Editor's Note:
Stocks rebounded intraday on Friday and the market looks poised to bounce toward Thanksgiving.

We did see both ALK and EXR get stopped out. Meanwhile SPLK was triggered. We want to exit our HPQ trade on Monday morning.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Ball Corp. - BLL - close: 43.34 change: +0.10

Stop Loss: 42.55
Target(s): 48.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.2%

Entry on November 06 at $43.85
Listed on November 3, 2012
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 687 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/17/12: BLL briefly traded under its simple 50-dma and then rebounded. I would wait for a new rally past $43.60 before launching new bullish positions. Friday's low was $42.62. We will raise our stop loss to $42.55.

current Position: Long BLL stock @ $43.85

11/17/12 new stop loss @ 42.55
11/06/12 triggered @ 43.85

chart:



Georgia Gulf - GGC - close: 41.40 change: +1.14

Stop Loss: 39.15
Target(s): 44.90
Current Gain/Loss: unopened

Entry on November xx at $ xx.xx
Listed on November 13, 2012
Time Frame: 6 to 9 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 773 thousand
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
11/17/12: GGC displayed relative strength on Friday. Traders bought the dip near its 10-dma and the stock soared to a +2.8% gain. The high was only $41.46 so our trade is not open yet but GGC is definitely poised to hit our bullish trigger at $41.50 soon. Note, I am adjusting our stop loss to $39.15 so it's just under the Thursday low.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for GGC is bullish with a quadruple top breakout buy signal and a long-term $73 target.

Trigger @ 41.50

Suggested Position: buy GGC stock @ (trigger)

11/17/12 adjust the stop to $39.15

chart:



McMoRan Exploration - MMR - close: 12.64 change: -0.06

Stop Loss: 11.90
Target(s): 15.00-16.00 zone
Current Gain/Loss: -7.8%

Entry on November 12 at $13.01
Listed on November 10, 2012
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/17/12: I could not find any news to explain the relative weakness in MMR on Friday. Oil prices were up. The oil index was up. The oil services index was up. Yet MMR underperformed with a -2.9% plunge and a close under technical support at the 50-dma. The low on Friday was $11.95. Odds are very high that MMR will hit our stop loss at $11.90 on Monday morning.

current Position: Long MMR stock @ $13.01

chart:



Splunk, Inc. - SPLK - close: 28.50 change: +1.11

Stop Loss: 26.75
Target(s): 31.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.4%

Entry on November 16 at $27.55
Listed on November 15, 2012
Time Frame: exit prior to earnings on Nov. 29th
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/17/12: Our new play on SPLK is open and the stock is off to a strong start. Shares hit our entry point at $27.55 and continued to rally, ending the session with a +4.0% gain. Right now we are aiming for $31.50 but more conservative traders may want to take profits early near the $30.00 level instead.

Please note our new stop loss at $26.75

Earlier Comments:
SPLK could see a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 19% of the 54.1 million share float.

*small positions*

current Position: Long SPLK stock @ $27.55

11/17/12 new stop loss @ 26.75
11/16/12 triggered @ 27.55

chart:



Taiwan Semiconductor - TSM - close: 16.19 chagne: +0.14

Stop Loss: 15.75
Target(s): 18.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.2%

Entry on November 13 at $16.15
Listed on November 10, 2012
Time Frame: 6 to 9 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 10.3 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/17/12: The semiconductor sector had a terrible week but TSM managed to weather the sell-off pretty well. Traders bought the dip on Friday midday and TSM rallied to an +0.8% gain. Readers can use a new rally past $16.30 as a bullish entry point. I am raising our stop loss to $15.75.

current Position: Long TSM stock @ $16.15

11/17/12 new stop loss @ 15.75
11/13/12 triggered @ 16.15
11/12/12 adjust trigger to $16.15

chart:



BEARISH Play Updates

Crocs, Inc. - CROX - close: 12.03 change: -0.16

Stop Loss: 12.75
Target(s): 10.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.0%

Entry on November 07 at $12.40
Listed on November 6, 2012
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/17/12: CROX underperformed the market on Friday with a -1.3% decline. Shares look poised to finally break support at the $12.00 level. I am lowering our stop loss down to $12.75, which is just above last week's high. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Remember that we want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

*Small Positions*

Suggested Position: short CROX stock @ $12.40

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Dec $12 PUT (CROX1222x12) Entry $0.55

11/17/12 new stop loss @ 12.75
11/07/12 triggered @ $12.40

chart:



Hewlett-Packard - HPQ - close: 12.85 change: -0.23

Stop Loss: 14.05
Target(s): 11.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 7.4%

Entry on November 01 at $13.88
Listed on October 31, 2012
Time Frame: exit prior to the Nov. 20th earnings report
Average Daily Volume = 35.7 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/17/12: It's time for us to exit our HPQ trade. The stock spiked down to $12.36 on Friday and then bounced back to trim its loss down to -1.7% on the session. I suspect the market will bounce next week and combine that with HPQ's earnings due out next Tuesday and we have reason to exit.

I am suggesting an immediate exit on Monday morning.

current Position: Short HPQ stock @ $13.88

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long DEC $13 PUT (HPQ1222x13) Entry $0.47

11/17/12 exit immediately on Monday morning
11/14/12 new stop loss @ 14.05
11/12/12 new stop loss @ 14.15
11/07/12 HPQ has reversed lower with the market
11/06/12 HPQ is showing strength. Readers may want to exit early now!

chart:



Imperva Inc. - IMPV - close: 28.91 change: -0.33

Stop Loss: 31.05
Target(s): 25.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.3%

Entry on November 13 at $29.60
Listed on November 12, 2012
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 221 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/17/12: IMPV underperformed the market on Friday with a -1.1% decline. I am still concerned that if the market bounces that IMPV will follow. I am expecting the stock to find resistance at $30.00, at $30.25, and the 100-dma. Currently our stop loss is at $31.05. More conservative traders may want to lower their stop loss instead. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small because IMPV can be a volatile stock. Our target is $25.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for IMPV is bearish with a $25.00 target.

current Position: short IMPV stock @ $29.60

chart:



Netgear Inc. - NTGR - close: 33.46 change: -0.04

Stop Loss: 35.15
Target(s): 30.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.0%

Entry on November 07 at $34.50
Listed on November 3, 2012
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 381 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/17/12: NTGR dipped to a new relative low at $32.48 before reversing higher on Friday. At the very least I would expect this bounce to carry NTGR to short-term technical resistance at the 10-dma (currently 34.20). At the moment our stop loss is at $35.15. More conservative traders may want to adjust their stop loss lower. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: short NTGR stock @ $34.50

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long DEC $33 PUT (NTGR1222x33) entry $1.00

11/14/12 new stop loss @ 35.15
11/13/12 caution, CSCO's earnings could have an impact on NTGR tomorrow
11/07/12 triggered @ 34.50

chart:



Teekay Offshore - TOO - close: 26.07 change: +0.96

Stop Loss: 26.30
Target(s): 1st target 24.05, 2nd target 22.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.2%

Entry on November 14 at $25.75
Listed on November 13, 2012
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 279 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/17/12: The big rally in TOO on Friday is definitely a surprise. The most recent data does not list any significant amount of short interest so it's unlikely that shares would see any sort of short squeeze. TOO's +3.8% rebound on Friday places the stock back above prior support and what should have been new resistance at $26.00. If there is any follow through on Monday then TOO will likely hit our stop loss at $26.30. I am not suggesting new positions.

Earlier Comments:
Our first target is $24.05. Our second, longer-term target is $22.50.

current Position: short TOO stock @ $25.75

11/14/12 new stop loss @ 26.30

chart:



Vistaprint N.V. - VPRT - close: 29.10 change: -0.10

Stop Loss: 30.25
Target(s): 25.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.5%

Entry on November 15 at 28.68
Listed on November 14, 2012
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 364 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/17/12: Good news! The bounce in VPRT on Friday ran out of steam near $29.50. Shares were actually fading lower into the close instead of bouncing higher with the market. Technically this looks like a new bearish entry point but given that the market looks poised to bounce I would hesitate to launch new positions.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to keep our position size small.

current Position: short VPRT stock @ $28.68

chart:



CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Alaska Air Group - ALK - close: 40.72 change: -0.16

Stop Loss: 39.95
Target(s): 44.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 4.0%

Entry on November 13 at $41.60
Listed on November 12, 2012
Time Frame: 6 to 9 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 768 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/17/12: ALK spiked lower on Friday morning and hit our stop loss at $39.95 before paring its losses.

Earlier Comments:
We do want to keep our position size small.

closed Position: Long ALK stock @ $41.60 exit $39.95 (- 4.0%)

11/16/12 stopped out at $39.95

chart:



EXtra Space Storage - EXR - close: 34.32 change: -0.07

Stop Loss: 34.25
Target(s): 39.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.5%

Entry on November 08 at $35.50
Listed on November 7, 2012
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 700 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/17/12: Shares of EXR punctured its 50-dma on an intraday basis before trimming its losses. Our stop loss was hit at $34.25 in the process. Readers may want to keep EXR on their watch list. In the past dips to the simple 100-dma have proved to be bullish entry points. Right now the 100-dma is at $33.18.

closed Position: Long EXR stock @ $35.50 exit $34.25 (-3.5%)

11/16/12 stopped out at $34.25

chart: