Editor's Note:
Caution! The market action today looks ominous. The S&P 500 index appears to be forming a bearish reversal at resistance near 1850. The Dow Industrials are reversing near the 50-dma and the 16,200 level. We could be witnessing a potential (short-term?) top in the market. Do not be surprised to see some profit taking tomorrow.

AA and DNKN hit our entry triggers. HPQ was closed.


Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Alcoa Inc. - AA - close: 11.76 change: +0.36

Stop Loss: 10.80
Target(s): 12.95
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.8%

Entry on February 19 at $11.55
Listed on February 11, 2014
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 39 million
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
02/19/14: Shares of AA surged higher this morning after news hit that General Motors (GM) is accelerating its plans to create an "aluminum intensive" truck. Ford has already introduced an F-150 pickup that's 95% aluminum that reduces its weight by 700 pounds. GM is looking into the same concept as they try to meet tougher U.S. gas mileage standards.

AA rallied to $12.00 before paring its gains and settling with a +3.1% advance. Our trigger to launch positions was hit at $11.55.

Earlier Comments:
Our multi-week target is $12.95. The Point & Figure chart for AA is very bullish with a $20.00 target.

current Position: Long AA stock @ $11.55

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long APR $12 call (AA1419D12) entry $0.47

02/19/14 triggered at $11.55



Agios Pharmaceuticals - AGIO - close: 32.25 change: -2.21

Stop Loss: 29.75
Target(s): 39.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.4%

Entry on February 11 at $31.48
Listed on February 10, 2014
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 380 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/19/14: AGIO remains volatile. The stock almost completely erased yesterday's big rally with a -6.4% plunge today. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop loss toward $31.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Further strength could spark more short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at 19% of the very small 11.0 million share float. Due to AGIO's volatility I am suggesting small positions to limit risk.

*Small positions to limit risk!*

current Position: long AGIO stock @ $31.48

02/13/14 new stop loss @ 29.75
02/11/14 trade opens at $31.48



Dunkin' Brands Group - DNKN - close: 50.17 change: -0.21

Stop Loss: 48.40
Target(s): 57.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.9%

Entry on February 19 at $50.65
Listed on February 18, 2014
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/19/14: It's not the most glorious start but our DNKN trade is open. The stock pushed higher this morning and hit our trigger at $50.65. The stock peaked at $50.80 and closed down -0.4% versus a -0.6% drop in the S&P 500 index.

At this point I would either wait for a new high above $50.80 or look for a potential dip near its rising 10-dma as alternative entry points.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for DNKN is bullish with a $60.00 target.

current Position: long DNKN stock @ $50.65

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long MAR $50 call (DNKN1422C50) entry $1.50*

02/19/14 triggered @ 50.65
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.



First Solar, Inc. - FSLR - close: 55.97 change: -0.89

Stop Loss: 52.45
Target(s): 59.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.1%

Entry on February 18 at $53.75
Listed on February 13, 2014
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings on Feb 25th
Average Daily Volume = 3.1 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/19/14: Shares of SCTY were downgraded this morning and the stock dropped -7.4%. The news really didn't have much effect on FSLR. Shares of FSLR actually rallied this morning and hit $57.95 before reversing and succumbing to the market's widespread declines. I would look for potential support near $54.00.

Yesterday we raised our stop loss to $52.45. More conservative traders may want to adjust their stop even higher. I am not suggesting new positions at current levels.

FYI: FSLR will report earnings on Feb. 25th.

Earlier Comments:
A breakout higher could spark some short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at 23% of the 72.5 million share float. Solar energy stocks like FSLR can be volatile so I am suggesting small positions to limit our risk. This could be a short-term trade. We plan to exit ahead of FSLR's earnings report. FSLR is starting to bounce from support on its Point & Figure chart. Currently the chart is still bearish but a move above $53.00 would produce a new buy signal (update: new buy signal suggest a $64 target).

*small positions*

current Position: long FSLR stock @ $53.75

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long MAR $55 call (FSLR1422C55) entry $4.30

02/18/14 new stop loss @ 52.45
02/18/14 triggered @ 53.75



Flotek Industries - FTK - close: 24.14 change: -0.56

Stop Loss: 23.95
Target(s): 29.75
Current Gain/Loss: unopened

Entry on February -- at $--.--
Listed on February 18, 2014
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 976 thousand
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
02/19/14: FTK did not see any follow through on yesterday's rally. The stock tried but it was rebuffed near the $24.90 level multiple times today. If we see FTK close below its simple 10-dma then we'll likely remove it as an active candidate.

Earlier Comments:
I am suggesting small bullish positions if FTK can trade at $25.15. If triggered our target is $29.75.
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for FTK is bullish with a $31.00 target.

Trigger @ 25.15 *small positions*

Suggested Position: buy FTK stock @ (trigger)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Buy the Mar $25 call (FTK1422C25)



JPMorgan Chase & Co - JPM - close: 57.26 change: -1.23

Stop Loss: 55.45
Target(s): 59.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.8%

Entry on January 30 at $56.25
Listed on January 25, 2014
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 18 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/19/14: I have been warning readers that JPM was due for a pullback. After a ten-day, non-stop rally shares finally saw some profit taking and almost erased three days worth of gains with a -2.1% decline. I am not suggesting new positions.

current Position: Long JPM stock @ $56.25

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long MAR $55 call (JPM1422C55) entry $2.53

02/13/14 new stop loss @ 55.45
02/11/14 new stop loss @ 54.90
02/08/14 new stop loss @ 53.90
02/03/14 adjust stop loss from $53.90 to $52.90
01/30/14 triggered @ 56.25. Use stop loss at $53.90
01/28/14 add a secondary entry trigger at $56.25
adjust the exit target to $59.75



Insulet Corp. - PODD - close: 44.67 change: +0.04

Stop Loss: 42.95
Target(s): 49.85
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.1%

Entry on February 13 at $45.15
Listed on February 12, 2014
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings on Feb. 27th
Average Daily Volume = 687 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/19/14: PODD weathered the market's pullback reasonably well today. I would still expect a dip toward the $44.00 level. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop loss.

Earlier Comments:
A move past $45 could spark more short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at 17% of the 51.3 million-share float. Our target is $49.85. We will plan to exit prior to earnings, which are expected in late February, possibly early March. There is no confirmed date yet.

*small positions*

current Position: long PODD stock @ $45.15

02/13/14 triggered $ 45.15



SolarWinds, Inc. - SWI - close: 44.45 change: -0.01

Stop Loss: 42.45
Target(s): 49.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.1%

Entry on February 18 at $44.50
Listed on February 15, 2014
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.27 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/19/14: SWI pared its intraday gains to close virtually unchanged on the session. If the market pullback continues we might see SWI dip into the $43.50-44.00 zone.

Earlier Comments:
Our target is $49.50. More aggressive traders or those with a longer time frame may want to aim higher since the Point & Figure chart for SWI is bullish with a $63.00 target.

current Position: long SWI stock @ $44.50

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long MAR $45 call (SWI1422C45) entry $1.45

02/18/14 entry trigger hit at $44.50



BEARISH Play Updates

Nuance Communications - NUAN - close: 15.03 change: -0.16

Stop Loss: 15.25
Target(s): 13.05
Current Gain/Loss: unopened

Entry on February -- at $--.--
Listed on February 15, 2014
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 5.7 million
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
02/19/14: NUAN did not see any follow through on yesterday's bounce. Currently we are still on the sidelines waiting for a new relative low.

Our suggested entry point is $14.45.

Earlier Comments:
Traders should note that activist investor Carl Icahn has a significant stake in NUAN. It was first disclosed back in April 2013 that he had a 9.3% stake in the company. By December 31st his stake had risen to 24%. Carl has a much longer time frame than we do but if more headlines surface about his involvement or him buying more shares it could spark another pop in NUAN's stock price. Therefore I am suggesting we use small positions to limit our risk.

Tonight we're suggesting a trigger to open bearish positions at $14.45, just below Thursday's low. If triggered our target is $13.05. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. The Point & Figure chart for NUAN is bearish with a $5.50 target.

Trigger @ 14.45

Suggested Position: short NUAN stock @ (trigger)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Buy the MAR $14 PUT (NUAN1422o14)





CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Hewlett-Packard Co. - HPQ - close: 29.45 change: -0.13

Stop Loss: 28.90
Target(s): TBD
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.2%

Entry on January 27 at $28.53
Listed on January 18, 2014
Time Frame: exit PRIOR to earnings on Feb. 20th
Average Daily Volume = 13.2 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/19/14: The market's widespread pullback today helped push HPQ to a -0.4% decline. Our plan was to exit positions at the closing bell to avoid holding over the company's earnings report tomorrow.

closed Position: long HPQ stock @ $28.53 exit $29.45 (+3.2%0

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Mar $30 call (HPQ1422C30) entry $0.96 exit $1.04 (+8.3%)

02/19/14 planned exit
02/18/14 prepare to exit tomorrow at the closing bell
02/15/14 new stop loss @ 28.90
02/13/14 new stop loss @ 28.55
02/12/14 new stop loss @ 28.45
02/04/14 new stop loss @ 27.80
02/01/14 new stop loss @ 27.70
01/27/14 trade opens at $28.53
01/25/14 adjust entry strategy and open positions on Monday morning (Jan 27th)
01/25/14 new stop loss @ 26.95
01/23/14 new stop @ 28.95
Nimble traders may want to look for support near $28.70 as an alternative entry point.

chart: