Editor's Note:
Stocks appear to be starting 2014 off on the wrong foot as markets post two days of losses. Fortunately losses on Friday were pretty mild.

HCI and VNET hit our stop loss. We want to exit our DWA trade on Monday morning.


Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. - AMTD - close: 30.71 change: +0.28

Stop Loss: 29.90
Target(s): 33.85
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.2%

Entry on December 31 at $30.65
Listed on December 21, 2013
Time Frame: exit PRIOR to earnings on January 21st
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
01/04/14: AMTD was showing relative strength again after traders bought the dip near its 10-dma for the third time in a week. Friday saw shares add +0.9% and close at a new multi-year high. Tonight we're raising the stop loss to $29.90.

current Position: long AMTD stock @ $30.65

01/04/14 new stop loss @ 29.90
12/31/13 triggered at $30.65

chart:



DreamWorks Animation - DWA - close: 35.19 change: +0.04

Stop Loss: 34.45
Target(s): 39.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.5%

Entry on December 20 at $35.35
Listed on December 19, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 702 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/04/14: We are growing concerned that the up trend in DWA is beginning to fade. As a precaution we're suggesting an immediate exit on Monday morning.

current Position: long DWA stock @ $35.35

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Mar $35 call (DWA1422c35) entry $2.65*

01/04/14 prepare to exit on Monday morning, January 6th
12/28/13 new stop loss @ 34.45
12/20/13 triggered @ 35.35
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.

chart:



General Electric - GE - close: 27.48 change: -0.02

Stop Loss: 26.95
Target(s): 29.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.0%

Entry on December 26 at $27.75
Listed on December 24, 2013
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings on January 17th
Average Daily Volume = 37 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/04/14: Shares of GE were downgraded on Friday morning but the news really didn't have much effect. GE spent the day drifting sideways inside the $27.40-27.60 zone. Investors may want to consider a rally past $27.60 as a new entry point. Just keep in mind our plan to exit prior to earnings on January 17th. I am adjusting our target down to $29.50. I am also adjusting our stop loss to $27.20.

current Position: long GE stock @ $27.75

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Feb $28 call (GE1422B28) entry $0.58

01/04/14 new stop loss @ 27.20
01/04/14 adjust target down to $29.50
12/26/13 triggered @ 27.75

chart:



Hyatt Hotels Corp. - H - close: 49.80 change: -0.08

Stop Loss: 48.95
Target(s): 54.75
Current Gain/Loss: unopened

Entry on January -- at $--.--
Listed on January 02, 2014
Time Frame: exit PRIOR to earnings in mid February
Average Daily Volume = 264 thousand
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
01/04/14: Friday turned out to be a relatively quiet session for H. I don't see any changes from my Thursday night new play description.

Earlier Comments:
H is in the services sector. The company owns and manages hundreds of properties in almost 50 countries. The stock hit new all-time highs several days ago. Since then H has been slowly consolidating lower. Thursday saw a display of relative strength (+0.8%). More importantly Thursday's move created a bullish engulfing candlestick reversal pattern.

I am suggesting small bullish positions if H can trade at $50.25. More conservative investors may want to wait for a new all-time high above $50.50 before initiating positions. H's intraday high was $50.43 on December 23rd.

If triggered at $50.25 our target is $54.75. However, we will plan to exit prior to earnings in mid February. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for H is bullish with a $66.00 target.

Trigger @ 50.25 *small positions*

Suggested Position: buy H stock @ (trigger)

chart:




Spirit Aero Systems - SPR - close: 34.00 change: +0.29

Stop Loss: 32.95
Target(s): 38.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.1%

Entry on December 24 at $34.05
Listed on December 21, 2013
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings in February.
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/04/14: SPR displayed a little relative strength on Friday with a +0.8% gain. I would be tempted to launch new bullish positions on a move above $34.30 or you could wait for a rally past its December high near $34.50 instead.

Earlier Comments:
Our multi-week target is $38.50 but we will plan on exiting positions prior to SPR's earnings report in February.

current Position: long SPR stock @ $34.05

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Apr $35 call (SPR1419D35) entry $2.50*

12/30/13 new stop loss @ 32.95
12/24/13 triggered @ 34.05
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.

chart:



Tempur Sealy Intl. - TPX - close: 54.38 change: -0.01

Stop Loss: 51.75
Target(s): 57.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.8%

Entry on December 24 at $52.91
Listed on December 23, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 757 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/04/14: TPX saw a small spike higher on Friday morning likely due to some bullish analyst comments. Gains faded by the close and TPX settled virtually unchanged on the session. Currently our stop loss is at $51.75 since the nearest support level is $52.00 but more conservative traders may want to raise their stop. I am not suggesting new positions at current levels.

Earlier Comments:
If this rally continues the stock could see some short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at 17% of the 50 million share float. Our multi-week target is $57.50. More aggressive traders, with enough patience, may want to aim higher since the Point & Figure chart for TPX is bullish with a long-term $66.00 target.

current Position: long TPX stock @ $52.91

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Mar $55 call (TPX1422c55) entry $3.50*

12/30/13 new stop loss @ 51.75
12/26/13 new stop loss @ 50.95
12/24/13 trade opens at $52.91
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.

chart:



Walter Energy, Inc. - WLT - close: 15.98 change: -0.45

Stop Loss: 15.45
Target(s): 19.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 5.6%

Entry on December 30 at $16.93
Listed on December 28, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 6.0 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/04/14: This is it! I have cautioned readers that WLT looked like it was headed for the $16.00 level, an area that should be support, bolstered by the 50-dma and 200-dma. WLT underperformed the market with a -2.7% decline on Friday and closed at the $16.00 level. Traders can use to buy the dip now or wait for a bounce back above $16.20 as their entry point. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop.

Earlier Comments:
WLT could see a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 37% of the 62.2 million share float. I am labeling this trade as an aggressive, higher-risk trade because WLT can be so volatile. We're suggesting small positions to limit our risk. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for WLT is bullish with a $21.00 target.

* small positions *

current Position: Long WLT stock @ $16.93

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Feb $17 call (WLT1422B17) entry $1.70

12/30/13 trade opens at $16.93

chart:



Western Refining, Inc. - WNR - close: 42.42 change: +0.00

Stop Loss: 39.75
Target(s): 46.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.6%

Entry on December 24 at $41.35
Listed on December 23, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/04/14: The last couple of days have seen the U.S. markets struggle and stumble into 2014. Shares of WNR have managed to avoid the weakness and just hover near $42.40. I don't see any changes from my prior comments. More conservative traders may want to consider raising their stop loss.

Earlier Comments:
I would keep in mind that there is a lot of short interest. The most recent data listed short interest at about 28% of the 50.6 million share float. That could fuel a short squeeze in WNR. I am suggesting small positions to limit our risk just in case there is a worker strike at the NTI plant and retail gas stations. Our short-term target is $46.00. More aggressive traders could aim higher since the Point & Figure chart for WNR is bullish with a $50.00 target.

*Small positions *

current Position: Long WNR stock @ $41.35

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Mar $42 call (WNR1422c42) entry $2.70*

12/31/13 new stop loss @ 39.75
12/24/13 trade opened this morning at $41.35
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.

chart:



Yandex N.V. - YNDX - close: 42.90 chnage: +0.27

Stop Loss: 40.95
Target(s): 48.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.9%

Entry on January 02 at $43.31
Listed on December 31, 2013
Time Frame: exit PRIOR to earnings in mid February
Average Daily Volume = 2.7 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/04/14: YNDX has spent the last few days consolidating sideways. The larger trend is still bullish but traders may want to wait for a rally above $43.50 or the December intraday high at $43.65 before initiating new positions.

Earlier Comments:
Our multi-week target is $48.50. We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for YNDX is bullish with a $48.00 target.

*Small positions*

current Position: long YNDX stock @ $43.31

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Feb $45 call (YNDX1422B45) entry $2.00*

01/02/14 trade opened on gap higher at $43.31.
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.

chart:



BEARISH Play Updates

Ecopetrol SA - EC - close: 37.68 change: -0.29

Stop Loss: 39.05
Target(s): 31.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened

Entry on December -- at $--.--
Listed on December 30, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 716 thousand
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
01/04/14: EC continues to sink and underperformed the market with a -0.76% decline on Friday. Yet we are still waiting for a new relative low. There is no change from my earlier comments.

Earlier Comments:
EC is a Columbian oil and gas company. The stock has been struggling most of the year. Shares just recently broke down below support at $40.00 on big volume. There has been very little oversold bounce. Now the stock looks poised to break down below the next level of key support near $37.50.

I am suggesting a trigger to launch bearish positions at $37.35. If triggered our target is $31.00. Once it's below $37.50 the next level of support appears to be the $30.00 level.

Trigger @ 37.35

Suggested Position: short EC stock @ (trigger)

chart:



Nationstar Mortgage Holdings - NSM - close: 36.06 change: -0.37

Stop Loss: 37.75
Target(s): 31.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened

Entry on December -- at $--.--
Listed on December 30, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
01/04/14: NSM also underperformed the market on Friday. We are still waiting for a breakdown below support. There are no changes from my earlier comments.

Earlier Comments:
NSM is in the financial sector. The company is a mortgage loan servicer. Back in November the company missed earnings estimates by a wide margin and lowered its 2014 outlook. The oversold bounce failed at technical resistance. Now shares are poised to breakdown below support, which could spark the next leg lower.

I am labeling this an aggressive, higher-risk trade. There is already a lot of bears in this trade. The most recent data listed short interest at 39% of the very small 20.4 million share float. That is a risk of a short squeeze. Thus I am suggesting small positions. Traders may want to use put options to limit their risk.

I am suggesting a trigger to launch small bearish positions at $35.65. If triggered our target is $31.00.

Trigger @ 35.65 *small positions*

Suggested Position: short NSM stock @ (trigger)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Buy the Feb $35 PUT (NSM1422N35)

chart:



CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

HCI Group, Inc. - HCI - close: 51.22 change: -0.54

Stop Loss: 51.15
Target(s): 58.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.6%

Entry on December 31 at $53.05
Listed on December 28, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 205 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/04/14: HCI underperformed the market two days in a row. Friday saw shares breakdown below their 10-dma and what looked like short-term support near $51.20. Our stop was hit at $51.15.

closed Position: long HCI stock @ $53.05 exit $51.15 (-3.6%)

01/03/14 stopped out
12/31/13 triggered @ 53.05

chart:



21Vianet Group, Inc. - VNET - close: 21.83 change: -1.49

Stop Loss: 21.90
Target(s): 24.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.3%

Entry on December 18 at $21.20
Listed on December 17, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 614 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/04/14: Ouch! Friday was a rough day for VNET. Our trade went form +10% to +3.3% with Friday's sell off. I didn't see any company specific news behind Friday's relative weakness so it could have been a reaction to the Chinese market's decline on Friday. The stock hit our stop loss at $21.90.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small for a reason.

*small positions*

closed Position: Long VNET stock @ $21.20 exit $21.90 (+3.3%)

01/03/14 stopped out
01/02/14 new stop loss @ 21.90
12/31/13 new stop loss @ 21.40
12/24/13 new stop loss @ 20.75, adjust exit target to $24.75
12/21/13 new stop loss @ 19.90
12/18/13 triggered @ 21.20

chart: