Editor's Note:
One day does not make a trend but we saw a lot of ugly charts today. Plenty of stocks appear to be reversing as traders rush to lock in gains.

We closed our SNPS trade today. PAL was stopped out. DFT was triggered.


Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Conns Inc. - CONN - close: 31.02 change: -0.79

Stop Loss: 29.45
Target(s): 33.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 5.0%

Entry on February 05 at $29.55
Listed on February 4, 2013
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 416 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/20/13: CONN completely erased yesterday's gains with a -79 cent pullback. The stock did find support at the 10-dma. Yet if the market decline continues I would expect CONN to test the $30.00 level as support soon. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our target is $33.50. More aggressive traders could aim higher. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CONN is bullish with a long-term $48.00 target.

current Position: Long CONN stock @ $29.55

02/19/13 new stop loss @ 29.45
02/12/13 new stop loss @ 28.85
02/09/13 new stop loss @ 28.45



Deckers Outdoor Corp. - DECK - close: 42.99 change: -1.73

Stop Loss: 41.85
Target(s): 49.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.2%

Entry on February 12 at $44.41
Listed on February 11, 2013
Time Frame: exit PRIOR to earnings on Feb. 28th
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/20/13: Shares of DECK were downgraded this morning, which helped produce the spike down at the open. DECK did try and find support near its 200-dma, 10-dma and the $43.00 level but it still closed with a -3.8% decline. I am raising our stop loss to $41.85. I am not suggesting new positions.

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this an aggressive, higher-risk trade. DECK can be a volatile stock. Thus we want to keep our position size small. It is worth noting that if this strength continues DECK could see a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at almost 44% of the small 30.9 million share float. More aggressive traders may want to buy the call options.

*Small Positions*

current Position: Long DECK stock @ $44.41

02/20/13 new stop loss @ 41.85



Gilead Sciences - GILD - close: 41.88 change: -0.40

Stop Loss: 39.85
Target(s): 44.85
Current Gain/Loss: +1.7%

Entry on February 14 at $41.18
Listed on February 13, 2013
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 8.0 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/20/13: GILD ticked lower with a -0.9% pullback. The stock has almost filled the gap from yesterday morning. Do not be surprised to see GILD dip back toward its 10-dma or 20-dma.

Earlier Comments:
We do want to keep our position size small. Biotech stocks can be volatile.
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for GILD is bullish with a $47.50 target.

*Small Positions*

current Position: Long GILD stock @ $41.18



Morgan Stanley - MS - close: 23.42 change: -0.90

Stop Loss: 22.85
Target(s): 26.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.2%

Entry on February 01 at $23.15
Listed on January 30, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 27 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/20/13: Ouch! MS really underperformed both the financial sector and the major market indices today with a -3.7% decline. I couldn't find any specific news to account for the relative weakness. After several weeks of gains it's probably just traders rushing to lock in profits. Unfortunately today's decline has created a bearish engulfing candlestick reversal pattern but it needs to see confirmation. I am raising our stop loss up to $22.85. I am not suggesting new positions.

Small Positions*

current Position: Long MS stock @ $23.15

02/20/13 new stop loss @ 22.85
02/16/13 new stop loss @ 22.45



Progressive Corp. - PGR - close: 24.30 change: -0.19

Stop Loss: 23.40
Target(s): 26.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.3%

Entry on February 11 at $23.52
Listed on February 9, 2013
Time Frame: 9 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/20/13: PGR tagged a new relative high this morning but succumbing to the market's widespread declines. Look for a likely dip toward its rising 10-dma. I am raising our stop loss to $23.40. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: Long PGR stock @ $23.52

02/20/13 new stop loss @ 23.40
02/13/13 new stop loss @ 22.95



National Instruments - NATI - close: 29.66 change: -0.46

Stop Loss: 29.60
Target(s): 32.75
Current Gain/Loss: unopened

Entry on February -- at $--.--
Listed on February 16, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 340 thousand
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
02/20/13: NATI might be reversing. Today saw shares give back -1.5% and breakdown below its 10-dma and below its short-term, bullish trend of higher lows. If the weakness continues tomorrow we will likely drop NATI as a candidate.

Currently, I am suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $30.35. That would be a new 52-week high. If triggered our multi-week target is $32.75.
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for NATI is bullish with a $40.00 target.

Trigger @ 30.35

Suggested Position: buy NATI stock @ (trigger)



Splunk, Inc. - SPLK - close: 34.11 change: -0.57

Stop Loss: 33.75
Target(s): 39.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.8%

Entry on February 15 at $35.44
Listed on February 14, 2013
Time Frame: exit PRIOR to earnings on Feb. 28th
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/20/13: The pullback in SPLK continues. The stock is now down three days in a row. Shares are about to hit what should be short-term support at the $34.00 level. If the $34 level breaks it's not very far to hit our stop loss at $33.75.

Earlier Comments:
A breakout here could spark a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest a 16% of the 55.6 million share float.

current Position: Long SPLK stock @ $35.44

02/15/13 trade opened on gap higher at $35.44, trigger was $35.30



Symantec Corp - SYMC - close: 22.56 change: -0.05

Stop Loss: 21.95
Target(s): 24.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.1%

Entry on February 06 at $22.30
Listed on February 5, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 10 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/20/13: SYMC tried to rally this morning but the bulls couldn't get past recent resistance near the $22.90 area. Shares retreated this afternoon with the market accelerating lower. Odds are good we'll see SYMC test support at the bottom of its current trading range near $22.40 soon. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

*Small positions*

current Position: long SYMC stock @ $22.30

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Mar $23 call (SYMC1316c23) entry $0.38

02/16/13 new stop loss @ 21.95



BEARISH Play Updates

Caesars Entertainment - CZR - close: 10.84 change: -0.38

Stop Loss: 13.25
Target(s): 10.10
Current Gain/Loss: +13.5%

Entry on February 13 at $12.53
Listed on February 12, 2013
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings on Feb. 25th
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/20/13: There was no follow through on yesterday's oversold bounce. CZR reversed with a -3.3% decline today. Readers may want to tighten their stop loss. I am not suggesting new positions.

current Position: short CZR stock @ $12.53

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Mar $10 PUT (CZR1316o10) entry $0.45



DuPont Fabros Tech. - DFT - close: 22.83 change: -0.23

Stop Loss: 24.05
Target(s): 20.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.1%

Entry on February 20 at $22.85
Listed on February 16, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.25 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/20/13: Our new trade on DFT is open. Shares broke down to a new relative low and hit our trigger to launch positions at $22.85.

Earlier Comments:
Please note that we do want to keep our position size small. That's because there is already a lot of short interest. The most recent data listed short interest at 22% of the 62.2 million share float. That raises the risk of a short squeeze. Readers may want to buy the put options to limit their risk to their size of their position.
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for DFT is bearish with a $10.00 target.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short DFT stock @ $22.85

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Mar $25 PUT (DFT1316o25) entry $2.35



CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

North American Palladium - PAL - close: 1.49 change: -0.17

Stop Loss: 1.55
Target(s): 2.45
Current Gain/Loss: - 6.1%

Entry on January 14 at $ 1.65
Listed on January 12, 2013
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings on Feb. 21
Average Daily Volume = 2.8 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/20/13: The reversal lower in PAL has been dramatic with the stock down five days in a row. The sell-off has been picking up speed the last couple of sessions. PAL hit our stop loss at $1.55 today.

closed Position: long PAL stock @ $1.65 exit $1.55 (-6.1%)

02/20/13 stopped out at $1.55
02/16/13 prepare to exit on Feb. 20th ahead of the earnings report
02/06/13 adjusted time frame for earnings on Feb. 21st
01/30/13 new stop loss @ 1.55

chart:



Synopsys Inc. - SNPS - close: 34.79 change: +0.17

Stop Loss: 33.85
Target(s): 37.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.6%

Entry on February 06 at $34.25
Listed on February 2, 2013
Time Frame: exit prior to the February 20th earnings
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/20/13: SNPS shrugged off the market's decline and continued to rally. The stock hit new highs today with a +0.49% gain. Our plan was to exit positions at the closing bell to avoid holding over earnings.

closed Position: Long SNPS stock @ $34.25 exit $34.79 (+1.6%)

02/19/13 ready to exit tomorrow at the close
02/16/13 new stop loss at $33.85, prepare to exit on Feb. 20th at the close

chart: