Editor's Note:
Shares of Groupon (GRPN) ignored the market rally and sank to new lows.

Meanwhile most of the market managed a bounce today.

Our RGR trade has been triggered. We have removed CNH.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Extra Space Storage - EXR - close: 31.94 change: +0.43

Stop Loss: 30.75
Target(s): 33.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.5%
Time Frame: exit prior to the July 30th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/26/12 update: Today's widespread market rally helped EXR push past its 10-dma. More conservative traders might want to inch up their stop loss closer to $31.00. We don't have much time left. We want to exit prior to the July 30th earnings report.

Suggested Position: Long EXR stock @ $31.15

07/21/12 new stop loss @ 30.75
07/09/12 triggered @ 31.15

Entry on July 09 at $31.15
Earnings Date 07/30/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
Listed on July 07, 2011


Sturm Ruger & Co - RGR - close: 45.63 change: +1.87

Stop Loss: 43.45
Target(s): 49.00
Current Gain/Loss: +1.2%
Time Frame: exit prior the Aug. 1st earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/26/12 update: Our new trade on RGR has been triggered. The stock really outperformed the market today with a +4.2% gain. That was enough to push RGR past resistance at $45.00. Our trigger was hit at $45.10. There is a good chance RGR could see a short squeeze higher.

The most recent data listed short interest at 30% of the small 17.4 million share float.

This is a short-term trade. We do not want to hold over the earnings announcement. If expectations are already high there is a risk RGR could disappoint. RGR reports earnings on Aug. 1st, after the closing bell.

current Position: Long RGR stock @ $45.10

- or -

Long Aug $45 call (RGR1218H45) Entry $2.60

07/26/12 triggered @ 45.10

Entry on July 26 at $45.10
Earnings Date 08/01/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 479 thousand
Listed on July 25, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

Focus Media Holdings - FMCN - close: 18.67 change: +0.13

Stop Loss: 20.10
Target(s): 15.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.5%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/26/12 update: FMCN ignored the market's rally today. Shares continue to churn sideways. I would look for a new drop under $18.25 as another entry point for bearish positions.

Readers will want to consider limiting the size of their positions since FMCN can be such a volatile stock (or just use the options to limit how much capital you have exposed).

current Position: short FMCN stock @ $18.40

- or -

Long Aug $18 PUT (FMCN1218T18) Entry $1.50

Entry on July 17 at $18.40
Earnings Date 05/29/12
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million
Listed on July 16, 2011


General Motors - GM - close: 19.11 change: +0.31

Stop Loss: 19.65
Target(s): 17.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.5%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 2nd earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/26/12 update: GM kept pace with the S&P 500 today by rising +1.6%. The stock actually gapped open higher at $19.02 before swooning intraday. It looks like shares could test short-term resistance at $19.25 soon. Readers may want to wait for this bounce to fail before launching positions. Just remember our time frame. GM reports earnings on Aug. 2nd, before the opening bell.

current Position: short GM stock @ $19.02

- or -

Long Aug $18 PUT (GM1218T18) Entry $0.42

Entry on July 26 at $19.02
Earnings Date 08/02/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.7 million
Listed on July 25, 2011


Groupon, Inc. - GRPN - close: 6.61 change: -0.63

Stop Loss: 9.05
Target(s): 6.25
Current Gain/Loss: +21.3%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 13th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/26/12 update: GRPN was downgraded again today. The news helped spark a -8.7% plunge in the stock price. Readers may want to take profits now. The newsletter's exit target is $6.25.

I am not suggesting new positions.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short GRPN stock @ $8.40

- or -

Long Aug $8.00 PUT (GRPN1218T8) Entry $0.80

07/18/12 readers may want to start taking some money off the table
our GRPN trade is up +15.8%
07/12/12 new stop loss @ 9.05

Entry on July 09 at $8.40
Earnings Date 08/13/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.1 million
Listed on July 07, 2011


Home Inns & Hotels Management - HMIN - close: 17.65 change: +0.45

Stop Loss: 20.25
Target(s): 18.00 & 15.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 9.9%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 9th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/26/12 update: The oversold bounce continues for HMIN. Shares are up three days in a row. The stock is nearing what should be overhead resistance at its simple 10-dma (17.70) and the $18.00 level. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

HMIN hit our first target at $18.00 on July 12th.
Our second target is $15.50.

Earlier Comments:
Readers may want to keep their position size small or use the options to limit their risk. The most recent data listed short interest at 17% of the 24.2 million share float.

Suggested Position: short HMIN stock @ $19.60

- or -

Long Aug $20 PUT (HMIN1218T20) Entry $1.70

07/12/12 new stop loss @ 20.25
07/12/12 1st target hit @ 18.00 (+8.2%)
1st target hit @ 18.00, option bid @ $2.50 (+47.0%)*
(option exit price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our first target was hit)
07/10/12 triggered @ 19.60

Entry on July 10 at $19.60
Earnings Date 08/09/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 284 thousand
Listed on July 09, 2011


Harley-Davidson - HOG - close: 43.20 change: +1.13

Stop Loss: 45.25
Target(s): 40.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.5%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 1st earnings
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/26/12 update: The bounce in HOG stalled at its 10-dma. If this rebound continues the stock should find additional resistance near $44.00 and its 200-dma. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. We do not want to hold over the August 1st earnings report.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for HOG is bearish with a $35.00 target.

current Position: short HOG stock @ $43.86

- or -

Long Aug $42 PUT (HOG1218T42) Entry $1.62

Entry on July 16 at $43.86
Earnings Date 08/01/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million
Listed on July 14, 2011


Hewlett Packard - HPQ - close: 18.01 change: +0.23

Stop Loss: 20.15
Target(s): 16.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.0%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 22nd earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/26/12 update: The market's widespread gains helped HPQ produce a +1.2% bounce. Shares have essentially churned sideways in the $18.25-17.75 zone over the last three days. I don't see any changes from my prior comments. Readers may want to start adjusting their stop loss lower.

Our target is $16.50 but more aggressive traders could aim lower but the 2004 low was $16.08 so the $16.00 level could be support. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for HPQ is bearish with a $7.00 target.

Suggested Position: short HPQ stock @ 18.38

- or -

Long Aug $18 PUT (HPQ1218T18) Entry $0.54

07/23/12 trade opened on gap down at $18.38. Trigger was $18.40

Entry on July 23 at $18.38
Earnings Date 08/22/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 18.0 million
Listed on July 21, 2011


Kellogg Co. - K - close: 46.61 change: +0.10

Stop Loss: 48.55
Target(s): 44.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.4%
Time Frame: exit prior to Aug. 2nd earnings
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/26/12 update: Kellogg popped higher this morning but the rally ran out of steam. Shares settled with a 10-cent gain as traders sold into strength.

I am not suggesting new positions.

current Position: short K stock @ $47.75

- or -

Long Aug $47.50 PUT (K1218T47.5) Entry $0.85

07/25/12 readers may want to consider taking profits early on the August put. Current bid is $1.40
07/20/12 triggered @ 47.75

Entry on July 20 at $47.75
Earnings Date 08/02/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million
Listed on July 19, 2011


MGM Resorts - MGM - close: 9.22 change: +0.02

Stop Loss: 10.51
Target(s): 8.10
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.9%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 7th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/26/12 update: Be careful here. I cautioned readers that the $9.00 level could be support. Sure enough, MGM dipped to $9.00 and bounced. Now the larger trend is still bearish but MGM could easily bounce back to the simple 10-dma (near 9.75) before rolling over again.

I am not suggesting new positions. Cautious traders may want to take profits now.

Earlier Comments:
Looking at a weekly chart you will see significant support near $9.00. Yet 2011 saw a spike down to $7.40 and the Point & Figure chart for MGM is bearish with a $5.00 target. We are aiming for $8.10.

current Position: short MGM stock @ $9.69

- or -

Long Aug $9.00 PUT (MGM1218T9) Entry $0.27

07/23/12 triggered @ 9.69

Entry on July 23 at $9.69
Earnings Date 08/07/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.9 million
Listed on July 21, 2011


Red Robin Gourmet Burgers - RRGB - close: 28.00 change: -0.09

Stop Loss: 31.05
Target(s): 26.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 6.2%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/26/12 update: The lack of a bounce in RRGB two days in a row is still a good sign for the bears. Yet the stock remains short-term oversold. I would not launch new positions now. Readers may want to adjust their stops closer to $30.00.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for RRGB is bearish with a $22.00 target.

current Position: short RRGB stock @ $29.85

- or -

Long Aug $30 PUT (RRGB1218T30) Entry $1.60

Entry on July 24 at $29.85
Earnings Date 08/09/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 170 thousand
Listed on July 23, 2011


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

CNH Global NV - CNH - close: 37.86 change: +2.41

Stop Loss: 36.05
Target(s): 30.25
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 1st earnings report
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
07/26/12 update: CNH shares are seeing a very strong bounce. The stock produced a +6.79% gain. It is unlikely that CNH will reverse soon enough to hit our trigger at $34.25.

We are removing CNH as a candidate. Our trade did not open.

Trade did not open.

07/26/12 removed. Trade did not open.

chart:

Entry on July xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 08/01/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 528 thousand
Listed on July 24, 2011