Editor's Note:
The homebuilder stocks bucked the market's down trend as the group rallied on a strong homebuilder confidence survey.

LOW, USTR, MDC, and MHO were stopped out.
We want to exit our FB trade tomorrow morning.


Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

FLIR Systems - FLIR - close: 32.19 change: -0.63

Stop Loss: 31.95
Target(s): 36.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.6%

Entry on August 02 at $33.05
Listed on August 01, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
08/15/13: FLIR has broken down from its recent sideways consolidation with today's -1.9% decline. The next level of support should be the $32 level but more conservative traders might want to just exit now.

current Position: Long FLIR stock @ $33.05



Luminex Corp. - LMNX - close: 20.67 change: -0.52

Stop Loss: 20.40
Target(s): 23.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.3%

Entry on August 07 at $20.60
Listed on August 06, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 167 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
08/15/13: LMNX underperformed the broader market with a -2.4% decline. The close under $21.00 is short-term bearish. Today's intraday low was $20.52. If there is any follow through lower tomorrow we could see LMNX hit our stop at $20.40. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

*small positions*

current Position: Long LMNX stock @ $20.60

08/12/13 new stop loss @ 20.40



The Mosaic Co. - MOS - close: 44.23 change: +0.48

Stop Loss: 43.70
Target(s): 49.50
Current Gain/Loss: unopened

Entry on August -- at $--.--
Listed on August 13, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 584 thousand
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
08/15/13: It was a volatile day for shares of MOS. The stock spiked down to tag its 10-dma near $42.60 and then MOS bounced back into positive territory and outperform the market with a +1.0% gain. There is no change from my prior comments.

I do consider this an aggressive, higher-risk trade. Therefore I'm suggesting small bullish positions. Launch trades if MOS can trade at $45.10. If triggered our target is $49.50.

Trigger @ 45.10 *small positions*

Suggested Position: buy MOS stock @ (trigger)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

buy the Sep $47.50 call (MOS1321i47.5)



Ocwen Financial Corp - OCN - close: 50.23 change: -0.71

Stop Loss: 49.25
Target(s): 55.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.0%

Entry on August 08 at $50.76
Listed on August 07, 2013
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
08/15/13: We've been expecting OCN to dip toward $50.00. Today's pullback to the $50 level could be used as a new bullish entry point. However, more conservative investors might want to adjust their stop loss closer to today's low (49.88).

Earlier Comments:
If triggered our multi-week target is $55.00. More aggressive traders could aim higher. The Point & Figure chart for OCN is bullish with a $63 target.

current Position: Long OCN stock @ $50.76

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Sep $50 call (OCN1321i50) entry $2.70

08/08/13 traded on gap higher at $50.76. Trigger was $50.70



BEARISH Play Updates

Facebook, Inc. - FB - close: 36.56 change: -0.09

Stop Loss: 38.55
Target(s): 33.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.7%

Entry on August 14 at $36.83
Listed on August 13, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 86.2 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
08/15/13: Warning! FB lost less than 10 cents today. Considering the market's widespread declines and breakdown below short-term support we would have expected FB to show more weakness. If FB isn't going to move on a day like today then when is it going to move.

The overall pattern still looks bearish. More aggressive traders may want to keep the trade alive. We are suggesting an early exit at the opening bell tomorrow morning.

Earlier Comments:
The stock can be volatile so I would consider this an aggressive, higher-risk trade. Our target is $33.50.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short FB stock @ $36.83

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Sep $35 PUT (FB1321u35) entry $0.79

08/15/13 prepare to exit at the open tomorrow morning.



Linn Energy - LINE - close: 24.52 change: +0.84

Stop Loss: 25.05
Target(s): 20.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.7%

Entry on August 13 at $23.65
Listed on August 12, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
08/15/13: Shares of LINE have shown relative strength two days in a row. Today was especially impressive with a +3.5% gain. We are expecting resistance at $25.00 but traders may want to abandon ship immediately. I am not suggesting new positions.

current Position: short LINE stock @ $23.65

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Sep $22 PUT (LINE1321u22) entry $1.10

08/15/13 LINE is not cooperating. Readers may want to exit early now.



Saia, Inc. - SAIA - close: 28.31 change: -0.24

Stop Loss: 30.25
Target(s): 25.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.2%

Entry on August 14 at $28.25
Listed on August 10, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 192 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
08/15/13: SAIA continues to sink but shares failed to keep pace with the market's sell-off. SAIA lost -0.8% but the NASDAQ slipped -1.7%. Traders bought the dip near $28.00 this morning.

current Position: short SAIA stock @ $28.25



CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Lowe's Companies - LOW - close: 43.85 change: -1.15

Stop Loss: 44.40
Target(s): 49.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.6%

Entry on August 08 at $45.60
Listed on August 05, 2013
Time Frame: exit PRIOR to earnings on Aug. 21st
Average Daily Volume = 5.9 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
08/15/13: Ouch! The two-day decline in LOW has been painful. Yesterday shares gave up -2.4%. Today saw another -2.5%. The market's plunge at the open had LOW gapping lower at $44.46. Our stop loss was quickly hit at $44.40.

closed Position: Long LOW stock @ $45.60 exit $44.40 (-2.6%)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Sep $45 call (LOW1321i45) entry $1.90 exit $1.22 (-35.7%)

08/15/13 stopped out

chart:



United Stationers - USTR - close: 42.09 change: -1.42

Stop Loss: 41.95
Target(s): 48.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.7%

Entry on August 12 at $43.55
Listed on August 10, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 275 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
08/15/13: It was a rough day for USTR. Shares were very volatile this morning and USTR hit our stop loss at $41.95. USTR did pare its losses to -3.2% by the close. Today's move looks like a breakdown of its up trend. I would not be surprised to see a correction toward $40.

closed Position: long USTR stock @ $43.55 exit $41.95 (-3.7%)

08/15/13 stopped out
08/12/13 triggered @ 43.55

chart:



CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

MDC holdings - MDC - close: 30.27 change: +1.26

Stop Loss: 30.35
Target(s): 25.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 4.4%

Entry on August 09 at $29.08
Listed on August 08, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 943 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
08/15/13: Homebuilders bucked the trend today. News of a strong homebuilder confidence survey either sparked some short covering or inspire some bargain hunters to buy this beaten down industry.

The NAHB housing market index of builder confidence hit an 8-year high with a reading of 59. Readings above 50 are considered positive.

Shares of MDC spiked down to a new low this morning as the market sank. Then the stock rebounded higher to a +4.3% gain. Our stop was hit at $30.35.

Earlier Comments:
Keep in mind that the homebuilders have been volatile. I am suggesting small positions. You may want to consider just buying puts since your risk is limited to the cost of the put option.

*Small Positions*

closed Position: short MDC stock @ $29.08 exit $30.35 (-4.4%)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Sep $30 PUT (MDC1321u30) entry $2.10 exit $1.25 (-40.4%)

08/15/13 stopped out
08/09/13 trade opened with MDC opening at $29.08

chart:



M/I Homes, Inc. - MHO - close: 20.10 change: +0.80

Stop Loss: 20.11
Target(s): 16.15
Current Gain/Loss: -6.1%

Entry on August 15 at $18.95
Listed on August 14, 2013
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 388 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
08/15/13: We had a little bit of a worst case scenario here with MHO. Shares gapped down at $19.00, plunged to $18.34, and then exploded higher as the homebuilders rallied. My comments on MDC about the homebuilder confidence survey apply to MHO as well. The market's early morning weakness pushed this group lower but then they reversed sharply higher. Our entry trigger to open bearish positions was hit at $18.95. Our stop loss was hit at $20.11.

closed Position: short MHO stock @ $18.95 exit $20.11 (-6.1%)

08/15/13 stopped out at $20.11
08/15/13 triggered at $18.95

chart: