Editor's Note:
The stock market retreated from its Friday morning highs on what was a relatively quiet quadruple-witching expiration Friday.

Our CLMT has been triggered. We removed SFLY. I am suggesting an early exit in VMED.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Analog Devices - ADI - close: 40.32 change: -0.19

Stop Loss: 39.45
Target(s): 44.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.9%

Entry on September 17 at $41.10
Listed on September 15, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/22/12: It was not a great week for the semiconductor sector and ADI followed the group lower. The close under short-term support near $40.50 is short-term bearish. We can still look for potential support at the $40.00 mark. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops closer to $40.00.

I would wait for a bounce near $40.00 before considering new positions.

Our multi-week target is going to require some patience but we are aiming for $44.75. The Point & Figure chart for ADI is bullish with a $49 target.

current Position: Long ADI stock @ $41.10

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long 2013 Jan $42 call (ADI1319a42) Entry $1.60

09/17/12 triggered @ 41.10

chart:



Calumet Specialty Products - CLMT - close: 30.57 change: +0.57

Stop Loss: 28.90
Target(s): 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.9%

Entry on September 21 at $30.30
Listed on September 20, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 409 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/22/12: CLMT outperformed the market on Friday with a +1.9% gain. Shares appear to be breaking out from a bull-flag consolidation pattern. Our trigger to launch positions was hit at $30.30.

Income investors might want to do more research on CLMT as a potential longer-term trade considering the stock's 8.1% dividend yield.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CLMT is bullish with a long-term $47.50 target.

current Position: Long CLMT stock @ $30.30

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

NOV $30 call (CLMT1217K30) Entry $1.40

09/21/12 triggered @ 30.30

chart:



Energy XXI Ltd. - EXXI - close: 37.05 change: -0.16

Stop Loss: 35.75
Target(s): 39.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.2%

Entry on September 12 at $35.55
Listed on September 11, 2011
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 790 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/22/12: EXXI's rallied Friday morning like much of the market and also followed the market's fade lower into the weekend. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. We will raise our stop loss up to $35.75.

current Position: Long EXXI stock @ $35.55

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $35 CALL (EXXI1220j35) Entry $2.25 exit $3.05*(+35.5%)

09/22/12 new stop loss @ 35.75
09/17/12 closed our Oct. $35 calls at the open. bid @ $3.05
*option exit price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was closed.
09/15/12 new stop loss @ 35.45, prepare to exit our Oct. calls at the open on Monday
09/13/12 new stop loss @ 34.40

chart:



Guidewire Software - GWRE - close: 31.34 change: +0.04

Stop Loss: 29.85
Target(s): 34.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.4%

Entry on September 18 at $31.23
Listed on September 17, 2011
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 621 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/22/12: GWRE saw some volatility on Friday but traders bought the dip and shares managed to close in positive territory. This stock is now up five out of the last six weeks. Traders can use Friday's intraday bounce as a new bullish entry point. Our multi-week target is $34.50.

current Position: Long GWRE stock @ $31.23

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $30 call (GWRE1220j30) entry $2.50

chart:



Lions Gate Entertainment - LGF - close: 15.37 change: -0.23

Stop Loss: 14.75
Target(s): 17.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.8%

Entry on September 18 at $15.25
Listed on September 15, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/22/12: LGF traders were in a mood to sell ahead of the weekend and Friday's -1.4% decline took a big chunk off our potential gains. If you look closely LGF is consolidating in a neutral pennant-shaped pattern with higher lows and lower highs. It's supposed to be neutral but more often than not the stock breaks out into the preceding trend.

Readers may want to wait for a breakout past $16.00 before considering new positions.

current Position: Long LGF stock @ $15.25

09/18/12 triggered @ 15.25

chart:



Virgin Media, Inc. - VMED - close: 29.61 change: -0.83

Stop Loss: 29.25
Target(s): 32.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.0%

Entry on September 19 at $30.20
Listed on September 06, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/22/12: Ouch! What is going on with VMED on Friday? The stock saw a sharp spike to a new 52-week high and hit $31.09 and then completely reversed to settle with a -2.7% decline on the session. Furthermore volume was more than seven times the normal on Friday.

I could not find any specific news behind VMED's reversal and it is a bearish reversal. We're suggesting an immediate exit on Monday morning.

NOTE: We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

current Position: Long VMED stock @ $30.20

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $30 call (VMED1220j30) entry $0.95

09/22/12 prepare to exit positions on Monday morning at the open
09/19/12 triggered @ $30.20
09/18/12 Strategy change: use a breakout trigger to open bullish positions at $30.20 with a stop loss at $29.25.
09/15/12 adjust buy-the-dip trigger to $29.00 and stop to $28.45
09/13/12 adjust the entry trigger to $28.75
09/08/12 adjust the buy-the-dip trigger higher from $28.25 to $28.55 and adjust the stop loss to $27.45

chart:



BEARISH Play Updates

Centene Corp. - CNC - close: 37.34 change: +1.15

Stop Loss: 38.51
Target(s): 31.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.6%

Entry on September 20 at $36.75
Listed on September 19, 2011
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 693 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/22/12: Uh-oh! CNC is reversing on us. Shares outperformed the market with a +3.1% gain. This could have been related to option expiration. The larger trend remains bearish. I would use a new drop under $37.00 as an entry point to launch new bearish positions.

current Position: short CNC stock @ $36.75

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $35 PUT (CNC1220v35) Entry $1.20

chart:



Con-way Inc. - CNW - close: 27.18 change: -0.30

Stop Loss: 29.55
Target(s): 25.05
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.4%

Entry on September 20 at $28.44
Listed on September 19, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 787 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/22/12: Transports continue to accelerate lower. CNW gave up another -1% on Friday. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. CNW is starting to look a little bit oversold so it could see a bounce soon but broken support near $29 should be new resistance.

Our target is $25.05. More aggressive traders could aim lower. The Point & Figure chart for CNW is bearish with a $20 target.

current Position: short CNW stock @ $28.44 (gap down)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $27.50 put (CNW1220v27.5) Entry $1.00*

09/20/12 new stop loss @ 29.55
09/20/12 entry on gap open lower at $28.44
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.

chart:




CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Shutterfly, Inc. - SFLY - close: 32.74 change: -0.36

Stop Loss: 32.25
Target(s): 39.75
Current Gain/Loss: unopened

Entry on September xx at $ xx.xx
Listed on September 18, 2011
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 834 thousand
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
09/22/12: SFLY is not cooperating. Bigger picture it looks like the stock has built a significant base but shares remain under resistance in the $34-35 level (and its 300-dma). We've been waiting for a breakout but it's not happening.

I am removing SFLY from the newsletter. Our trade did not open. Readers may want to keep this stock on their radar screen for a close above the $35.00 level.

Trade did not open.

09/22/12 removed from the newsletter. Trade did not open.

chart: