Mario Draghi helped add profit to our predominantly bearish positions and push the overall market lower.

Editor's Note:
Mario Draghi revealed a plan to make a new plan at his press conference but it was not the outcome the markets wanted. After promising to do "whatever is necessary" last week his plan to make some changes in the "coming weeks" was a disappointment for the market.

Tonight the focus is on the Nonfarm Payroll report due out on Friday with an estimate for the gain of +100,000 jobs. Traders either hope it will be strong enough to build investor confidence and push the market higher or low enough that the Fed is forced to act and push the market higher. Any number in the 75,000 to 100,000 range will be considered neutral and should push the market lower.

The portfolio is heavily weighted to bearish positions and we are finally starting to get some downward movement on several of those. If the broader market continues lower we are setup to profit from it.

We did not get as big a move in several positions as I would have hoped but any negative move is appreciated.

I changed the stop losses on the stocks in yellow on the portfolio graphic.

James is on vacation this week.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Jarden Corp. - JAH - close: 46.86 change: +1.81

Stop Loss: 44.65
Target(s): 49.00
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Company Description

Comments
Update 8/02/12:
Big spike on a down day after S&P announced they were adding Jarden to the S&P Midcap 400. No complaints here. I raised the stop loss again to $44.65.

Our multi-week target is $49.00.

Entry @ 45.55

Entry on July 27 at $ 45.55
Earnings Date 07/24/12
Average Daily Volume = 652 thousand
Listed on July 26, 2012


Sandisk Corp. - SNDK - close: 40.75 change: -.68

Stop Loss: 38.95
Target(s): 50.00
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Company Description
Comments:
8/02/12 update:
Minor decline in a bad market. No news. No change in play.

Trigger @ 42.75 hit 7/30/12

Suggested Position:

Long SNDK stock @ $42.75

OR

Long SNDK Sept $44 Call, @ $2.28.

Entry on July 30 at $ 42.75
Earnings Date 07/20/12 (past)
Average Daily Volume = 4.5 Million
Listed on July 28, 2012


BEARISH Play Updates

Focus Media Holdings - FMCN - close: 19.28 change: +.36

Stop Loss: 20.10
Target(s): 15.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 7.0%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
8/02/12 update:
FMCN rebounded in a weak market. If no further decline on Friday I will drop it in the weekend newsletter.

Position: short FMCN stock @ $18.40

- or -

Long Aug $18 PUT (FMCN1218T18) Entry $1.50

Entry on July 17 at $18.40
Earnings Date 05/29/12
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million
Listed on July 16, 2012


Groupon, Inc. - GRPN - close: 6.39 change: -0.10

Stop Loss: 6.75 (new)
Target(s): 6.25
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 13th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
8/02/12 update: A new low on Groupon allowed me to lower the stop loss to $6.75 to avoid a sudden surprise. We are only 14 cents away from the exit target.

The exit target is $6.25.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short GRPN stock @ $8.40

- or -

Long Aug $8.00 PUT (GRPN1218T8) Entry $0.80

07/27/12 lowered stop to $8.25.
07/18/12 readers may want to start taking some money off the table
our GRPN trade is up +15.8%
07/12/12 new stop loss @ 9.05

Entry on July 09 at $8.40
Earnings Date 08/13/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.1 million
Listed on July 07, 2012


Hewlett Packard - HPQ - close: 17.54 change: -0.11

Stop Loss: 18.25 (new)
Target(s): 16.50
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 22nd earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
8/02/12 update: Another decline to a new low after a big spike at the open. I lowered the stop loss again to 18.25. The intraday high today was $18.18 on a big spike at the open.

Our target is $16.50 but more aggressive traders could aim lower but the 2004 low was $16.08 so the $16.00 level could be support.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for HPQ is bearish with a $7.00 target.

Suggested Position: short HPQ stock

- or -

Long Aug $18 PUT (HPQ1218T18) Entry $0.54

07/27/12 lowered stop loss to 19.25
07/23/12 trade opened on gap down at $18.38. Trigger was $18.40

Entry on July 23 at $18.38
Earnings Date 08/22/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 18.0 million
Listed on July 21, 2012


MGM Resorts - MGM - close: 8.99 change: -0.42

Stop Loss: 9.65 (new)
Target(s): 8.10
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 7th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
8/02/12 update: Big 4% decline to support from December at $9. I lowered the stop loss again to prevent a give back on a bounce from that support.

I am not suggesting new positions.

Earlier Comments:
Looking at a weekly chart you will see significant support near $9.00. Yet 2011 saw a spike down to $7.40 and the Point & Figure chart for MGM is bearish with a $5.00 target. We are aiming for $8.10.

current Position: short MGM stock @ $9.69

- or -

Long Aug $9.00 PUT (MGM1218T9) Entry $0.27

07/23/12 triggered @ 9.69

Entry on July 23 at $9.69
Earnings Date 08/07/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.9 million
Listed on July 21, 2012


Red Robin Gourmet Burgers - RRGB - close: 28.88 change: -.45

Stop Loss: 29.75 (new)
Target(s): 26.00
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
8/02/12 update: Finally a decent drop and a close near the lows for the day. I lowered the stop to just above yesterday's closing high.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for RRGB is bearish with a $22.00 target.

current Position: short RRGB stock @ $29.85

- or -

Long Aug $30 PUT (RRGB1218T30) Entry $1.60

Entry on July 24 at $29.85
Earnings Date 08/09/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 170 thousand
Listed on July 23, 2012


EZCORP, Inc. - EZPW - close: 21.90 change: +0.07

Stop Loss: 22.85
Target(s): 20.05
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Company Description
8/02/12 update:
Big gap down at the open to a new 52-week low but shares rebounded to close slightly positive. The trend is still down despite the rebound.

Why We Like It:
You might think that with the U.S. economy struggling and unemployment still elevated that pawnshops would be doing strong business. Instead EZPW is struggling to meet its numbers. The company recently reported earnings and missed both the top and bottom line estimate. Furthermore management lowered their earnings guidance for 2012.

Now the stock is sitting on support at the $22.00 level. The June low was $21.91. I am suggesting a trigger to launch bearish positions at $21.80. Conservative traders can target a drop to $20.00. More aggressive traders could aim for the $18.00 level. The newsletter will plan on exiting at $20.05. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for EZPW is bearish with a long-term $10 target.

Trigger @ 21.80

Suggested Position: short EZPW stock @ (trigger)

- or -

buy the Sep $20 PUT (EZPW1222U20) current ask $0.55

Entry on Aug 1st at $ 21.80
Earnings Date 07/24/12
Average Daily Volume = 381 thousand
Listed on July 26, 2012


CTrip.com. - CTRP - close: 12.51 change: -0.19

Stop Loss: 13.25 (new)
Target(s): 10.25
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Company Description
Comments:
8/02/12 update:
Shares of CTRP closed at the low for the day with strong support intraday at 12.50. If that support cracks we could see an immediate drop to a lower range. Somebody has been buying at $12.50 for four days. Eventually they will run out of money.

The chart is really ugly and there is no real support until $10.

Trigger @ 13.15 hit 7/30/12 @ 10:40

Position: short CTRP stock @ $13.15

- or -

Long the Dec $12 PUT @ $1.10

Entry on July 30 at $ 13.15
Earnings Date 07/24/12
Average Daily Volume = 2.8 Million
Listed on July 28, 2012

Ingram Micro - IM - close: 14.47 change: -.27

Stop Loss: 15.25
Target(s): 12.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Company Description

Update 8/02/12
Ingram broke down to trigger the play at $14.60 and close at a new low. This is a weak stock in a weak market and our target is $12.00.

Why We Like It:
Ingram is a technology company that sells all types of computer hardware and components. The hardware sector is very soft today. Companies are holding off on new purchases until they see how the election plays out and what happens to the fiscal cliff.

Ingram posted earnings this week of 39 cents that beat estimates by a penny. Revenue only rose +0.3% from the year ago quarter. Currency translation cost the company 5% of their earnings. The company used the Europe excuse for the lackluster earnings.

They also complained about product mix saying customers are buying cheaper products with lower margins. Expenses rose +2.2% and operating margin declined to 4.0%. That does not leave a lot for profit.

They guided lower for Q3 saying revenue would be flat and gross margins to decline further. They warned they would be facing an additional interest burden of $2 million for debt incurred to fund the Brightpoint acquisition.

Wednesday's close at $14.72 is last ditch support dating back to mid 2010 and again in March 2008. The stock traded lower in the recession to $10 and below. If Ingram declines below today's closing support I believe it will retest congestive support at $12.

Trigger @ 14.60 hit 8/2/12

Suggested Position: Short IM stock @ $14.60

Premiums on options are skewed so shorting is the only play.

Ingram Micro Chart

Entry on July xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 08/09/12
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 Million
Listed on August 1, 2012


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Emulex - ELX - close: 6.04 change: -.19

Stop Loss: 5.85
Target(s): 7.25
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments
Emulex has moved sharply lower for three consecutive days and is now testing support rather than resistance. I am dropping Emulex as a potential play.

Trigger @ 6.65 UNOPENED

Suggested Position: buy ELX stock @ $6.65

Emulex Chart

Entry: UNOPENED
Earnings Date 08/09/12
Average Daily Volume = 4.5 Million
Listed on July 30, 2012