Editor's Note:
We are updating several stop losses tonight. Plus, our TOO trade has been triggered. I am suggesting an early exit on our CHKP trade.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Alaska Air Group - ALK - close: 40.52 change: -0.80

Stop Loss: 39.95
Target(s): 44.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.6%

Entry on November 13 at $41.60
Listed on November 12, 2012
Time Frame: 6 to 9 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 768 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/14/12: I feared this would happen. I mentioned yesterday that Tuesday's session looked like a false breakout and bull trap pattern. Today's drop only reinforces that concept. ALK did find support at the 10-dma but if this level fails then ALK will likely test the $40.00 level soon. I am not suggesting new positions and readers may want to exit early now.

Earlier Comments:
We do want to keep our position size small.

current Position: Long ALK stock @ $41.60



Ball Corp. - BLL - close: 43.00 change: -0.37

Stop Loss: 42.40
Target(s): 48.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.9%

Entry on November 06 at $43.85
Listed on November 3, 2012
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 687 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/14/12: I warned readers yesterday that BLL would probably dip to its 50-dma. It's not there yet but it's getting closer. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: Long BLL stock @ $43.85

11/06/12 triggered @ 43.85



EXtra Space Storage - EXR - close: 34.68 change: -0.65

Stop Loss: 34.25
Target(s): 39.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.3%

Entry on November 08 at $35.50
Listed on November 7, 2012
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 700 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/14/12: It almost looks like something happened midday that sparked a steady sell-off in shares of EXR. The breakdown under its 10-dma is short-term bearish but traders did buy the dip at short-term support near $34.50. I strongly suspect that if the market continues to sink tomorrow we will see EXR hit our stop loss at $34.25.

current Position: Long EXR stock @ $35.50



Georgia Gulf - GGC - close: 39.75 change: -1.30

Stop Loss: 39.40
Target(s): 44.90
Current Gain/Loss: unopened

Entry on November xx at $ xx.xx
Listed on November 13, 2012
Time Frame: 6 to 9 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 773 thousand
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
11/14/12: Ouch! After showing relative strength yesterday GGC gave back all of its Tuesday gains. The high today was only $41.25.

I am suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $41.50. If triggered our target is $44.90. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for GGC is bullish with a quadruple top breakout buy signal and a long-term $73 target.

Trigger @ 41.50

Suggested Position: buy GGC stock @ (trigger)



McMoRan Exploration - MMR - close: 12.64 change: -0.06

Stop Loss: 11.90
Target(s): 15.00-16.00 zone
Current Gain/Loss: -2.8%

Entry on November 12 at $13.01
Listed on November 10, 2012
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/14/12: MMR continues to churn between short-term resistance at $13.00 and support at $12.50ish. If the market continues lower we will likely see MMR testing the $12.00 level soon.

current Position: Long MMR stock @ $13.01



Taiwan Semiconductor - TSM - close: 15.92 chagne: -0.27

Stop Loss: 15.25
Target(s): 18.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.5%

Entry on November 13 at $16.15
Listed on November 10, 2012
Time Frame: 6 to 9 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 10.3 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/14/12: TSM also broke down below its 10-dma today. Odds are good that we will see shares dip toward their 40-dma near $15.60. The stock might try and fill the gap with a dip to $15.50. Wait for a bounce in the $15.50 area before considering new positions.

current Position: Long TSM stock @ $16.15

11/13/12 triggered @ 16.15
11/12/12 adjust trigger to $16.15



BEARISH Play Updates

Check Point Software - CHKP - close: 44.23 change: -0.04

Stop Loss: 45.15
Target(s): 40.65
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.2%

Entry on November 09 at $43.72
Listed on November 8, 2012
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 4.0 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/14/12: CHKP still looks very bearish, especially with its long-term trend of lower highs. Yet shares are not moving lower even though the market is falling. I am throwing in the towel on our CHKP trade and suggest an early exit tomorrow morning.

current Position: short CHKP stock @ $43.72

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long DEC $43 PUT (CHKP1222x43) entry $1.45*

11/14/12 prepare to exit tomorrow morning
11/12/12 adjust stop loss to $45.15
11/09/12 play opened on gap down at $43.72, trigger was $43.80
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.



Crocs, Inc. - CROX - close: 12.20 change: -0.41

Stop Loss: 13.05
Target(s): 10.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.6%

Entry on November 07 at $12.40
Listed on November 6, 2012
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/14/12: There was no follow through on the oversold bounce in CROX. The stock reversed with a -3.2% drop today. Readers might want to start adjusting their stop loss lower. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Remember that we want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

*Small Positions*

Suggested Position: short CROX stock @ $12.40

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Dec $12 PUT (CROX1222x12) Entry $0.55

11/07/12 triggered @ $12.40



Hewlett-Packard - HPQ - close: 13.14 change: -0.00

Stop Loss: 14.05
Target(s): 11.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 5.3%

Entry on November 01 at $13.88
Listed on October 31, 2012
Time Frame: exit prior to the Nov. 20th earnings report
Average Daily Volume = 35.7 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/14/12: Wednesday proved to be a quiet day for HPQ. The stock closed unchanged on the session. I am adjusting our stop loss down a little bit to $14.05. More conservative traders may want to use a stop loss near $13.80 or $13.70 instead. We want to exit prior to the Nov. 20th earnings report.

current Position: Short HPQ stock @ $13.88

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long DEC $13 PUT (HPQ1222x13) Entry $0.47

11/14/12 new stop loss @ 14.05
11/12/12 new stop loss @ 14.15
11/07/12 HPQ has reversed lower with the market
11/06/12 HPQ is showing strength. Readers may want to exit early now!



Imperva Inc. - IMPV - close: 29.14 change: +0.18

Stop Loss: 31.05
Target(s): 25.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.6%

Entry on November 13 at $29.60
Listed on November 12, 2012
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 221 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/14/12: IMPV produced a little oversold bounce this morning but gains faded by the closing bell. I would still consider new positions at current levels.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small because IMPV can be a volatile stock. Our target is $25.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for IMPV is bearish with a $25.00 target.

current Position: short IMPV stock @ $29.60



Netgear Inc. - NTGR - close: 33.52 change: -0.54

Stop Loss: 35.15
Target(s): 30.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.8%

Entry on November 07 at $34.50
Listed on November 3, 2012
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 381 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/14/12: Last night we were concerned that NTGR might rally this morning. Shares did move higher but fortunately the rally ran out of steam at its 10-dma. NTGR eventually reversed into a -1.5% decline. I am lowering our stop loss down to $35.15.

current Position: short NTGR stock @ $34.50

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long DEC $33 PUT (NTGR1222x33) entry $1.00

11/14/12 new stop loss @ 35.15
11/13/12 caution, CSCO's earnings could have an impact on NTGR tomorrow
11/07/12 triggered @ 34.50



Teekay Offshore - TOO - close: 24.75 change: -1.25

Stop Loss: 26.30
Target(s): 1st target 24.05, 2nd target 22.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.9%

Entry on November 14 at $25.75
Listed on November 13, 2012
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 279 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/14/12: Our new play on TOO is off to a great start. Shares opened at $25.90 and quickly plunged to a -4.8% decline and new 2012 lows. Today's high was $26.16. I am lowering our stop loss down to $26.30.

Our first target is $24.05. Our second, longer-term target is $22.50.

current Position: short TOO stock @ $25.75

11/14/12 new stop loss @ 26.30