Editor's Note:
The U.S. market looks vulnerable to more profit taking.

We are removing PRU as a candidate. I am suggesting an early exit on ACIW on Monday. VRSK was stopped out. K was triggered.

We have updated some stop losses on our bullish candidates.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

ACI Worldwide, Inc. - ACIW - close: 44.14 change: -0.77

Stop Loss: 43.75
Target(s): 49.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.2%
Time Frame: exit prior to the July 26 earnings report.
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/21/12 update: ACIW is not cooperating. Shares have reversed into what looks like a bearish double top pattern. Now the stock is testing support near $44.00 and looks poised to breakdown. We are suggesting an early exit on Monday morning at the open.

current Position: Long ACIW stock @ $44.05

07/21/12 prepare to exit on Monday at the open
07/03/12 new stop loss @ 43.75
06/29/12 triggered @ 44.05

chart:

Entry on June 29 at $44.05
Earnings Date 07/26/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 318 thousand
Listed on June 27, 2011


Extra Space Storage - EXR - close: 31.82 change: -0.04

Stop Loss: 30.75
Target(s): 33.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.2%
Time Frame: exit prior to the July 30th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/21/12 update: EXR is still holding up reasonably well. Shares dipped toward their 10-dma on Friday before trimming its losses. The larger trend is still bullish and more aggressive traders may want to leave their stop loss under round-number support at $30.00. We are turning more cautious on the market so we're raising our stop loss on EXR to $30.75.

Our target is $33.50 but we'll plan to exit prior to the July 30th earnings report.

Suggested Position: Long EXR stock @ $31.15

07/21/12 new stop loss @ 30.75
07/09/12 triggered @ 31.15

chart:

Entry on July 09 at $31.15
Earnings Date 07/30/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
Listed on July 07, 2011


IdaCorp. - IDA - close: 43.01 change: -0.18

Stop Loss: 42.45
Target(s): 45.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.3%
Time Frame: exit prior to the early August earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/21/12 update: The rally in IDA has stalled. Shares spent the entire week consolidating sideways between short-term support near $43.00 and the $43.50 area. Given IDA's lack of performance readers may want to just go ahead and exit now. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. We will raise our stop loss up to $42.45.

current Position: Long IDA stock @ $43.15

07/21/12 raise stop loss to $42.45
07/13/12 triggered @ 43.15

chart:

Entry on July 13 at $43.15
Earnings Date 08/02/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 217 thousand
Listed on July 11, 2011


Lennar Corp. - LEN - close: 30.84 change: +0.52

Stop Loss: 29.49
Target(s): 34.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.8%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/21/12 update: Traders bought the dip on Friday with LEN bouncing from the bottom of its $30-32 trading range (actually it's more like the $29.50-32.00 range). The relative strength on Friday (+1.7%) is encouraging but I am no longer suggesting new bullish positions.

Earlier Comments:
The most recent data listed short interest at almost 22% of the 161 million share float. LEN could see a short squeeze if it shows any strength. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for LEN is bullish with a long-term $46 target.

current Position: Long LEN @ $31.40

- or -

Long Aug $32 call (LEN1218H32) Entry $1.57

07/13/12 triggered @ 31.40

chart:

Entry on July 13 at $31.40
Earnings Date 09/12/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.2 million
Listed on July 12, 2011


Papa John's Intl. Inc. - PZZA - close: 51.30 change: -1.29

Stop Loss: 48.90
Target(s): 54.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.7%
Time Frame: exit prior to the July 31st earnings report (unconfirmed)
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/21/12 update: PZZA succumbed to some profit taking after hitting new record highs earlier in the week. Broken resistance near $50.00 should be support. We will raise our stop loss up to $48.90. More conservative traders may want to use a stop loss closer to $50.00 instead. Nimble traders can look for a bounce near $50.00 as a new bullish entry point. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for PZZA is bullish with a $63 target.

current Position: Long PZZA stock @ $50.70

- or -

Long Aug $55 call (PZZA1218H50) Entry $0.55

07/21/12 new stop loss @ 48.90. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop even higher.

chart:

Entry on July 18 at $50.70
Earnings Date 07/31/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 115 thousand
Listed on July 17, 2011


Time Warner Inc. - TWX - close: 38.86 change: -0.28

Stop Loss: 37.90
Target(s): 42.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.2%
Time Frame: exit prior to the early August earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/21/12 update: TWX provided a dip as I suspected. Shares might decline into the $38.50-38.00 area if the market sees any follow through from Friday's decline. Thus, while I remain bullish on TWX, readers may want to wait for a dip or wait for a bounce from the $38.50-38.00 range before initiating positions.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for TWX is bullish with a $50 target.

current Position: Long TWX stock @ $39.35

- or -

Long Aug $38 call (TWX1218H38) Entry $1.80

07/19/12 triggered @ 39.35

chart:

Entry on July 19 at $39.35
Earnings Date 08/01/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.0 million
Listed on July 18, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

Focus Media Holdings - FMCN - close: 19.07 change: +0.12

Stop Loss: 20.10
Target(s): 15.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.6%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/21/12 update: FMCN posted a gain but the action on Friday actually looks bearish. The bounce reversed at resistance near the 10-dma. I would consider new bearish positions at this time or you can wait for a new drop under $18.50 if you want to see a little more confirmation.

Readers will want to consider limiting the size of their positions since FMCN can be such a volatile stock (or just use the options to limit how much capital you have exposed).

current Position: short FMCN stock @ $18.40

- or -

Long Aug $18 PUT (FMCN1218T18) Entry $1.50

chart:

Entry on July 17 at $18.40
Earnings Date 05/29/12
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million
Listed on July 16, 2011


Groupon, Inc. - GRPN - close: 7.40 change: +0.00

Stop Loss: 9.05
Target(s): 6.25
Current Gain/Loss: +11.9%
Time Frame: exit prior to the early August earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/21/12 update: Friday proved to be a quiet session for GRPN. The stock closed unchanged on the day. The larger trend is down but I would not be surprised to see an oversold bounce toward the 10-dma or the $8.00 level.

I am not suggesting new positions. More conservative traders may want to take profits now. We are aiming for $6.25.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short GRPN stock @ $8.40

- or -

Long Aug $8.00 PUT (GRPN1218T8) Entry $0.80

07/18/12 readers may want to start taking some money off the table
our GRPN trade is up +15.8%
07/12/12 new stop loss @ 9.05

chart:

Entry on July 09 at $8.40
Earnings Date 08/08/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.1 million
Listed on July 07, 2011


Home Inns & Hotels Management - HMIN - close: 17.00 change: -0.45

Stop Loss: 20.25
Target(s): 18.00 & 15.50
Current Gain/Loss: +13.3%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 9th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/21/12 update: It was a volatile morning for HMIN with a spike down to $16.32. Yet the stock bounced back and spent the rest of the day hugging the $17.00 level. The trend is down and we are aiming for $15.50 but more conservative traders may want to take profits now (especially if you have the put options, current bid is $3.20). I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

HMIN hit our first target at $18.00 on July 12th. Our second target is $15.50.

Earlier Comments:
Readers may want to keep their position size small or use the options to limit their risk. The most recent data listed short interest at 17% of the 24.2 million share float.

Suggested Position: short HMIN stock @ $19.60

- or -

Long Aug $20 PUT (HMIN1218T20) Entry $1.70

07/12/12 new stop loss @ 20.25
07/12/12 1st target hit @ 18.00 (+8.2%)
1st target hit @ 18.00, option bid @ $2.50 (+47.0%)*
(option exit price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our first target was hit)
07/10/12 triggered @ 19.60

chart:

Entry on July 10 at $19.60
Earnings Date 08/09/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 284 thousand
Listed on July 09, 2011


Harley-Davidson - HOG - close: 43.91 change: -0.87

Stop Loss: 45.25
Target(s): 40.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.1%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 1st earnings
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/21/12 update: Good news! There was no follow through on Thursday's rally in HOG. Shares are back to testing prior support/resistance near $44.00 and its 200-dma. Readers could use this drop as a new entry point.

We do not want to hold over the Aug. 1st earnings report. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for HOG is bearish with a $35.00 target.

current Position: short HOG stock @ $43.86

- or -

Long Aug $42 PUT (HOG1218T42) Entry $1.62

chart:

Entry on July 16 at $43.86
Earnings Date 08/01/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million
Listed on July 14, 2011


Kellogg Co. - K - close: 47.64 change: -0.43

Stop Loss: 48.55
Target(s): 44.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.2%
Time Frame: exit prior to Aug. 2nd earnings
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/21/12 update: Our new trade on K has been triggered. Shares broke down under key support near $48.00. Investors are worried about rising commodity (mostly corn) prices on K's profit margins. We had a trigger to launch positions at $47.75 and I would still consider new bearish positions now.

Suggested Position: short K stock @ $47.75

- or -

Long Aug $47.50 PUT (K1218T47.5) Entry $0.85

07/20/12 triggered @ 47.75

chart:

Entry on July 20 at $47.75
Earnings Date 08/02/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million
Listed on July 19, 2011


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Prudential Financial - PRU - close: 46.70 change: -1.87

Stop Loss: 47.49
Target(s): 53.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 1st earnings report.
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
07/21/12 update: PRU spent a week consolidating sideways under resistance near $49.50 and then broke down sharply on Friday with a -3.8% decline.

Our trade has not opened and we are removing PRU as a candidate.

Trigger @ 49.50

Our trade did not open.

07/21/12 removed from the play list. Trade did not open.

chart:

Entry on July xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 08/01/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million
Listed on July 14, 2011


Verisk Analytics - VRSK - close: 49.55 change: -0.89

Stop Loss: 49.75
Target(s): 54.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.9%
Time Frame: exit prior to the July 31st earnings report (unconfirmed)
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/21/12 update: The market sell-off on Friday hit VRSK hard and shares fell -1.7%. The stock broke down under short-term support at $50.00 and the 10-dma to hit our stop loss at $49.75.

closed Position: Long VRSK stock @ $50.72 exit $49.75 (-1.9%)

chart:

Entry on July 18 at $50.72
Earnings Date 07/31/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 874 thousand
Listed on July 17, 2011