Editor's Note:
The U.S. market rallied again but the small cap Russell 2000 index closed in negative territory.

Our TWX trade was triggered today.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

ACI Worldwide, Inc. - ACIW - close: 44.91 change: +0.16

Stop Loss: 43.75
Target(s): 49.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.0%
Time Frame: exit prior to the July 26 earnings report.
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/19/12 update: ACIW's bounce didn't get very far today. The stock struggled with short-term technical resistance at its 10-dma. That doesn't bode well for our trade. Readers may want to exit early now. I am not suggesting new positions. Don't forget that we want to exit prior to the July 26th earnings report.

current Position: Long ACIW stock @ $44.05

07/03/12 new stop loss @ 43.75
06/29/12 triggered @ 44.05

Entry on June 29 at $44.05
Earnings Date 07/26/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 318 thousand
Listed on June 27, 2011


Extra Space Storage - EXR - close: 31.86 change: -0.27

Stop Loss: 29.99
Target(s): 33.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.3%
Time Frame: exit prior to the July 30th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/19/12 update: EXR suffered some profit taking today with a -0.8% decline. Shares did pare their losses off the $31.58 intraday low. Of course if the market starts to pullback we will likely see EXR retest the $31.00 level again. Cautious traders might want to consider a stop loss closer to the $31 level.

Our target is $33.50 but we'll plan to exit prior to the July 30th earnings report.

Suggested Position: Long EXR stock @ $31.15

07/09/12 triggered @ 31.15

Entry on July 09 at $31.15
Earnings Date 07/30/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
Listed on July 07, 2011


IdaCorp. - IDA - close: 43.19 change: -0.18

Stop Loss: 41.90
Target(s): 45.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.1%
Time Frame: exit prior to the early August earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/19/12 update: Hmm... IDA flirting with a breakdown under support near $43.00 and its 10-dma but shares managed to rebound. This doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. IDA has spent the last four days consolidating in what looks like a bull flag pattern. Readers may want to use a new rally past $42.50 as an entry point. Just remember our plan to exit prior to the early August earnings report.

current Position: Long IDA stock @ $43.15

07/13/12 triggered @ 43.15

Entry on July 13 at $43.15
Earnings Date 08/02/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 217 thousand
Listed on July 11, 2011


Lennar Corp. - LEN - close: 30.32 change: -0.06

Stop Loss: 29.49
Target(s): 34.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.5%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/19/12 update: LEN broke down to a new three-week low and traded under what should have been support near $30.00 before bouncing back. The intraday low was $29.51 and our stop is at $29.49. Aggressive traders could buy this bounce but I would hesitate to launch new positions here.

Earlier Comments:
The most recent data listed short interest at almost 22% of the 161 million share float. LEN could see a short squeeze if it shows any strength. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for LEN is bullish with a long-term $46 target.

current Position: Long LEN @ $31.40

- or -

Long Aug $32 call (LEN1218H32) Entry $1.57

07/13/12 triggered @ 31.40

Entry on July 13 at $31.40
Earnings Date 09/12/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.2 million
Listed on July 12, 2011


Prudential Financial - PRU - close: 48.57 change: -0.08

Stop Loss: 47.49
Target(s): 53.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 1st earnings report.
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
07/19/12 update: The sideways consolidation in PRU continues. We are waiting for a breakout higher.

I am suggesting a trigger to launch positions at $49.50. Please note that the $50.00 level could still be round-number resistance so more conservative traders may want to use a trigger above the $50.00 mark. Our target is $53.00 but we'll plan to exit ahead of the August 1st earnings report.

Trigger @ 49.50

Suggested Position: buy PRU stock @ (trigger)

- or -

buy the Aug $50 call (PRU1218H50)

Entry on July xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 08/01/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million
Listed on July 14, 2011


Papa John's Intl. Inc. - PZZA - close: 52.59 change: +0.08

Stop Loss: 48.49
Target(s): 54.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.7%
Time Frame: exit prior to the July 31st earnings report (unconfirmed)
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/19/12 update: After yesterday's sprint higher in PZZA the stock took a day to catch its breath. Shares drifted sideways in a narrow range. I'm not suggesting new positions at current levels. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for PZZA is bullish with a $63 target.

current Position: Long PZZA stock @ $50.70

- or -

Long Aug $55 call (PZZA1218H50) Entry $0.55

Entry on July 18 at $50.70
Earnings Date 07/31/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 115 thousand
Listed on July 17, 2011


Time Warner Inc. - TWX - close: 39.14 change: +0.22

Stop Loss: 37.90
Target(s): 42.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.5%
Time Frame: exit prior to the early August earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/19/12 update: TWX tagged a new multi-year high and hit our trigger at $39.35 before paring its gains. I would still consider new positions now or nimble traders could try and buy a dip near $38.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for TWX is bullish with a $50 target.

current Position: Long TWX stock @ $39.35

- or -

Long Aug $38 call (TWX1218H38) Entry $1.80

07/19/12 triggered @ 39.35

Entry on July 19 at $39.35
Earnings Date 08/01/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.0 million
Listed on July 18, 2011


Verisk Analytics - VRSK - close: 50.44 change: -0.30

Stop Loss: 49.75
Target(s): 54.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.6%
Time Frame: exit prior to the July 31st earnings report (unconfirmed)
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/19/12 update: VRSK is down 50 cents in the last two days and shares look headed for the $50.00 level. At this point I would wait for a bounce from $50.00 before launching new positions. As an alternative you could wait for a new relative high over $51.00 as their entry point.

Our target is $54.50 but we'll plan to exit prior to the late July/early August earnings report.

Current Position: Long VRSK stock @ $50.72

Entry on July 18 at $50.72
Earnings Date 07/31/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 874 thousand
Listed on July 17, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

Focus Media Holdings - FMCN - close: 18.95 change: +0.20

Stop Loss: 20.10
Target(s): 15.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.0%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/19/12 update: FMCN continues to hover near short-term resistance at the $19.00 level. I would probably wait for a new drop under $18.50 or under $18.25 as our next bearish entry point.

Readers will want to consider limiting the size of their positions since FMCN can be such a volatile stock (or just use the options to limit how much capital you have exposed).

current Position: short FMCN stock @ $18.40

- or -

Long Aug $18 PUT (FMCN1218T18) Entry $1.50

Entry on July 17 at $18.40
Earnings Date 05/29/12
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million
Listed on July 16, 2011


Groupon, Inc. - GRPN - close: 7.40 change: +0.33

Stop Loss: 9.05
Target(s): 6.25
Current Gain/Loss: +11.9%
Time Frame: exit prior to the early August earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/19/12 update: GRPN saw an oversold bounce today with a +4.6% gain. The simple 10-dma at $7.85 and the $8.00 level should be overhead resistance. I don't see any changes from my prior comments. Readers may want to exit early to lock in a gain.

I'm not suggesting new positions.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short GRPN stock @ $8.40

- or -

Long Aug $8.00 PUT (GRPN1218T8) Entry $0.80

07/18/12 readers may want to start taking some money off the table
our GRPN trade is up +15.8%
07/12/12 new stop loss @ 9.05

Entry on July 09 at $8.40
Earnings Date 08/08/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.1 million
Listed on July 07, 2011


Home Inns & Hotels Management - HMIN - close: 17.45 change: +0.25

Stop Loss: 20.25
Target(s): 18.00 & 15.50
Current Gain/Loss: +11.0%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 9th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/19/12 update: HMIN also saw an oversold bounce today but the rebound stalled at short-term resistance near $18.00. Readers may want to tighten stops and/or take some money off the table early. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

HMIN hit our first target at $18.00 on July 12th. Our second target is $15.50.

Earlier Comments:
Readers may want to keep their position size small or use the options to limit their risk. The most recent data listed short interest at 17% of the 24.2 million share float.

Suggested Position: short HMIN stock @ $19.60

- or -

Long Aug $20 PUT (HMIN1218T20) Entry $1.70

07/12/12 new stop loss @ 20.25
07/12/12 1st target hit @ 18.00 (+8.2%)
1st target hit @ 18.00, option bid @ $2.50 (+47.0%)*
(option exit price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our first target was hit)
07/10/12 triggered @ 19.60

Entry on July 10 at $19.60
Earnings Date 08/09/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 284 thousand
Listed on July 09, 2011


Harley-Davidson - HOG - close: 44.78 change: +0.76

Stop Loss: 45.25
Target(s): 40.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.1%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 1st earnings
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/19/12 update: HOG is not cooperating. After hovering near support near $44 and its 200-dma the last few days the stock finally moved but it was the wrong way. The stock rallied with a +1.7% gain and almost hit our stop loss at $45.25. If there is any follow through higher tomorrow then expect HOG to hit our stop. I am not suggesting new positions.

We do not want to hold over the Aug. 1st earnings report. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for HOG is bearish with a $35.00 target.

current Position: short HOG stock @ $43.86

- or -

Long Aug $42 PUT (HOG1218T42) Entry $1.62

Entry on July 16 at $43.86
Earnings Date 08/01/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million
Listed on July 14, 2011