Editor's Note:
The market's major indices ended the first week of November at new highs.

AMBA hit our entry trigger on Friday. BABY hit our stop loss.


Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Ambarella, Inc. - AMBA - close: 47.14 change: +1.13

Stop Loss: 43.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 1.4%
Entry on November 07 at $46.50
Listed on November 06, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/08/14: Our new play on AMBA is off to a good start. Traders bought the dip on Friday morning and the stock rebounded to a +2.4% gain. Our suggested entry point to launch bullish positions was hit at $46.50.

Earlier Comments: November 6, 2014:
AMBA is in the technology sector. They're considered part of the semiconductor and semiconductor equipment makers. The company was founded in 2004 and went public in October 2012 at $6.00 a share. That price was significantly below where AMBA was expected to price in the $9-11 range. Investor sentiment has definitely changed since then.

The company has grown from making broadcast-class encoders to making consumer and sports cameras, security cameras, and now automotive cameras. Their high-definition chips are being integrated into security IP cameras and wearable cameras. AMBA is also capturing part of a new market - cameras on consumer-level remote control drones.

The last two plus years have seen a strong performance in AMBA with the stock up more than +600% from its IPO price. AMBA has GoPro, Inc. (GPRO) to thank for part of that rally. GPRO came to market in June this year and the stock has been in rally mode since mid August with a rally in GPRO from less than $40 to $90 a share. I mention GPRO because AMBA happens to make the HD camera sensors in many of GPRO's products. As GPRO rallies it could be giving AMBA a boost and GPRO expects record sales this holiday season. I find it interesting that GPRO has been chopping sideways the last few weeks while AMBA has hit new highs.

Another note on GPRO, the company reported earnings on October 30th and beat estimates on both the top and bottom line. GPRO management then raised their earnings guidance significantly above Wall Street's estimates. That should spell good news for AMBA's business with GPRO.

GPRO isn't the only one with strong earnings. AMBA's rally has been helped by consistent earnings growth. The company has beat Wall Street's estimates on both the top and bottom line for the last four quarters in a row. Their most recent earnings report in September saw AMBA's management raise their revenue guidance.

Shorts are getting killed. As the rally continues AMBA could see more short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at 26.7% of the small 28.0 million share float.

Currently AMBA is bouncing from the $44.00 level after a two-day pullback. If this rebound continues we want to hop on board. The company will likely report earnings in early December so our time frame is the next four to six weeks.

- Suggested Positions -

Long AMBA stock @ $46.50

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long DEC $50 call (AMBA141220C50) entry $2.15

11/07/14 triggered @ $46.50
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Burlington Stores, Inc. - BURL - close: 42.32 change: -0.56

Stop Loss: 39.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 3.1%
Entry on October 30 at $41.05
Listed on October 27, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 663 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/08/14: I am urging caution on our BURL trade. Friday's performance was bearish. Not only did BURL erase Thursday's gains but it created a bearish engulfing candlestick reversal pattern. These patterns need to see confirmation but it's still a warning signal.

The simple 10-dma near $41.70 is the nearest support.

Earlier Comments: October 27, 2014:
Christmas is less than 60 days away. This year retail spending is expected to surge. The National Retail Federation is forecasting sales during the holiday shopping season to rise +4.1%. Analyst firm Deloitte LLP is expecting a +4.5% improvement. Last year we only saw +2.8% growth and the 10-year average is +2.9%.

If we take into account the positive impact low gasoline prices will have then the estimates above might be too low. Fuel prices are down nearly 20% from their early 2014 highs. That is a huge boost for consumer spending. Oil looks like it will continue to sink so the trend should continue.

The off-price retailers have been outperforming their regular price peers. BURL is part of the off-price group. According to their company website, "Burlington is a national off price retailer offering style for less for the entire family and the home with up to 65 percent off department store prices every day. Departments include ladies' dresses, suits and sportswear, juniors, accessories, menswear, family footwear, children's clothing, furniture and accessories for baby at Baby Depot, home décor and gifts, along with the largest selection of coats in the nation for the entire family. Burlington has 520 stores in 44 States and Puerto Rico."

Credit Suisse recently noted that BURL has delivered three years in a row of strong same-store sales growth. They did it again when the company reported earnings in early September. BURL said their same-store sales grew +4.7% in their second quarter, compared to estimates for +2-3% growth. Management also noted that their gross margins improved by 50 basis points to 38.2%.

Wall Street was expecting a loss of 8 cents per share on revenues of $1.03 billion. BURL delivered a loss of only one cent and revenues were up +8.2% to $1.05 billion. It was a big improvement from a loss of 19 cents a year ago. More importantly management raised their 2015 guidance for both their earnings and revenue estimates.

The bears will argue that BURL is expensive. It's hard to argue with them since BURL currently sports a P/E near 58. However, investors continue to buy the stock and now shares are poised for another bullish breakout. New highs could spark some short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at 13% of the very small 29.3 million share float.

Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $41.05.

- Suggested Positions -

Long BURL stock @ $41.05

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long DEC $40 call (BURL141220c40) entry $3.10

11/01/14 new stop @ 39.85
10/30/14 triggered @ 41.05
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Columbia Sportswear Co. - COLM - close: 40.41 change: +0.27

Stop Loss: 38.25
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 0.4%
Entry on November 06 at $40.25
Listed on November 04, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 138 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/08/14: COLM garnered some bullish analyst comments on Friday and shares rallied to another three-month high. COLM is now up six out of the last seven trading days. I would still consider new positions now or you could wait for a dip near $40.00. Broken resistance at the 200-dma (near 39.75) and the $40.00 level should be new support.

Earlier Comments: November 5, 2014:
COLM has been consistently beating earnings expectations all year long. The company is part of the consumer goods sector.

According to a company press release, "Columbia Sportswear Company is a leader in the global outdoor and active lifestyle apparel, footwear, accessories and equipment industry. Founded in 1938 in Portland, Oregon, the company has assembled a portfolio of global brands whose products are sold in approximately 100 countries. In addition to the Columbia brand, Columbia Sportswear Company also owns the Mountain Hardwear, Sorel, prAna, Montrail and OutDry brands."

The trend of earnings in 2014 has been strong with COLM beating Wall Street's earnings estimates four quarters in a row and raising guidance three out of four quarters. Their most recent earnings report was October 30th. Analysts were looking for a profit of $0.87 per share on revenues of $632.29 million. COLM delivered earnings growth of +20% to $0.93 a share. Revenues soared +29% to $675.3 million.

Management then raised their full year 2014 earnings and revenue guidance above analysts' estimates. COLM expects 2014 sales to hit $2.06 billion, which is +22% improvement above 2013. They also expect gross margins to rise 130 basis points from a year ago. COLM is guiding 2014 net income to rise +35% to $1.80 per share.

COLM's president and chief executive office, Tim Boyle, said they expect 2015 net sales to grow at a double-digit rate above their new 2014 estimate of $2.06 billion. They plan to hit mid-teen operating margins.

COLM appears to have strong sales momentum as we head into the crucial holiday shopping season. Retail analysts are expecting industry wide sales to be above average this year. Low gasoline prices provide a great tailwind for all the consumer goods companies.

Technically shares of COLM found support near $34-35 dating back to their prior highs (see the long-term chart below). The rebound has accelerated thanks to the company's earnings report and bullish guidance. Now COLMN is breaking out past resistance at $40.00 and its simple 200-dma. We are suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $40.25.

- Suggested Positions -

Long COLM stock @ $40.25

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long 2015 Jan $40 call (COLM150117C40) entry $1.75

11/06/14 triggered @ $40.25
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Lowe's Companies - LOW - close: 57.69 change: +0.12

Stop Loss: 55.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +4.8%
Entry on October 23 at $55.05
Listed on October 21, 2014
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings on November 19th
Average Daily Volume = 5.5 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/08/14: Shares of LOW continue to resist any profit taking. The stock hit new highs again on Friday and is up almost $8.00 from its October low.

The company has earnings coming up on November 19th and its rival Home Depot (HD) will report on the 18th. We will plan on exiting this trade on Friday, November 14th to avoid holding over the earnings report, unless we get stopped out first. More conservative traders may want to move their stop closer to the 10-dma near $56.75.

Our November call option has doubled in value. Traders may want to take profits now.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments: October 21, 2014:
LOW is in the services sector. They run the second biggest chain of home improvement stores in the country. Their 1,837 stores offer more than 200 million square feet of retail space through the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.

The company's most recent earnings report was back in August. LOW beat Wall Street's top and bottom line estimates. Revenues were up +18.2% from a year ago. Gross margins saw some improvement. Same-store sales were up +4.4%, which was impressive. Management provided a small reduction in their full year revenue guidance but this failed to have much impact on the stock. Shares of LOW gapped down on its earnings news and investors bought the dip at support near $50.00.

Since this August earnings report we've seen homebuilder confidence hit nine-year highs while shares of LOW were hitting all-time highs in the $54-55 zone. Investors keep track of the housing market because LOW's business seems to rise and fall with real estate.

The stock market's recent volatility drug LOW back to support near $50.00 and once again traders bought the dip. There was a recent analyst note that was cautious on LOW and its rival Home Depot. The analyst noted that a slow down in sales for building materials would suggest the slowdown should hit retailers too. We may have to wait for LOW's earnings report to see if the analyst is right. In the mean time shares of LOW just ended at an all-time closing high.

If you believe the U.S. economy will continue to improve and the labor market will continue to see job growth then home improvement retailers like LOW and HD should see steady improvement as well.

We are not setting an exit target tonight but I will point out that the point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting a long-term $75.00 target for LOW.

Use a trigger at $55.05 to open bullish positions. We will most likely exit ahead of LOW's earnings report on November 19th.

- Suggested Positions -

Long LOW stock @ $55.05

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long NOV $55 call (LOW141122c55) entry $1.45

11/05/14 new stop @ 55.85
11/01/14 new stop @ 55.35
10/23/14 triggered @ 55.05
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


The Pantry, Inc. - PTRY - close: 27.21 change: -0.16

Stop Loss: 24.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +11.1%
Entry on October 17 at $24.50
Listed on October 15, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 190 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/08/14: PTRY continues to be a relative strength leader with the stock up six weeks in a row. Shares have set a string of new multi-year highs.

PTRY is currently overbought and due for a pullback. Investors might want to take some money off the table. Or you may want to raise your stop closer to the 10-dma (currently near $25.85).

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments: October 16, 2014:
This is a simple relative strength trade. PTRY has been almost bullet proof against the market's recent weakness. Instead of following the major indices lower PTRY has soared to new four-year highs.

The company website says, "Headquartered in Cary, North Carolina, The Pantry, Inc. is a leading independently operated convenience store chain in the southeastern United States and one of the largest independently operated convenience store chains in the country. As of September 25, 2014, the Company operated 1,518 stores in thirteen states under select banners, including Kangaroo Express, its primary operating banner. The Pantry's stores offer a broad selection of merchandise, as well as fuel and other ancillary services designed to appeal to the convenience needs of its customers."

PTRY is a small cap stock that has been dead money for years. That seemed to change with their last earnings report. When PTRY delivered earnings on July 30th they beat estimates on both the top and bottom line. The stock soared and broke out past key resistance. Several analysts have raised their earnings estimates on PTRY since that report.

Shares are currently hovering just under short-term resistance at $24.40. We are suggesting a trigger to launch small bullish positions at $24.50. I am suggesting small positions to limit our risk. Looking at a long-term weekly chart of PTRY you could argue that the $25.00 level might be resistance. We will try and limit our risk with a stop loss at $22.90, just under today's low.

*small positions to limit risk* Suggested Positions -

Long PTRY stock @ $24.50

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long DEC $25 call (PTRY141220c25) entry $1.60*

11/08/14 traders may want to take some money off the table here.
11/01/14 new stop @ 24.85
10/30/14 new stop @ 23.80
10/23/14 new stop @ 23.30
10/17/14 triggered @ $24.50
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Sonic Corp. - SONC - close: 24.98 change: -0.15

Stop Loss: 24.45
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -0.7%
Entry on October 29 at $25.15
Listed on October 25, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 738 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/08/14: We need to be cautious here with SONC. Shares just snapped a six-week winning streak. It could be just a pause in the rally or it could be a potential reversal in the making.

It's worth noting that Friday's move is bearish because it's the first close below the simple 10-dma since September, which is a warning signal.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments: October 25, 2014:
"Service at the speed of sound." That was SONIC's original slogan after the company was rebranded from a chain of Top Hat root beer stands decades ago. Today the company has over 3,500 locations in 44 states. That makes SONIC the largest chain of drive-in restaurants in the United States.

Shares of SONC saw big gains in 2013. The rally continues in 2014 but it has been a much more volatile year for the share price. Yet in spite of all the ups and downs SONC is still respecting the long-term bullish trend of higher lows. Now with strong earnings numbers the stock it hitting multi-year highs.

SONC recently reported its Q4 results on October 21st. Same-store sales in the quarter were up +4.6% and margins improved 150 basis points. Net profits came in at 34 cents a share, which is a 62% improvement from the same period a year ago. Revenues were up +3.1%, which beat Wall Street's estimates.

Management guided in-line and SONC expects profit growth of 18-20% in 2015. Multiple analyst firms raised their price target on SONC stock follow these results. The stock's rally has produced a buy signal on the point & figure chart that is forecasting a long-term target near $35.00.

Friday's high was $25.07. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $25.15. We will start with a stop loss at $23.75. I will point out that the 2007 highs in the $25.30-26.20 area is potential resistance so this might be considered a more aggressive entry point.

- Suggested Positions -

Long SONC stock @ $25.15

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long DEC $25 call (SONC141220C25) entry $0.95

11/01/14 new stop @ 24.45
10/29/14 triggered @ 25.15
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Zumiez Inc. - ZUMZ - close: $35.10 change: +0.04

Stop Loss: 32.45
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 2.8%
Entry on October 29 at $34.15
Listed on October 28, 2014
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings in early December
Average Daily Volume = 296 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/08/14: ZUMZ delivered a strong performance last week. Traders bought the dip at its trend of higher lows. Then the company announced stronger than expected same-store sales data for October. ZUMZ shares are up three weeks in a row and closed at new two-year highs.

I am not suggesting new positions at current levels.

Earlier Comments: October 28, 2014:
ZUMZ is in the services sector. The company is considered a specialty retailer. The website describes the company as "a leading multi-channel specialty retailer of action sports related apparel, footwear, equipment and accessories, focusing on skateboarding, snowboarding, surfing, motocross and BMX for young men and women. As of October 4, 2014 we operated 594 stores, included 545 in the United States, 34 in Canada, and 15 in Europe. We operate under the name Zumiez and Blue Tomato. Additionally, we operate ecommerce web sites at www.zumiez.com and www.blue-tomato.com."

Apparel retailers as a group have been pretty hit or miss this year. Yet the sports-related names have been doing okay. ZUMZ's focus on sports-related clothing and equipment might insulate it from the normally finicky teen crowd.

ZUMZ's latest earnings report was back in September. You can see the gap down on the daily chart. ZUMZ beat EPS estimates by 4 cents as earnings grew +35%. Yet revenues only rose +11.9% and missed analysts' estimates. More importantly management issued somewhat soft EPS guidance. The good news for investors is that the post-earnings sell-off did not see any follow through. Instead ZUMZ continues to build on its multi-month trend of higher lows.

I suspect investors might be willing to over look guidance that was a couple of cents below Wall Street's estimates in favor of a company that continues to grow same-store sales. ZUMZ has a pretty good track record with the retailer reporting same-store sales growth that beat analysts' estimates several months in a row. Their latest sales data was very impressive. On October 8th ZUMZ said their net sales in September rose +12.5% while their comparable store sales soared +6.6% compared to estimates for only +2.7% growth.

The current rally has lifted ZUMZ stock to new 2014 highs and the point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting a long-term target of $46.00. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $34.15. We will plan on exiting prior to ZUMZ's next earnings report in early December.

- Suggested Positions -

Long ZUMZ stock @ $34.15

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long DEC $35 call (ZUMZ141220C35) entry $1.60

11/01/14 new stop @ 32.45
10/29/14 triggered @ 34.15
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:




BEARISH Play Updates

Coach, Inc. - COH - close: 33.66 change: +0.20

Stop Loss: 34.65
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 2.6%
Entry on November 05 at $32.80
Listed on November 04, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 4.6 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/08/14: COH has produced a little oversold bounce the last couple of days but the rebound stalled at resistance near $34.00 and its 10-dma on Friday. I would still consider new bearish positions here or as an alternative you could wait for a new relative low under $32.70 instead.

Earlier Comments: November 4, 2014:
The Coach brand could be dying and may never regain its previous cachet in the luxury goods market. The company describes itself as, "Coach, established in New York City in 1941, is a leading design house of modern luxury accessories and lifestyle collections with a rich heritage of pairing exceptional leathers and materials with innovative design. Coach is sold worldwide through Coach stores, select department stores and specialty stores, and through Coach’s website at www.coach.com."

Unfortunately for COH their sales have been falling for quite some time. They're currently in the midst of a turnaround plan but they're not seeing results fast enough and investors are losing their patience. The company's most recent earnings report was October 28th. COH beat Wall Street's estimates on both the top and bottom line but the devil is in the details.

Analysts were expecting COH's Q1 (calendar Q3) results to be $0.45 per share on revenues of $1.01 billion. The company delivered $0.53 cents and revenues hit $1.04 billion. Sadly, at 53 cents per share, COH's earnings are still down -31% from a year ago. At $1.04 billion, revenues dropped -9.7%. Margins also contracted from a year ago.

A key metric to watch for any retailer is same-store sales. The company gets about 65% of their total sales in the North American market. Sales were down -19%. Same-store sales were off -24%. That was actually better than analysts' estimates of -25.5%. A year ago COH's same-store North American sales were -6.8%. Last quarter they were -17%. You can see the trend is getting worse.

Disastrous sales in the N. America were offset by +4% sales growth internationally. Yet again it's the details that paint the real picture. Japan saw sales drop -12%, which was the eighth quarter of declines in a row. COH saw sales in China rise +10% but that's down from +20% the prior quarter.

Coach's CEO Victor Luis blamed their terrible results on rising competition and "intensified promotional activity". He's right. It's a tough market for the luxury handbag and accessory business. COH's main rival, Michael Kors (KORS) just reported their earnings results today. KORS also beat Wall Street's top and bottom line estimates. Yet KORS warned of slowing growth and same-store sales. That's terrible news as we approach the key holiday shopping season. KORS blamed slower spending in North America and less mall traffic.

Both companies face challenges. COH may not be able to recover. They were once a highly coveted, luxury brand. Yet today they get 70% of their revenues from their discount stores. That could prove to be an impossible job to reverse this trend now that customers expect to buy COH products at a discount. The high-end customer may have moved on.

- Suggested Positions -

Short COH stock @ $32.80

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long 2015 Jan $30 PUT (COH150117P30) entry $0.75

11/05/14 triggered @ $32.80
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Pandora Media, Inc. - P - close: 18.51 change: +0.73

Stop Loss: 20.05
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 2.8%
Entry on October 30 at $19.04
Listed on October 29, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 7.1 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/08/14: The stock market may be hitting new highs but Pandora just marked its third weekly loss in a row. Shares did see a big oversold bounce on Friday (+4.1%). We will adjust our stop loss down to $20.05.

Earlier Comments: October 29, 2014:
Pandora is in the services sector. The company provides streaming music over the Internet and through your mobile device. They have over 200 million registered users and over 76 million active users.

It has been a really rough year for shares of Pandora. The stock is down over 50% from its all-time high of $40.44 set in March this year. Traders have been selling the rallies for months. If you only looked at the profit numbers you might be surprised by Pandora's performance.

Pandora's most recent earnings report was October 23rd. They beat analysts' estimates with a profit of 9 cents per share. That's a +50% improvement from a year ago. Revenues were up +41.5% from a year ago to $239.6 million, which also surpassed analysts' estimates. Pandora said listener hours soared +25% to almost 5 billion hours in the third quarter versus a year ago. The company's guidance was actually somewhat bullish with Pandora guiding slightly above consensus estimates on both the top and bottom line.

Given this impressive growth from 2013 you might think the stock would be soaring. Unfortunately for Pandora shareholders the company is seeing growth actually slow down and that's due to significant competition.

The 4.99 billion listener hours last quarter may have been up from a year ago but it's down -1% from the second quarter. The company's active users came in at 76.5 million users in the third quarter. That's up +5.2% from a year ago but it's virtually flat versus the 76.4 million from the prior quarter.

The slowdown is likely a result of too much competition. There are a ton of streaming music services like Rdio, Deezer, Grooveshark, Xbox Music, Sony Music Unlimited, and Songza. Yet the major competitors for Pandora are probably Spotify, Amazon.com's Prime Music, Apple's iTunes radio, which will soon merge with Beats Music, and finally Google has their Google Play Music All Access service. If all the competition wasn't enough Pandora also has to contend with music labels constantly fighting to raise the royalties that Pandora has to pay.

There are plenty of bears in this name. The most recent data listed short interest at 13.2% of the 197.2 million share float. Given the stock's recent performance, the slowing growth, and rising competition, the bears should have the upper hand. The stock's performance has produced a bearish signal on the point & figure chart, which is forecasting a long-term target of $11.00.

Tonight we are suggesting bearish positions at the opening bell tomorrow morning. More conservative traders could wait for a new relative low under $18.90 instead. The next support level might be the $15.00 area.

- Suggested Positions -

Short P stock @ $19.04

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long 2015 Jan $19 PUT (P150117p19) entry $1.71

11/08/14 new stop @ 20.05
10/30/14 trade begins. P opens @ $19.04
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Twitter, Inc. - TWTR - close: $40.31 change: -0.53

Stop Loss: 43.05
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 1.4%
Entry on November 04 at $39.75
Listed on November 03, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 27.9 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/08/14: TWTR continues to underperform the broader market. Last week the stock did manage to hold support near the $40.00 level. Traders could be waiting to hear from TWTR at the company's analyst day, which is this Wednesday (November 12th).

There seems to be a growing chorus of criticism for TWTR's management so the analyst day could be a pivotal event. Will TWTR executives soothe Wall Street's concerns or exacerbate them on Wednesday? The reaction on Wednesday could see our trade stopped out or TWTR breaking down to new lows.

Earlier Comments: November 3, 2014:
TWTR is considered part of the technology sector. The company runs a micro-blogging, communication platform. Users can express themselves but they're limited to 140 characters. The platform is part of the social media industry, which constantly gets a lot of attention from Wall Street.

TWTR came public with its IPO about one year ago. The stock priced at $26.00 and shares ended their first day of trading (November 7, 2013) at $44.90. It has been a roller coaster ride for the stock price. TWTR almost hit $75.00 in December last year and then fell to $30 by May 2014. The company has seen incredible growth but even with the growth its valuations fuel a lot of critics. Their P/E ratio is negative. The stock is trading around 20 times its annual revenues and over 100 times next year's earnings.

The stock's most recent earnings report was October 28th and Wall Street was not happy with the results. Analysts were expecting a profit of $0.01 per share on revenues of $351.59 million. TWTR delivered $0.01 cent, matching estimates, and revenues soared +114.9% to $361 million in the quarter.

TWTR's advertising revenue grew +109% to $320 million from the same quarter a year ago. International revenues were up +176%. With all of this growth and the revenue beat, why did TWTR's stock crash on this report?

The reason is user growth. The company's user growth appears to be slowing down. TWTR's Monthly Active Users (MAUs) hit 284 million in the third quarter. That's an improvement of 13 million from the same quarter a year ago. Wall Street was expecting 285 million MAUs and the whisper number was around 290 million or higher.

The 284 million MAU number is a +4.8% growth rate from the same quarter a year ago. Yet a year ago MAUs were growing +6.4%. The prior quarter Q2 2014 MAUs were growing +5.9%. You can see the concern here. TWTR's valuations are based on extremely strong growth, which is it seeing in its ad revenues, but if users aren't growing then ad revenues will likely stall as well.

Management issued Q4 revenue guidance in the $440-450 million range versus consensus estimates around $448 million. This is another reason traders could have hit the sell button. At least five firms downgraded TWTR following these results.

The stock plunged from the high $40s to low $40s on this earnings report. There has been almost no oversold bounce and now shares are hitting new three-month lows near support at $40.00.

Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to open bearish positions at $39.75. I do want to caution readers that there was a rumor of an activist investors getting involved with TWTR but nothing has been confirmed yet. Should that that story prove to be true it could spark some short covering.

- Suggested Positions -

Short TWTR stock @ $39.75

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long DEC $40 PUT (TWTR141220P40) entry $2.69

11/04/14 triggered @ $39.75
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:



CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Natus Medical Inc. - BABY - close: 33.15 change: -0.74

Stop Loss: 33.45
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -4.1%
Entry on October 31 at $34.97
Listed on October 30, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 282 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/08/14: BABY had been consolidating sideways all week and not participating that much in the market's rally. We turned cautious on Thursday and raised the stop loss to $33.45. Friday saw shares break down under their 10-dma and hit our new stop loss before closing with a -2.1% decline.

- Suggested Positions -

Closed BABY stock @ $34.97 exit $33.45 (-4.1%)

11/07/14 stopped out
11/06/14 new stop @ 33.45
10/31/14 trade opened on gap higher at $34.97, suggested trigger was $34.35

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