35) Entry $1.90

07/12/12 new stop loss @ 36.35

Entry on July 11 at $35.38
Earnings Date 07/31/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 949 thousand
Listed on July 10, 2011


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

First Solar Inc. - FSLR - close: 14.98 change: +0.81

Stop Loss: 15.51
Target(s): 12.00, 10.50
Current Gain/Loss: -7.7%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/16/12 update: Something sparked a short squeeze in FSLR today. Shares were initially down but around 10:00 a.m. the stock started to bounce. Once it got past short-term resistance near $14.25 FSLR soared higher and managed +10.7% gain off its intraday low today. Our stop loss was hit at $15.51, which coincidentally was the high for the day.

closed Position: short FSLR stock @ $14.40, exit $15.51 (-7.7%)

- or -

Aug $14 PUT (FSLR1218T14) Entry $1.45 exit $0.90 (-37.9%)

07/16/12 stopped out at $15.51
07/10/12 triggered @ 14.40

chart:

Entry on July 10 at $14.40
Earnings Date 08/02/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.3 million
Listed on June 30, 2011