Editor's Note:
The profit taking continued for a second day with the U.S. market in another widespread decline.

DECK and MS were stopped out.


Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Conns Inc. - CONN - close: 30.46 change: -0.56

Stop Loss: 29.45
Target(s): 33.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.1%

Entry on February 05 at $29.55
Listed on February 4, 2013
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 416 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/21/13: No surprises here. I cautioned readers that CONN would likely dip toward what should be round-number support at $30.00. Nimble traders could use a bounce off the $30.00 mark as a new bullish entry point.

Our target is $33.50. More aggressive traders could aim higher. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CONN is bullish with a long-term $48.00 target.

current Position: Long CONN stock @ $29.55

02/19/13 new stop loss @ 29.45
02/12/13 new stop loss @ 28.85
02/09/13 new stop loss @ 28.45



Gilead Sciences - GILD - close: 41.54 change: -0.34

Stop Loss: 39.85
Target(s): 44.85
Current Gain/Loss: +0.9%

Entry on February 14 at $41.18
Listed on February 13, 2013
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 8.0 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/21/13: As expected shares of GILD continued to pull back and now the stock is testing short-term technical support at the simple 10-dma. If this level fails we could see GILD decline toward round-number, psychological support at the $40.00 mark. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
We do want to keep our position size small. Biotech stocks can be volatile.
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for GILD is bullish with a $47.50 target.

*Small Positions*

current Position: Long GILD stock @ $41.18



Progressive Corp. - PGR - close: 24.48 change: +0.18

Stop Loss: 23.40
Target(s): 26.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.1%

Entry on February 11 at $23.52
Listed on February 9, 2013
Time Frame: 9 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/21/13: PGR displayed some relative strength with a +0.7% gain. Shares even managed a new intraday high. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: Long PGR stock @ $23.52

02/20/13 new stop loss @ 23.40
02/13/13 new stop loss @ 22.95



National Instruments - NATI - close: 29.41 change: -0.25

Stop Loss: 29.60
Target(s): 32.75
Current Gain/Loss: unopened

Entry on February -- at $--.--
Listed on February 16, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 340 thousand
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
02/21/13: I was prepared to drop NATI as a bullish candidate given today's decline. Yet traders did buy the dip twice intraday. We'll keep the stock on the newsletter another day and see how shares perform tomorrow. Right now our plan is unchanged. I am suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $30.35. That would be a new 52-week high. If triggered our multi-week target is $32.75.
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for NATI is bullish with a $40.00 target.

Trigger @ 30.35

Suggested Position: buy NATI stock @ (trigger)



Splunk, Inc. - SPLK - close: 34.04 change: -0.07

Stop Loss: 33.75
Target(s): 39.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 4.0%

Entry on February 15 at $35.44
Listed on February 14, 2013
Time Frame: exit PRIOR to earnings on Feb. 28th
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/21/13: SPLK flirted with a breakdown under short-term support at $34.00. The stock almost hit our stop loss at $33.75. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
A breakout here could spark a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest a 16% of the 55.6 million share float.

current Position: Long SPLK stock @ $35.44

02/15/13 trade opened on gap higher at $35.44, trigger was $35.30



Symantec Corp - SYMC - close: 22.31 change: -0.25

Stop Loss: 21.95
Target(s): 24.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.0%

Entry on February 06 at $22.30
Listed on February 5, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 10 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/21/13: Today's action doesn't bode well for SYMC. The stock has broken down from its $22.40-22.90 trading range. Shares have also broken down below their 10-dma. If this trend continues we'll see SYMC testing the $22.00 level soon and we have a stop loss at $21.95. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

*Small positions*

current Position: long SYMC stock @ $22.30

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Mar $23 call (SYMC1316c23) entry $0.38

02/16/13 new stop loss @ 21.95



BEARISH Play Updates

Caesars Entertainment - CZR - close: 11.18 change: +0.34

Stop Loss: 13.25
Target(s): 10.10
Current Gain/Loss: +10.8%

Entry on February 13 at $12.53
Listed on February 12, 2013
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings on Feb. 25th
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/21/13: Shares of CZR were actually trending lower today. Then around 2:37 p.m. the stock just exploded higher with a move from the low of the day to over $12.00 in just a few minutes. I couldn't find any news or catalyst at 2:37 p.m. that might account for the sudden rise. However, it is possible the stock was moving on news out of Nevada. Just before 2:00 p.m. ET the Las Vegas Sun published an article that said the Nevada Legislature had "fast tracked an online gaming bill" and after unanimously passing it they immediately delivered it to Governor Brian Sandoval who signed it later that afternoon. Nevada wants to be first to approve online gambling before other states do. Several states are considering approving online gambling and New Jersey is close to getting it passed. Nevada wants the first mover advantage.

CZR did pare its gains today. I am not suggesting new positions.

current Position: short CZR stock @ $12.53

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Mar $10 PUT (CZR1316o10) entry $0.45



DuPont Fabros Tech. - DFT - close: 22.62 change: -0.21

Stop Loss: 24.05
Target(s): 20.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.0%

Entry on February 20 at $22.85
Listed on February 16, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.25 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/21/13: DFT continues to sink. The stock is now down eight days in a row and has clearly broken support near $23.00.

Earlier Comments:
Please note that we do want to keep our position size small. That's because there is already a lot of short interest. The most recent data listed short interest at 22% of the 62.2 million share float. That raises the risk of a short squeeze. Readers may want to buy the put options to limit their risk to their size of their position.
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for DFT is bearish with a $10.00 target.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short DFT stock @ $22.85

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Mar $25 PUT (DFT1316o25) entry $2.35



Ford Motor Co. - F - close: 12.39 change: -0.21

Stop Loss: 13.05
Target(s): 11.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.0%

Entry on February 21 at $12.51
Listed on February 20, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 43.7 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/21/13: The sell-off in shares of Ford continued today. The stock gapped open lower at $12.51. I don't see any changes from my prior comments. We do want to keep our position size small. Our initial target is $11.50 but we'll make adjustments along the way.

current Position: short F stock @ $12.51



CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Deckers Outdoor Corp. - DECK - close: 40.84 change: -2.15

Stop Loss: 41.85
Target(s): 49.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 5.8%

Entry on February 12 at $44.41
Listed on February 11, 2013
Time Frame: exit PRIOR to earnings on Feb. 28th
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/21/13: Another down day for the U.S. stock market sparked a sharp sell-off in shares of DECK. The stock broke down under short-term support near $42.50 and the 200-dma. Shares hit our stop loss at $41.85.

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this an aggressive, higher-risk trade. DECK can be a volatile stock. Thus we want to keep our position size small.

*Small Positions*

closed Position: Long DECK stock @ $44.41 exit $41.85 (-5.8%)

02/21/13 stopped out
02/20/13 new stop loss @ 41.85

chart:



Morgan Stanley - MS - close: 22.83 change: -0.59

Stop Loss: 22.85
Target(s): 26.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.3%

Entry on February 01 at $23.15
Listed on January 30, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 27 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/21/13: Yesterday's profit taking in MS wiped out several days of gains. Today's profit taking (-2.5%) wiped out even more days of gains. The stock actually gapped open lower at $23.22 and then fell toward $22.50 before paring its losses. Our stop was hit at $22.85.

Small Positions*

closed Position: Long MS stock @ $23.15 exit $22.85 (-1.3%)

02/21/13 stopped out
02/20/13 new stop loss @ 22.85
02/16/13 new stop loss @ 22.45

chart: