The market spike at the open came very close to stopping out several plays but we were lucky today.

Editor's Note:
Several stocks on the short list rallied to within cents of their stop losses at the open before closing well off their highs. It was close but all of the plays survived the gap higher.

Tuesday could be let down day. Traders may decide to take profits from the late week rally rather than hold over the ECB/Fed meetings in hopes of a new rally.

James is on vacation this week.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Jarden Corp. - JAH - close: 44.94 change: -.46

Stop Loss: 43.75 (new)
Target(s): 49.00
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Company Description

Comments
Update 7/30/12: JAH pulled back with the market. No news.

Our multi-week target is $49.00.

Entry @ 45.55

Entry on July 27 at $ 45.55
Earnings Date 07/24/12
Average Daily Volume = 652 thousand
Listed on July 26, 2012


Sandisk Corp. - SNDK - close: 41.16 change: -1.27

Stop Loss: 38.95
Target(s): 50.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Company Description
Comments:
07/30/12 update: SNDK spiked exactly to the trigger point at $42.75 with not a penny to spare before falling -3% to close just over $41.

This is not a very exciting start to the play but the decline was Nasdaq related rather than specific news on SNDK.

If the market cooperates I believe we could see $50 on SNDK over the next several weeks. That is a big "IF" given the highly volatile market today but some form of stimulus from the ECB and/or Fed could give us another ramp higher.

Trigger @ 42.75 hit 7/30/12

Suggested Position:

Long SNDK stock @ $42.75

OR

Long SNDK Sept $44 Call, @ $2.28.

SNDK Chart

Entry on July 30 at $ 42.75
Earnings Date 07/20/12 (past)
Average Daily Volume = 4.5 Million
Listed on July 28, 2012


BEARISH Play Updates

Focus Media Holdings - FMCN - close: 19.41 change: -.30

Stop Loss: 20.10
Target(s): 15.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 7.0%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/30/12 update: FMCN spiked to $20 at the open and missed the stop loss by 10 cents before losing ground. This stock was reacting to the Nasdaq move rather than individual stock news.

Position: short FMCN stock @ $18.40

- or -

Long Aug $18 PUT (FMCN1218T18) Entry $1.50

Entry on July 17 at $18.40
Earnings Date 05/29/12
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million
Listed on July 16, 2012


Groupon, Inc. - GRPN - close: 6.90 change: -0.69

Stop Loss: 8.25
Target(s): 6.25
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 13th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/30/12 update: James mentioned taking profits in the Thursday night letter since GRPN was only 25 cents away from the target. That was good advice.

It looks like we are going to get another chance to test that $6.50 support level. Shares of GRPN faded right from the open on Monday and closed near the low of the day for a -9% decline.

The exit target is $6.25.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short GRPN stock @ $8.40

- or -

Long Aug $8.00 PUT (GRPN1218T8) Entry $0.80

07/27/12 lowered stop to $8.25.
07/18/12 readers may want to start taking some money off the table
our GRPN trade is up +15.8%
07/12/12 new stop loss @ 9.05

Entry on July 09 at $8.40
Earnings Date 08/13/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.1 million
Listed on July 07, 2012


Home Inns & Hotels Management - HMIN - close: 17.88 change: -0.07

Stop Loss: 18.65
Target(s): 18.00 & 15.50
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 9th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/30/12 update: The multiple day rebound on HMIN appears to have failed at resistance at $18.10. We need another down day in the markets to convince the longs to head to the sidelines.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

HMIN hit our first target at $18.00 on July 12th.
Our second target is $15.50.

Position: short HMIN stock @ $19.60

- or -

Long Aug $20 PUT (HMIN1218T20) Entry $1.70

07/27/12 new stop loss @ 18.65
07/12/12 new stop loss @ 20.25
07/12/12 1st target hit @ 18.00 (+8.2%)
1st target hit @ 18.00, option bid @ $2.50 (+47.0%)*
(option exit price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our first target was hit)
07/10/12 triggered @ 19.60

Entry on July 10 at $19.60
Earnings Date 08/09/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 284 thousand
Listed on July 09, 2012


Harley-Davidson - HOG - close: 44.48 change: -.15

Stop Loss: 45.25
Target(s): 40.25
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 1st earnings
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/30/12 update: HOG faded from the opening highs but it was not very convincing.

With earnings on August 1st we need to exit this position at the open on Tuesday .

Position: short HOG stock @ $43.86

- or -

Long Aug $42 PUT (HOG1218T42) Entry $1.62

Entry on July 16 at $43.86
Earnings Date 08/01/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million
Listed on July 14, 2012


Hewlett Packard - HPQ - close: 18.57 change: +0.56

Stop Loss: 19.25
Target(s): 16.50
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 22nd earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/30/12 update: HPQ faded right at the open to eventually close right near the lows for the day. The falling Nasdaq was the primary driver of the decline.

The rebound on Friday stopped right on downtrend resistance.

Our target is $16.50 but more aggressive traders could aim lower but the 2004 low was $16.08 so the $16.00 level could be support. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for HPQ is bearish with a $7.00 target.

Suggested Position: short HPQ stock

- or -

Long Aug $18 PUT (HPQ1218T18) Entry $0.54

07/27/12 lowered stop loss to 19.25
07/23/12 trade opened on gap down at $18.38. Trigger was $18.40

Entry on July 23 at $18.38
Earnings Date 08/22/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 18.0 million
Listed on July 21, 2012


Kellogg Co. - K - close: 47.39 change: +0.21

Stop Loss: 47.75 (new)
Target(s): 44.25
Time Frame: exit prior to Aug. 2nd earnings
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/30/12 update: Kellogg was rather volatile on Monday with a spike to $47.71 at the open and missing our stop loss by 4-cents. With the sharp spike in corn prices on Monday you would have thought that Kelloggs would have been weaker.

I am not suggesting new positions and I lowered the stop loss to $47.75.

current Position: short K stock @ $47.75

- or -

Long Aug $47.50 PUT (K1218T47.5) Entry $0.85

07/25/12 readers may want to consider taking profits early on the August put. Current bid is $1.40
07/20/12 triggered @ 47.75

Entry on July 20 at $47.75
Earnings Date 08/02/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million
Listed on July 19, 2012


MGM Resorts - MGM - close: 9.47 change: +0.04

Stop Loss: 9.90 (new)
Target(s): 8.10
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 7th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/30/12 update: No movement, no news. No change.

I am not suggesting new positions.

Earlier Comments:
Looking at a weekly chart you will see significant support near $9.00. Yet 2011 saw a spike down to $7.40 and the Point & Figure chart for MGM is bearish with a $5.00 target. We are aiming for $8.10.

current Position: short MGM stock @ $9.69

- or -

Long Aug $9.00 PUT (MGM1218T9) Entry $0.27

07/23/12 triggered @ 9.69

Entry on July 23 at $9.69
Earnings Date 08/07/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.9 million
Listed on July 21, 2012


Red Robin Gourmet Burgers - RRGB - close: 29.82 change: -.27

Stop Loss: 31.05
Target(s): 26.00
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/30/12 update: RRGB spiked to $30.98 at the open and missed the stop loss by 7 cents before sliding back to close at the lows for the day. No change in the play.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for RRGB is bearish with a $22.00 target.

current Position: short RRGB stock @ $29.85

- or -

Long Aug $30 PUT (RRGB1218T30) Entry $1.60

Entry on July 24 at $29.85
Earnings Date 08/09/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 170 thousand
Listed on July 23, 2012


EZCORP, Inc. - EZPW - close: 22.52 change: +0.01

Stop Loss: 23.10
Target(s): 20.05
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Company Description

Why We Like It:
You might think that with the U.S. economy struggling and unemployment still elevated that pawnshops would be doing strong business. Instead EZPW is struggling to meet its numbers. The company recently reported earnings and missed both the top and bottom line estimate. Furthermore management lowered their earnings guidance for 2012.

Now the stock is sitting on support at the $22.00 level. The June low was $21.91. I am suggesting a trigger to launch bearish positions at $21.80. Conservative traders can target a drop to $20.00. More aggressive traders could aim for the $18.00 level. The newsletter will plan on exiting at $20.05. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for EZPW is bearish with a long-term $10 target.

Trigger @ 21.80

Suggested Position: short EZPW stock @ (trigger)

- or -

buy the Sep $20 PUT (EZPW1222U20) current ask $0.55

Entry on July xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 07/24/12
Average Daily Volume = 381 thousand
Listed on July 26, 2012


CTrip.com. - CTRP - close: 12.61 change: -0.85

Stop Loss: 14.25
Target(s): 10.25
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Company Description
Comments:
07/30/12 update:
Ctrip was a perfect entry to offset some of the bad ones we have seen recently. The stock dipped slightly at the open and then collapsed through the entry trigger at $13.15 about 10:40.

The chart is really ugly and there is no support until $10.

Trigger @ 13.15 hit 7/30/12 @ 10:40

Position: short CTRP stock @ $13.15

- or -

Long the Dec $12 PUT @ $1.10

CTRP Chart

Entry on July 30 at $ 13.15
Earnings Date 07/24/12
Average Daily Volume = 2.8 Million
Listed on July 28, 2012


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Extra Space Storage - EXR - close: 32.07 change: -0.14

Stop Loss: Closed as planned
Target(s): 33.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.7%
Time Frame: exit prior to the July 30th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/30/12 update: EXR spiked to a new high at the open and gave us the perfect exit as planned. The earnings after the close rose +40.7% to 38-cents. It was a great earnings report but we always exit in advance just in case of a disaster.

Suggested Position: Long EXR stock @ $31.15, exit $32.31, +1.16, +3.7%

07/30/12 Exited at the open as planned. 07/21/12 new stop loss @ 30.75
07/09/12 triggered @ 31.15
EXR Chart

Entry on July 09 at $31.15
Earnings Date 07/30/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
Listed on July 07, 2012


Sturm Ruger & Co - RGR - close: 49.16 change: +1.79

Stop Loss: Closed
Target(s): 49.00 Hit 7/30
Current Gain/Loss: +5.1%
Time Frame: exit prior the Aug. 1st earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/30/12 update: The plan was to exit at the open on Tuesday but Ruger hit our target at $49 for a +9% gain and the position was closed for record purposes at that $49 level. This was a great play!

RGR reports earnings on Aug. 1st, after the closing bell.

Position: Long RGR stock @ $45.10, exit $49.00, +3.90 (+9.1%)

- or -

Long Aug $45 call (RGR1218H45) Entry $2.60, exit $4.91, +89%

07/26/12 triggered @ 45.10
07/09/12 triggered @ 31.15
RGR Chart

Entry on July 26 at $45.10
Earnings Date 08/01/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 479 thousand
Listed on July 25, 2012


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

No short plays closed