Editor's Note:
GM was the only play where a stop loss was hit but several are close. Groupon made up for its lack of rebound on Thursday with a big spike on Friday.

EXR and RGR both have earnings this week so we are exiting EXR at the open on Monday and RGR at the open on Tuesday.

James is on vacation this week.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Extra Space Storage - EXR - close: 32.21 change: +0.27

Stop Loss: Close Monday
Target(s): 33.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.4%
Time Frame: exit prior to the July 30th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/27/12 update: EXR closed at a new high but out time has run out. Close this position at the open on Monday. Earnings are Monday after the close.

Suggested Position: Long EXR stock @ $31.15

07/21/12 new stop loss @ 30.75
07/09/12 triggered @ 31.15

EXR Chart

Entry on July 09 at $31.15
Earnings Date 07/30/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
Listed on July 07, 2012


Sturm Ruger & Co - RGR - close: 47.42 change: +1.79

Stop Loss: 44.35 (new)
Target(s): 49.00
Current Gain/Loss: +5.1%
Time Frame: exit prior the Aug. 1st earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/27/12 update: Plan on exiting the trade at the open on Tuesday. RGR will announce earnings on Wednesday after the close.

The most recent data listed short interest at 30% of the small 17.4 million share float.

RGR reports earnings on Aug. 1st, after the closing bell.

current Position: Long RGR stock @ $45.10

- or -

Long Aug $45 call (RGR1218H45) Entry $2.60

07/26/12 triggered @ 45.10
07/09/12 triggered @ 31.15

Ruger Chart

Entry on July 26 at $45.10
Earnings Date 08/01/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 479 thousand
Listed on July 25, 2012


Jarden Corp. - JAH - close: 45.39 change: +.06

Stop Loss: 43.75 (new)
Target(s): 49.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Company Description

Why We Like It:
JAH makes a wide number of consumer goods. The company's recent earnings report came in better than expected. The stock has been coiling sideways under resistance at the $45.00 level for almost three weeks. The old all-time high was near $45 back in 2007.

Thursday's bullish breakout over resistance looks like a new entry point. Today's high was $45.45.

Our multi-week target is $49.00.

Entry @ 45.55

Jarden Chart

Entry on July 27 at $ 45.55
Earnings Date 07/24/12
Average Daily Volume = 652 thousand
Listed on July 26, 2012


BEARISH Play Updates

Focus Media Holdings - FMCN - close: 19.69 change: +1.02

Stop Loss: 20.10
Target(s): 15.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 7.0%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/27/12 update: FMCN spiked +5.46% on Friday as short covering lifted the entire market. This would be a good spot to initiate a new position but only on weakness.

Readers will want to consider limiting the size of their positions since FMCN can be such a volatile stock (or just use the options to limit how much capital you have exposed).

current Position: short FMCN stock @ $18.40

- or -

Long Aug $18 PUT (FMCN1218T18) Entry $1.50

Focus Media Chart

Entry on July 17 at $18.40
Earnings Date 05/29/12
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million
Listed on July 16, 2012


Groupon, Inc. - GRPN - close: 7.59 change: +0.98

Stop Loss: 8.25 (New)
Target(s): 6.25
Current Gain/Loss: +9.6%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 13th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/27/12 update: James mentioned taking profits in the Thursday night letter since GRPN was only 25 cents away from the target. That was good advice. There was a massive +15% short squeeze on Friday to nearly erase all our gains. The squeeze ran into heavy resistance at $8 and quickly faded. This would be a good spot to open new positions on any weakness. I lowered the stop loss to $8.25.

The exit target is $6.25.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short GRPN stock @ $8.40

- or -

Long Aug $8.00 PUT (GRPN1218T8) Entry $0.80

07/27/12 lowered stop to $8.25.
07/18/12 readers may want to start taking some money off the table
our GRPN trade is up +15.8%
07/12/12 new stop loss @ 9.05

Groupon Chart

Entry on July 09 at $8.40
Earnings Date 08/13/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.1 million
Listed on July 07, 2012


Home Inns & Hotels Management - HMIN - close: 17.98 change: +0.30

Stop Loss: 18.65 (new)
Target(s): 18.00 & 15.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 8.4%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 9th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/27/12 update: MMIN has rallied for five days since hitting a low of $16.50 on the 23rd. I am worried the stock is going to reverse its downward trend after strong post earnings gains in HOT, WYN and MAR. I lowered the stop loss to 18.65.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

HMIN hit our first target at $18.00 on July 12th.
Our second target is $15.50.

Earlier Comments:
Readers may want to keep their position size small or use the options to limit their risk. The most recent data listed short interest at 17% of the 24.2 million share float.

Suggested Position: short HMIN stock @ $19.60

- or -

Long Aug $20 PUT (HMIN1218T20) Entry $1.70

07/27/12 new stop loss @ 18.65
07/12/12 new stop loss @ 20.25
07/12/12 1st target hit @ 18.00 (+8.2%)
1st target hit @ 18.00, option bid @ $2.50 (+47.0%)*
(option exit price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our first target was hit)
07/10/12 triggered @ 19.60

HMIN Chart

Entry on July 10 at $19.60
Earnings Date 08/09/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 284 thousand
Listed on July 09, 2012


Harley-Davidson - HOG - close: 44.64 change: +1.44

Stop Loss: 45.25
Target(s): 40.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.8%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 1st earnings
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/27/12 update: HOG rallied for two days on the market related short squeeze. With earnings on August 1st we need to exit this position at the open on Tuesday if we are not stopped prior to that at $45.25.

current Position: short HOG stock @ $43.86

- or -

Long Aug $42 PUT (HOG1218T42) Entry $1.62

HOG Chart

Entry on July 16 at $43.86
Earnings Date 08/01/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million
Listed on July 14, 2012


Hewlett Packard - HPQ - close: 18.57 change: +0.56

Stop Loss: 19.25 (new)
Target(s): 16.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.0%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 22nd earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/27/12 update: A strong +3% short squeeze on Friday pulled HPQ off the bottom but the outlook is still negative. Earnings are not until late August. I lowered the stop loss to limit our loss if the market short squeeze continues. The rebound stopped right on downtrend resistance.

Our target is $16.50 but more aggressive traders could aim lower but the 2004 low was $16.08 so the $16.00 level could be support. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for HPQ is bearish with a $7.00 target.

Suggested Position: short HPQ stock

- or -

Long Aug $18 PUT (HPQ1218T18) Entry $0.54

07/27/12 lowered stop loss to 19.25
07/23/12 trade opened on gap down at $18.38. Trigger was $18.40

HPQ Chart

Entry on July 23 at $18.38
Earnings Date 08/22/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 18.0 million
Listed on July 21, 2012


Kellogg Co. - K - close: 47.20 change: +0.58

Stop Loss: 47.75 (new)
Target(s): 44.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.2%
Time Frame: exit prior to Aug. 2nd earnings
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/27/12 update: Kellogg rallied slightly with the broader market but the worsening drought is going to raise grain costs considerably for Kellogg. Long term this is still a short. However, earnings are Thursday so we need to exit this position on Wednesday at the open.

I am not suggesting new positions and I lowered the stop loss to $47.75.

current Position: short K stock @ $47.75

- or -

Long Aug $47.50 PUT (K1218T47.5) Entry $0.85

07/25/12 readers may want to consider taking profits early on the August put. Current bid is $1.40
07/20/12 triggered @ 47.75

Kellogg Chart

Entry on July 20 at $47.75
Earnings Date 08/02/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million
Listed on July 19, 2012


MGM Resorts - MGM - close: 9.44 change: +0.22

Stop Loss: 9.90 (new)
Target(s): 8.10
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.9%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 7th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/26/12 update: MGM dipped to $9.00 and bounced on the short squeeze in the broader market. The larger trend is still bearish but I lowered the stop loss to $9.90 just in case. Recent reports of a major slowdown in Vegas could push MGM below that $9 support once the broader market weakens.

I am not suggesting new positions.

Earlier Comments:
Looking at a weekly chart you will see significant support near $9.00. Yet 2011 saw a spike down to $7.40 and the Point & Figure chart for MGM is bearish with a $5.00 target. We are aiming for $8.10.

current Position: short MGM stock @ $9.69

- or -

Long Aug $9.00 PUT (MGM1218T9) Entry $0.27

07/23/12 triggered @ 9.69

MGM Chart

Entry on July 23 at $9.69
Earnings Date 08/07/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.9 million
Listed on July 21, 2012


Red Robin Gourmet Burgers - RRGB - close: 30.04 change: +2.05

Stop Loss: 31.05
Target(s): 26.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.7%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/27/12 update: RRGB made up for its steep four day decline with a +7.3% short squeeze rally on Friday. There was no news on RRGB. This was purely market related.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for RRGB is bearish with a $22.00 target.

current Position: short RRGB stock @ $29.85

- or -

Long Aug $30 PUT (RRGB1218T30) Entry $1.60

Red Robin Chart

Entry on July 24 at $29.85
Earnings Date 08/09/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 170 thousand
Listed on July 23, 2012


EZCORP, Inc. - EZPW - close: 22.51 change: +0.41

Stop Loss: 23.10
Target(s): 20.05
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Company Description

Why We Like It:
You might think that with the U.S. economy struggling and unemployment still elevated that pawnshops would be doing strong business. Instead EZPW is struggling to meet its numbers. The company recently reported earnings and missed both the top and bottom line estimate. Furthermore management lowered their earnings guidance for 2012.

Now the stock is sitting on support at the $22.00 level. The June low was $21.91. I am suggesting a trigger to launch bearish positions at $21.80. Conservative traders can target a drop to $20.00. More aggressive traders could aim for the $18.00 level. The newsletter will plan on exiting at $20.05. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for EZPW is bearish with a long-term $10 target.

Trigger @ 21.80

Suggested Position: short EZPW stock @ (trigger)

- or -

buy the Sep $20 PUT (EZPW1222U20) current ask $0.55

EZPW Chart

Entry on July xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 07/24/12
Average Daily Volume = 381 thousand
Listed on July 26, 2012


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

None Closed


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

General Motors - GM - close: 19.65 change: +0.56

Stop Loss: 19.65
Target(s): 17.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.5%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 2nd earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/27/12 update: GM exploded higher over the last two days as the headlines from Europe caused back to back short squeezes.

The stop loss at $19.65 was hit on Friday at the close.

GM reports earnings on Aug. 2nd, before the opening bell.

Position: short GM stock @ $19.02 - CLOSED @ $19.65, -0.63 loss.

- or -

Long Aug $18 PUT (GM1218T18) Entry $0.42, exit 0.21, -0.21 loss

GM Chart

Entry on July 26 at $19.02
Earnings Date 08/02/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.7 million
Listed on July 25, 2011