Editor's Note:
The stock market's rally seems to be slowing down. We are raising a few stop losses tonight.

SPLK was triggered. SONC and SYNA were stopped out. We want to exit TEX on Tuesday.

The market is closed on Monday for President's day.


Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Asbury Automotive Group - ABG - close: 36.08 change: -0.16

Stop Loss: 35.49
Target(s): 38.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.4%

Entry on January 24 at $35.25
Listed on January 23, 2013
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings on Feb. 19th
Average Daily Volume = 275 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/16/13: The rally in ABG stalled this past week. Investors seem to be waiting for the company's earnings report. We were planning to exit prior to the earnings report on Tuesday morning. Normally there is too much risk and too many variables that can spark a sell-off following a company's earnings report. Yet 2012 saw U.S. vehicle sales surge +13% from the year before to 14.5 million vehicles. That was the biggest jump in auto sales since 1984. Currently industry analysts are expecting 2013 to see U.S. vehicle sales climb up to a 15.1 to 15.4 million unit pace.

There is a decent chance that ABG will issue an upside surprise when they report earnings on Tuesday morning. Wall Street is expecting a profit of 65 cents a share.

We will try and mitigate our risk by raising the stop loss to $35.49. Our exit target remains $38.50. More aggressive traders could aim higher.

Earlier Comments:
Please note that we do want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

*Small positions*

current Position: Long ABG stock @ $35.25

02/16/13 new stop loss @ 35.49
02/12/13 new stop loss @ 34.85
02/05/13 new stop loss @ 34.40

chart:



Conns Inc. - CONN - close: 31.10 change: -0.10

Stop Loss: 28.85
Target(s): 33.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 5.2%

Entry on February 05 at $29.55
Listed on February 4, 2013
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 416 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/16/13: This past week saw CONN rally to new five-year highs. Yet the rally has stalled at the $32.00 level. Shares dipped toward technical support at the 10-dma on Friday. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our target is $33.50. More aggressive traders could aim higher. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CONN is bullish with a long-term $48.00 target.

current Position: Long CONN stock @ $29.55

02/12/13 new stop loss @ 28.85
02/09/13 new stop loss @ 28.45

chart:



Deckers Outdoor Corp. - DECK - close: 42.83 change: -0.87

Stop Loss: 41.40
Target(s): 49.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.6%

Entry on February 12 at $44.41
Listed on February 11, 2013
Time Frame: exit PRIOR to earnings on Feb. 28th
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/16/13: It looks like the rally in DECK has reversed at round-number resistance near $45.00, which shares tagged on Tuesday. DECK has been consolidating lower the last three days. It could be just a normal, healthy pullback or it could be something worse. Friday did see the selling stall near its rising 10-dma and 200-dma, which could be potential technical support. Right now we have a stop loss at $41.40. More conservative traders may want to consider raising their stop closer to the $42.00 level instead.

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this an aggressive, higher-risk trade. DECK can be a volatile stock. Thus we want to keep our position size small. It is worth noting that if this strength continues DECK could see a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at almost 44% of the small 30.9 million share float. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report. At the moment it looks like that report might come out on Feb. 21st but the date has not been confirmed. More aggressive traders may want to buy the call options.

*Small Positions*

current Position: Long DECK stock @ $44.41

chart:



Gilead Sciences - GILD - close: 41.60 change: +0.20

Stop Loss: 39.85
Target(s): 44.85
Current Gain/Loss: +1.0%

Entry on February 14 at $41.18
Listed on February 13, 2013
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 8.0 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/16/13: This past week saw GILD rally to new all-time highs. On Friday the stock traded in a narrow range and closed unchanged on the session. Overall the trend is up and I would still consider new positions here. However, the situation may change on Tuesday morning (the market is closed on Monday).

On Friday evening, almost three hours after the market had closed, GILD issued a press release concerning a voluntary recall for one lot of its Vistide treatment. Now normally when a company wants to sweep bad news under the rug and hide it from investors they tend to issue a press release over the weekend, especially Friday night, to give the market a couple of days to digest to news and hopefully lessen any knee-jerk reactions. Now I can not say that's why GILD issued this release on Friday but it is suspect. Friday's news may not impact Vistide sales at all, which may not be that big of GILD's business to begin with. According to the press release " Vistide is indicated for the treatment of cytomegalovirus (CMV) retinitis in patients with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)." Thus far no patient appears to have been effected by this issue.

Nimble traders could watch for a dip into the $40.50-40.00 zone and use a dip or a bounce near $40.00 as a new bullish entry point.

We do want to keep our position size small. Biotech stocks can be volatile.
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for GILD is bullish with a $47.50 target.

*Small Positions*

current Position: Long GILD stock @ $41.18

chart:



Morgan Stanley - MS - close: 23.87 change: +0.04

Stop Loss: 22.45
Target(s): 26.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.1%

Entry on February 01 at $23.15
Listed on January 30, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 27 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/16/13: MS has been slowly drifting higher all week. Traders have been buying dips at the rising 10-dma. The relative strength is encouraging but I am not suggesting new positions. We are raising our stop loss to $22.45.

Small Positions*

current Position: Long MS stock @ $23.15

02/16/13 new stop loss @ 22.45

chart:



Ocwen Financial - OCN - close: 40.56 change: -0.47

Stop Loss: 39.65
Target(s): 44.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.0%

Entry on February 07 at $41.37
Listed on February 6, 2013
Time Frame: Exit prior to the Feb. 28th earnings
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/16/13: OCN hit some profit taking on Friday with a -1.1% decline. The stock has broken down below its 10-dma but should find round-number support at the $40.00 mark. Wait for a bounce off $40.00 before considering new bullish positions. We want to exit prior to the earnings report on Feb. 28th.

*Small Positions*

current Position: Long OCN stock @ $41.37

chart:



North American Palladium - PAL - close: 1.76 change: -0.09

Stop Loss: 1.55
Target(s): 2.45
Current Gain/Loss: + 6.7%

Entry on January 14 at $ 1.65
Listed on January 12, 2013
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings on Feb. 21
Average Daily Volume = 2.8 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/16/13: The volatility in PAL continues. Precious metals tanked on Friday and that pushed PAL lower. The stock actually gapped open lower at $1.79 and dipped to the 30-dma at $1.72 before paring its losses. Shares gave up -4.8% by the closing bell. More conservative traders may want to abandon ship right now thanks to Friday's session producing a bearish breakdown below a trend line of higher lows.

We only have a few more days left. PAL is scheduled to report earnings on Feb. 21st. We do not want to hold over the report. Therefore, if we are not stopped out first, then we'll plan on closing positions on Feb. 20th at the closing bell.

current Position: long PAL stock @ $1.65

02/16/13 prepare to exit on Feb. 20th ahead of the earnings report
02/06/13 adjusted time frame for earnings on Feb. 21st
01/30/13 new stop loss @ 1.55

chart:



Progressive Corp. - PGR - close: 24.19 change: +0.19

Stop Loss: 22.95
Target(s): 26.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.8%

Entry on February 11 at $23.52
Listed on February 9, 2013
Time Frame: 9 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/16/13: It was a great week for PGR with the stock soaring to new multi-year highs. After some profit taking on Thursday traders bought the dip on Friday with a +0.79% gain. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: Long PGR stock @ $23.52

02/13/13 new stop loss @ 22.95

chart:



Synopsys Inc. - SNPS - close: 34.54 change: +0.21

Stop Loss: 33.85
Target(s): 37.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.2%

Entry on February 06 at $34.25
Listed on February 2, 2013
Time Frame: exit prior to the February 20th earnings
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/16/13: SNPS displayed some relative strength on Friday and looks poised to breakout from its recent sideways trading range. We only have two days left. The market is closed on Monday and SNPS is due to report earnings on Feb. 20th after the closing bell. We will plan on closing positions on the 20th at the closing bell. I am raising our stop loss to $33.85.

current Position: Long SNPS stock @ $34.25

02/16/13 new stop loss at $33.85, prepare to exit on Feb. 20th at the close

chart:



Splunk, Inc. - SPLK - close: 34.98 change: -0.10

Stop Loss: 33.75
Target(s): 39.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.3%

Entry on February 15 at $35.44
Listed on February 14, 2013
Time Frame: exit PRIOR to earnings on Feb. 28th
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/16/13: Our new trade on SPLK is open. The stock gapped open higher on Friday morning at $35.44. That was above our suggested trigger to launch positions at $35.30. The trade is open. Unfortunately, SPLK gave back all of its early morning gains.

The mid afternoon high was near $35.36. I would wait for a new rally past $35.40 before launching new positions.

Earlier Comments:
A breakout here could spark a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest a 16% of the 55.6 million share float.

current Position: Long SPLK stock @ $35.44

02/15/13 trade opened on gap higher at $35.44, trigger was $35.30

chart:



Symantec Corp - SYMC - close: 22.53 change: -0.14

Stop Loss: 21.95
Target(s): 24.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.0%

Entry on February 06 at $22.30
Listed on February 5, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 10 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/16/13: The rally in SYMC could be in trouble. Upward momentum has slowed. Plus, shares reversed twice near $22.90 this past week. That could be a short-term bearish double top pattern. If shares breakdown under their 10-dma it could spark a drop toward $21.60 or $21.00.

I am raising our stop loss up to $21.95. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

*Small positions*

current Position: long SYMC stock @ $22.30

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Mar $23 call (SYMC1316c23) entry $0.38

02/16/13 new stop loss @ 21.95

chart:



Terex Corp. - TEX - close: 34.92 change: -0.08

Stop Loss: 33.95
Target(s): 38.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.6%

Entry on February 11 at $33.71
Listed on February 9, 2013
Time Frame: exit prior to earnings on Feb. 19th
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/16/13: Friday was a quiet day for TEX with the stock trading sideways in a narrow range. The company is scheduled to report earnings on Feb. 19th after the closing bell. We will plan on closing positions on the 19th at the close to avoid holding over the announcement. Given our time frame I am raising the stop loss to $33.95.

current Position: Long TEX stock @ $33.71

02/16/13 new stop loss @ 33.95, prepare to exit on the 19th at the closing bell
02/13/13 new stop loss @ 32.45
02/11/13 trade opened on gap higher at $33.71

chart:



BEARISH Play Updates

Caesars Entertainment - CZR - close: 10.74 change: -0.50

Stop Loss: 13.25
Target(s): 10.10
Current Gain/Loss: +14.3%

Entry on February 13 at $12.53
Listed on February 12, 2013
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings on Feb. 25th
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/16/13: There was no follow through on Thursday's intraday bounce off the 10-dma. Shares gapped open higher on Friday morning at $11.49 and quickly reversed to fall back to its simple 10-dma again. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stop loss or take profits early. I am not suggesting new bearish positions at this time.

current Position: short CZR stock @ $12.53

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Mar $10 PUT (CZR1316o10) entry $0.45

chart:



CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Sonic Corp. - SONC - close: 11.00 change: -0.30

Stop Loss: 11.15
Target(s): 12.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.0%

Entry on January 14 at $11.15
Listed on January 12, 2013
Time Frame: 8 to 9 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 658 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/16/13: SONC underperformed the market on Friday with a -2.6% decline and a plunge to round-number support at $11.00. Our stop loss was hit at $11.15.

closed Position: Long SONC stock @ $11.15 exit $11.15 (+00.0%)

02/15/13 stopped out
02/13/13 new stop loss @ 11.15
02/09/13 new stop loss @ 10.95
01/26/13 new stop loss @ $10.80

chart:



Synaptics - SYNA - close: 33.84 change: -0.99

Stop Loss: 33.95
Target(s): 39.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 4.2%

Entry on February 08 at $35.43
Listed on February 7, 2013
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 895 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/16/13: There was no follow through Thursday's bounce in SYNA. Quite the opposite occurred. Shares reversed sharply lower with a -2.8% decline and a breakdown below the $34.00 level. Our stop loss was hit at $33.95.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk. More conservative traders may want to use a trigger at $36.05 instead as their entry point.

*Small Positions*

closed Position: long SYNA stock @ $35.43 exit $33.95 (-4.2%)

02/15/13 stopped out at $33.95

chart: