Editor's Note:
The June New Home sales number was disappointing and sparked a sell-off across the builder industry.

Our LEN trade was stopped out. Plus, we closed our PZZA trade as planned.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Extra Space Storage - EXR - close: 31.51 change: +0.14

Stop Loss: 30.75
Target(s): 33.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.2%
Time Frame: exit prior to the July 30th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/25/12 update: It was another quiet day for EXR. Traders seem to be buying the dips but the stock continues to struggle trying to get past the simple 10-dma. We don't have much time left. We want to exit prior to the July 30th earnings report.

Suggested Position: Long EXR stock @ $31.15

07/21/12 new stop loss @ 30.75
07/09/12 triggered @ 31.15

Entry on July 09 at $31.15
Earnings Date 07/30/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
Listed on July 07, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

CNH Global NV - CNH - close: 35.45 change: +0.92

Stop Loss: 36.05
Target(s): 30.25
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 1st earnings report
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
07/25/12 update: Hmm... we might want to abort this new bearish play on CNH if CAT's earnings are a sign of things to come. I cautioned readers that Caterpillar's report could have a big impact on shares of CNH. This morning CAT reported earnings that beat estimates on both the top and bottom line. Plus, CAT's management raised their 2012 guidance. This news helped push CNH toward $37 but the rally began to fade. Both CAT and CNH saw traders selling into the news.

Currently our plan is unchanged. We're waiting for a new relative low but if CNH doesn't see any follow through lower tomorrow we might drop it.

I am suggesting a trigger to open bearish positions at $34.25. If triggered our target is $30.25. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CNH is bearish with a $26.00 target.

Trigger @ 34.25

Suggested Position: short CNH stock @ (trigger)

Entry on July xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 08/01/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 528 thousand
Listed on July 24, 2011


Focus Media Holdings - FMCN - close: 18.54 change: -0.38

Stop Loss: 20.10
Target(s): 15.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.8%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/25/12 update: FMCN has been churning sideways for the last six days in a row. I am still expecting new lows but I would look for a new drop under $18.25 as another entry point for bearish positions.

Readers will want to consider limiting the size of their positions since FMCN can be such a volatile stock (or just use the options to limit how much capital you have exposed).

current Position: short FMCN stock @ $18.40

- or -

Long Aug $18 PUT (FMCN1218T18) Entry $1.50

Entry on July 17 at $18.40
Earnings Date 05/29/12
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million
Listed on July 16, 2011


Groupon, Inc. - GRPN - close: 7.24 change: -0.00

Stop Loss: 9.05
Target(s): 6.25
Current Gain/Loss: +13.8%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 13th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/25/12 update: It was another quiet day for GRPN. The stock closed unchanged on the session. Yet if you look at an intraday chart and view the last few days you'll notice that the intraday highs are getting lower. Traders are selling into strength. A breakdown past short-term support near $7.00 could see GRPN accelerate lower again.

I am not suggesting new positions. More conservative traders may want to take profits now. We are aiming for $6.25.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short GRPN stock @ $8.40

- or -

Long Aug $8.00 PUT (GRPN1218T8) Entry $0.80

07/18/12 readers may want to start taking some money off the table
our GRPN trade is up +15.8%
07/12/12 new stop loss @ 9.05

Entry on July 09 at $8.40
Earnings Date 08/13/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.1 million
Listed on July 07, 2011


Home Inns & Hotels Management - HMIN - close: 17.20 change: +0.19

Stop Loss: 20.25
Target(s): 18.00 & 15.50
Current Gain/Loss: +12.2%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 9th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/25/12 update: HMIN bounced again. This oversold bounce is now two days old. So far the rebound has been pretty minor. There is no change from my prior comments. The $18.00 level should be the next overhead resistance.

We are aiming for $15.50 but more conservative traders may want to take profits now. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

HMIN hit our first target at $18.00 on July 12th. Our second target is $15.50.

Earlier Comments:
Readers may want to keep their position size small or use the options to limit their risk. The most recent data listed short interest at 17% of the 24.2 million share float.

Suggested Position: short HMIN stock @ $19.60

- or -

Long Aug $20 PUT (HMIN1218T20) Entry $1.70

07/12/12 new stop loss @ 20.25
07/12/12 1st target hit @ 18.00 (+8.2%)
1st target hit @ 18.00, option bid @ $2.50 (+47.0%)*
(option exit price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our first target was hit)
07/10/12 triggered @ 19.60

Entry on July 10 at $19.60
Earnings Date 08/09/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 284 thousand
Listed on July 09, 2011


Harley-Davidson - HOG - close: 42.07 change: -0.32

Stop Loss: 45.25
Target(s): 40.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.1%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 1st earnings
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/25/12 update: HOG spent Wednesday's session hovering near support at $42.00 and its simple 300-dma. If the market bounces then HOG might rebound to test overhead resistance near $43.00 or near the $44.00 mark (both levels were prior support). I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for HOG is bearish with a $35.00 target.

current Position: short HOG stock @ $43.86

- or -

Long Aug $42 PUT (HOG1218T42) Entry $1.62

Entry on July 16 at $43.86
Earnings Date 08/01/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million
Listed on July 14, 2011


Hewlett Packard - HPQ - close: 17.78 change: -0.21

Stop Loss: 20.15
Target(s): 16.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.3%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 22nd earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/25/12 update: HPQ continues to underperform. Shares tagged another new multi-year low. Readers may want to start adjusting their stop loss lower.

Our target is $16.50 but more aggressive traders could aim lower but the 2004 low was $16.08 so the $16.00 level could be support. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for HPQ is bearish with a $7.00 target.

Suggested Position: short HPQ stock @ 18.38

- or -

Long Aug $18 PUT (HPQ1218T18) Entry $0.54

07/23/12 trade opened on gap down at $18.38. Trigger was $18.40

Entry on July 23 at $18.38
Earnings Date 08/22/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 18.0 million
Listed on July 21, 2011


Kellogg Co. - K - close: 46.51 change: -0.02

Stop Loss: 48.55
Target(s): 44.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.6%
Time Frame: exit prior to Aug. 2nd earnings
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/25/12 update: Wednesday was a non-event for shares of K. The stock churned sideways in the $46.50-47.00 zone. The stock is oversold so the fact that shares did not see a strong oversold bounce is a positive sign for the bears.

I am not suggesting new positions. Readers will want to seriously consider taking profits on our August put right here (current bid $1.40, that's +64%).

current Position: short K stock @ $47.75

- or -

Long Aug $47.50 PUT (K1218T47.5) Entry $0.85

07/25/12 readers may want to consider taking profits early on the August put. Current bid is $1.40
07/20/12 triggered @ 47.75

Entry on July 20 at $47.75
Earnings Date 08/02/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million
Listed on July 19, 2011


MGM Resorts - MGM - close: 9.20 change: -0.20

Stop Loss: 10.51
Target(s): 8.10
Current Gain/Loss: + 5.1%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 7th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/25/12 update: MGM underperformed the market again. Wednesday's session produced a -2.1% drop and a new low for 2012. I am repeating my warning that the $9.00 level could be support. If you're trading the August puts you might want to take some money off the table as MGM gets closer to the $9.00 mark.

Earlier Comments:
Looking at a weekly chart you will see significant support near $9.00. Yet 2011 saw a spike down to $7.40 and the Point & Figure chart for MGM is bearish with a $5.00 target. We are aiming for $8.10.

current Position: short MGM stock @ $9.69

- or -

Long Aug $9.00 PUT (MGM1218T9) Entry $0.27

07/23/12 triggered @ 9.69

Entry on July 23 at $9.69
Earnings Date 08/07/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.9 million
Listed on July 21, 2011


Red Robin Gourmet Burgers - RRGB - close: 28.09 change: -0.56

Stop Loss: 31.05
Target(s): 26.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 5.9%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/25/12 update: The sell-off in RRGB continues and shares hit new six-month lows. The close under the June low is definitely bearish but it's worth noting that RRGB is starting to look a little short-term oversold here. I would not be surprised to see a bounce soon. Readers may want to adjust their stops closer to $30.00.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for RRGB is bearish with a $22.00 target.

current Position: short RRGB stock @ $29.85

- or -

Long Aug $30 PUT (RRGB1218T30) Entry $1.60

Entry on July 24 at $29.85
Earnings Date 08/09/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 170 thousand
Listed on July 23, 2011


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Lennar Corp. - LEN - close: 29.04 change: -1.22

Stop Loss: 29.49
Target(s): 34.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 6.1%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/25/12 update: The government said new home sales in June fell -8.4% from May. The pace of sales fell to an annual rate of 350,000 when analysts had been expecting 370,000. This news sparked a sell-off across the homebuilders. Shares of LEN broke down from their trading range and hit our stop loss at $29.49.

closed Position: Long LEN @ $31.40 exit $29.49 (-6.1%)

- or -

Aug $32 call (LEN1218H32) Entry $1.57 exit $0.45 (-71.3%)

07/25/12 stopped out
07/13/12 triggered @ 31.40

chart:

Entry on July 13 at $31.40
Earnings Date 09/12/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.2 million
Listed on July 12, 2011


Papa John's Intl. Inc. - PZZA - close: 50.84 change: +1.17

Stop Loss: 48.90
Target(s): 54.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.3%
Time Frame: exit prior to the July 31st earnings report (unconfirmed)
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/25/12 update: PZZA outperformed the market today with a +2.3% bounce. The sharp rally this morning looks like a move on an analyst upgrade but it wasn't PZZA that got upgraded today. It was rival Dominos (DPZ) that was added to Goldman Sach's (GS) conviction buy list.

We had already decided to exit PZZA at the open this morning due to yesterday's breakdown under what should have been support at $50.00. PZZA gapped higher at $50.06.

closed Position: Long PZZA stock @ $50.70 exit $50.06 (-1.3%)

- or -

Aug $55 call (PZZA1218H50) Entry $0.55 exit $0.25 (-54.5%)

07/25/12 closed at the open this morning
07/24/12 prepare to exit at the open tomorrow morning
07/21/12 new stop loss @ 48.90. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop even higher.

chart:

Entry on July 18 at $50.70
Earnings Date 07/31/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 115 thousand
Listed on July 17, 2011