Editor's Note:
Our bearish plays are performing pretty well this week.

Our new TPX trade is off to a good start. We did close VMED as planned.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Analog Devices - ADI - close: 39.83 change: -0.49

Stop Loss: 39.45
Target(s): 44.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.1%

Entry on September 17 at $41.10
Listed on September 15, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/24/12: Now it's time to worry. ADI continues to follow the semiconductor sector lower. The SOX broke down to new multi-week lows. ADI followed with a -1.2% decline and a break below the $40.00 mark. More conservative traders will want to consider an immediately exit. If there is any follow through tomorrow we could see ADI hit our stop loss at $39.45. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our multi-week target is going to require some patience but we are aiming for $44.75. The Point & Figure chart for ADI is bullish with a $49 target.

current Position: Long ADI stock @ $41.10

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long 2013 Jan $42 call (ADI1319a42) Entry $1.60

09/17/12 triggered @ 41.10



Calumet Specialty Products - CLMT - close: 30.53 change: -0.04

Stop Loss: 28.90
Target(s): 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.8%

Entry on September 21 at $30.30
Listed on September 20, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 409 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/24/12: CLMT held up relatively well with a sideways consolidation today. I don't see any changes from my prior comments. Readers can launch positions now or try and buy a dip near $30.00.

Income investors might want to do more research on CLMT as a potential longer-term trade considering the stock's 8.1% dividend yield.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CLMT is bullish with a long-term $47.50 target.

current Position: Long CLMT stock @ $30.30

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

NOV $30 call (CLMT1217K30) Entry $1.40

09/21/12 triggered @ 30.30



Energy XXI Ltd. - EXXI - close: 36.50 change: -0.55

Stop Loss: 35.75
Target(s): 39.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.7%

Entry on September 12 at $35.55
Listed on September 11, 2011
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 790 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/24/12: EXXI took a chunk out of our unrealized gains with a -1.48% decline. The stock is once again testing short-term support at its rising 10-dma. I would not be surprised to see EXXI dip toward the $36.00 level soon. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: Long EXXI stock @ $35.55

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $35 CALL (EXXI1220j35) Entry $2.25 exit $3.05*(+35.5%)

09/22/12 new stop loss @ 35.75
09/17/12 closed our Oct. $35 calls at the open. bid @ $3.05
*option exit price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was closed.
09/15/12 new stop loss @ 35.45, prepare to exit our Oct. calls at the open on Monday
09/13/12 new stop loss @ 34.40



Guidewire Software - GWRE - close: 31.10 change: -0.24

Stop Loss: 29.85
Target(s): 34.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.4%

Entry on September 18 at $31.23
Listed on September 17, 2011
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 621 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/24/12: Monday proved to be a rather boring session for GWRE with the stock moving sideways in a 45-cent range. Nimble traders could try and buy a dip near $30.00 or wait for a new rally past $31.50 as a new entry point. Our multi-week target is $34.50.

current Position: Long GWRE stock @ $31.23

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $30 call (GWRE1220j30) entry $2.50



Lions Gate Entertainment - LGF - close: 15.04 change: -0.33

Stop Loss: 14.75
Target(s): 17.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.4%

Entry on September 18 at $15.25
Listed on September 15, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/24/12: It was not a good day for LGF. Shares underperformed the market with a -2.1% decline. Not only did LGF underperform today but technically today's drop confirms what looks like a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern on Friday. At the moment LGF still has support at the $15.00 mark but it certainly looks like it's poised to breakdown below this level. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our stop loss remains at $14.75.

current Position: Long LGF stock @ $15.25

09/18/12 triggered @ 15.25



BEARISH Play Updates

Centene Corp. - CNC - close: 36.99 change: -0.35

Stop Loss: 38.51
Target(s): 31.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.7%

Entry on September 20 at $36.75
Listed on September 19, 2011
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 693 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/24/12: There was no follow through on Friday's bounce. CNC gapped open lower and then hugged the $37.00 level the rest of the day. Today's low was $36.57. Readers may want to use a new low under $36.50 as a bearish entry point.

current Position: short CNC stock @ $36.75

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $35 PUT (CNC1220v35) Entry $1.20



Con-way Inc. - CNW - close: 27.60 change: +0.42

Stop Loss: 29.55
Target(s): 25.05
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.0%

Entry on September 20 at $28.44
Listed on September 19, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 787 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/24/12: After a six-day decline CNW finally bounced. Shares spike down at the open to hit $26.84 and then rebounded to a +1.5% gain. I would now be surprised to see the bounce continue for another day or two. Broken support near $29.00 should be new resistance.

Our target is $25.05. More aggressive traders could aim lower. The Point & Figure chart for CNW is bearish with a $20 target.

current Position: short CNW stock @ $28.44 (gap down)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $27.50 put (CNW1220v27.5) Entry $1.00*

09/20/12 new stop loss @ 29.55
09/20/12 entry on gap open lower at $28.44
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.



Nu Skin Enterprises - NUS - close: 37.60 change: -1.24

Stop Loss: 41.05
Target(s): 35.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.6%

Entry on September 24 at $38.61
Listed on September 22, 2011
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/24/12: Our new play on NUS is off to a good start. Shares opened at $38.61 and then fell to a -3.1% decline. This is a new 52-week low. More conservative traders may want to lower their stop closer to the $40.00 level, which should be new resistance.

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this a more aggressive, higher-risk trade. There are already a lot of investors who are bearish on the stock. The most recent data listed short interest at 18% of the 51.9 million share float. That does raise our risk of a short squeeze so you may want to play the options to limit your risk to the cost of your option. Our initial target is $35.25 but more aggressive traders could definitely aim lower. The Point & Figure chart for NUS is bearish with a $23.00 target.

current Position: short NUS stock @ $38.61

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $35 PUT (NUS1220v35) entry $1.32



Tempur Pedic Intl. - TPX - close: 28.18 change: -1.92

Stop Loss: 31.05
Target(s): 25.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 5.3%

Entry on September 24 at $29.75
Listed on September 22, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/24/12: Our new play on TPX is also performing well. Shares fell to a -6.3% decline on Monday. Our trigger to open positions was hit at $29.75 early this morning. I am lowering our stop loss down to $31.05.

current Position: short TPX stock @ $29.75

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $30 PUT (TPX1220v30) Entry $2.10*

09/24/12 new stop loss @ 31.05
09/24/12 triggered at $29.75
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was open.




CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Virgin Media, Inc. - VMED - close: 29.75 change: +0.14

Stop Loss: 29.25
Target(s): 32.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.5%

Entry on September 19 at $30.20
Listed on September 06, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/24/12: VMED produced a nasty bearish reversal on Friday. Our plan was to exit positions on Monday morning. The stock opened at $29.44 and bounced but failed to close back above the $30.00 mark.

NOTE: We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

closed Position: Long VMED stock @ $30.20 exit $29.44 (-2.5%)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Oct $30 call (VMED1220j30) entry $0.95 exit $0.50 (-47.3%)

09/24/12 closed this morning
09/22/12 prepare to exit positions on Monday morning at the open
09/19/12 triggered @ $30.20
09/18/12 Strategy change: use a breakout trigger to open bullish positions at $30.20 with a stop loss at $29.25.
09/15/12 adjust buy-the-dip trigger to $29.00 and stop to $28.45
09/13/12 adjust the entry trigger to $28.75
09/08/12 adjust the buy-the-dip trigger higher from $28.25 to $28.55 and adjust the stop loss to $27.45

chart: