Editor's Note:
Thursday's session saw the small caps leading the market higher. Yet overall it was a relatively quiet session for stocks.


Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Cray Inc. - CRAY - close: 20.05 change: -0.34

Stop Loss: 18.95
Target(s): 22.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.5%

Entry on March 04 at $20.15
Listed on March 02, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 419 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/07/13: CRAY is still slowly slipping lower. The stock is down three days in a row and now it's testing the $20.00 mark. A breakdown here could lead to a dip toward the rising 20 or 30-dma.

The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

*Small Positions*

Current Position: long CRAY stock @ $20.15

03/04/13 triggered @ $20.15



Genworth Financial - GNW - close: 9.65 change: +0.04

Stop Loss: 8.49
Target(s): 11.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.1%

Entry on March 05 at $ 9.36
Listed on March 04, 2013
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 8.6 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/07/13: GNW has managed to keep this week's rally alive with a +0.4% gain. The stock spent most of the day inside a 20-cent range. I would not be surprised to see a pullback toward the $9.25 area. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: Long GNW stock @ $9.36

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Apr $10 call (GNW1320d10) entry $0.48

03/05/13 triggered on gap higher at $9.36



Mattel, Inc. - MAT - close: 41.26 change: +0.32

Stop Loss: 40.40
Target(s): 44.85
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.2%

Entry on March 06 at $41.35
Listed on March 02, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 2.7 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/07/13: Bullish analyst comments helped give MAT a +0.78% gain today. The stock managed to hit a new multi-year high intraday before paring its gains.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is $44.85. We may have to exercise some patience on this trade. It could take a while to get to the $45.00 level since MAT doesn't move very fast but the long-term trend is definitely higher.

current Position: Long MAT stock @ $41.35



NASDAQ OMX Group - NDAQ - close: 32.00 change: -0.23

Stop Loss: 30.75
Target(s): 34.85
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.4%

Entry on February 25 at $31.55
Listed on February 23, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/07/13: NDAQ has pulled back two days in a row. Shares are resting on prior resistance and what could be new short-term support at the $32.00 level. More conservative traders may want to start raising their stop loss.

*Small Positions*

current Position: long NDAQ stock @ $31.55

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Apr $33 call (NDAQ1320d33) entry $0.95



Progressive Corp. - PGR - close: 24.80 change: +0.06

Stop Loss: 23.90
Target(s): 26.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 5.4%

Entry on February 11 at $23.52
Listed on February 9, 2013
Time Frame: 9 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/07/13: PGR is still drifting higher and managed a +0.24% gain today. I am a little bit concerned that the $25.00 mark could prove to be round-number, psychological resistance. I recently suggested that readers may want to consider taking profits early in the $24.80-25.00 zone.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: Long PGR stock @ $23.52

03/02/13 new stop loss @ 23.90
02/23/13 new stop loss @ 23.75
02/20/13 new stop loss @ 23.40
02/13/13 new stop loss @ 22.95



Shutterfly, Inc. - SFLY - close: 45.07 change: -0.02

Stop Loss: 41.85
Target(s): 48.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.23%

Entry on February 28 at $43.25
Listed on February 27, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/07/13: Thursday was a quiet session for SFLY with the stock trading in a narrow range. Shares closed almost unchanged on the day.

Earlier Comments:
SFLY could see another short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at nearly 40% of the small 28.6 million share float. I would keep our position size small as SFLY can be a volatile stock.

*Small Positions*

current Position: long SFLY stock @ $43.25

03/05/13 new stop loss @ 41.85



BEARISH Play Updates

Apollo Group Inc. - APOL - close: 16.86 change: +0.25

Stop Loss: 18.15
Target(s): 15.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 7.6%

Entry on February 25 at $18.25
Listed on February 21, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 3.1 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/07/13: Believe it or not but the recent action in shares of APOL is starting to look like a potential bottom. It may only be a short-term bottom but the stock looks like it wants to rebound. Shares added +1.5% today to outperform the broader market. Readers may want to exit early now to lock in gains. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: short APOL stock @ $18.25

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Mar $18 PUT (APOL1316o18) entry $0.60

03/04/13 the put option has tripled in value. Readers may want to take profits now.
03/02/13 new stop loss @ 18.15
02/28/13 new stop loss @ 18.60



AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. - AU - close: 24.15 change: -0.28

Stop Loss: 25.55
Target(s): 20.25
Current Gain/Loss: -0.6%

Entry on March 01 at $24.01
Listed on February 28, 2013
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/07/13: The oversold bounce in AU quickly ran out of steam. Yesterday many of the gold mining stocks suddenly surged higher. Yet there was almost no follow through higher today. That's good news for the bears but I am not suggesting new positions.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small because AU is arguably already short-term oversold. Of course it can grow a lot more oversold. Our target is $20.25. Readers may want to buy the put options, which can allow you to limit your risk to the cost of the option.
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for AU is bearish with a $13.00 target.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short AU stock @ $24.01

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Apr $24 PUT (AU1320p24) entry $1.10

03/06/13 warning! Today's session looks like a potential bullish reversal pattern for the gold miners, including AU.



BJ's Restaurants - BJRI - close: 30.16 change: +0.76

Stop Loss: 30.35
Target(s): 25.25
Current Gain/Loss: unopened

Entry on March -- at $--.--
Listed on March 06, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 483 thousand
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
03/07/13: We were lucky with our BJRI trade today. Shares dipped to $28.94 and then almost immediately reversed higher. The rebound produced a +2.5% gain and a close above round-number resistance at $30.00. I could not find any news to explain the show of relative strength today. We were lucky that BJRI did not hit our trigger to open bearish positions at $28.85 first before bouncing. If this rally continues tomorrow we will likely drop BJRI as a bearish candidate. For now, the plan remains unchanged.

I am suggesting a trigger to open bearish positions at $28.85. If triggered our target is $25.25. The most recent data listed short interest at about 12.5% of the small 24.6 million share float. Readers may want to consider buying the put options instead of shorting the stock as a way to limit your risk to your initial investment.

Trigger @ 28.85

Suggested Position: short BJRI stock @ (trigger)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

buy the Apr $30 PUT (BJRI1320p30)