Editor's Note:
The market's major indices rebounded off their intraday lows on Monday. That's a potentially bullish development for tomorrow.

We did see our TOL trade triggered today.

I am suggesting an early exit from our TIE trade tomorrow morning.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

American Intl. Group - AIG - close: 35.55 change: -0.15

Stop Loss: 34.85
Target(s): 39.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.3%

Entry on October 9 at $36.00
Listed on October 8, 2012
Time Frame: exit prior to earnings on Nov. 1st
Average Daily Volume = 44 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/22/12: AIG did indeed dip toward support near $35.00. Traders bought the dip and shares are bouncing. Readers can use this rebound off support as a new bullish entry point. Just remember that we plan to exit prior to the Nov. 1st earnings report.

Our target is $39.75 but we'll plan on exiting prior to the early November earnings report. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for AIG is bullish with a $42.50 target.

Current Position: Long AIG stock @ $36.00

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Nov $37 call (AIG1211k37) entry $0.76

10/22/12 today's bounce of $35.00 looks like a new entry point.
10/18/12 new stop loss @ 34.85
10/15/12 new stop loss @ 34.45



AOL Inc. - AOL - close: 35.78 change: -0.49

Stop Loss: 35.49
Target(s): 39.90
Current Gain/Loss: -3.9%

Entry on October 16 at $37.23
Listed on October 15, 2012
Time Frame: exit prior to the NOV 6th earnings report
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/22/12: The situation does not look good for our AOL trades. The stock spiked higher at the open and immediately reversed lower. AOL closed on its lows for the day and that doesn't bode well for tomorrow's open. Honestly, I think odds are good that AOL will hit our stop loss at $35.49 tomorrow. I am not suggesting new positions.

Suggested Position: buy AOL stock @ $37.23

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long NOV $38 call (AOL1217k38) entry $1.10

10/22/12 AOL looks poised to hit our stop tomorrow
10/20/12 readers may want to raise their stops toward Friday's low (35.73)



Bank of America - BAC - close: 9.55 change: +0.11

Stop Loss: 9.25
Target(s): 10.45
Current Gain/Loss: unopened

Entry on October xx at $ xx.xx
Listed on October 18, 2012
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 141 million
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
10/22/12: BAC was showing some relative strength today. This stock looks poised to breakout higher from its pennant-shaped consolidation. Aggressive traders could jump in early.

I am suggesting a trigger to launch bullish positions at $9.65 with a stop loss at $9.25. Our multi-week target is $10.45.

Trigger @ 9.65

Suggested Position: buy BAC stock @ (trigger)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

buy the 2013 Jan $10 call (BAC1319a10)



DreamWorks Animation - DWA - close: 20.83 change: +0.05

Stop Loss: 19.75
Target(s): 22.00
Current Gain/Loss: +1.1%

Entry on October 18 at $20.60
Listed on October 17, 2012
Time Frame: exit prior to the Oct. 30th earnings report
Average Daily Volume = 902 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/22/12: Today was a non-event for DWA. Shares churned sideways following Friday's pullback. There is still a chance that DWA will retest either support at $20.50 or $20.00.

I am not suggesting new positions.

Our exit target is $22.00 but more aggressive traders could aim higher.

Earlier Comments:
The stock could see a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 43% of the 63 million share float. We do not want to hold over the October 30th earnings report.

current Position: Long DWA stock @ $20.60

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long NOV $20 call (DWA1217k20) Entry $1.45

10/18/12 triggered @ 20.60



Mattress Firm - MFRM - close: 32.46 change: -0.78

Stop Loss: 32.40
Target(s): 39.50
Current Gain/Loss: unopened

Entry on October xx at $ xx.xx
Listed on October 20, 2012
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 405 thousand
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
10/22/12: Hmm... MFRM just snapped a three-day winning streak. Shares underperformed the market with a -2.3% decline. Currently we are still on the sidelines waiting for a breakout higher.

Earlier Comments:
MFRM could see a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 30% of the very, very small 9.0 million share float. MFRM is currently consolidating under resistance at $34.00.

I am suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $34.10. Our target is $39.50.

Trigger @ 34.10

Suggested Position: buy MFRM stock @ (trigger)



Plum Creek Timber - PCL - close: 44.23 change: +0.15

Stop Loss: 42.95
Target(s): 44.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.2%

Entry on October 15 at $43.15
Listed on October 13, 2012
Time Frame: exit prior to earnings on Oct. 29th (not yet confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/22/12: PCL saw some volatility this morning with shares spiking down to $43.34. It looks like the convergence of the 20-dma, 10-dma, and 30-dma in that area acted as support and PCL bounced. More conservative traders could raise their stops toward $43.25. I am not suggesting new positions.

current Position: Long PCL stock @ $43.15

10/18/12 new stop loss @ 42.95, adjust target to $44.75
10/16/12 new stop loss @ 42.40
10/15/12 triggered at $43.15



Toll Brothers - TOL - close: 34.96 change: -0.14

Stop Loss: 34.30
Target(s): 38.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.8%

Entry on October 22 at $35.60
Listed on October 20, 2012
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 3.2 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/22/12: Our new trade on TOL is open but the lack of follow through is disappointing. Shares spiked to $35.68 this morning and quickly reversed lower. Shares appeared to find support at the 30-dma this afternoon but I would not launch positions at this time. Wait for a new rally past $35.60 again before initiating trades.

Earlier Comments:
The $37 level could be resistance but we are aiming for $38.50.

current Position: Long TOL stock @ $35.60

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long 2013 Jan $38 call (TOL1319a38) Entry $1.35*

10/22/12 TOL hit our entry point at $35.60 today. *option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.



BEARISH Play Updates

Navistar Intl. - NAV - close: 19.85 change: +0.81

Stop Loss: 20.55
Target(s): 16.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.5%

Entry on October 19 at $19.75
Listed on October 16, 2012
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/22/12: Ouch! NAV produced a +4.25% bounce today. As painful as the rebound is it was not completely unexpected. Over the weekend I suggested waiting for a bounce into the $19.75-20.00 zone as a new entry point and we got it. The $20.00 level should be resistance. More conservative traders could tighten their stops.

Earlier Comments:
The 2008 lows were near $15.50 so we're going to target a drop to $16.00. FYI: There is already a growing amount of bearish pressure on the stock with the most recent data listing short interest at 15% of the 47.4 million share float.

current Position: short NAV stock @ $19.75

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long NOV $20 PUT (NAV1217w20) entry $1.55

10/20/12 new stop loss @ 20.55
10/19/12 triggered @ 19.75



Sohu.com - SOHU - close: 38.08 change: -0.36

Stop Loss: 40.55
Target(s): 36.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.7%

Entry on October 10 at $39.55
Listed on October 9, 2012
Time Frame: Exit prior to the Nov. 5th earnings report
Average Daily Volume = 472 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/22/12: SOHU continues to underperform the market and lost another -0.9% on Monday. The company also gave our trade more time. SOHU just announced they will report earnings on November 5th.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
I have to warn you that SOHU can be a volatile stock so we need to limit our position size to reduce our risk or consider trading the options. Our target is $36.00. More aggressive traders could aim for the $34.00 area.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short SOHU stock @ $39.55

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Nov $37.50 PUT (SOHU1211w37.5) entry $1.85

10/20/12 new stop loss @ 40.55
10/18/12 new stop loss @ 41.01



Titanium Metals - TIE - close: 12.35 change: +0.23

Stop Loss: 12.65
Target(s): 11.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.5%

Entry on October 4 at $12.41
Listed on October 3, 2012
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/22/12: I am growing concerned that TIE may have found a bottom near the $12.00 level. We want to exit positions immediately tomorrow morning at the opening bell.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short TIE stock @ $12.41

10/22/12 prepare to exit at the open tomorrow
10/13/12 new stop loss @ 12.65



Trimble Navigation - TRMB - close: 46.23 change: +0.22

Stop Loss: 48.55
Target(s): 42.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.6%

Entry on October 19 at $46.50
Listed on October 10, 2012
Time Frame: exit prior to earnings on Nov. 1st
Average Daily Volume = 697 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/22/12: TRMB bounced with a gap open this morning but traders sold the bounce with shares paring their gains. I suspect the market might bounce tomorrow so readers may want to wait for TRMB to see a failed rally near $47.00 or its 10-dma before launching new bearish positions here.

Earlier Comments:
If triggered our target is $42.50 but we want to exit prior to the next earnings report on November 1st.

(Small Positions)

current Position: short TRMB stock @ $46.50

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Nov $45 PUT (TRMB1211w45) Entry $1.40

10/19/12 triggered @ 46.50