Editor's Note:
The stock market's major indices managed a bounce. Is it a pause on the way down? This could be just a short-term oversold bounce.

We did see AMSG and MAT hit our stops before reversing higher today.


Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

iShares Japan Index - EWJ - close: 10.90 change: +0.43

Stop Loss: 10.35
Target(s): 11.40
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.4%

Entry on March 12 at $10.44
Listed on March 11, 2013
Time Frame: 9 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 30 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/04/13: It has been a volatile week for shares of the EWJ. Today the stock gapped open higher and closed with a +4.1% gain (and at new 52-week highs). The rally today was fueled by news that the Bank of Japan announced a record-setting $1.4 trillion stimulus package to shake the country out of a 20-year slump.

The market has been expecting new monetary easing plans but the size of the plan today was a shock. The question now is whether or not Japan's new QE news is priced into the market or not. More conservative traders may want to take profits now. We are going to keep the play active. Our target remains $11.40.

Note, the low on Monday was $10.37 so we're raising our stop loss to $10.35.

Earlier Comments:
We have a longer-term time frame for this trade to work. If you're going to play it, be patient.

Current Position: Long the EWJ @ $10.44

04/04/13 new stop loss @ 10.35
03/30/13 new stop loss @ 10.28
03/20/13 new stop loss @ 10.18



Plum Creek Timber Co. - PCL - close: 51.60 change: +0.55

Stop Loss: 49.90
Target(s): 54.50
Current Gain/Loss: +2.1%

Entry on March 25 at $50.56
Listed on March 23, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 732 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/04/13: PCL recouped a good chunk of yesterday's pullback with a +1.0% bounce today. The trend is still up but I am not suggesting new positions.

*Small Positions*

Current Position: Long PCL stock @ $50.56

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long May $50 call (PCL1318E50) entry $1.40*

03/30/13 new stop loss @ 49.90
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.



BEARISH Play Updates

Brunswick Corp - BC - close: 32.15 change: +0.63

Stop Loss: 34.25
Target(s): 30.30
Current Gain/Loss: + 5.2%

Entry on March 18 at $33.78
Listed on March 12, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 786 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/04/13: BC produced an oversold bounce off its 100-dma and came close to erasing yesterday's losses. If this bounce continues we can look for resistance near $33.50.

Suggested Position: short BC stock @ $33.78

04/03/13 new stop loss @ 34.25
04/01/13 new stop loss @ 34.75
03/18/13 triggered on gap down at $33.78. Trigger was $33.90



Cabot Microelectronics - CCMP - close: 33.16 change: +0.31

Stop Loss: 34.05
Target(s): 30.25
Current Gain/Loss: -1.4%

Entry on April 03 at $32.69
Listed on April 02, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 104 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/04/13: CCMP is not cooperating yet. Today's close back above $33.00 and above its simple 200-dma is short-term bullish for the stock. More conservative traders may want to lower their stop loss. I am not suggesting new positions at current levels.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small. We want to limit our risk because CCMP is arguably already short-term oversold. Of course it can get a lot more oversold. We are using somewhat of a wide stop loss at $34.05. Our target is $30.25.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short CCMP stock @ $32.69



JAKKS Pacific - JAKK - close: 10.31 change: +0.00

Stop Loss: 10.51
Target(s): 8.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened

Entry on April -- at $--.--
Listed on April 03, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 162 thousand
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
04/04/13: JAKK closed unchanged on Thursday's session, which at this point is a small victory for the bears. There is no change from my prior comments.

Earlier Comments:
The stock has been underperforming the market most of the year. The recent oversold bounce from major support at the $10.00 mark has already reversed. Once again JAKK is facing a potential breakdown below $10.

I am suggesting a trigger to launch bearish positions at $9.90. If triggered our target is $8.00. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for JAKK is bearish with a $6.50 target.

Trigger @ 9.90

Suggested Position: short JAKK stock @ (trigger)



Teck Resources - TCK - close: 26.85 change: +0.30

Stop Loss: 28.25
Target(s): 26.25
Current Gain/Loss: +7.4%

Entry on March 19 at $29.00
Listed on March 18, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/04/13: After a five-day decline TCK managed a minor oversold bounce with a +1.1% gain. Look for resistance in the $27.50-28.00 zone. I am not suggesting new positions at current levels.

current Position: short TCK stock @ $29.00

04/03/13 new stop loss @ 28.25
03/19/13 new stop loss @ 29.25



W&T Offshore Inc. - WTI - close: 12.90 change: -0.12

Stop Loss: 14.25
Target(s): 12.15
Current Gain/Loss: + 6.9%

Entry on April 01 at $13.85
Listed on March 30, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 696 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/04/13: WTI continues to underperform and posted a -0.9% decline on Thursday. Shares are short-term oversold here and due for a bounce. I am not suggesting new positions.

Earlier Comments:
Our initial target is $12.15. More aggressive traders could aim lower. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for WTI is bearish with a $9.50 target.

current Position: short WTI stock @ $13.85

04/03/13 new stop loss @ 14.25



CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

AmSurg Corp. - AMSG - close: 32.90 change: +0.24

Stop Loss: 32.25
Target(s): 36.75
Current Gain/Loss: -2.9%

Entry on March 26 at $33.23
Listed on March 25, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 218 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/04/13: AMSG managed to outperform the market with a +0.7% gain on Thursday. Unfortunately that was after shares fell to a new two-week low and hit our stop loss at $32.25 first.

closed Position: Long AMSG stock @ $33.23 exit $32.25 (-2.9%)

04/04/13 stopped out
03/30/13 new stop loss @ 32.25

chart:



Mattel, Inc. - MAT - close: 43.28 change: +0.29

Stop Loss: 42.85
Target(s): 44.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.6%

Entry on March 06 at $41.35
Listed on March 02, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 2.7 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/04/13: MAT also managed to outperform the stock market's major indices with a +0.6% gain. Yet shares tagged new two-week lows first and MAT hit our stop loss at $42.85 this morning.

closed Position: Long MAT stock @ $41.35 exit $42.85 (+3.6%)

04/02/13 new stop loss at $42.85
03/30/13 new stop loss at $42.40
03/25/13 new stop loss at $41.80
03/23/13 new stop loss at $41.40, adjust exit target to $44.50
03/21/13 new stop loss at $40.95
03/20/13 new stop loss at $40.75

chart: