Editor's Note:
Shares of Teck Resources (TCK) hit our bearish target on Friday. Meanwhile we are removing JAKK as a candidate.


Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

iShares Japan Index - EWJ - close: 10.96 change: +0.06

Stop Loss: 10.35
Target(s): 11.40
Current Gain/Loss: + 5.0%

Entry on March 12 at $10.44
Listed on March 11, 2013
Time Frame: 9 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 30 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/05/13: The Japanese ETF rally continues. As you know the new Bank of Japan governor Mr. Abe has announced a record breaking amount of new monetary stimulus in an effort to shock the country out of 20 years of deflation. New monetary easing was expected but the size of the program was a surprise. The EWJ surged on Thursday to new 52-week highs.

Now bears could argue that the good news is already priced in. That's possible. However, the BoJ's new QE program is not limited to Japanese bonds. They will also be buying ETFs and REITs. Thus the EWJ might be able to keep this rally going with a little help from the country's central bank.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Readers may want to consider raising their stop loss. Our target remains $11.40.

Earlier Comments:
We have a longer-term time frame for this trade to work. If you're going to play it, be patient.

Current Position: Long the EWJ @ $10.44

04/04/13 new stop loss @ 10.35
03/30/13 new stop loss @ 10.28
03/20/13 new stop loss @ 10.18

chart:



Plum Creek Timber Co. - PCL - close: 51.23 change: -0.37

Stop Loss: 49.90
Target(s): 54.50
Current Gain/Loss: +1.3%

Entry on March 25 at $50.56
Listed on March 23, 2013
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings on April 29th
Average Daily Volume = 732 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/05/13: Traders bought the dip in PCL on Friday morning but shares still closed with a -0.7% decline. More conservative traders might want to consider raising their stop loss toward the 20-dma (near 50.55) or near Friday's low (50.72). I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

*Small Positions*

Current Position: Long PCL stock @ $50.56

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long May $50 call (PCL1318E50) entry $1.40*

03/30/13 new stop loss @ 49.90
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.

chart:



BEARISH Play Updates

Akamai Technologies - AKAM - close: 34.18 change: +0.12

Stop Loss: 35.05
Target(s): 30.15
Current Gain/Loss: unopened

Entry on April -- at $--.--
Listed on April 04, 2013
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings on April 24th
Average Daily Volume = 3.9 million
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
04/05/13: AKAM displayed some volatility on Friday. Our trade almost opened. The stock market's widespread Friday morning weakness pushed AKAM to gap open lower at $33.65 and dip to $33.46 before bouncing sharply higher. Our trade is not open yet since our trigger to open bearish positions is at $33.45.

I am leaving our entry point unchanged at $33.45 but more aggressive traders might want to consider launching bearish positions on a new drop below $33.90 instead.

Earlier Comments:
If triggered our target is $30.15. More aggressive traders could aim lower. The Point & Figure chart for AKAM is bearish with a $25.00 target.

Note: because of AKAM's high short interest you might want to trade the put option instead where you can limit your risk to the initial cost of the option.

Trigger @ 33.45

Suggested Position: short AKAM stock @ (trigger)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

buy the May $30 PUT (AKAM1318Q30)

chart:



Brunswick Corp - BC - close: 32.12 change: -0.03

Stop Loss: 34.25
Target(s): 30.30
Current Gain/Loss: + 5.3%

Entry on March 18 at $33.78
Listed on March 12, 2013
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings on April 25th
Average Daily Volume = 786 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/05/13: The sell-off this past week pulled BC to technical support at its 100-dma. The last couple of days have seen BC try and bounce off this level but it's not getting very far. The stock looks short-term oversold and could see a bounce back toward its 10-dma or the $33.50 area. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Suggested Position: short BC stock @ $33.78

04/03/13 new stop loss @ 34.25
04/01/13 new stop loss @ 34.75
03/18/13 triggered on gap down at $33.78. Trigger was $33.90

chart:



Cabot Microelectronics - CCMP - close: 32.98 change: -0.18

Stop Loss: 34.05
Target(s): 30.25
Current Gain/Loss: -0.9%

Entry on April 03 at $32.69
Listed on April 02, 2013
Time Frame: exit PRIOR to earnings on April 25th
Average Daily Volume = 104 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/05/13: The semiconductor sector has been trying to bounce the last couple of days. We are seeing similar attempts in shares of CCMP. The stock seems to be struggling with the $33 level and its 200-dma. Friday's low was $32.44. If you're looking for a new entry point I would wait for either a new failed rally at the 10-dma (near 33.70) or a new drop below $32.40.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small. We want to limit our risk because CCMP is arguably already short-term oversold. Of course it can get a lot more oversold. We are using somewhat of a wide stop loss at $34.05. Our target is $30.25.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short CCMP stock @ $32.69

chart:



W&T Offshore Inc. - WTI - close: 12.98 change: +0.08

Stop Loss: 14.25
Target(s): 12.15
Current Gain/Loss: + 6.3%

Entry on April 01 at $13.85
Listed on March 30, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 696 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/05/13: Hmm... traders have a decision to make. You might want to lock in profits right here. WTI is short-term oversold. The stock market's sharp decline on Friday morning failed to have much influence on WTI. The stock barely peaked below Thursday's low and bounced. Technically Friday's rebound almost looks like a bullish engulfing candlestick reversal pattern.

You may want to close positions now to lock in gains and avoid any bounce. I am expecting a rebound back towards the $13.50-14.00 zone.

Earlier Comments:
Our initial target is $12.15. More aggressive traders could aim lower. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for WTI is bearish with a $9.50 target.

current Position: short WTI stock @ $13.85

04/06/13 readers may want to exit now to lock in gains. WTI looks poised for an oversold bounce
04/03/13 new stop loss @ 14.25

chart:



CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

JAKKS Pacific - JAKK - close: 10.48 change: +0.17

Stop Loss: 10.51
Target(s): 8.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened

Entry on April -- at $--.--
Listed on April 03, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 162 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/05/13: We are removing JAKK as a candidate. The stock is not cooperating and displayed relative strength on Friday with a +1.6% gain. The plan was to open bearish positions on a breakdown with a trigger at $9.90. JAKK has not hit our trigger yet.

Trade did not open.

04/06/13 removed from the newsletter

chart:



Teck Resources - TCK - close: 27.19 change: +0.34

Stop Loss: 28.25
Target(s): 26.25
Current Gain/Loss: +9.5%

Entry on March 19 at $29.00
Listed on March 18, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/05/13: Target achieved.

The stock market's widespread weakness on Friday morning pushed TCK to gap open lower at $26.30. The stock hit an intraday low of $26.04. Our bearish exit target was hit at $26.25. If you have not exited yet I am urging caution. Friday's bounce off its lows has created a bullish engulfing candlestick reversal pattern.

closed Position: short TCK stock @ $29.00 exit $26.25 (+9.5%)

04/05/13 target hit
04/03/13 new stop loss @ 28.25
03/19/13 new stop loss @ 29.25

chart: