Editor's Note:
The last few days of October are normally very bullish and this year did not disappoint.

The BABY trade was triggered. We have updated several stop losses tonight.


Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Natus Medical Inc. - BABY - close: 34.00 change: +0.13

Stop Loss: 32.45
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -2.8%
Entry on October 31 at $34.97
Listed on October 30, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 282 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/01/14: The U.S. market gapped open higher on Friday as investors reacted to massive new stimulus from the central bank of Japan. Shares of BABY reacted with a gap open at $34.97. That was above our suggested entry point at $34.35. Not to worry, BABY retreated back toward $34.00 and gave us another chance to buy the stock near its prior highs. At this point I would wait for a new rally past $34.30 before initiating new positions.

Earlier Comments: October 30, 2014:
BABY is in the healthcare sector. The company makes medical equipment to treat newborns. The company's online profile describes NATUS as "a leading manufacturer of medical devices and software and a service provider for the Newborn Care, Neurology, Sleep, Hearing and Balance markets. Natus products are used in hospitals, clinics and laboratories worldwide. Our mission is to improve outcomes and patient care in target markets through innovative screening, diagnostic and treatment solutions."

If you like companies with consistent growth then BABY might work for you. The company has beaten Wall Street's top and bottom line estimates for the last five quarters in a row!

BABY's most recent earnings report was October 22nd. Wall Street was looking for a profit of $0.31 a share on revenues of $87.7 million. BABY delivered $0.33 with revenues rising more than 5% to $89.9 million.

Management then raised their guidance. They expect EPS in-line with analysts' estimates but they offered slightly bullish guidance on Q4 revenues, which should come in above consensus estimates.

Jim Hawkins is BABY's President and CEO. Mr. Hawkins commented on his company's third quarter results saying:

"I am very pleased with our third quarter results as we achieved record revenues and earnings. Both revenue and earnings exceeded the top end of guidance. I am most satisfied with our 63% gross profit margin as well as recording over 5% organic revenue growth. Consistent organic revenue growth and improving margins have been major goals for Natus in 2014 and our results demonstrate significant progress to the achievement of these goals.

I remain excited about our Peloton Hearing Screening Service business as we added 17 hospitals during the quarter and we ended the quarter with 39 hospitals under contact. Including contracts already signed during October, we have exceeded our 2014 goal of 40 hospitals under contract by the end of the year."

Technically shares have been showing relative strength and held up very well during the market's correction between mid-September through mid-October. The stock's recent performance has pushed shares to new all-time highs. Today's intraday high was $34.24. I am suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $34.35.

- Suggested Positions -

Long BABY stock @ $34.97

10/31/14 trade opened on gap higher at $34.97, suggested trigger was $34.35

chart:


Burlington Stores, Inc. - BURL - close: 41.94 chang6: +0.37

Stop Loss: 39.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 2.2%
Entry on October 30 at $41.05
Listed on October 27, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 663 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/01/14: BURL ended the week at a record high. If you are looking for an entry point I suggest waiting for a dip near $41.00.

Tonight we are adjusting the stop loss to $39.85.

Earlier Comments: October 27, 2014:
Christmas is less than 60 days away. This year retail spending is expected to surge. The National Retail Federation is forecasting sales during the holiday shopping season to rise +4.1%. Analyst firm Deloitte LLP is expecting a +4.5% improvement. Last year we only saw +2.8% growth and the 10-year average is +2.9%.

If we take into account the positive impact low gasoline prices will have then the estimates above might be too low. Fuel prices are down nearly 20% from their early 2014 highs. That is a huge boost for consumer spending. Oil looks like it will continue to sink so the trend should continue.

The off-price retailers have been outperforming their regular price peers. BURL is part of the off-price group. According to their company website, "Burlington is a national off price retailer offering style for less for the entire family and the home with up to 65 percent off department store prices every day. Departments include ladies' dresses, suits and sportswear, juniors, accessories, menswear, family footwear, children's clothing, furniture and accessories for baby at Baby Depot, home décor and gifts, along with the largest selection of coats in the nation for the entire family. Burlington has 520 stores in 44 States and Puerto Rico."

Credit Suisse recently noted that BURL has delivered three years in a row of strong same-store sales growth. They did it again when the company reported earnings in early September. BURL said their same-store sales grew +4.7% in their second quarter, compared to estimates for +2-3% growth. Management also noted that their gross margins improved by 50 basis points to 38.2%.

Wall Street was expecting a loss of 8 cents per share on revenues of $1.03 billion. BURL delivered a loss of only one cent and revenues were up +8.2% to $1.05 billion. It was a big improvement from a loss of 19 cents a year ago. More importantly management raised their 2015 guidance for both their earnings and revenue estimates.

The bears will argue that BURL is expensive. It's hard to argue with them since BURL currently sports a P/E near 58. However, investors continue to buy the stock and now shares are poised for another bullish breakout. New highs could spark some short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at 13% of the very small 29.3 million share float.

Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $41.05.

- Suggested Positions -

Long BURL stock @ $41.05

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long DEC $40 call (BURL141220c40) entry $3.10

11/01/14 new stop @ 39.85
10/30/14 triggered @ 41.05
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


INSYS Therapeutics, Inc. - INSY - close: 40.68 change: -1.32

Stop Loss: 37.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +1.1%
Entry on October 21 at $40.25
Listed on October 20, 2014
Time Frame: Probably exit prior to earnings on Nov. 11th
Average Daily Volume = 540 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/01/14: Uh-oh! INSY saw some profit taking on Friday with a -3.1% decline. More importantly this looks like a potential failed rally near its early October highs. INSY could be forming a bearish double top pattern.

Traders may want to raise their stop loss. I am not suggesting new positions.

FYI: Earnings are coming up on November 11th.

Earlier Comments: October 20, 2014
INSY is a short squeeze candidate. The company is part of the healthcare sector, more specifically biotechnology. They currently market two drugs. One is their Subsys, which is a sublingual fentanyl spray to quickly treat pain for cancer patients. Thus far the product seems to be off to a strong start. INSY also markets a generic Dronabinol product to help treat chemotherapy induced nausea as well as anorexia related to patients with AIDS.

INSY is also developing treatments with cannabidiol, which has made headlines in the past. Cannabidiol is a component of marijuana that does not provide patients with a high. INSY has been working with cannabidiol to develop a treatment for Dravet Syndrome, a form of childhood epilepsy.

INSYS was recently granted orphan drug designation for its cannabidiol treatment for glioblastoma multiforme, which is the most aggressive version of malignant brain tumors in humans. Yet this good news has been offset by bad news that the FDA rejected the company's application for a new Dronabinol oral solution. The feds claim INSY submitted an incomplete study plan on the treatment's safety.

There is also the spectre of a federal investigation. Shares of INSY collapsed back in May after it was unveiled that one doctor in Michigan was fraudulently prescribing hundreds of INSY's Subsys painkiller treatment. This has sparked an investigation into INSY' marketing practices.

Technically shares of INSYS have been trending higher with a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. The most recent low happened to be on the day investors reacted to the FDA rejection on its dronabinol oral treatment. INSY was down about -10% intraday and then rebounded to a huge gain (Oct. 15th).

If this rally continues INSY could see a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 68.6% of the extremely small 10.19 million share float.

Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $40.25. More aggressive traders might want to consider a trigger just above $39.50 instead.

Please note that I am labeling this a higher-risk, more aggressive trade. Biotechs are already dangerous do to headline risk. INSY could be volatile with all the short interest.

*Small positions to limit risk* - Suggested Positions -

Long INSY stock @ $40.25

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long NOV $45 call (INSY141122c45) entry $1.60*

11/01/14 Caution: INSY might be forming a double top
10/29/14 New analyst upgrade and price target send INSY higher
10/28/14 new stop @ 37.75, Investors will want to consider an early exit now!
10/23/14 new stop @ 37.45
10/23/14 INSY is not cooperating. Investors may want to exit early now.
10/21/14 triggered @ 40.25
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Lowe's Companies - LOW - close: 57.20 change: +0.93

Stop Loss: 55.35
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +3.9%
Entry on October 23 at $55.05
Listed on October 21, 2014
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings on November 19th
Average Daily Volume = 5.5 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/01/14: LOW continues to show relative strength. The stock gapped open higher on Friday morning and closed with a +1.65% gain. This is a new all-time high. It's also the 10th gain in the last 12 sessions. LOW is looking short-term overbought here. We are raising our stop loss to $55.35. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments: October 21, 2014:
LOW is in the services sector. They run the second biggest chain of home improvement stores in the country. Their 1,837 stores offer more than 200 million square feet of retail space through the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.

The company's most recent earnings report was back in August. LOW beat Wall Street's top and bottom line estimates. Revenues were up +18.2% from a year ago. Gross margins saw some improvement. Same-store sales were up +4.4%, which was impressive. Management provided a small reduction in their full year revenue guidance but this failed to have much impact on the stock. Shares of LOW gapped down on its earnings news and investors bought the dip at support near $50.00.

Since this August earnings report we've seen homebuilder confidence hit nine-year highs while shares of LOW were hitting all-time highs in the $54-55 zone. Investors keep track of the housing market because LOW's business seems to rise and fall with real estate.

The stock market's recent volatility drug LOW back to support near $50.00 and once again traders bought the dip. There was a recent analyst note that was cautious on LOW and its rival Home Depot. The analyst noted that a slow down in sales for building materials would suggest the slowdown should hit retailers too. We may have to wait for LOW's earnings report to see if the analyst is right. In the mean time shares of LOW just ended at an all-time closing high.

If you believe the U.S. economy will continue to improve and the labor market will continue to see job growth then home improvement retailers like LOW and HD should see steady improvement as well.

We are not setting an exit target tonight but I will point out that the point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting a long-term $75.00 target for LOW.

Use a trigger at $55.05 to open bullish positions. We will most likely exit ahead of LOW's earnings report on November 19th.

- Suggested Positions -

Long LOW stock @ $55.05

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long NOV $55 call (LOW141122c55) entry $1.45*

11/01/14 new stop @ 55.35
10/23/14 triggered @ 55.05
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


The Pantry, Inc. - PTRY - close: 25.77 change: +0.41

Stop Loss: 24.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +5.2%
Entry on October 17 at $24.50
Listed on October 15, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 190 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/01/14: PTRY hit new multi-year highs near $26.50 on Friday morning. After a strong weekly move higher the stock did see some profit taking ahead of the weekend. PTRY did manage to post its fifth weekly gain in a row.

Tonight we are moving the stop loss up to $24.85. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments: October 16, 2014:
This is a simple relative strength trade. PTRY has been almost bullet proof against the market's recent weakness. Instead of following the major indices lower PTRY has soared to new four-year highs.

The company website says, "Headquartered in Cary, North Carolina, The Pantry, Inc. is a leading independently operated convenience store chain in the southeastern United States and one of the largest independently operated convenience store chains in the country. As of September 25, 2014, the Company operated 1,518 stores in thirteen states under select banners, including Kangaroo Express, its primary operating banner. The Pantry's stores offer a broad selection of merchandise, as well as fuel and other ancillary services designed to appeal to the convenience needs of its customers."

PTRY is a small cap stock that has been dead money for years. That seemed to change with their last earnings report. When PTRY delivered earnings on July 30th they beat estimates on both the top and bottom line. The stock soared and broke out past key resistance. Several analysts have raised their earnings estimates on PTRY since that report.

Shares are currently hovering just under short-term resistance at $24.40. We are suggesting a trigger to launch small bullish positions at $24.50. I am suggesting small positions to limit our risk. Looking at a long-term weekly chart of PTRY you could argue that the $25.00 level might be resistance. We will try and limit our risk with a stop loss at $22.90, just under today's low.

*small positions to limit risk* Suggested Positions -

Long PTRY stock @ $24.50

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long DEC $25 call (PTRY141220c25) entry $1.60*

11/01/14 new stop @ 24.85
10/30/14 new stop @ 23.80
10/23/14 new stop @ 23.30
10/17/14 triggered @ $24.50
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Sonic Corp. - SONC - close: 25.21 change: +0.32

Stop Loss: 24.45
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +0.2%
Entry on October 29 at $25.15
Listed on October 25, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 738 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/01/14: SONC erased Thursday's decline with a +1.28% bounce on Friday. Shares seem to be struggling to escape the gravitational pull of the $25.00 level. Investors might want to wait for a rally past $25.50 before initiating new positions.

Tonight we are moving the stop loss to $24.45.

Earlier Comments: October 25, 2014:
"Service at the speed of sound." That was SONIC's original slogan after the company was rebranded from a chain of Top Hat root beer stands decades ago. Today the company has over 3,500 locations in 44 states. That makes SONIC the largest chain of drive-in restaurants in the United States.

Shares of SONC saw big gains in 2013. The rally continues in 2014 but it has been a much more volatile year for the share price. Yet in spite of all the ups and downs SONC is still respecting the long-term bullish trend of higher lows. Now with strong earnings numbers the stock it hitting multi-year highs.

SONC recently reported its Q4 results on October 21st. Same-store sales in the quarter were up +4.6% and margins improved 150 basis points. Net profits came in at 34 cents a share, which is a 62% improvement from the same period a year ago. Revenues were up +3.1%, which beat Wall Street's estimates.

Management guided in-line and SONC expects profit growth of 18-20% in 2015. Multiple analyst firms raised their price target on SONC stock follow these results. The stock's rally has produced a buy signal on the point & figure chart that is forecasting a long-term target near $35.00.

Friday's high was $25.07. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $25.15. We will start with a stop loss at $23.75. I will point out that the 2007 highs in the $25.30-26.20 area is potential resistance so this might be considered a more aggressive entry point.

- Suggested Positions -

Long SONC stock @ $25.15

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long DEC $25 call (SONC141220C25) entry $0.95

11/01/14 new stop @ 24.45
10/29/14 triggered @ 25.15
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Zumiez Inc. - ZUMZ - close: $33.38 change: -0.49

Stop Loss: 32.45
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 2.3%
Entry on October 29 at $34.15
Listed on October 28, 2014
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings in early December
Average Daily Volume = 296 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/01/14: The stock market's widespread rally on Friday morning pushed ZUMZ to new two-year highs. Unfortunately the rally didn't last. The stock experienced some profit taking and closed with a -1.4% decline. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Tonight we are moving the stop loss up to $32.45.

Earlier Comments: October 28, 2014:
ZUMZ is in the services sector. The company is considered a specialty retailer. The website describes the company as "a leading multi-channel specialty retailer of action sports related apparel, footwear, equipment and accessories, focusing on skateboarding, snowboarding, surfing, motocross and BMX for young men and women. As of October 4, 2014 we operated 594 stores, included 545 in the United States, 34 in Canada, and 15 in Europe. We operate under the name Zumiez and Blue Tomato. Additionally, we operate ecommerce web sites at www.zumiez.com and www.blue-tomato.com."

Apparel retailers as a group have been pretty hit or miss this year. Yet the sports-related names have been doing okay. ZUMZ's focus on sports-related clothing and equipment might insulate it from the normally finicky teen crowd.

ZUMZ's latest earnings report was back in September. You can see the gap down on the daily chart. ZUMZ beat EPS estimates by 4 cents as earnings grew +35%. Yet revenues only rose +11.9% and missed analysts' estimates. More importantly management issued somewhat soft EPS guidance. The good news for investors is that the post-earnings sell-off did not see any follow through. Instead ZUMZ continues to build on its multi-month trend of higher lows.

I suspect investors might be willing to over look guidance that was a couple of cents below Wall Street's estimates in favor of a company that continues to grow same-store sales. ZUMZ has a pretty good track record with the retailer reporting same-store sales growth that beat analysts' estimates several months in a row. Their latest sales data was very impressive. On October 8th ZUMZ said their net sales in September rose +12.5% while their comparable store sales soared +6.6% compared to estimates for only +2.7% growth.

The current rally has lifted ZUMZ stock to new 2014 highs and the point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting a long-term target of $46.00. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $34.15. We will plan on exiting prior to ZUMZ's next earnings report in early December.

- Suggested Positions -

Long ZUMZ stock @ $34.15

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long DEC $35 call (ZUMZ141220C35) entry $1.60

11/01/14 new stop @ 32.45
10/29/14 triggered @ 34.15
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:




BEARISH Play Updates

Pandora Media, Inc. - P - close: 19.28 change: +0.54

Stop Loss: 20.55
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 1.3%
Entry on October 30 at $19.04
Listed on October 29, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 7.1 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/01/14: The stock market produced a very widespread rally on Friday so it's not too surprising to see Pandora with an oversold bounce. Shares gained +2.8%. Traders may want to wait for a failed rally near resistance at the $20.00 level before considering new bearish positions.

Earlier Comments: October 29, 2014:
Pandora is in the services sector. The company provides streaming music over the Internet and through your mobile device. They have over 200 million registered users and over 76 million active users.

It has been a really rough year for shares of Pandora. The stock is down over 50% from its all-time high of $40.44 set in March this year. Traders have been selling the rallies for months. If you only looked at the profit numbers you might be surprised by Pandora's performance.

Pandora's most recent earnings report was October 23rd. They beat analysts' estimates with a profit of 9 cents per share. That's a +50% improvement from a year ago. Revenues were up +41.5% from a year ago to $239.6 million, which also surpassed analysts' estimates. Pandora said listener hours soared +25% to almost 5 billion hours in the third quarter versus a year ago. The company's guidance was actually somewhat bullish with Pandora guiding slightly above consensus estimates on both the top and bottom line.

Given this impressive growth from 2013 you might think the stock would be soaring. Unfortunately for Pandora shareholders the company is seeing growth actually slow down and that's due to significant competition.

The 4.99 billion listener hours last quarter may have been up from a year ago but it's down -1% from the second quarter. The company's active users came in at 76.5 million users in the third quarter. That's up +5.2% from a year ago but it's virtually flat versus the 76.4 million from the prior quarter.

The slowdown is likely a result of too much competition. There are a ton of streaming music services like Rdio, Deezer, Grooveshark, Xbox Music, Sony Music Unlimited, and Songza. Yet the major competitors for Pandora are probably Spotify, Amazon.com's Prime Music, Apple's iTunes radio, which will soon merge with Beats Music, and finally Google has their Google Play Music All Access service. If all the competition wasn't enough Pandora also has to contend with music labels constantly fighting to raise the royalties that Pandora has to pay.

There are plenty of bears in this name. The most recent data listed short interest at 13.2% of the 197.2 million share float. Given the stock's recent performance, the slowing growth, and rising competition, the bears should have the upper hand. The stock's performance has produced a bearish signal on the point & figure chart, which is forecasting a long-term target of $11.00.

Tonight we are suggesting bearish positions at the opening bell tomorrow morning. More conservative traders could wait for a new relative low under $18.90 instead. The next support level might be the $15.00 area.

- Suggested Positions -

Short P stock @ $19.04

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long 2015 Jan $19 PUT (P150117p19) entry $1.71

10/30/14 trade begins. P opens @ $19.04
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart: