Editor's Note:
The market snapped a three-day winning streak as the intraday rally faded lower today.

DWA hit our trigger this morning.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

American Intl. Group - AIG - close: 37.21 change: +0.35

Stop Loss: 34.85
Target(s): 39.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.4%

Entry on October 9 at $36.00
Listed on October 8, 2012
Time Frame: exit prior to earnings on Nov. 1st
Average Daily Volume = 44 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/18/12: AIG surged to a new 52-week high today, hitting $37.67 at its best levels. The stock pared its gains by the closing bell. I am raising our stop loss to $34.85.

Our target is $39.75 but we'll plan on exiting prior to the early November earnings report. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for AIG is bullish with a $42.50 target.

Current Position: Long AIG stock @ $36.00

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Nov $37 call (AIG1211k37) entry $0.76

10/18/12 new stop loss @ 34.85
10/15/12 new stop loss @ 34.45



AOL Inc. - AOL - close: 36.36 change: -0.71

Stop Loss: 35.49
Target(s): 39.90
Current Gain/Loss: -2.3%

Entry on October 16 at $37.23
Listed on October 15, 2012
Time Frame: exit prior to the NOV 6th earnings report
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/18/12: I warned readers last night that after yesterday's performance AOL looked like it was headed lower. The stock lost -1.9% today. The question is where will it bounce. The combination of the failed rally at $38 and the two-day pullback is starting to look bearish. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

In other news AOL announced a new product today. The company unveiled "Alto" which is a web-based email service that lets you sync up to five email accounts. You can use @gmail, @yahoo mail, @aol mail, and Apple's @mac.com email accounts with Alto. The plan is to add even more services that will work with Alto.

Suggested Position: buy AOL stock @ $37.23

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long NOV $38 call (AOL1217k38) entry $1.10



Bio-Reference Labs - BRLI - close: 32.12 change: +0.12

Stop Loss: 31.15
Target(s): 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 6.2%

Entry on October 03 at $30.25
Listed on October 2, 2012
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 232 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/18/12: BRLI saw a little bit of a shakeout this morning with a dip toward $31. The stock recovered and eventually closed in positive territory. Today's low was $31.20. I am raising our stop loss to $31.15.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to take profits now.

current Position: Long BRLI stock @ $30.25

10/18/12 new stop loss @ 31.15
10/16/12 new stop loss @ 30.95
10/11/12 new stop loss @ 30.75
10/04/12 new stop loss @ 29.90
10/03/12 new stop loss @ 29.25
10/03/12 triggered @ 30.25



Colfax Corp. - CFX - close: 36.76 change: -0.55

Stop Loss: 35.90
Target(s): 39.90
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.6%

Entry on October 01 at $37.00
Listed on September 29, 2012
Time Frame: exit prior to the late October earnings report
Average Daily Volume = 753 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/18/12: Uh-oh! The three-day bounce in CFX is failing at its early October highs. That doesn't bode well and readers may want to just exit early now. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CFX is bullish with a long-term $59 target.

*Small Positions*

Suggested Position: Long CFX stock @ $37.00

10/16/12 new stop loss @ 35.90
10/13/12 new stop loss @ 35.40
10/01/12 triggered @ 37.00



DreamWorks Animation - DWA - close: 21.58 change: +1.33

Stop Loss: 19.75
Target(s): 22.00
Current Gain/Loss: +4.8%

Entry on October 18 at $20.60
Listed on October 17, 2012
Time Frame: exit prior to the Oct. 30th earnings report
Average Daily Volume = 902 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/18/12: Our new DWA trade is off to a strong start. Just as expected when DWA broke through resistance at $20.50 shares started to see a short squeeze. The stock surged to a +6.5% gain on the session. Our exit target is $22.00 but more aggressive traders could aim higher.

Earlier Comments:
The stock could see a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 43% of the 63 million share float. We do not want to hold over the October 30th earnings report.

current Position: Long DWA stock @ $20.60

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long NOV $20 call (DWA1217k20) Entry $1.45

10/18/12 triggered @ 20.60



Plum Creek Timber - PCL - close: 44.51 change: +0.36

Stop Loss: 42.95
Target(s): 44.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.2%

Entry on October 15 at $43.15
Listed on October 13, 2012
Time Frame: exit prior to earnings on Oct. 29th (not yet confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/18/12: PCL continues to post gains and is starting to look short-term overbought with a streak of five gains in a row. I am adjusting our exit target down to $44.75 and raising our stop loss to $42.95. Readers may want to exit early.

current Position: Long PCL stock @ $43.15

10/18/12 new stop loss @ 42.95, adjust target to $44.75
10/16/12 new stop loss @ 42.40
10/15/12 triggered at $43.15



BEARISH Play Updates

Navistar Intl. - NAV - close: 20.54 change: -0.62

Stop Loss: 21.25
Target(s): 16.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened

Entry on October xx at $ xx.xx
Listed on October 16, 2012
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
10/18/12: There was no follow through on yesterday's bounce in NAV.

Earlier Comments:
The September low was near $19.80. I am suggesting a trigger to open bearish positions at $19.75. The 2008 lows were near $15.50 so we're going to target a drop to $16.00. FYI: There is already a growing amount of bearish pressure on the stock with the most recent data listing short interest at 15% of the 47.4 million share float.

Trigger @ 19.75

Suggested Position: short NAV stock @ (trigger)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

buy the NOV $20 PUT (NAV1217w20)



Sohu.com - SOHU - close: 39.31 change: -0.44

Stop Loss: 41.01
Target(s): 36.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.6%

Entry on October 10 at $39.55
Listed on October 9, 2012
Time Frame: Exit prior to the late October earnings report
Average Daily Volume = 472 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/18/12: SOHU displayed some volatility this morning. Shares rallied past their 10-dma and hit $40.44 before reversing under their 100-dma and eventually closing down on the session. I am lowering our stop loss to $41.01.

Readers can use today's intraday reversal lower as a new entry point.

Keep in mind that we want to exit prior to the late October earnings report.

Earlier Comments:
I have to warn you that SOHU can be a volatile stock so we need to limit our position size to reduce our risk or consider trading the options. Our target is $36.00. More aggressive traders could aim for the $34.00 area.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short SOHU stock @ $39.55

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Nov $37.50 PUT (SOHU1211w37.5) entry $1.85

10/18/12 new stop loss @ 41.01



Titanium Metals - TIE - close: 12.28 change: +0.03

Stop Loss: 12.65
Target(s): 11.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.0%

Entry on October 4 at $12.41
Listed on October 3, 2012
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/18/12: Thursday was a relatively quiet session for TIE. Shares churned sideways. There is no change from my prior comments. More conservative traders might want to consider adjusting their stop loss lower. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short TIE stock @ $12.41

10/13/12 new stop loss @ 12.65



Trimble Navigation - TRMB - close: 47.65 change: -0.34

Stop Loss: 48.55
Target(s): 42.50
Current Gain/Loss: unopened

Entry on October xx at $ xx.xx
Listed on October 10, 2012
Time Frame: exit prior to earnings on Nov. 1st
Average Daily Volume = 697 thousand
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
10/18/12: We suspected that yesterday was a new failed rally and lower high. However, we want to see confirmation before launching positions.

Earlier Comments:
I am suggesting small bearish positions if TRMB can trade at $46.50 or lower. If triggered our target is $42.50 but we want to exit prior to the next earnings report on November 1st.

Trigger @ 46.50 (Small Positions)

Suggested Position: short TRMB stock @ (trigger)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

buy the Nov $45 PUT (TRMB1211w45)