Editor's Note:
Worries deepen over Spain this past weekend and stocks sink on Monday morning. Most of the market manages to trim their losses.

We closed ACIW as planned.

IDA and TWX were stopped out. HPQ and MGM were triggered.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Extra Space Storage - EXR - close: 31.48 change: -0.34

Stop Loss: 30.75
Target(s): 33.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.1%
Time Frame: exit prior to the July 30th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/23/12 update: EXR was downgraded this morning. That may have exaggerated the gap down at the open this morning. Shares opened at $31.25 but managed to pare its losses by the close. The stock failed to close back above its 10-dma. The $31.00 level should be short-term support but I am not suggesting new positions.

Our target is $33.50 but we'll plan to exit prior to the July 30th earnings report.

Suggested Position: Long EXR stock @ $31.15

07/21/12 new stop loss @ 30.75
07/09/12 triggered @ 31.15

Entry on July 09 at $31.15
Earnings Date 07/30/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
Listed on July 07, 2011


Lennar Corp. - LEN - close: 30.84 change: +0.00

Stop Loss: 29.49
Target(s): 34.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.8%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/23/12 update: Some of the housing stocks were showing relative strength today. LEN wasn't quite so lucky but shares did close unchanged on the session, which is better than the S&P 500's -0.8% decline. I remain cautious here and we are not suggesting new positions.

Earlier Comments:
The most recent data listed short interest at almost 22% of the 161 million share float. LEN could see a short squeeze if it shows any strength. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for LEN is bullish with a long-term $46 target.

current Position: Long LEN @ $31.40

- or -

Long Aug $32 call (LEN1218H32) Entry $1.57

07/13/12 triggered @ 31.40

Entry on July 13 at $31.40
Earnings Date 09/12/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.2 million
Listed on July 12, 2011


Papa John's Intl. Inc. - PZZA - close: 50.14 change: -1.16

Stop Loss: 48.90
Target(s): 54.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.1%
Time Frame: exit prior to the July 31st earnings report (unconfirmed)
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/23/12 update: Ouch! It's been a sharp two-day slide n PZZA. Shares have given up about half of the prior six-day rally. Over the weekend I suggested we use a dip near $50.00 as a new entry point and here it is, although given the market's slide you may want to buy a bounce instead.

current Position: Long PZZA stock @ $50.70

- or -

Long Aug $55 call (PZZA1218H50) Entry $0.55

07/21/12 new stop loss @ 48.90. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop even higher.

Entry on July 18 at $50.70
Earnings Date 07/31/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 115 thousand
Listed on July 17, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

Focus Media Holdings - FMCN - close: 18.65 change: -0.42

Stop Loss: 20.10
Target(s): 15.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.4%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/23/12 update: FMCN continues to show volatility. The stock gapped down and churned sideways to close the session -2.2%. The low today was $18.28. If you want to see more confirmation then consider waiting for a drop under $18.25 before initiating positions.

Readers will want to consider limiting the size of their positions since FMCN can be such a volatile stock (or just use the options to limit how much capital you have exposed).

current Position: short FMCN stock @ $18.40

- or -

Long Aug $18 PUT (FMCN1218T18) Entry $1.50

Entry on July 17 at $18.40
Earnings Date 05/29/12
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million
Listed on July 16, 2011


Groupon, Inc. - GRPN - close: 7.38 change: -0.02

Stop Loss: 9.05
Target(s): 6.25
Current Gain/Loss: +12.1%
Time Frame: exit prior to the early August earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/23/12 update: GRPN gapped open lower and dipped to $7.06 before paring its losses. The trend is down but GRPN remains oversold here and due for a bounce.

I am not suggesting new positions. More conservative traders may want to take profits now. We are aiming for $6.25.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short GRPN stock @ $8.40

- or -

Long Aug $8.00 PUT (GRPN1218T8) Entry $0.80

07/18/12 readers may want to start taking some money off the table
our GRPN trade is up +15.8%
07/12/12 new stop loss @ 9.05

Entry on July 09 at $8.40
Earnings Date 08/08/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.1 million
Listed on July 07, 2011


Home Inns & Hotels Management - HMIN - close: 16.86 change: -0.14

Stop Loss: 20.25
Target(s): 18.00 & 15.50
Current Gain/Loss: +14.0%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 9th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/23/12 update: HMIN lost -0.8% and closed under the $17.00 level for the first time in years.

The trend is down and we are aiming for $15.50 but more conservative traders may want to take profits now. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

HMIN hit our first target at $18.00 on July 12th. Our second target is $15.50.

Earlier Comments:
Readers may want to keep their position size small or use the options to limit their risk. The most recent data listed short interest at 17% of the 24.2 million share float.

Suggested Position: short HMIN stock @ $19.60

- or -

Long Aug $20 PUT (HMIN1218T20) Entry $1.70

07/12/12 new stop loss @ 20.25
07/12/12 1st target hit @ 18.00 (+8.2%)
1st target hit @ 18.00, option bid @ $2.50 (+47.0%)*
(option exit price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our first target was hit)
07/10/12 triggered @ 19.60

Entry on July 10 at $19.60
Earnings Date 08/09/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 284 thousand
Listed on July 09, 2011


Harley-Davidson - HOG - close: 43.24 change: -0.67

Stop Loss: 45.25
Target(s): 40.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.4%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 1st earnings
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/23/12 update: The gap down at the open helped HOG tag a new relative low before trimming its losses. I would still consider new positions but keep in mind we do not want to hold over the August 1st earnings report.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for HOG is bearish with a $35.00 target.

current Position: short HOG stock @ $43.86

- or -

Long Aug $42 PUT (HOG1218T42) Entry $1.62

Entry on July 16 at $43.86
Earnings Date 08/01/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million
Listed on July 14, 2011


Hewlett Packard - HPQ - close: 18.30 change: -0.31

Stop Loss: 20.15
Target(s): 16.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.4%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/23/12 update: Our new HPQ trade is open. We wanted to open positions at $18.40 but HPQ gapped open lower at $18.38 this morning. Shares hit $18.00 before bouncing back. Nimble traders might want to try and wait and launch positions in the $18.50-19.00 area. The 10-dma near $19.01 should be overhead resistance.

Our target is $16.50 but more aggressive traders could aim lower but the 2004 low was $16.08 so the $16.00 level could be support.
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for HPQ is bearish with a $7.00 target.

Suggested Position: short HPQ stock @ 18.38

- or -

Long Aug $18 PUT (HPQ1218T18) Entry $0.54

07/23/12 trade opened on gap down at $18.38. Trigger was $18.40

Entry on July 23 at $18.38
Earnings Date 08/22/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 18.0 million
Listed on July 21, 2011


Kellogg Co. - K - close: 47.15 change: -0.49

Stop Loss: 48.55
Target(s): 44.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.3%
Time Frame: exit prior to Aug. 2nd earnings
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/23/12 update: Shares of K continue to plunge. The stock lost another -1% today and set a new multi-year closing low. Readers may want to wait for a bounce before launching new positions.

current Position: short K stock @ $47.75

- or -

Long Aug $47.50 PUT (K1218T47.5) Entry $0.85

07/20/12 triggered @ 47.75

Entry on July 20 at $47.75
Earnings Date 08/02/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million
Listed on July 19, 2011


MGM Resorts - MGM - close: 9.77 change: -0.01

Stop Loss: 10.51
Target(s): 8.10
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.8%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/23/12 update: Hmm... our new MGM trade is open but it's not off to the greatest start. Shares spiked down with the market's big decline this morning. Our trigger was hit at $9.69. Yet the stock bounced at $9.53 and rallied back to breakeven. The larger trend is still down but readers may want to look for a failed rally near $10.00 or a new drop under $9.70 before initiating positions.

Looking at a weekly chart you will see significant support near $9.00. Yet 2011 saw a spike down to $7.40 and the Point & Figure chart for MGM is bearish with a $5.00 target. We are aiming for $8.10.

current Position: short MGM stock @ $9.69

- or -

Long Aug $9.00 PUT (MGM1218T9) Entry $0.27

07/23/12 triggered @ 9.69

Entry on July 23 at $9.69
Earnings Date 08/07/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.9 million
Listed on July 21, 2011


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

ACI Worldwide, Inc. - ACIW - close: 43.73 change: -0.41

Stop Loss: 43.75
Target(s): 49.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.4%
Time Frame: exit prior to the July 26 earnings report.
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/23/12 update: We thought ACIW looked weak on Friday and suggested readers exit positions at the open on Monday morning. Unfortunately the stock gapped open lower at $43.44 this morning.

closed Position: Long ACIW stock @ $44.05 exit $43.44 (-1.4%)

07/23/12 exit at the open
07/21/12 prepare to exit on Monday at the open
07/03/12 new stop loss @ 43.75
06/29/12 triggered @ 44.05

chart:

Entry on June 29 at $44.05
Earnings Date 07/26/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 318 thousand
Listed on June 27, 2011


IdaCorp. - IDA - close: 42.44 change: -0.57

Stop Loss: 42.45
Target(s): 45.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.6%
Time Frame: exit prior to the early August earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/23/12 update: IDA broke down after a week of consolidating sideways. Shares hit our stop loss at $42.45.

closed Position: Long IDA stock @ $43.15 exit $42.45 (-1.6%)

07/23/12 stopped out at $42.45
07/21/12 raise stop loss to $42.45
07/13/12 triggered @ 43.15

chart:

Entry on July 13 at $43.15
Earnings Date 08/02/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 217 thousand
Listed on July 11, 2011


Time Warner Inc. - TWX - close: 37.49 change: -1.37

Stop Loss: 37.90
Target(s): 42.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.7%
Time Frame: exit prior to the early August earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/23/12 update: It was a dreadful weekend for TWX's Warner Brothers division with the terrible shooting in Aurora, CO at the Batman premier. Yet the tragedy failed to stop movie goers and the new film is estimated to have pulled in $160 million over the weekend.

I can't find any specific news to account for the underperformance in TWX shares today. The stock lost -3.5% and hit our stop loss at $37.90.

closed Position: Long TWX stock @ $39.35 exit $37.90 (-3.7%)

- or -

Aug $38 call (TWX1218H38) Entry $1.80 exit $0.92 (-48.8%)

07/23/12 stopped out at $37.90
07/19/12 triggered @ 39.35

chart:

Entry on July 19 at $39.35
Earnings Date 08/01/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.0 million
Listed on July 18, 2011