Editor's Note:
We want to take profits on some of our option positions tomorrow morning on CLMT and SYNA. Meanwhile CFX and HCII were triggered. NUS was stopped out.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

AGCO Corp. - AGCO - close: 46.80 change: -0.68

Stop Loss: 45.95
Target(s): 52.50
Current Gain/Loss: unopened

Entry on September xx at $ xx.xx
Listed on September 29, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
10/01/12: It was a disappointing session for AGCO. The stock tried to rally but failed at resistance near $48.00. I don't see any changes from my prior comments.

I am suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $48.15. We'll start with a stop loss at $45.95. Our target is $52.50.

Trigger @ 48.15

Suggested Position: buy AGCO stock @ (trigger)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

buy NOV $50 call (AGCO1211k50)



Colfax Corp. - CFX - close: 36.18 change: -0.49

Stop Loss: 34.95
Target(s): 39.90
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.2%

Entry on October 01 at $37.00
Listed on September 29, 2011
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 753 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/01/12: Our new trade on CFX is open. Unfortunately the rally faded and shares have created an ugly short-term reversal. Our trade opened this morning at $37.00 but I am not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops.

The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CFX is bullish with a long-term $59 target.

*Small Positions*

Suggested Position: Long CFX stock @ $37.00

10/01/12 triggered @ 37.00



Calumet Specialty Products - CLMT - close: 33.07 change: +1.07

Stop Loss: 31.45
Target(s): 33.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 9.1%

Entry on September 21 at $30.30
Listed on September 20, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 409 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/01/12: So close! CLMT almost hit our new exit target at $33.75 today. Shares made it to $33.64 before paring its gains. The relative strength in CLMT is very impressive but shares are growing short-term overbought here. The bid on our Nov. $30 calls has risen to $3.20 (+128%). I am suggesting we exit our November calls at the opening bell tomorrow. If you have a stock position you may want to exit early too.

I am raising our stop loss to $31.45.

Income investors might want to do more research on CLMT as a potential longer-term trade considering the stock's 8.1% dividend yield.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CLMT is bullish with a long-term $47.50 target.

current Position: Long CLMT stock @ $30.30

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

NOV $30 call (CLMT1217K30) Entry $1.40

10/01/12 new stop loss @ 31.45, prepare to exit our Nov. $30 calls at the open tomorrow morning
09/29/12 new stop loss @ 29.85
Adjust exit target to $33.75
09/27/12 new stop loss @ 29.49
09/25/12 new stop loss @ 29.25
09/21/12 triggered @ 30.30



Homeowners Choice, Inc. - HCII - close: 23.71 change: +0.21

Stop Loss: 22.90
Target(s): 27.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.6%

Entry on October 01 at $24.10
Listed on September 24, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 208 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/01/12: We have been patiently waiting for HCII to breakout past resistance near $24.00. The stock finally breaks out today and rallies to $24.57 only to reverse and close back under resistance. Our trade is open but I am not suggesting new positions. This type of move looks like a false breakout or bull trap pattern. Readers may want to raise their stop losses.

Earlier Comments:
HCII could see a short squeeze if it can breakout again. The most recent data listed short interest at 22% of the very small 8.0 million share float.

current Position: Long HCII stock @ $24.10

10/01/12 triggered @ 24.10



Medidata Solutions - MDSO - close: 41.94 change: +0.44

Stop Loss: 38.95
Target(s): 44.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.9%

Entry on September 28 at $40.75
Listed on September 27, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 147 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/01/12: MDSO continues to show strength and the stock hit another new high today. I am not suggesting new positions at current levels. Wait for a dip near $40 before considering new positions. Our multi-week target is $44.75.

current Position: Long MDSO stock @ $40.75

09/28/12 triggered @ 40.75



BEARISH Play Updates

Centene Corp. - CNC - close: 37.03 change: -0.38

Stop Loss: 38.51
Target(s): 31.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.8%

Entry on September 20 at $36.75
Listed on September 19, 2011
Time Frame: exit prior to earnings on Oct. 23rd.
Average Daily Volume = 693 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/01/12: There was no follow through on CNC's three-day bounce. The stock underperformed with a -1.0% decline. I remain cautious here and we're not suggesting new positions.

current Position: short CNC stock @ $36.75

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $35 PUT (CNC1220v35) Entry $1.20



Con-way Inc. - CNW - close: 27.34 change: -0.03

Stop Loss: 29.05
Target(s): 25.05
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.9%

Entry on September 20 at $28.44
Listed on September 19, 2011
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 787 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/01/12: CNW spiked toward $28 this morning but shares closed virtually unchanged on the session. That's three days in a row where the end of day change was pretty mild.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our target is $25.05. More aggressive traders could aim lower. The Point & Figure chart for CNW is bearish with a $20 target.

current Position: short CNW stock @ $28.44 (gap down)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $27.50 put (CNW1220v27.5) Entry $1.00*

09/25/12 new stop loss @ 29.05
09/20/12 new stop loss @ 29.55
09/20/12 entry on gap open lower at $28.44
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.



Synaptics Inc. - SYNA - close: 22.87 change: -1.15

Stop Loss: 24.70
Target(s): 22.15
Current Gain/Loss: + 7.7%

Entry on September 26 at $24.79
Listed on September 25, 2011
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 439 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/01/12: A downgrade this morning helped accelerate SYNA's decline. Shares lost -4.7% today. The low was $22.58. Our target is $22.15 but readers may want to start taking profits now. I am lowering our stop loss down to $24.70.

NOTE: I am suggesting we go ahead and exit our Oct $25 puts at the opening bell tomorrow. Current bid is $2.25.

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this a higher-risk, more aggressive trade because SYNA has already seen a big move down but today's break under support could signal another big leg down. We want to limit our risk and keep our position size small.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short SYNA stock @ $24.79

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $25 PUT (SYNA1220v25) Entry $1.15

10/01/12 new stop loss @ 24.70, plan on exiting our October puts at the opening bell tomorrow
09/29/12 new stop loss @ 26.05, adjust exit target to $22.15



Vistaprint N.V. - VPRT - close: 33.91 change: -0.24

Stop Loss: 36.15
Target(s): 30.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.0%

Entry on September 27 at $34.60
Listed on September 26, 2011
Time Frame: 3 to 5 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 572 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/01/12: VPRT continues to underperform and lost another -0.7% today. Shares are flirting with a breakdown under their 300-dma.

Earlier Comments:
Readers may want to consider using put options to limit their risk. I do consider a higher-risk trade because the most recent data listed short interest at 28.4% of the small 21.9 million share float. There is a risk of a short squeeze.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short VPRT stock @ $34.60

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Oct $35 PUT (VPRT1220v35) Entry $2.00



CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Nu Skin Enterprises - NUS - close: 40.50 change: +1.67

Stop Loss: 40.15
Target(s): 35.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 4.0%

Entry on September 24 at $38.61
Listed on September 22, 2011
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/01/12: The short covering in NUS continued and shares accelerated higher with a +4.3% gain. The stock broke through what should have been strong resistance at $40.00. Our stop was hit at $40.15.

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this a more aggressive, higher-risk trade. There are already a lot of investors who are bearish on the stock. The most recent data listed short interest at 18% of the 51.9 million share float. That does raise our risk of a short squeeze so you may want to play the options to limit your risk to the cost of your option.

closed Position: short NUS stock @ $38.61 exit $40.15 (-4.0%)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Oct $35 PUT (NUS1220v35) entry $1.32 exit $0.60 (-54.5%)

10/01/12 stopped out at $40.15
09/25/12 new stop loss @ 40.15

chart: