Editor's Note:
The stock market's rally paused to catch its breath on Friday.

We have removed ATVI. SFLY was closed.


Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Cray Inc. - CRAY - close: 20.78 change: -0.28

Stop Loss: 19.80
Target(s): 22.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.1%

Entry on March 04 at $20.15
Listed on March 02, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 419 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/16/13: CRAY gave back most of Thursday's gains with a -1.3% decline on Friday. It is worth noting that traders did buy the spike down on Friday morning near $20.55. We are adjusting our stop loss up to $19.80.

The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

*Small Positions*

Current Position: long CRAY stock @ $20.15

03/16/13 new stop loss @ 19.80
03/13/13 new stop loss @ 19.65
03/04/13 triggered @ $20.15

chart:



iShares Japan Index - EWJ - close: 10.64 change: +0.10

Stop Loss: 9.90
Target(s): 11.40
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.9%

Entry on March 12 at $10.44
Listed on March 11, 2013
Time Frame: 9 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 30 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/16/13: The Japanese NIKKEI index displayed strength on Friday with a +1.5% gain. The EWJ did not quite keep pace and only added a +0.9% gain. This is another new 52-week high for the Japan ETF. More conservative traders might want to adjust their stop loss closer to the $10.20 level.

Earlier Comments:
We have a longer-term time frame for this trade to work. If you're going to play it, be patient.

Current Position: Long the EWJ @ $10.44

chart:



Genworth Financial - GNW - close: 10.49 change: -0.01

Stop Loss: 10.25
Target(s): 11.00
Current Gain/Loss: +12.1%

Entry on March 05 at $ 9.36
Listed on March 04, 2013
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 8.6 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/16/13: Shares of GNW seem to be stuck in suspended animation. The stock has been drifting sideways in a narrow range for four and a half days. I am not suggesting new positions. Readers may want to exit now to lock in gains. We adjusted our plan to close our Aril $10 calls at the open on Friday morning. Unfortunately, the gap down in shares of GNW on Friday morning affected our exit on the calls.

current Position: Long GNW stock @ $9.36

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

(closed on Friday, March 15th at the open)
Apr $10 call (GNW1320d10) entry $0.48 exit $0.69 (+43.7%)

03/15/13 closed the April $10 calls at the open
03/14/13 new stop loss @ 10.33 and prepare to exit our April $10 call position at the open tomorrow
03/11/13 new stop loss @ 10.25
03/09/13 new stop loss @ 8.85
03/05/13 triggered on gap higher at $9.36

chart:



Hornbeck Offshore Services - HOS - close: 44.63 change: -0.30

Stop Loss: 43.40
Target(s): 49.50
Current Gain/Loss: unopened

Entry on March -- at $--.--
Listed on March 14, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 539 thousand
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
03/16/13: There was no follow through on HOS' rally from Thursday. Shares failed at $45.00 and produced a -0.6% pullback. Overall it's a pretty mild decline. We are waiting for a breakout higher.

I am suggesting a trigger to launch bullish positions at $45.25. If triggered our target is $49.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for HOS is bullish with a long-term $71.00 target.

Trigger @ 45.25

Suggested Position: buy HOS stock @ (trigger)

chart:



Mattel, Inc. - MAT - close: 42.14 change: -0.16

Stop Loss: 40.40
Target(s): 44.85
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.9%

Entry on March 06 at $41.35
Listed on March 02, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 2.7 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/16/13: MAT's rally stalled on Friday with a minor dip. Do not be surprised if we see MAT retrace back down to its 10 or 20-dma. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is $44.85. We may have to exercise some patience on this trade. It could take a while to get to the $45.00 level since MAT doesn't move very fast but the long-term trend is definitely higher.

current Position: Long MAT stock @ $41.35

chart:



MeadWestvaco Corp. - MWV - close: 37.70 change: +0.07

Stop Loss: 35.95
Target(s): 39.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.9%

Entry on March 11 at $36.65
Listed on March 09, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/16/13: MWV kept the rally alive with another gain on Friday. I am concerned that shares might be growing overbought here but that doesn't mean the rally is over. It's probably time for a little pullback. We are adjusting our exit target down to $39.25.
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for MWV is bullish with a $42 target.

current Position: long MWV stock @ $36.65

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Apr $35 call (MWV1320D35) entry $2.20

03/16/13 adjust exit target to $39.25.
03/14/13 new stop loss @ 35.95 and adjust exit target to $39.50

chart:



NASDAQ OMX Group - NDAQ - close: 32.57 change: -0.03

Stop Loss: 31.45
Target(s): 34.85
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.2%

Entry on February 25 at $31.55
Listed on February 23, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/16/13: Shares of NDAQ were upgraded to an outperform on Friday morning. Bloomberg ran an article regarding an overhaul of energy derivatives trading in Europe that could drive more traffic to exchanges like NASDAQ. Neither news story really seemed to help shares of NDAQ on Friday. The trend is up but traders sold the Friday morning pop.

*Small Positions*

current Position: long NDAQ stock @ $31.55

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Apr $33 call (NDAQ1320d33) entry $0.95

03/13/13 new stop loss @ 31.45

chart:



Progressive Corp. - PGR - close: 25.13 change: -0.25

Stop Loss: 24.45
Target(s): 26.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 6.8%

Entry on February 11 at $23.52
Listed on February 9, 2013
Time Frame: 9 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/16/13: PGR ran into a little profit taking on Friday thanks to an analyst downgrade to an underperform. Shares did find support near their rising 10-dma. The bounce back to close above $25.00 is bullish. More conservative investors might want to take profits now to lock in gains.

current Position: Long PGR stock @ $23.52

03/13/13 new stop loss @ 24.45
03/02/13 new stop loss @ 23.90
02/23/13 new stop loss @ 23.75
02/20/13 new stop loss @ 23.40
02/13/13 new stop loss @ 22.95

chart:



BEARISH Play Updates

Apollo Group Inc. - APOL - close: 16.94 change: +0.19

Stop Loss: 17.35
Target(s): 15.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 7.2%

Entry on February 25 at $18.25
Listed on February 21, 2013
Time Frame: EXIT prior to earnings on Mar. 25th
Average Daily Volume = 3.1 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/16/13: Hmmm... traders bought the dip in APOL on Friday morning. Shares managed to outperform the market with a +1.1% gain. We remain cautious here. Readers might want to exit early. I am not suggesting new positions.

NOTE: Our plan was to exit our March $18 calls at the open on Friday morning. APOL gapped open lower at $16.70, which was good for our put's exit price.

NOTE: We do not want to hold over the March 25th earnings report.

current Position: short APOL stock @ $18.25

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

(closed option position on Fri. March 15th)
Mar $18 PUT (APOL1316o18) entry $0.60 exit $1.22 (+103.3%)

03/15/13 closed the March $18 puts at the open
03/14/13 prepare to exit our March $18 puts at the open tomorrow morning
03/11/13 new stop loss @ 17.35
03/04/13 the put option has tripled in value. Readers may want to take profits now.
03/02/13 new stop loss @ 18.15
02/28/13 new stop loss @ 18.60

chart:



Brunswick Corp - BC - close: 34.35 change: -0.47

Stop Loss: 35.30
Target(s): 30.30
Current Gain/Loss: unopened

Entry on March -- at $--.--
Listed on March 12, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 786 thousand
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
03/16/13: BC tried to bounce but the rebound failed at technical resistance at its simple 10-dma. BC underperformed the market with a -1.3% decline on Friday. Aggressive traders could launch positions now. We are suggesting a trigger to launch bearish positions at $33.90. If triggered our target is $30.30.

Trigger @ 33.90

Suggested Position: short BC stock @ (trigger)

chart:



Harris Corp. - HRS - close: 44.36 change: -0.53

Stop Loss: 46.05
Target(s): 40.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.1%

Entry on March 08 at $45.30
Listed on March 07, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 855 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/16/13: HRs continues to show relative weakness with a -1.1% decline on Friday. The stock has broken down to new multi-month lows. I am lowering our stop loss to $46.05.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short HRS stock @ $45.30

03/16/13 new stop loss @ 46.05

chart:



CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Activision/Blizzard Inc. - ATVI - close: 14.65 change: -0.38

Stop Loss: 14.49
Target(s): 16.75
Current Gain/Loss: unopened

Entry on March -- at $--.--
Listed on March 13, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 10.3 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/16/13: ATVI underperformed the market on Friday with a -2.5% decline. This is probably a reaction to the news regarding a -25% drop in video game sales in February. Our trade has not opened yet so we're dropping ATVI as an active candidate.

Trade did not open.

03/16/13 removed from the newsletter

chart:



Shutterfly, Inc. - SFLY - close: 44.00 change: +0.18

Stop Loss: 42.75
Target(s): 48.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.5%

Entry on February 28 at $43.25
Listed on February 27, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/16/13: SFLY has not been participating in the market's recent strength. We decided to close positions at the open on Friday morning. The stock opened at $43.91. Shares saw a dip to their 20-dma and then rebounded.

*Small Positions*

closed Position: long SFLY stock @ $43.25 exit $43.91 (+1.5%)

03/15/13 planned exit
03/14/13 prepare to exit at the open tomorrow
03/11/13 new stop loss @ 42.75
03/05/13 new stop loss @ 41.85

chart: