Editor's Note:
The stock market's spike higher on Thursday morning looked like short covering. That is a bit surprising since tomorrow's jobs report number is likely to disappoint.

We closed our EC trade this morning. QIWI hit our stop loss.


Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Hewlett-Packard Co. - HPQ - close: 28.49 change: +0.48

Stop Loss: 27.80
Target(s): TBD
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.1%

Entry on January 27 at $28.53
Listed on January 18, 2014
Time Frame: exit PRIOR to earnings on Feb. 20th
Average Daily Volume = 13.2 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/06/14: HPQ is once again bouncing from support near $28 and its 50-dma. Shares displayed some relative strength with a +1.7% gain. Yet the rebound today did stall at its simple 10-dma so I wouldn't get too excited just yet.

current Position: long HPQ stock @ $28.53

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Mar $30 call (HPQ1422C30) entry $0.96

02/04/14 new stop loss @ 27.80
02/01/14 new stop loss @ 27.70
01/27/14 trade opens at $28.53
01/25/14 adjust entry strategy and open positions on Monday morning (Jan 27th)
01/25/14 new stop loss @ 26.95
01/23/14 new stop @ 28.95
Nimble traders may want to look for support near $28.70 as an alternative entry point.



JPMorgan Chase & Co - JPM - close: 56.48 change: +1.27

Stop Loss: 52.90
Target(s): 59.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.4%

Entry on January 30 at $56.25
Listed on January 25, 2014
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 18 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/06/14: The financial sector was showing relative strength with the XLF financial ETF up +1.5% versus a +1.2% gain in the S&P 500. Shares of JPM were leading the charge with a +2.3% gain that was just enough to leave shares above short-term resistance near $56.30. The next challenge for the bulls is potential technical resistance at JPM's 50-dma near $57.00.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: Long JPM stock @ $56.25

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long MAR $55 call (JPM1422C55) entry $2.53

02/03/14 adjust stop loss from $53.90 to $52.90
01/30/14 triggered @ 56.25. Use stop loss at $53.90
01/28/14 add a secondary entry trigger at $56.25
adjust the exit target to $59.75



Penn Virginia Corp. - PVA - close: 12.13 change: -0.00

Stop Loss: 11.45
Target(s): 17.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.3%

Entry on February 03 at $12.55
Listed on January 28, 2014
Time Frame: exit PRIOR to earnings on Feb.19th
Average Daily Volume = 3.2 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/06/14: Hmm... the action in shares of PVA could be a warning signal. The stock did not participate in the market's widespread rally and closed unchanged on the session. I am raising our stop loss to $11.45. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop closer to the simple 20-dma near $11.70 instead. I am not suggesting new positions.

Earlier Comments:
Our target is $17.00 but that is very, very optimistic goal. Odds are more likely we won't capture that big of a move because PVA is due to report earnings on February 19th and we do not want to hold over the announcement.

Investors may want to consider PVA as a longer-term trade. The Point & Figure chart for PVA is bullish with a long-term $25.00 target.

current Position: Long PVA stock @ $12.55

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Mar $12.50 call (PVA1422C12.5) entry $1.10

02/06/14 new stop loss @ 11.45
02/03/14 triggered at $12.55



BEARISH Play Updates

Best Buy Co. - BBY - close: 23.71 change: +0.59

Stop Loss: 24.55
Target(s): 20.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.4%

Entry on January 30 at $24.29
Listed on January 29, 2014
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings on Feb. 27th
Average Daily Volume = 17.6 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/06/14: BBY's +2.5% gain today outperformed the market and left shares up two days in a row. The rally stalled near its 10-dma and the $24.00 level. More conservative traders might want to adjust their stop loss closer to the $24.00 mark. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
The plan is to use small positions to limit our risk.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short BBY stock @ $24.29

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long MAR $20 PUT (BBY1422o20) entry $0.45

02/05/14 new stop loss @ 24.55
01/30/14 new stop loss @ 24.75
01/30/14 trade opens with BBY gapping open higher at $24.29



Lowe's Companies - LOW - close: 46.58 change: +1.05

Stop Loss: 46.85
Target(s): 40.15
Current Gain/Loss: -3.9%

Entry on February 05 at $44.82
Listed on February 04, 2014
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings on February 26th
Average Daily Volume = 6.9 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/06/14: Our bearish play on LOW is in trouble. We were triggered on yesterday morning's spike lower but LOW reversed by Wednesday's closing bell. That bounce continued today with widespread short covering this morning. LOW has rallied to short-term resistance at its 10-dma. The high today was $46.64. If there is any follow through higher tomorrow then we will likely see LOW hit our stop loss at $46.85. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Our target is $40.15 but we will plan to exit prior to their earnings report on February 26th.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for LOW is bearish with a $40.00 target.

current Position: short LOW stock @ $44.82

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long MAR $45 PUT (LOW1422o45) entry $1.80

02/05/14 trade opens at $44.82



The Fresh Market, Inc. - TFM - close: 34.20 change: +0.17

Stop Loss: 35.55
Target(s): 30.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.2%

Entry on February 03 at $34.60
Listed on February 01, 2014
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/06/14: TFM has spent the last couple of days consolidating sideways along the $34.00 level. I am adjusting our stop loss down to $35.55. More conservative traders may want to move their stop even lower. Investors may want to wait for a new relative low before considering new positions.

Earlier Comments:
I am listing this as a more aggressive, higher-risk trade due to the amount of short interest. The latest data listed short interest at about 25% of the 40 million share float. The bears have a pretty good story for the stock to trend lower but that much short interest does pose a danger of short-term spikes higher.

Our target is $30.25. More aggressive traders could aim lower since the Point & Figure chart for TFM is bullish with an $18 target.

current Position: short TFM stock @ $34.60

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long MAR $35 PUT (TFM1422o35) entry $2.90

02/06/14 new stop loss @ 35.55
02/03/14 triggered @ 34.60



GameStop Corp. - GME - close: 35.35 change: +0.59

Stop Loss: 36.60
Target(s): 31.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.7%

Entry on January 29 at $35.60
Listed on January 28, 2014
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/06/14: The market's rally this morning looked like short covering, which may help explain the sudden, late-morning rally in GME. Shares did outperform the major indices with a +1.6% gain but the rally stalled near its 10-dma. More conservative traders may want to lower their stop loss. I am not suggesting new positions.

Earlier Comments:
We should probably consider this a more aggressive, higher-risk trade because there is so much short interest. The most recent data listed short interest at 25% of the 113 million share float. That could make GME volatile and we run the risk of the stock seeing short-term spikes. However, long-term GME could be in trouble as the video industry moves more and more to an online, download purchase system instead of consumers going to their local game story to buy games.

More conservative traders may want to wait for a drop below $35.00 before initiating positions. Our target is $31.00. More aggressive traders could aim lower. The Point & Figure chart for GME is bearish with a $20.00 target.

current Position: short GME stock @ $35.60

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long MAR $35 PUT (GME1422o35) entry $1.65

02/03/14 new stop loss @ 36.60
02/01/14 new stop loss @ 37.10
01/29/14 trigger @ 35.60



Voxeljet AG - VJET - close: 31.35 change: -0.55

Stop Loss: 34.35
Target(s): 25.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.1%

Entry on February 06 at $31.00
Listed on February 05, 2014
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 805 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/06/14: VJET underperformed the market today with a -1.7% decline. Seeing weakness when most of the market was up today is a good sign for the bears. Our trade opened this morning at $31.00. I would still consider new positions at current levels.

Earlier Comments:
Investors should note that this is an aggressive, higher-risk trade. There are already a lot of bears in this stock. The most recent data listed short interest in VJET at 2.39 million shares of the very, very small 4.27 million float. That's more than 55% of the float. Any good news could spark a very sharp pop in VJET. Therefore investors will want to strongly consider limiting their risk by trading with put options.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for VJET is bearish with a $13.00 target.

*Small Positions to Limit Risk!*

current Position: short VJET stock @ $31.00

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long MAR $30 PUT (VJET1422o30) entry $3.45*

02/06/14 trade opened with gap down at $31.00
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.



Vitamin Shoppe, Inc. - VSI - close: 44.45 change: +1.48

Stop Loss: 46.55
Target(s): 41.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.1%

Entry on January 24 at $45.85
Listed on January 23, 2014
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 535 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/06/14: VSI was not immune to the market's widespread bounce on Thursday. The move in the market this morning felt like short covering and that is what VSI's spike higher looked like as well (short covering). The rally stalled at short-term technical resistance at the 10-dma. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this a slightly more aggressive trade. The most recent data listed short interest at almost 15% of the 27.5 million share float. Therefore I'm suggesting small positions to limit our risk.

*small positions*

current Position: short VSI stock @ $45.85

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Feb $45 PUT (VSI1422N45) entry $1.62

02/03/14 new stop loss @ 46.05
01/29/14 new stop loss @ 46.55
01/24/14 triggered @ $45.85



CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Ecopetrol SA - EC - close: 35.41 change: +0.61

Stop Loss: 35.25
Target(s): 31.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 6.1%

Entry on January 06 at $37.35
Listed on December 30, 2013
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 716 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/06/14: The bearish momentum in shares of EC seemed to be slowing so in last night's newsletter we suggested an immediate exit this morning. The stock gapped open higher at $35.06 and then rallied to a +1.75% gain.

closed Position: short EC stock @ $37.35 exit $35.06 (+6.1%)

02/06/14 planned exit this morning
02/05/14 prepare to exit immediately
01/29/14 new stop loss @ 35.25
01/28/14 investors may want to start taking some money off the table
01/27/14 new stop loss @ 35.65
01/14/14 new stop loss @ 36.25
01/08/14 new stop loss @ 38.25
01/06/14 triggered @ 37.35

chart:



Qiwi plc. - QIWI - close: 38.69 change: +2.96

Stop Loss: 36.55
Target(s): 30.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 5.0

Entry on February 04 at $34.80
Listed on February 03, 2014
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/06/14: Our aggressive trade on QIWI did not pan out. The market's Thursday morning rally looked like short covering. After Wednesday's bounce in QIWI and a positive tone before the market opened this morning, there was a rush to cover positions in QIWI. The stock gapped open higher at $36.47 and quickly hit our stop loss at $36.55. By the end of trading today QIWI was up +8.2%.

Earlier Comments:
I am suggesting small positions to limit our risk. QIWI could be volatile if there are any headlines suggesting this Russian bill could be postponed or altered in a way that would not negatively impact the company's business.

*small positions*

closed Position: short QIWI stock @ $34.80 exit $36.55 (-5.0%)

02/06/14 stopped out
02/04/14 trade opened on gap higher at $34.80

chart: