Editor's Note:
The U.S. market delivered another widespread decline although losses were relatively mild for the big cap indices. It was a different story for the small caps, which accelerated lower.

We have updated a handful of stop losses tonight.

AGCO hit our stop loss. GRMN has been removed. KN hit our entry trigger.


Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Broadcom Corp. - BRCM - close: 40.42 change: -0.23

Stop Loss: 39.45
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 2.8%
Entry on September 19 at $41.60
Listed on September 18, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 5.1 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/30/14: Shares of BRCM held up reasonably well considering the market's widespread decline on Tuesday. If the market continues to sink tomorrow I would expect BRCM to dip toward $40.00 and its simple 30-dma. I would hesitate to launch new positions here.

Earlier Comments: September 18, 2014:
We are quickly approaching a world where everything can and will be connected. Broadcom plans to make it happen by leading the world into the Internet of Things.

Who is Broadcom? The company describes itself as "a global leader and innovator in semiconductor solutions for wired and wireless communications. Broadcom products seamlessly deliver voice, video, data and multimedia connectivity in the home, office and mobile environments. With the industry's broadest portfolio of state-of-the-art system-on-a-chip solutions, Broadcom is changing the world by Connecting everything."

By connecting everything they mean it. From broadband technology to cloud infrastructure to wireless and wearables to home networking, to automotive, appliances, bandwidth to backhaul, GPS to GPON, processors to powerline, set-top box to small cells, wearables to Wi-Fi, Broadcom is designing chips for to connect it.

What is the Internet of Things? It's a hot buzzword right now and one we will hear a lot more often over the next few years. Gartner, the world's leading information technology research company, described the Internet of Things (abbreviated as IoT) as the "network of physical objects that contain embedded technology to communicate and sense or interact with their internal states or the external environment." One concept to help envision this idea is making dumb electronic devices smart. It could be anything from your coffeemaker to your refrigerator.

Gartner estimates that the IoT, "which excludes PCs, tablets and smartphones, will grow to 26 billion units installed in 2020." That is a 30-fold increase from 2009. Cisco Systems (CSCO) believes that the number of connected items could hit 50 billion by 2020. That's six devices for every person on the planet. Gartner is estimating that the products and services for the IoT will generate more than $300 billion in sales by 2020.

The IoT sounds like the next technology revolution. While it's only a few years away that might be too far in the future for some investors to consider. Right now everyone is focused on Apple's (AAPL) new smartphone the iPhone 6. BRCM just happens to be a major supplier for AAPL's new phone.

AAPL revealed their new phone last week. The reviews have been a little over-the-top. Descriptions of the Iphone 6 have been glowing. Some are calling it the "best smartphone on the planet" or the "best smartphone ever made!" One professional reviewer described the new iPhone 6 as the fastest iPhone yet. First-day pre-orders for AAPL's new phone hit a record-breaking four million phones. That is double the number of pre-orders for the iPhone 5 two years ago. There are estimates that AAPL could sell between 60 to 70 million iPhone 6s by the end of 2014. It certainly sounds like they have a hit on their hands and that's good news BRCM.

There was another story out recently that hinted BRCM may have won the contract to supply chips to AAPL's new smart watch as well. AAPL's new watch is expected in 2015.

Meanwhile BRCM continues to see earnings growth. They have beaten analysts' EPS estimates four quarters in a row. Shares of BRCM are currently trading at multi-year highs. The point & figure chart is forecasting a long-term target of $63.00.

Tonight BRCM closed at $41.44 with a high of $41.49. I am suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $41.60. The $40.00 level is short-term support so we'll put our stop loss at $39.45.

- Suggested Positions -

Long BRCM stock @ $41.60

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long 2015 Jan $43 call (BRCM150117C43) entry $1.55*

09/19/14 triggered @ $41.60
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Interactive Brokers Group - IBKR - close: 24.95 change: -0.07

Stop Loss: 23.95
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Entry on September -- at $---.--
Listed on September 27, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 533 thousand
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
09/30/14: IBKR also did a decent job weathering the market's weakness today. Shares continue to consolidate sideways near the $25.00 level. I don't see any changes from the weekend newsletter's new play description.

Earlier Comments: September 27, 2014:
IBKR was founded 37 years ago and has grown its business to where it executes almost one million trades a day. Barron's has rated IBKR the third best online broker three years in a row.

According to a company press release, "Interactive Brokers Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, is an automated global electronic broker that specializes in catering to financial professionals by offering state-of-the-art trading technology, superior execution capabilities, worldwide electronic access, and sophisticated risk management tools at exceptionally low costs. The brokerage trading platform utilizes the same innovative technology as the Company's market making business, which specializes in routing orders and executing and processes trades in securities, futures, foreign exchange instruments, bonds and funds on more than 100 electronic exchanges and trading venues around the world."

"As a market maker, we provide liquidity at these marketplaces and, as a broker, we provide professional traders and investors with electronic access to stocks, options, futures, forex, bonds and mutual funds from a single IB Universal AccountSM. Employing proprietary software on a global communications network, Interactive Brokers Group continuously integrates its software with a growing number of exchanges and trading venues into one automatically functioning, computerized platform that requires minimal human intervention."

This year has not seen any significant increase in trading volumes at the exchanges. If anything volume has been mediocre at best. Yet IBKR has consistently reported stronger year over year DARTs the last several months. DARTs stand for daily average revenue trades. IBKR is also reporting improvement in customer accounts created. I will point out that IBKR is seeing tougher year over year comparisons for its monthly DARTs as the rate of improvement seems to be slowing yet this trend hasn't stopped the stock price.

Shares of IBKR have been consolidating sideways for months. The consolidation started last December when IBKR's 2013 stalled. Since then IBKR has been slowly churning sideways but that changed earlier this month with a bullish breakout to new multi-year highs. The point & figure chart has turned very bullish with a long-term target near $48.50.

The market's recent weakness has pulled IBKR low enough to retest prior resistance as new support. Friday's bounce could be an entry point. We are suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $25.60.

Trigger @ $25.60

- Suggested Positions -

Buy IBKR stock @ (trigger)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Buy the 2015 Jan $26 call (IBKR150117c26)

Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Southwest Airlines - LUV - close: 33.77 change: +0.10

Stop Loss: 32.95
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +1.6%
Entry on September 09 at $33.25
Listed on September 06, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 4.9 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/30/14: A reversal lower in crude oil today could have provided a boost for the airline stocks. However, the intraday gains in LUV did reverse near its 10-dma. We could still see it test short-term support near $33.00 soon. News that the U.S. has its first official case of the Ebola virus is a potential warning sign for the airlines. Should we see a spread of the virus it could impact travel as fearful consumers choose to travel less.

I am not suggesting new positions.

Earlier Comments: September 6, 2014:
Airline stocks have been big winners this year. A big drop in the price of crude oil has been a blessing since fuel is the biggest expense for airliners. Year to date the S&P 500 index is up +8.5%. The XAL airline index is up +26.2%. Yet shares of LUV are up an astounding +74.25%.

According to the company's press release, "Dallas-based Southwest Airlines continues to differentiate itself from other carriers with exemplary Customer Service delivered by more than 45,000 Employees to more than 100 million Customers annually. Based on the most recent data available from the U.S. Department of Transportation, Southwest is the nation's largest carrier in terms of originating domestic passengers boarded. The airline also operates the largest fleet of Boeing aircraft in the world to serve 93 destinations in 40 states, the District of Columbia, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, and five near-international countries via wholly owned subsidiary, AirTran Airways. Southwest is one of the most honored airlines in the world, known for its triple bottom line approach that takes into account the carrier's performance and productivity, the importance of its People and the communities it serves, and its commitment to efficiency and the planet."

Earnings are coming in better than expected. When LUV reported on July 24th Wall Street was looking for a profit of $0.61 a share on revenues of $4.95 billion. LUV reported a profit of $0.70 with revenues up almost 8% to $5.01 billion. Demand for domestic air travel has been strong. Shares of LUV have been showing significant relative strength.

Traders bought the dip on Friday at short-term technical resistance on the simple 10-dma. That left LUV to end the week near all-time highs. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $33.25.

- Suggested Positions -

Long LUV stock @ $33.25

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long 2015 Jan $35 call (LUV150117c35) entry $1.25

09/20/14 new stop @ 32.95
09/18/14 new stop @ 32.75
09/16/14 new stop @ 31.95
09/11/14 speculation that oil might have reversed higher today
09/09/14 triggered $ 33.25
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Super Micro Computer, Inc. - SMCI - close: 29.42 change: +0.02

Stop Loss: 26.90
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +0.9%
Entry on September 29 at $29.15
Listed on September 23, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 389 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/30/14: SMCI's rally continued this morning but shares ran out of steam near round-number resistance at $30.00. SMCI pared its gains back to virtually unchanged on the day. I would look for a dip toward the 10-dma near $28.50 if the market accelerates lower tomorrow.

Earlier Comments: September 24, 2014:
A lot of investors are looking for growth and this company has got it!

With a market cap near $1 billion SMCI is still consider a small cap. According to a company press release they describe themselves as "Super Micro Computer, Inc. or Supermicro, a global leader in high-performance, high-efficiency server technology and innovation is a premier provider of end-to-end green computing solutions for HPC, Data Center, Cloud Computing, Enterprise IT, Hadoop/Big Data and Embedded Systems worldwide. Supermicro's advanced server Building Block Solutions offers a vast array of modular, interoperable components for building energy-efficient, application-optimized, computing solutions."

SMCI's last three earnings reports in a row have been better than expected. As a matter of fact the last three quarterly reports have seen SMCI beat analysts' estimates on both the top and bottom line. All three times SMCI has raised guidance.

SMCI's most recent earnings report was August 5th. Wall Street was looking for $0.39 a share on revenues of $396 million. SMCI delivered $0.40 a share. Revenues came in at $428.1 million. That's a +14.5% increase in sales from the prior quarter and a +32.8% increase from the same quarter a year ago. The company's GAAP net income was up +23.5% quarter over quarter and up +114.3% from a year ago. Gross margins improved both quarter over quarter and from a year ago.

SMCI's Chairman and CEO Charles Liang commented on their Q4 results (Aug 5th) saying "In the fourth quarter, we achieved $428.1 million revenue or 32.8% growth over last year which marked the third straight quarter of record revenues and keeps us on a path to reach our goal of achieving $2 billion annual run rate in the coming fiscal year 2015... with this strong revenue growth combined with operating expense leverage, we achieved record profits. We are looking forward to the new fiscal year and we have been preparing to be a strong market leader in the upcoming technology refresh cycle related to the Intel Grantley (Haswell new processor) launch."

Technically SMCI broke out from a three-month consolidation in mid September. The three-day pullback was mild and traders just bought the dip at its rising 10-dma. If this bounce continues we want to hop on board. I'm suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $29.15.

- Suggested Positions -

Long SMCI stock @ $29.15

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long 2015 Jan $30 call (SMCI150117c30) entry $2.40*

09/29/14 triggered @ 29.15
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike




BEARISH Play Updates

CBS Corp. - CBS - close: 53.50 change: -0.82

Stop Loss: 55.65
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 2.3%
Entry on September 22 at $54.75
Listed on September 20, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 6.1 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/30/14: After consolidating sideways the last couple of days the sell-off in CBS resumed. Shares lost -1.5% and closed at new 2014 lows.

Please note our new stop at $55.65.

Earlier Comments: September 20, 2014:
Television is a cutthroat business. Companies fight with affiliates, content providers, distribution rights, and more. They need to because traditional TV has been dying for years as more and more consumers forgo television for their computer, tablet, or even smartphone to get their media. Companies like Netflix also steal viewership. Granted the major networks have invested a lot to build up their own "second screen" viewership but it's unclear if the investment is paying off.

Who is CBS? According to the company website, "CBS Corporation (NYSE: CBS.A and CBS) is a mass media company that creates and distributes industry-leading content across a variety of platforms to audiences around the world. The Company has businesses with origins that date back to the dawn of the broadcasting age as well as new ventures that operate on the leading edge of media. CBS owns the most-watched television network in the U.S. and one of the world's largest libraries of entertainment content, making its brand – "the Eye" – one of the most recognized in business. The Company's operations span virtually every field of media and entertainment, including cable, publishing, radio, local TV, film, outdoor advertising, and interactive and socially responsible media. CBS's businesses include CBS Television Network, The CW (a joint venture between CBS Corporation and Warner Bros. Entertainment), Showtime Networks, CBS Sports Network, TVGN (a joint venture between CBS Corporation and Lionsgate), Smithsonian Networks, Simon & Schuster, CBS Television Stations, CBS Radio, CBS Television Studios, CBS Global Distribution Group (CBS Studios International and CBS Television Distribution), CBS Interactive, CBS Consumer Products, CBS Home Entertainment, CBS Films and CBS EcoMedia."

Shares of CBS peaked near $68.00 back in early March 2014, marking what looks like the end of a strong two-year rally from its 2011 lows. The challenge seems to be revenues. The last couple of earnings reports have seen CBS beat Wall Street's EPS estimates. How they are doing that could be cost cutting or financial engineering. CBS has announced significant stock buybacks and accelerated repurchases in 2014. Yet revenues keep falling.

Back in May, when CBS reported its Q1 earnings, revenues for the quarter were down -4.6% from a year ago. When CBS reported its Q2 results in early August this year, revenues were down -5.4%. Management tried to soften the blow with news they were doubling their stock buyback from $3 billion to $6 billion. Yet the stock continues to fall. Investors are probably worried about the falling revenue numbers.

Technically shares of CBS are testing major support at its trend line of higher lows (see the weekly chart) and support near $55.00. It also appears that CBS has created a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, albeit one with two right shoulders (which is not uncommon). Thus a breakdown under $55.00 would be very negative for the stock price.

The May 2014 intraday low was $55.01. Tonight I am suggesting a trigger to launch bearish positions at $54.75.

- Suggested Positions -

Short CBS stock @ $54.75

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long 2015 Jan $55 put (CBS150117P55) entry $3.40*

09/30/14 new stop @ 55.65
09/22/14 new stop @ $56.35
09/22/14 triggered @ 54.75
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Johnson Controls Inc. - JCI - close: 44.00 change: -0.63

Stop Loss: 46.05
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 3.1%
Entry on September 23 at $45.40
Listed on September 22, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/30/14: This morning JCI announced it would sell its global work place solutions business (i.e. building management) as the company tries to focus on its "core" businesses. The announcement didn't do much for the share price, which fell -0.8% today.

We are moving the stop loss down to $46.05.

Earlier Comments: September 22, 2014:
The auto part makers were a bright spot in the market for quite a while. Yet JCI has been underperforming its peers for weeks. Now the whole group has reversed sharply lower.

Investors might be growing cautious as earnings growth slows down. Investor's Business Daily noted that the forecast for some of these auto parts makers is getting softer.

Technically the group appears to be rolling over and JCI could be leading the way lower with a bearish breakdown under a long-term trend of higher lows. It doesn't help that JCI now has a "death cross" with the 50-dma falling under its 200-dma, which itself is starting to roll over.

Today's low was $45.66. We are suggesting a trigger for bearish positions at $45.40.

- Suggested Positions -

Short JCI stock @$45.40

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long 2015 Jan $45 PUT (JCI150117P45) entry $2.25

09/30/14 new stop @ 46.05
09/23/14 triggered @ $45.40
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Knowles Corp. - KN - close: 26.50 change: +0.52

Stop Loss: 28.05
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -2.9%
Entry on September 30 at $25.75
Listed on September 29, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/30/14: KN spiked to a new low this morning and then bounced. Shares outperformed the market with a +2.0% gain. There was no news behind the rally. Unfortunately the morning drop was low enough to hit our suggested entry point at $25.75. I would wait for a new low before launching new bearish positions.

Earlier Comments: September 29, 2014:
Knowles Corp. has been around since 1946 but until recently was part of Dover Corp. (DOV). Knowles (KN) was spun off early this year.

What exactly does KN do? According to a company press release "Knowles Corporation is a market leader and global supplier of advanced micro-acoustic solutions and specialty components serving the mobile communications, consumer electronics, medical technology, military, aerospace and industrial markets. Knowles has a leading position in micro-electro-mechanical systems microphones, speakers and receivers which are used in smartphones, tablets and mobile handsets. Knowles is also a leading manufacturer of transducers used in hearing aids and other medical devices and has a strong position in oscillators (timing devices) and capacitor components which enable various types of communication."

KN has sales of more than $1 billion a year. Yet revenues have been falling. It seems to be getting worse. Back in April they reported a -1% drop in revenues. Their last quarterly report showed a -5.3% decline in revenues.

Technically the stock has been stuck in a $28.00-34.00 trading range for months. That changed in the last few days. KN has broken down below the bottom of the range. Its recent attempt at an oversold bounce already appears to be failing.

Tonight we're suggesting a trigger to open bearish positions at $25.75, which would be a new low. We are not setting an exit target tonight but I will note the point & figure chart is bearish and forecasting an $18 target.

Bear in mind that KN does have slightly elevated short interest at more than 10% of the 85 million share float. You may want to consider put options instead of shorting the stock.

- Suggested Positions -

Short KN stock @ $25.75

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long NOV $25 PUT (KN141122P25) entry $1.20*

09/30/14 triggered @ 25.75
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Mobile Mini, Inc. - MINI - close: 34.97 change: -0.94

Stop Loss: 37.30
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 9.9%
Entry on August 28 at $38.80
Listed on August 26, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 265 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/30/14: MINI has reaffirmed yesterday's breakdown under potential support near $36.00 with a -2.6% drop today. Tonight we're adjusting the stop loss down to $37.30, just above yesterday's highs.

Earlier Comments: August 27, 2014:
The mobile storage space might be facing some headwinds. MINI provides commercial storage, construction storage, residential storage, and mobile offices. According to the company's website, "Mobile Mini, Inc. is the world's leading provider of portable storage solutions through its total lease fleet of over 213,000 portable storage and office units with 135 locations in the United States, United Kingdom and Canada. Mobile Mini, Inc. went public in 1994 and trades on NASDAQ under the symbol MINI. Mobile Mini offers customers a wide range of portable storage and office products in varying lengths and widths with an assortment of differentiated features such as: proprietary security systems, multiple door options and 100 different configuration options."

Sales are growing but MINI is developing a trend of missing earnings or delivering lackluster results. MINI missed Wall Street's EPS estimates back in February and April. The latest earnings report was July 30th. Revenues were almost +10% from a year ago but earnings were down. MINI reported a 23-cent profit, which was in-line with estimates but down from 25 cents a year ago. Investors crushed the stock following the late July earnings report. MINI was already weak through most of July and then got hammered from $43 to under $38 on its earnings news.

The stock's long-term up trend might be in jeopardy. The company is not growing fast enough to justify its P/E above 40. The stock's oversold bounce from the post-earnings sell-off has stalled at technical resistance at the exponential 200-dma. Now it appears that MINI is beginning to roll over.

Today's low was $38.93. I'm suggesting a trigger at $38.80 to open bearish positions.

- Suggested Positions -

Short MINI stock @ $38.80

09/30/14 new stop @ 37.30
09/25/14 MINI's failure to drop today might be a warning sign.
09/22/14 new stop @ 37.85
09/06/14 new stop @ 40.10
08/28/14 triggered @ 38.80


Transocean Ltd. - RIG - close: 31.97 change: -0.62

Stop Loss: 33.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +16.3%
Entry on September 03 at $38.20
Listed on August 25, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 6.4 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/30/14: Another day another new low for RIG. Eventually this stock is going to bounce. We might want to consider exiting positions in the $31.00-30.00 zone since $30.00 could be round-number support.

Tonight we will adjust the stop loss down to $33.75.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments: August 25, 2014:
The oil drillers could be facing a significant downturn due to lower demand and rising supply. That's a tough combination for any business.

RIG is one of the biggest. According to the company website, "We are a leading international provider of offshore contract drilling services for energy companies, owning and operating among the world's most versatile fleets with a particular focus on deepwater and harsh-environment drilling. Our fleet of 79 mobile offshore drilling units includes the world's largest fleet of high-specification rigs consisting of ultra-deepwater, deepwater and premium jackup rigs. In addition, we have seven ultra-deepwater drillships and five high-specification jackups under construction."

The company's latest earnings report on August 6th looked pretty good. Wall Street was expecting a profit of $1.12 a share. RIG delivered $1.61 - blow out number. Revenues also beat estimates at $2.33 billion versus the $2.29 estimate but revenues were down from a year ago. Investors ignored the better than expected results. That's because the industry is facing a number of headwinds.

Day rates are dropping and more rigs are sitting idle. Analysts are lowering estimates due to rising down time. RIG's latest fleet update showed that out-of-service time for 2014 had risen by 28 days. Their 2015 projected out-of-service time had surged 236 days. That is significant when you consider that these rigs get paid hundreds of thousands of dollars per day they operate. Of course those numbers are coming down.

Angie Sedita, an analyst with UBS, said, "We believe dayrate pressure will persist given limited rig tenders (demand) and fierce competition, with dayrates already down 25%-40% from peak levels."

Raymond James analyst Praveen Narra provided more details on their bearish outlook. According to Narra:

After a decade of good times, the deepwater drilling rig market is facing a multiyear down-cycle. Historically, most offshore drilling cycles have been short-lived as there have usually been sudden demand shocks that tend to self correct relatively quickly. This time, it is more of a new rig supply problem compounded by a moderation in offshore spending from the suddenly “return driven” multinational major oil companies. That means this down-cycle should be more drawn out than usual. Specifically, we think the downturn will take about three years to play out with average floater day-rates falling about 25% with over 60 floating rigs needing to be stacked (either warm stacked or cold stacked). More importantly for investors, we think consensus 2016 floater estimates (on average) are still about 25% too high. Put another way, earnings multiples are not as attractive as some now think, in our view. Obviously, the lower-end, older floating assets will be hit the hardest. While everyone loses in this environment...

If you're curious a "stacked" rig is not in service. They can be warm stacked, which means they are idle but still have a crew and ready for deployment. A cold stacked rig has essentially been mothballed.

The bearish outlook for RIG is evident in the stock's decline. Shares just broke down under support near $38.00. The Point & Figure chart is bearish and forecasting at $30.00 target but this target could fall further. It is worth noting that there are a lot of traders already bearish on RIG. The most recent data listed short interest at 18% of the 327 million share float. That can spark short squeezes like the one back in April and again in June.

- Suggested Positions -

Short RIG @ $38.20

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long OCT $35 PUT (RIG141018P35) entry $0.27*

09/30/14 new stop @ 33.75
09/27/14 investors may want to take some profits now
09/25/14 new stop @ 34.50
09/22/14 new stop @ 34.75
09/20/14 new stop @ 37.55
09/17/14 new stop @ 38.05
09/06/14 new stop @ 39.05
09/03/14 trade begins. RIG gaps higher at $38.20
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
09/02/14 remove the trigger ($37.25) and short RIG now at current levels.
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


The ExOne Company - XONE - close: 20.89 change: -1.11

Stop Loss: 25.05
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 6.1%
Entry on September 29 at $22.25
Listed on September 27, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 523 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/30/14: XONE continues to underperform the market and lost another -5% today. I want to caution readers that the $20.00 level is potential round-number support so XONE might try and bounce near that area.

Tonight I'm moving our stop loss to $25.05. More conservative traders may want to use a lower stop.

Earlier Comments: September 27, 2014:
Stock prices are supposed to be driven by corporate earnings. It's tough to be bullish when a company continues to miss analyst expectations.

XONE is considered part of the industrial goods sector. They make 3D printers and associated materials. According to a company press release, "ExOne is a global provider of 3D printing machines and printed products, materials and other services to industrial customers. ExOne's business primarily consists of manufacturing and selling 3D printing machines and printing products to specification for its customers using its in-house 3D printing machines"..."ExOne also supplies the associated materials, including consumables and replacement parts, and other services, including training and technical support, necessary for purchasers of its machines to print products."

Unfortunately for the bulls XONE has developed a pattern of missing earnings estimates. They missed estimates back in March, in May, and again in August this year. The most recent report was August 13th. Wall Street expected a loss of 18 cents a share. XONE delivered a loss of 32 cents. Revenues rose +21% to $11.2 million but that failed to meet expectations. XONE's gross profit plunged from $4.2 million a year ago to $2.5 million thanks to crashing gross margins.

Shares of XONE are now at record lows. The company held its IPO back February 2013. The IPO price was $18.00 a share and the first day of trading saw XONE gap open at $23.66 and close up at $26.52. Today XONE is below its opening trade and might be headed for $18.00.

I do consider this an aggressive, higher-risk trade because there is already a lot of short interest. The most recent data listed short interest at 52.8% of the very small 8.7 million share float. That significantly raises the risk of a short squeeze. Therefore traders may want to limit their positions or just choose the put options to limit risk.

Tonight we are suggesting bearish positions on Monday morning (no trigger).

*Higher Risk Trade: consider smaller positions* Suggested Positions -

Short XONE stock @ $22.25

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long NOV $20 PUT (XONE141122P20) entry $1.40*

09/30/14 new stop @ 25.05
09/29/14 trade begins. XONE gaps down at $22.25
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

AGCO Corp. - AGCO - close: 45.46 change: -0.52

Stop Loss: 46.35
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -0.2%
Entry on September 18 at $46.25
Listed on September 16, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 976 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/30/14: It was another bearish day for AGCO with an intraday reversal lower and a -1.1% decline. Unfortunately the early morning rally was enough to hit our stop loss at $46.35.

Our play is closed but readers may want to consider new bearish positions with a drop under $45.00.

- Suggested Positions -

Short AGCO @ $46.25 closed $46.35 (-0.2%)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

NOV $45 PUT (AGCO141122P45) entry $1.25* exit $1.10** (-12.0%)

09/30/14 stopped out
**option exit price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was closed.
09/22/14 new stop @ 46.35
09/18/14 triggered @ 46.25
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Garmin Ltd. - GRMN - close: 51.99 change: +0.12

Stop Loss: 52.25
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Entry on September -- at $---.--
Listed on September 23, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
09/30/14: GRMN is not cooperating. The stock didn't move much today but it did not participate in the market's weakness either.

The overall trend for GRMN looks bearish but our trigger to open positions has not been hit yet. We're electing to remove GRMN as a candidate for now but I would keep this stock on your watch list for a breakdown under $50.00.

Trade did not open.

09/30/14 removed from the newsletter, suggested entry was $49.75

chart: