Editor's Note:
Looks like investors are in a mood to take some money off the table with stocks down almost across the board on Tuesday.

ADI and LGF were stopped out. Our bearish plays are doing well.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Calumet Specialty Products - CLMT - close: 30.21 change: -0.32

Stop Loss: 29.25
Target(s): 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.3%

Entry on September 21 at $30.30
Listed on September 20, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 409 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/25/12: Traders bought the dip near $29.75 and its simple 10-dma this morning. CLMT managed to pare its gains and limit losses to just -1%. If both CLMT and the S&P 500 open positive tomorrow then I would be tempted to launch new positions.

We are raising the stop loss to $29.25.

Income investors might want to do more research on CLMT as a potential longer-term trade considering the stock's 8.1% dividend yield.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CLMT is bullish with a long-term $47.50 target.

current Position: Long CLMT stock @ $30.30

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

NOV $30 call (CLMT1217K30) Entry $1.40

09/25/12 new stop loss @ 29.25
09/21/12 triggered @ 30.30



Energy XXI Ltd. - EXXI - close: 36.03 change: -0.47

Stop Loss: 35.75
Target(s): 39.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.4%

Entry on September 12 at $35.55
Listed on September 11, 2011
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 790 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/25/12: I warned readers yesterday that EXXI look poised to dip toward $36.00. If there is any follow through lower tomorrow then EXXI will most likely hit our stop loss at $35.75. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: Long EXXI stock @ $35.55

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $35 CALL (EXXI1220j35) Entry $2.25 exit $3.05*(+35.5%)

09/22/12 new stop loss @ 35.75
09/17/12 closed our Oct. $35 calls at the open. bid @ $3.05
*option exit price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was closed.
09/15/12 new stop loss @ 35.45, prepare to exit our Oct. calls at the open on Monday
09/13/12 new stop loss @ 34.40



Guidewire Software - GWRE - close: 30.11 change: -0.99

Stop Loss: 29.85
Target(s): 34.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.6%

Entry on September 18 at $31.23
Listed on September 17, 2011
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 621 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/25/12: Ouch! GWRE underperformed the market today with a -3.1% decline. Traders did buy the dip near round-number support at $30.00. If there is any follow through tomorrow then GWRE will hit our stop loss at $29.85.

current Position: Long GWRE stock @ $31.23

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $30 call (GWRE1220j30) entry $2.50



Homeowners Choice, Inc. - HCII - close: 23.24 change: -0.45

Stop Loss: 22.90
Target(s): 27.75
Current Gain/Loss: unopened

Entry on September xx at $ xx.xx
Listed on September 24, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 208 thousand
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
09/25/12: HCII tried to rally this morning but it didn't get very far. The stock failed at the $24.00 level and then after a quiet day started accelerating lower toward $23.00 by the close. There is no change from my prior comments.

Earlier Comments:
HCII could see a short squeeze if it can breakout again. The most recent data listed short interest at 22% of the very small 8.0 million share float.

I am suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $24.10. We'll use a stop loss at $22.90. Our multi-week target is $27.75.

Trigger @ 24.10

Suggested Position: buy HCII stock @ (trigger)



BEARISH Play Updates

Centene Corp. - CNC - close: 36.39 change: -0.60

Stop Loss: 38.51
Target(s): 31.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.0%

Entry on September 20 at $36.75
Listed on September 19, 2011
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 693 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/25/12: CNC's attempt to bounce this morning failed near its 10 and 30-dma. Shares reversed to a -1.6% decline. I would still consider new bearish positions at current levels.

current Position: short CNC stock @ $36.75

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $35 PUT (CNC1220v35) Entry $1.20



Con-way Inc. - CNW - close: 26.89 change: -0.71

Stop Loss: 29.05
Target(s): 25.05
Current Gain/Loss: + 5.5%

Entry on September 20 at $28.44
Listed on September 19, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 787 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/25/12: There was no follow through on yesterday's oversold bounce in CNW. The stock reversed with a -2.5% decline today. I am lowering our stop loss to $29.05.

Our target is $25.05. More aggressive traders could aim lower. The Point & Figure chart for CNW is bearish with a $20 target.

current Position: short CNW stock @ $28.44 (gap down)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $27.50 put (CNW1220v27.5) Entry $1.00*

09/25/12 new stop loss @ 29.05
09/20/12 new stop loss @ 29.55
09/20/12 entry on gap open lower at $28.44
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.



Nu Skin Enterprises - NUS - close: 36.71 change: -0.89

Stop Loss: 40.15
Target(s): 35.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.9%

Entry on September 24 at $38.61
Listed on September 22, 2011
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/25/12: The sell-off in NUS continues with a -2.3% decline and another new relative low. I am lowering our stop loss down to $40.15.

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this a more aggressive, higher-risk trade. There are already a lot of investors who are bearish on the stock. The most recent data listed short interest at 18% of the 51.9 million share float. That does raise our risk of a short squeeze so you may want to play the options to limit your risk to the cost of your option. Our initial target is $35.25 but more aggressive traders could definitely aim lower. The Point & Figure chart for NUS is bearish with a $23.00 target.

current Position: short NUS stock @ $38.61

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $35 PUT (NUS1220v35) entry $1.32

09/25/12 new stop loss @ 40.15



Tempur Pedic Intl. - TPX - close: 27.57 change: -0.61

Stop Loss: 30.55
Target(s): 25.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 7.3%

Entry on September 24 at $29.75
Listed on September 22, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/25/12: Traders were quick to sell the rally in TPX this morning. The stock reversed and fell another -2.1% by the closing bell. I am lowering our stop loss down to $30.55.

current Position: short TPX stock @ $29.75

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $30 PUT (TPX1220v30) Entry $2.10*

09/25/12 new stop loss @ 30.55
09/24/12 new stop loss @ 31.05
09/24/12 triggered at $29.75
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was open.




CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Analog Devices - ADI - close: 39.83 change: -0.49

Stop Loss: 39.45
Target(s): 44.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 4.0%

Entry on September 17 at $41.10
Listed on September 15, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/25/12: The SOX semiconductor index continues to drop and lost another -2.4% today. Shares of ADI followed with a -2.0% decline. Our stop loss was hit at $39.45.

closed Position: Long ADI stock @ $41.10 exit $39.45 (-4.0%)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

2013 Jan $42 call (ADI1319a42) Entry $1.60 exit $0.73 (-54.3%)

09/25/12 stopped out at $39.45
09/17/12 triggered @ 41.10

chart:



Lions Gate Entertainment - LGF - close: 14.75 change: -0.29

Stop Loss: 14.75
Target(s): 17.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.3%

Entry on September 18 at $15.25
Listed on September 15, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/25/12: LGF managed a bounce off support near $15.00 this morning but the rally quickly ran out of steam. LGF rolled over at $15.37 and then broke down under support at $15.00 to eventually close down -1.9%. Our stop loss was hit at $14.75.

closed Position: Long LGF stock @ $15.25 exit $14.75 (-3.3%)

09/25/12 stopped out at $14.75
09/18/12 triggered @ 15.25

chart: