Editor's Note:
Shares of Tempur Pedic (TPX) outperformed the market today on news it was acquiring its rival Sealy (ZZ).

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Calumet Specialty Products - CLMT - close: 31.16 change: +0.62

Stop Loss: 29.49
Target(s): 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.8%

Entry on September 21 at $30.30
Listed on September 20, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 409 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/27/12: Thursday proved to be a strong day for CLMT. The stock shot higher and hit $31.86 intraday before settling with a +2.0% gain. The stock is at new multi-year highs. I am raising our stop loss to $29.49.

Income investors might want to do more research on CLMT as a potential longer-term trade considering the stock's 8.1% dividend yield.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CLMT is bullish with a long-term $47.50 target.

current Position: Long CLMT stock @ $30.30

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

NOV $30 call (CLMT1217K30) Entry $1.40

09/27/12 new stop loss @ 29.49
09/25/12 new stop loss @ 29.25
09/21/12 triggered @ 30.30



Homeowners Choice, Inc. - HCII - close: 22.78 change: +0.28

Stop Loss: 22.90
Target(s): 27.75
Current Gain/Loss: unopened

Entry on September xx at $ xx.xx
Listed on September 24, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 208 thousand
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
09/27/12: HCII produced a +1.2% gain but most of it was on the gap open higher. Shares traded sideways in a narrow range. If HCII doesn't start performing soon we'll probably drop it as a candidate. Currently we are waiting for a breakout higher. HCII could see a short squeeze.

Earlier Comments:
HCII could see a short squeeze if it can breakout again. The most recent data listed short interest at 22% of the very small 8.0 million share float.

I am suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $24.10. We'll use a stop loss at $22.90. Our multi-week target is $27.75.

Trigger @ 24.10

Suggested Position: buy HCII stock @ (trigger)



BEARISH Play Updates

Centene Corp. - CNC - close: 37.14 change: +0.63

Stop Loss: 38.51
Target(s): 31.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.1%

Entry on September 20 at $36.75
Listed on September 19, 2011
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 693 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/27/12: Hmm... CNC displayed relative strength today with a +1.7% gain. That is a bit troubling. It looks like shares might retest the $38 level soon. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: short CNC stock @ $36.75

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $35 PUT (CNC1220v35) Entry $1.20



Con-way Inc. - CNW - close: 27.33 change: +0.33

Stop Loss: 29.05
Target(s): 25.05
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.9%

Entry on September 20 at $28.44
Listed on September 19, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 787 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/27/12: CNW continued to bounce with a +1.2% gain on Thursday. I cautioned readers that CNW was due for an oversold bounce. Look for resistance near $28.00 and near the $29.00 mark. I am not suggesting new positions at current levels.

Our target is $25.05. More aggressive traders could aim lower. The Point & Figure chart for CNW is bearish with a $20 target.

current Position: short CNW stock @ $28.44 (gap down)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $27.50 put (CNW1220v27.5) Entry $1.00*

09/25/12 new stop loss @ 29.05
09/20/12 new stop loss @ 29.55
09/20/12 entry on gap open lower at $28.44
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.



Nu Skin Enterprises - NUS - close: 37.85 change: +0.84

Stop Loss: 40.15
Target(s): 35.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.0%

Entry on September 24 at $38.61
Listed on September 22, 2011
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/27/12: The combination of NUS' short-term oversold condition and a market-wide rally helped the stock outperform with a +2.2% bounce today. Look for resistance in the $39.50-40.00 zone. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this a more aggressive, higher-risk trade. There are already a lot of investors who are bearish on the stock. The most recent data listed short interest at 18% of the 51.9 million share float. That does raise our risk of a short squeeze so you may want to play the options to limit your risk to the cost of your option. Our initial target is $35.25 but more aggressive traders could definitely aim lower. The Point & Figure chart for NUS is bearish with a $23.00 target.

current Position: short NUS stock @ $38.61

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $35 PUT (NUS1220v35) entry $1.32

09/25/12 new stop loss @ 40.15



Synaptics Inc. - SYNA - close: 24.39 change: +0.34

Stop Loss: 26.55
Target(s): 22.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.6%

Entry on September 26 at $24.79
Listed on September 25, 2011
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 439 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/27/12: SYNA was not immune to the market's broad-based bounce today. We can look for broken support near $25.00 to be new overhead resistance.

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this a higher-risk, more aggressive trade because SYNA has already seen a big move down but today's break under support could signal another big leg down. We want to limit our risk and keep our position size small.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short SYNA stock @ $24.79

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $25 PUT (SYNA1220v25) Entry $1.15



Vistaprint N.V. - VPRT - close: 34.82 change: +0.38

Stop Loss: 36.15
Target(s): 30.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.6%

Entry on September 27 at $34.60
Listed on September 26, 2011
Time Frame: 3 to 5 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 572 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/27/12: It was a relatively quiet day for VPRT. The stock opened higher at $34.60 and closed with a +1.1% gain. The overall trend remains negative and I would still consider new bearish positions at current levels.

Earlier Comments:
Readers may want to consider using put options to limit their risk. I do consider a higher-risk trade because the most recent data listed short interest at 28.4% of the small 21.9 million share float. There is a risk of a short squeeze.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short VPRT stock @ $34.60

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $35 PUT (VPRT1220v35) Entry $2.00



CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Tempur Pedic Intl. - TPX - close: 30.64 change: +3.86

Stop Loss: 30.05
Target(s): 25.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.8%

Entry on September 24 at $29.75
Listed on September 22, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/27/12: Normally when one company buys another one on Wall Street the shares of the company being bought go up and shares of the acquirer go down. In this case shares of TPX soared on news it was acquiring its rival Sealy Corp. (ZZ) for $229 million. The offer is worth $2.20 a share for Sealy's stock. TPX is also assuming all of ZZ's debt so the total deal is worth $1.3 billion. Wall Street applauded the deal and shares of TPX gapped open higher at $30.87 and hit $32.99 before paring its gains.

The gap higher was above our stop loss at $30.05. The timing of this deal stinks. Our play was up +10%. Now we have an exit at -3.8%.

closed Position: short TPX stock @ $29.75 exit $30.87 (-3.8%)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $30 PUT (TPX1220v30) Entry $2.10* exit $1.20 (-42.8%)

09/27/12 stopped out on gap open as traders react to M&A news
09/26/12 new stop loss @ 30.05, readers may want to take profits now with TPX down -10% from our entry and the option bid at $3.60
09/25/12 new stop loss @ 30.55
09/24/12 new stop loss @ 31.05
09/24/12 triggered at $29.75
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was open.

chart: