Editor's Note:
The S&P 500 index and the small cap Russell 2000 index were up every day this past week. The rally continues but equities are starting to look overbought again.

We have removed BJRI. The trade did not open.
HRS was triggered.


Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Cray Inc. - CRAY - close: 20.17 change: +0.12

Stop Loss: 18.95
Target(s): 22.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.1%

Entry on March 04 at $20.15
Listed on March 02, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 419 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/09/13: CRAY managed to snap a three-day losing streak. Shares held round-number support at the $20.00 level. I would be tempted to buy the dip here or you could wait for a rally past $20.30 as an alternative entry point.

The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

*Small Positions*

Current Position: long CRAY stock @ $20.15

03/04/13 triggered @ $20.15

chart:



Genworth Financial - GNW - close: 9.84 change: +0.19

Stop Loss: 8.85
Target(s): 11.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 5.1%

Entry on March 05 at $ 9.36
Listed on March 04, 2013
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 8.6 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/09/13: GNW continues to rally with a +1.9% gain on Friday. The stock is up five days in a row and trading at a 52-week high. On Friday Barron's came out with a bullish article on the stock suggesting GNW remains very cheap. One analyst has an $18 price target for GNW.

On a short-term basis the $10.00 level could be round-number, psychological resistance. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. We will raise the stop loss to $8.85.

current Position: Long GNW stock @ $9.36

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Apr $10 call (GNW1320d10) entry $0.48

03/09/13 new stop loss @ 8.85
03/05/13 triggered on gap higher at $9.36

chart:



Mattel, Inc. - MAT - close: 41.43 change: +0.17

Stop Loss: 40.40
Target(s): 44.85
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.2%

Entry on March 06 at $41.35
Listed on March 02, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 2.7 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/09/13: Traders bought the dip in MAT near the $41.00 level again and shares rallied to a new high on Friday. I would consider new positions at current levels.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is $44.85. We may have to exercise some patience on this trade. It could take a while to get to the $45.00 level since MAT doesn't move very fast but the long-term trend is definitely higher.

current Position: Long MAT stock @ $41.35

chart:



NASDAQ OMX Group - NDAQ - close: 32.03 change: +0.03

Stop Loss: 30.75
Target(s): 34.85
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.5%

Entry on February 25 at $31.55
Listed on February 23, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/09/13: Hmm... the last couple of days in NDAQ look almost identical. Shares popped higher at the open but failed under the $32.40 level and then spent the rest of the session fading back toward $32.00 by the close. I am expecting the simple 10-dma, now at 31.80, to offer some short-term support. Readers could use a dip near the 10-dma or a rally past $32.40 as alternative entry points.

*Small Positions*

current Position: long NDAQ stock @ $31.55

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Apr $33 call (NDAQ1320d33) entry $0.95

chart:



Progressive Corp. - PGR - close: 24.84 change: +0.04

Stop Loss: 23.90
Target(s): 26.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 5.6%

Entry on February 11 at $23.52
Listed on February 9, 2013
Time Frame: 9 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/09/13: Many of the insurance stocks have been showing relative strength but PGR seems stuck. The stock is at multi-year highs but the last three session have essentially been a churn inside the $24.65-24.90 zone. It's possible that the $25.00 level will be round-number, psychological resistance. Thus more conservative traders may want to lock in profits now. A breakout past $25.00 could ignite the next leg higher. We're currently aiming for $26.00 but more aggressive traders could aim higher.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: Long PGR stock @ $23.52

03/02/13 new stop loss @ 23.90
02/23/13 new stop loss @ 23.75
02/20/13 new stop loss @ 23.40
02/13/13 new stop loss @ 22.95

chart:



Shutterfly, Inc. - SFLY - close: 44.38 change: -0.69

Stop Loss: 41.85
Target(s): 48.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.6%

Entry on February 28 at $43.25
Listed on February 27, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/09/13: Hmm... I am urging caution on SFLY. Friday's session saw the stock give back -1.5%. Friday also created a bearish engulfing candlestick reversal pattern but these signals usually need to see confirmation. I couldn't find any specific news to account for the relative weakness on Friday. It might just be normal profit taking after a multi-day advance.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
SFLY could see another short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at nearly 40% of the small 28.6 million share float. I would keep our position size small as SFLY can be a volatile stock.

*Small Positions*

current Position: long SFLY stock @ $43.25

03/05/13 new stop loss @ 41.85

chart:



BEARISH Play Updates

Apollo Group Inc. - APOL - close: 16.97 change: +0.11

Stop Loss: 18.15
Target(s): 15.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 7.0%

Entry on February 25 at $18.25
Listed on February 21, 2013
Time Frame: EXIT prior to earnings on Mar. 25th
Average Daily Volume = 3.1 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/09/13: APOL is still trying to bounce and shares added +0.6% on Friday. The stock remains near what appears to be new short-term resistance at the $17.00 level and now its simple 10-dma. I don't see any changes from my prior comments. Readers may want to exit early now to lock in gains. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

NOTE: We do not want to hold over the March 25th earnings report.

Keep in mind that our March $18 put will expire in five trading days so we'll need to plan an exit there soon.

current Position: short APOL stock @ $18.25

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Mar $18 PUT (APOL1316o18) entry $0.60

03/04/13 the put option has tripled in value. Readers may want to take profits now.
03/02/13 new stop loss @ 18.15
02/28/13 new stop loss @ 18.60

chart:



AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. - AU - close: 24.60 change: +0.45

Stop Loss: 25.55
Target(s): 20.25
Current Gain/Loss: -2.5%

Entry on March 01 at $24.01
Listed on February 28, 2013
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/09/13: Trading in AU was interesting on Friday morning. The GLD gold ETF and the GDX gold miner ETF both gapped open lower on Friday morning and then bounced. Shares of AU did not gap down at the open but instead immediately spiked higher. The rally stumbled near round-number resistance at the $25.00 level. AU still managed a +1.8% gain.

The high on Friday was $25.15. Our stop loss is at $25.55. You may want to make adjustments.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small because AU is arguably already short-term oversold. Of course it can grow a lot more oversold. Our target is $20.25. Readers may want to buy the put options, which can allow you to limit your risk to the cost of the option.
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for AU is bearish with a $13.00 target.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short AU stock @ $24.01

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Apr $24 PUT (AU1320p24) entry $1.10

03/06/13 warning! Today's session looks like a potential bullish reversal pattern for the gold miners, including AU.

chart:



Harris Corp. - HRS - close: 45.42 change: -0.32

Stop Loss: 46.65
Target(s): 40.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.3%

Entry on March 08 at $45.30
Listed on March 07, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 855 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/09/13: HRS tried to rally on Friday morning but immediately failed at the $46.00 level. Shares underperformed the market with a -0.69% decline. The stock also hit our suggested trigger to launch small bearish positions at $45.30. I would still consider new bearish positions at current levels.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short HRS stock @ $45.30

chart:



CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

BJ's Restaurants - BJRI - close: 31.09 change: +0.93

Stop Loss: 30.35
Target(s): 25.25
Current Gain/Loss: unopened

Entry on March -- at $--.--
Listed on March 06, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 483 thousand
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
03/09/13: BJRI continued to bounce on Friday and shares added +3.0%. That's two bid days in a row. The stock is moving away from our suggested entry point at $28.85. I am removing BJRI from the newsletter.

Trade did not open.

03/09/13 removed from the newsletter. trade did not open.

chart: