Editor's Note:
Our bearish plays continue to outperform. Readers may want to start taking profits.

I am suggesting an early exit on our bullish PZZA trade.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Extra Space Storage - EXR - close: 31.37 change: -0.11

Stop Loss: 30.75
Target(s): 33.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.7%
Time Frame: exit prior to the July 30th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/24/12 update: EXR is holding up reasonably well. It is worth noting that shares have struggled to close back above their 10-dma the last two days. This is short-term bearish. If EXR breaks down under short-term support near $31.00 we will likely get stopped out.

Our target is $33.50 but we'll plan to exit prior to the July 30th earnings report.

Suggested Position: Long EXR stock @ $31.15

07/21/12 new stop loss @ 30.75
07/09/12 triggered @ 31.15

Entry on July 09 at $31.15
Earnings Date 07/30/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
Listed on July 07, 2011


Lennar Corp. - LEN - close: 30.26 change: -0.58

Stop Loss: 29.49
Target(s): 34.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.7%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/24/12 update: The sideways consolidation in LEN is narrowing. That is normally a hint that the stock is poised to breakout one way or the other soon. If shares do break lower we should be quickly stopped out at $29.49. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
The most recent data listed short interest at almost 22% of the 161 million share float. LEN could see a short squeeze if it shows any strength. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for LEN is bullish with a long-term $46 target.

current Position: Long LEN @ $31.40

- or -

Long Aug $32 call (LEN1218H32) Entry $1.57

07/13/12 triggered @ 31.40

Entry on July 13 at $31.40
Earnings Date 09/12/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.2 million
Listed on July 12, 2011


Papa John's Intl. Inc. - PZZA - close: 49.67 change: -0.47

Stop Loss: 48.90
Target(s): 54.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.0%
Time Frame: exit prior to the July 31st earnings report (unconfirmed)
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/24/12 update: Hmm... the action in PZZA today is worrisome. Shares broke down and closed under what should have been support at the $50.00 mark and the 10-dma. I am suggesting we go ahead and exit positions at the open tomorrow morning but I would keep PZZA on your watch list should the market turn around.

current Position: Long PZZA stock @ $50.70

- or -

Long Aug $55 call (PZZA1218H50) Entry $0.55

07/24/12 prepare to exit at the open tomorrow morning
07/21/12 new stop loss @ 48.90. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop even higher.

Entry on July 18 at $50.70
Earnings Date 07/31/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 115 thousand
Listed on July 17, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

Focus Media Holdings - FMCN - close: 18.92 change: +0.27

Stop Loss: 20.10
Target(s): 15.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.8%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/24/12 update: FMCN showed a little strength today with a +1.4% gain. I would blame this on reaction to BIDU's earnings report. FMCN is in a different industry but the rally in BIDU lifted most of the Chinese internet/media stocks. I would look for a new drop under $18.25 as another entry point for bearish positions.

Readers will want to consider limiting the size of their positions since FMCN can be such a volatile stock (or just use the options to limit how much capital you have exposed).

current Position: short FMCN stock @ $18.40

- or -

Long Aug $18 PUT (FMCN1218T18) Entry $1.50

Entry on July 17 at $18.40
Earnings Date 05/29/12
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million
Listed on July 16, 2011


Groupon, Inc. - GRPN - close: 7.24 change: -0.14

Stop Loss: 9.05
Target(s): 6.25
Current Gain/Loss: +13.8%
Time Frame: exit prior to the early August earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/24/12 update: GRPN's attempt to bounce failed near the $7.50 level and shares settled with a -1.8% decline. A breakdown past short-term support near $7.00 could see GRPN accelerate lower again.

I am not suggesting new positions. More conservative traders may want to take profits now. We are aiming for $6.25.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short GRPN stock @ $8.40

- or -

Long Aug $8.00 PUT (GRPN1218T8) Entry $0.80

07/18/12 readers may want to start taking some money off the table
our GRPN trade is up +15.8%
07/12/12 new stop loss @ 9.05

Entry on July 09 at $8.40
Earnings Date 08/08/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.1 million
Listed on July 07, 2011


Home Inns & Hotels Management - HMIN - close: 17.01 change: +0.15

Stop Loss: 20.25
Target(s): 18.00 & 15.50
Current Gain/Loss: +14.0%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 9th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/24/12 update: HMIN, another Chinese stock, saw a minor bounce. The stock essentially churned sideways near $17.00. The $18.00 level should be the next overhead resistance. There is no change from my prior comments.

The trend is down and we are aiming for $15.50 but more conservative traders may want to take profits now. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

HMIN hit our first target at $18.00 on July 12th. Our second target is $15.50.

Earlier Comments:
Readers may want to keep their position size small or use the options to limit their risk. The most recent data listed short interest at 17% of the 24.2 million share float.

Suggested Position: short HMIN stock @ $19.60

- or -

Long Aug $20 PUT (HMIN1218T20) Entry $1.70

07/12/12 new stop loss @ 20.25
07/12/12 1st target hit @ 18.00 (+8.2%)
1st target hit @ 18.00, option bid @ $2.50 (+47.0%)*
(option exit price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our first target was hit)
07/10/12 triggered @ 19.60

Entry on July 10 at $19.60
Earnings Date 08/09/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 284 thousand
Listed on July 09, 2011


Harley-Davidson - HOG - close: 42.39 change: -0.85

Stop Loss: 45.25
Target(s): 40.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.4%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 1st earnings
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/24/12 update: HOG fell to the next level of support near $42.00 and its 300-dma before trying to pare its losses. The stock settled with a -1.9% decline. The stock should have new short-term resistance at the $43.00 mark and the $44.00 mark. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for HOG is bearish with a $35.00 target.

current Position: short HOG stock @ $43.86

- or -

Long Aug $42 PUT (HOG1218T42) Entry $1.62

Entry on July 16 at $43.86
Earnings Date 08/01/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million
Listed on July 14, 2011


Hewlett Packard - HPQ - close: 17.99 change: -0.31

Stop Loss: 20.15
Target(s): 16.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.1%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/24/12 update: That's not a typo. HPQ lost 31 cents two days in a row. This stock traded under the $18.00 level for the first time since 2004. I don't see any changes from my prior comments.

Our target is $16.50 but more aggressive traders could aim lower but the 2004 low was $16.08 so the $16.00 level could be support.
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for HPQ is bearish with a $7.00 target.

Suggested Position: short HPQ stock @ 18.38

- or -

Long Aug $18 PUT (HPQ1218T18) Entry $0.54

07/23/12 trade opened on gap down at $18.38. Trigger was $18.40

Entry on July 23 at $18.38
Earnings Date 08/22/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 18.0 million
Listed on July 21, 2011


Kellogg Co. - K - close: 46.53 change: -0.62

Stop Loss: 48.55
Target(s): 44.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.6%
Time Frame: exit prior to Aug. 2nd earnings
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/24/12 update: Shares of K seem to be accelerating lower. The stock lost -1.3% today and closed at new multi-year lows. Please note that the $46.00 level could be short-term support. K is oversold here with a sharp seven-day decline. It might be time for a bounce. I would seriously consider taking profits on our August put right here (current bid $1.40).

current Position: short K stock @ $47.75

- or -

Long Aug $47.50 PUT (K1218T47.5) Entry $0.85

07/20/12 triggered @ 47.75

Entry on July 20 at $47.75
Earnings Date 08/02/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million
Listed on July 19, 2011


MGM Resorts - MGM - close: 9.40 change: -0.37

Stop Loss: 10.51
Target(s): 8.10
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/24/12 update: The breakdown in MGM continues with a -3.7% plunge today. The close under $9.50 is certainly short-term bearish. I want to remind readers about my earlier comments on the $9.00 level. If you're trading the August puts you might want to take some money off the table as MGM gets closer to the $9.00 mark.

Earlier Comments:
Looking at a weekly chart you will see significant support near $9.00. Yet 2011 saw a spike down to $7.40 and the Point & Figure chart for MGM is bearish with a $5.00 target. We are aiming for $8.10.

current Position: short MGM stock @ $9.69

- or -

Long Aug $9.00 PUT (MGM1218T9) Entry $0.27

07/23/12 triggered @ 9.69

Entry on July 23 at $9.69
Earnings Date 08/07/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.9 million
Listed on July 21, 2011


Red Robin Gourmet Burgers - RRGB - close: 28.65 change: -1.15

Stop Loss: 31.05
Target(s): 26.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.0%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/24/12 update: Our new RRGB trade is off to a strong start. Shares opened at $29.85. There was a brief spike to $30.64 but the rally reversed near its 30-dma and RRGB plunged to a -3.8% decline.

Our target is $26.00. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for RRGB is bearish with a $22.00 target.

current Position: short RRGB stock @ $29.85

- or -

Long Aug $30 PUT (RRGB1218T30) Entry $1.60

Entry on July 24 at $29.85
Earnings Date 08/09/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 170 thousand
Listed on July 23, 2011