Editor's Note:
The NASDAQ Composite and the small cap Russell 2000 index helped lead the market higher on Friday. The NASDAQ closed at a 15-year high. The Russell at an all-time high. A drop in the U.S. dollar fueled a bounce in commodities.

The S&P 500 is nearing potential resistance at its recent peak near 2,120. If the index reverses lower we want to try and protect ourselves. Tonight we have updated several stop losses.


Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Best Buy Co. Inc. - BBY - close: 40.79 change: -0.07

Stop Loss: 39.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +1.3%
Entry on March 06 at $40.25
Listed on March 04, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/21/15: The gap down in BBY was not profit taking. Shares began trading ex-dividend on Friday morning. Traders bought the dip and shares spent most of the day hovering near $41.00.

If you are looking for a new bullish entry point I would wait for a dip near $40.00. Our stop loss is currently at $39.85.

Trade Description: March 4, 2015:
BBY has got a bullish recipe brewing. The company has rising sales, rising earnings, rising dividends, and rising stock buybacks. The company launched a massive turnaround effort when they changed management in 2012. According to Fortune, BBY has "turned around its U.S. operations., shed assets abroad and trimmed expenses to help lift profitability."

If you're not familiar with BBY the company describes itself as "one of the world's largest consumer electronics retailers, offering expert service and unbeatable prices to the consumers who visit its websites and stores more than 1.5 billion times each year. In the United States, more than 70 percent of Americans are within 15 minutes of a Best Buy store. Additionally, the company operates businesses in Canada and Mexico. Altogether, Best Buy employs more than 125,000 people and earns annual revenues of more than $40 billion."

This week BBY has been making headlines thanks to its better than expected Q4 earnings results, which came out on March 3rd. Wall Street was expecting a profit of $1.35 a share on revenues of $14.33 billion. BBY said earnings hit $1.48 a share. That's a +23% increase from a year ago. Their unadjusted earnings were up +75% from a year ago. Q4 revenues were up +1.3% to $14.21 billion. BBY's U.S. same-store sales were up +2.8%. International was down -4% but their online sales surged +9.7%. Their U.S. same-store sales results are noteworthy because it's the second consecutive quarter of same-store sales growth for the first time in five years.

BBY's CEO and President Hubert Joly commented on his company's results saying,

"In the fourth quarter, our teams delivered positive comparable sales, improved profitability and continued progress in our Renew Blue transformation. This resulted in a 1.3% increase in revenue to $14.2 billion and a 23% increase in non-GAAP diluted EPS to $1.48 versus $1.20 last year, primarily driven by growth in the Domestic segment. A compelling merchandise assortment and strong multi-channel execution drove these better-than-expected results as we capitalized on the product cycles in large screen televisions and mobile phones. These two categories were the primary drivers of our year-over-year revenue growth, and more than offset weakness in the tablet category which was impacted by material industry declines."
Joly did warn that in fiscal 2016 BBY will "be facing industry and economic pressures on our business related to deflationary pricing and weak industry demand in certain product categories." However, investors didn't care. They didn't care about the revenue miss or the negative foreign currency headwinds. Everything was overshadowed by BBY's very shareholder friendly capital return initiatives.

The company said they are raising their normal dividend by +21% to 23 cents a share effectively immediately. They are also going to pay a special, one-time dividend of $0.51 a share. Plus they are re-starting their stock buyback program. Previously BBY had a $5 billion stock repurchase program but that halted it back in 2012 to work on their turnaround strategy. Management announced they plan to spend $1 billion on stock buybacks over the next three years.

Multiple analysts firms raised their price target on BBY following the company's earnings results and dividend news. Most of the new targets were in the $45-50 range.

Currently shares of BBY are trading just below key round-number resistance at the $40.00 mark. A breakout here could spark some short covering. The most recent data listed short interest a 10% of the 304 million share float. Tonight we're suggesting a trigger to launch bullish positions at $40.25.

- Suggested Positions -

Long BBY stock @ $40.25

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long MAY $40 CALL (BBY150515C40) entry $1.99

03/17/15 new stop 39.85
03/06/15 triggered @ $40.25
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


BroadSoft, Inc. - BSFT - close: 35.20 change: +0.38

Stop Loss: 33.45
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +0.0%
Entry on March 20 at $35.20
Listed on March 17, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 286 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/21/15: Our new trade on BSFT is open. The plan was to open bullish positions at $35.15 but shares saw an intraday gap higher at $35.20 early Friday morning. BSFT has been showing relative strength and shares are up eight days in a row.

We are going to try and reduce our risk by raising the stop loss up to $33.45.

Trade Description: March 18, 2015:
BSFT is in the technology sector. The stock is outperforming the broader market this year and it's up significantly from its 2014 lows.

According to the company, "BroadSoft is the leading provider of software and services that enable mobile, fixed-line and cable service providers to offer Unified Communications over their Internet Protocol networks. The Company's core communications platform enables the delivery of a range of enterprise and consumer calling, messaging and collaboration communication services, including private branch exchanges, video calling, text messaging and converged mobile and fixed-line services."

BSFT has delivered a stomach churning performance since its IPO back in 2010. You can review its performance on the long-term chart below. The stock got off to a slow start but then sprinted from about $9.00 in late 2010 to $55.00 less than six months later. Unfortunately, since the early 2011 peak shares have been nothing but a roller coaster ride of ups and downs (we're talking really, really ugly downs).

It would appear that the tone has changed for BSFT. The company has beaten Wall Street's earnings and revenue estimates the last three quarters in a row. The big rally in early November 2014 was a reaction to its earnings beat with revenues up +27% from a year ago. The prior quarter revenues grew +19%.

The stock rallied big again on February 25th with BSFT reporting Q4 earnings of $0.64 a share, beating estimates by seven cents. Revenues surged +26.5% to $65.8 million. Management offered earnings guidance that was relatively in-line with consensus estimates. However, their revenue guidance was above expectations for both the first quarter and fiscal year 2015. Don't let the in-line earnings guidance fool you. Wall Street is expecting +78% earnings growth this year. The rally off its 2014 lows has produced a long-term target of $51.00 on the point & figure chart.

BSFT has been showing relative strength the last couple of weeks. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to launch small bullish positions at $35.15. I suggest small positions because shares don't have a lot of volume and history would suggest the stock is prone to wild bouts of volatility.

*small positions to limit risk* - Suggested Positions -

Long BSFT stock @ $35.20

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long MAY $35 CALL (BSFT150515C35) entry $2.78

03/21/15 new stop @ 33.45
03/20/15 triggered at $35.20, suggested entry was $35.15
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Cabela's Inc. - CAB - close: 58.11 change: -0.06

Stop Loss: 56.65
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +1.3%
Entry on March 13 at $57.35
Listed on March 09, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/21/15: CAB managed to tag new five-month highs midday on Friday. Unfortunately shares were unable to hold those gains. If this dip continues I would expect CAB to retest its simple 10-dma near $57.00. We're going to try and reduce our risk by moving the stop loss to $56.65.

Trade Description: March 9, 2015:
Outdoor gear and hunting equipment retailer CAB has been misfiring the last few quarters. They have missed analysts estimates three out of the last four quarters but the stock could be mounting a turnaround.

If you're not familiar with the company, "Cabela's Incorporated, headquartered in Sidney, Nebraska, is a leading specialty retailer, and the world’s largest direct marketer, of hunting, fishing, camping and related outdoor merchandise. Since the Company’s founding in 1961, Cabela’s® has grown to become one of the most well-known outdoor recreation brands in the world, and has long been recognized as the World's Foremost Outfitter®. Through Cabela's growing number of retail stores and its well-established direct business, it offers a wide and distinctive selection of high-quality outdoor products at competitive prices while providing superior customer service. Cabela's also issues the Cabela's CLUB® Visa credit card, which serves as its primary customer loyalty rewards program.

The company has been struggling with slowing sales and disappointing comparable same-store sales growth. They're not the only one. Companies like Dick's Sporting goods have also noted that sales in their hunting category were slow last year.

CAB's most recent report was its 2014 Q4 announcement on February 12th. Earnings of $1.11 a share missed estimates by a wide margin. Revenues were up +7.2%, which met expectations at $1.27 billion. Management said they expect a "return to a low-double-digit growth rate in revenue and a high-single to low-double-digit growth rate in diluted earnings per share for full-year 2015 as compared to full-year 2014 non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $2.88."

The good news is that firearm sales appear to be stabilizing. After years of torrid sales during Obama's first term as president the pace of firearm sales slowed significantly. The latest data on background checks to buy a gun showed February 2015 to be the second strongest February on record. More than 1.28 million background checks were performed. That's up +1.3% from a year ago. December saw +7.5% surge in checks and January 2015 reported a +8.5% increase in background checks.

On March 3rd, 2015, gun maker Smith & Wesson (SWHC) just reported earnings that were significantly better than expected. SWHC management raised their guidance. That should bode well for CAB too.

Currently shares of CAB have bounced back toward resistance near $57.00 and its simple 200-dma. The stock appears to be breaking through resistance at its year-long trend of lower highs as well. If CAB can breakout the stock might see some short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at 16% of the 51.3 million share float. Currently CAB's point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting at $65.00 target.

Tonight I'm suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $57.35, which could be a new four-month high and a breakout past its January resistance.

- Suggested Positions -

Long CAB stock @ $57.35

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long JUN $60 CALL (CAB150619C60) entry $2.70

03/21/15 new stop @ 56.65
03/13/15 triggered @ 57.35
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Expeditors Intl. of Washington - EXPD - close: 49.27 chg: +0.40

Stop Loss: 48.45
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +1.5%
Entry on March 13 at $48.55
Listed on March 12, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/21/15: EXPD managed to end the week at a new multi-year high. We are adjusting our stop loss up to $48.45. More aggressive traders may want to leave their stop below short-term technical support at the 20-dma (currently near $48.00).

Trade Description: March 12, 2015:
EXPD is showing relative strength. The stock is up +8% in 2015 versus an S&P 500 that is virtually flat. Meanwhile the Dow Jones Transportation Average is down -1.4%.

EXPD is part of the services sector. According to the company, "Expeditors is a global logistics company headquartered in Seattle, Washington. The company employs trained professionals in 186 full-service offices and numerous satellite locations located on six continents linked into a seamless worldwide network through an integrated information management system. Services include the consolidation or forwarding of air and ocean freight, customs brokerage, vendor consolidation, cargo insurance, domestic time-definite transportation services, purchase order management, warehousing and distribution and customized logistics solutions."

The first half of 2014 was forgettable. EXPD delivered mediocre results with earnings a penny above or below estimates and revenues in-line with expectations. Business improved in the second half of last year. EXPD beat earnings estimates by four cents in the third quarter and by two cents in the fourth quarter. Revenues were up almost +11% in Q3 2014 and up +8.8% in the fourth quarter. Both were above Wall Street estimates.

Bradley Powell, Senior Vice President and CFO commented on the fourth quarter, "During the 2014 fourth quarter we saw strong year-over-year increases in both air and ocean freight volumes. Despite the 10 basis point reduction in overall net revenue margin, airfreight and ocean freight net revenues both managed double digit increases, up 10% and 11%, respectively, as overall net revenue increased 9%."

The stock shot higher on its Q4 results. Shares have been relatively resistant to any profit taking during the market's recent pullback. Traders bought the dip exactly where they should have - at prior resistance. Today's bounce looks like a bullish entry point. The stock's rally in 2015 has helped produce a buy signal on the point & figure chart that is forecasting at $66.00 target. Tonight I am suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $48.55.

- Suggested Positions -

Long EXPD stock @ $48.55

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long May $50 CALL (EXPD150515C50) entry $1.06

03/21/15 new stop @ 48.45
03/17/15 new stop @ 47.45
03/13/15 triggered @ 48.55
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Golar LNG Ltd - GLNG - close: 34.05 change: -0.55

Stop Loss: 32.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -3.4%
Entry on March 17 at $35.25
Listed on March 16, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
03/21/15: I'm not worried yet but the recent action in GLNG is disappointing. Thursday's profit taking snapped a six-day winning streak. The profit taking continued on Friday with a -1.58% decline. GLNG found support near $34.00 and its 10-dma on both Thursday and Friday. If shares breakdown under $34.00 it could be a big warning signal for us. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Let's see if GLNG can rebound.

Trade Description: March 16, 2015:
GLNG is part of the shipping industry. Unfortunately demand for shipping has been crushed thanks to a slowing global economy. The surging dollar doesn't help when it comes to commodity prices. Shares of GLNG have seen a significant sell-off with the stock down from $74 in September 2014 to less than $30 in January this year.

According to the company, "Golar is one of the world's largest independent owners and operators of LNG carriers with over 40 years of industry experience. Golar's innovation delivered the world's first Floating Storage and Regasification Units (FSRU) based on the conversion of existing LNG carriers. Golar's latest strategic move is to extend its business model further upstream by deploying its floating liquefaction technology (GoFLNG). The objective is to become the industry's leading integrated midstream LNG services provider, supporting resource owners, gas producers and gas consumers."

Management confessed that demand for charting LNG shipping will likely be weak in the first half of 2015. They expect a significant improvement in the second half of the year. What investors should note is that all the bad news over the last several months seems to be priced in. Cautious comments from management failed to send GLNG stock to new lows.

Earlier this month the stock soared (on March 5th) after GLNG announced it had signed a memorandum of understanding with Russian natural gas giant Rosneft. The company press release states that Rosneft is the third largest gas producer in Russia. Rosneft gas production reached 42.1 bcm in 2013, while the recoverable natural gas reserves topped 6.5 tcm. The company target is to reach 100 bcm of annual gas production by 2020. As investors it's worth noting that Rosneft is 75% owned by the Russian government. The two companies are going to be working together on some of Rosneft's natural gas assets. Shares of GLNG soared on this news.

GLNG did see some profit taking on the big move but investors are have started buying the dip. Now GLNG is poised to breakout past resistance at the $35.00 level. The point & figure chart looks very bullish with a triple-top breakout buy signal forecasting at $48.00 target.

Tonight I'm suggesting a trigger to launch small bullish positions at $35.25. We want to limit our position size to reduce risk. Energy-related names have been tough to trade lately.

*small positions to limit risk* - Suggested Positions -

Long GLNG stock @ $35.25

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long JUN $40 CALL (GLNG150619C40) entry $2.40

03/17/15 new stop @ 32.85
03/17/15 triggered @ 35.25
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Prestige Brands Holdings - PBH - close: 42.46 change: +0.62

Stop Loss: 40.35
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +0.3%
Entry on March 20 at $42.35
Listed on March 19, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 342 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/21/15: Right on cue shares of PBH continued to rally. The stock gapped open higher at $42.14 and tagged new record highs at $42.88 before paring its gains. Our suggested entry point to launch bullish positions was hit at $42.35. Tonight we are adjusting the stop loss up to $40.35.

Trade Description: March 19, 2015:
Shares of PBH are outperforming the broader market. The relative strength has lifted the stock to new all-time highs and a +20% gain in 2015.

PBH is part of the services sector. According to the company, PBH "markets and distributes brand name over-the-counter and household cleaning products throughout the U.S. and Canada, and in certain international markets. Core brands include Monistat® women's health products, Nix® lice treatment, Chloraseptic® sore throat treatments, Clear Eyes® eye care products, Compound W® wart treatments, The Doctor's® NightGuard® dental protector, the Little Remedies® and PediaCare® lines of pediatric over-the-counter products, Efferdent® denture care products, Luden's® throat drops, Dramamine® motion sickness treatment, BC® and Goody's® pain relievers, Beano® gas prevention, Debrox® earwax remover, and Gaviscon® antacid in Canada."

The company's most recent earnings report was noteworthy. Analysts were expecting a profit f $0.40 a share on revenues of $190.2 million. PBH delivered $0.48 a share, which is a +60% improvement from a year ago. Revenues were up +36.4% to $197.6 million, another beat. PBH's OTC products saw +37.2% sales growth in North America and +107.8% growth internationally.

Matthew M. Mannelly, President and CEO of PBH commented on his company's performance, "In light of our excellent year to date and third quarter results, we are updating our previously provided outlook for fiscal year 2015. We are tightening our expected adjusted EPS range from $1.75 to $1.85 per share to $1.82 to $1.85 per share, and anticipate revenue growth at the high end of our previously provided outlook of 15-18%. The update is driven by anticipated organic growth in the legacy business during the fourth quarter."

Wall Street analysts are forecasting 2015 Q1 (PBH's Q4) results to see +29% EPS growth and +30% revenue growth.

It's also worth noting that PBH is a potential buyout target. They have been targeted before. Back in 2012 Genomma Lab offered $834 million in cash but PBH rejected the offer, calling it too low.

The better than expected earnings in early February launched PBH above major resistance in the $37.00 area. Shares spent four weeks digesting those gains and now they're back in rally mode. The point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting at $54.00 target. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to launch bullish positions at $42.35.

- Suggested Positions -

Long PBH stock @ $42.35

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long JUL $45 CALL (PBH150717C45) entry $1.55

03/21/15 new stop @ 40.35
03/20/15 triggered @ 42.35
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Neurocrine Biosciences - NBIX - close: 43.60 change: -0.65

Stop Loss: 41.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +15.8%
Entry on February 17 at $37.65
Listed on February 14, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 937 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/21/15: NBIX has delivered an incredible rally from its January 2015 lows near $20.00 a share. The stock saw some profit taking on Friday with a -1.4% decline. We are going to try and protect our potential gains with a new stop at $41.85. More aggressive traders will want to consider keeping their stop loss below technical support at the 20-dma instead.

Earlier Comments: February 14, 2015:
Biotech stocks were big performers last year outpacing the broader market. It looks like that outperformance will continue in 2015 with the major biotech indices and ETFs already up +5% to +7% this year. One biotech that's really outperforming its peers in NBIX, with shares already up more than +60% in 2015.

According to the company's marketing materials, "Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. discovers and develops innovative and life-changing pharmaceuticals, in diseases with high unmet medical needs, through its novel R&D platform, focused on neurological and endocrine based diseases and disorders. The Company's two lead late-stage clinical programs are elagolix, a gonadotropin-releasing hormone antagonist for women's health that is partnered with AbbVie Inc., and a wholly owned vesicular monoamine transporter 2 inhibitor for the treatment of movement disorders. Neurocrine intends to maintain certain commercial rights to its VMAT2 inhibitor for evolution into a fully-integrated pharmaceutical company."

NBIX has two therapies planned for phase III trials in 2015. You can see NBIX's pipeline on this web page.

The drug making headlines for NBIX this year is Elagolix, a treatment for endometriosis. Shares of NBIX soared on January 8th after the company and its partner on this treatment, AbbVie, announced positive results for their latest Phase 3 trials. Endometriosis could affect up to 10% of all women in their reproductive years. That's a pretty big market. You can see why Wall Street is so excited about this news and sent shares of NBIX soaring.

Make no mistake, this is an aggressive, higher-risk trade. Biotech stocks can be volatile. The right or wrong headline can send the stock soaring or crashing. NBIX is already very, very overbought with a run from $20 to $37 since its early January lows. Yet that doesn't mean it won't keep running. Sometimes biotech stocks have a mind of their own. There is not any clear resistance. You have to go back more than ten years and you might find resistance in the $42.50-45.00 area. Should this rally continue NBIX could see more short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at 12% of the small 66 million share float.

I'm going to repeat myself. This is an aggressive play. NBIX does have options but the spreads are too wide to trade. The intraday bounce on Friday looks like a test of short-term support near $35.00. You can see on the intraday chart that NBIX has a very short-term pattern of lower highs. Therefore, we are suggesting a trigger to open small bullish positions at $37.65. If triggered we'll start with a stop loss at $34.90.

*small positions to limit risk* - Suggested Positions -

Long NBIX stock @ $37.65

03/21/15 new stop @ 41.85
03/17/15 new stop @ 40.65
03/03/15 new stop @ 38.45
03/02/15 new stop @ 35.75
02/17/15 after the close, announces a secondary offering
02/17/15 triggered @ 37.65
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Gentherm Inc. - THRM - close: 48.14 change: -0.51

Stop Loss: 46.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +1.4%
Entry on March 06 at $47.48
Listed on March 05, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 456 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/21/15: Hmm... THRM did not participate in the market's rally on Friday. That's disappointing following Thursday's bullish breakout from its sideways consolidation. We are going to turn more defensive here and raise the stop loss up to $46.85.

Trade Description: March 5, 2015:
I remember the first time I bought a car with heated seats. I vowed to never own another automobile without them. Considering how cold the last couple of winters have been I'm sure a lot of consumers feel the same way. One company that makes the technology behind heated seats and other products is Gentherm.

THRM is in the consumer goods sector. According to the company's marketing material, "Gentherm (THRM) is a global developer and marketer of innovative thermal management technologies for a broad range of heating and cooling and temperature control applications. Automotive products include actively heated and cooled seat systems and cup holders, heated and ventilated seat systems, thermal storage bins, heated automotive interior systems (including heated seats, steering wheels, armrests and other components), cable systems and other electronic devices. The Company's advanced technology team is developing more efficient materials for thermoelectric and systems for waste heat recovery and electrical power generation for the automotive market that may have far-reaching applications for consumer products as well as industrial and technology markets. Gentherm has more than 9,000 employees in facilities in the U.S., Germany, Mexico, China, Canada, Japan, England, Korea, Malta, Hungary and the Ukraine."

THRM has been consistently beating Wall Street's on both the top and bottom line the last four quarters in a row. The exception was their Q4 revenue number. They raised guidance twice last year. Their most recent report was 2014 Q4 earnings announced on February 24th. Earnings were $0.56 a share on revenues of $205.2 million. That beat estimates of $0.48. Revenues were just a hair under estimates of $207 million. Management said their "adjusted EBITDA for the 2014 fourth quarter was $35.7 million, up $10.0 million or 39 percent, compared with Adjusted EBITDA of $25.6 million for the 2013 fourth."

THRM's 2014 gross margins grew to 29.8 percent versus 26.4 percent in 2013. Last year saw THRM's revenues rise +23% over the prior year. Their net income more than doubled. Management expects 2015 to see revenues grow +10-15% above 2014 levels.

Last month saw shares of THRM breakthrough technical resistance at its simple 200-dma. It has also rallied past price resistance near the $44.00 level. Traders just bought the dip at its 10-dma and now THRM looks poised to make a run towards its 2014 highs near $52.00. Tonight we're suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $47.30.

- Suggested Positions -

Long THRM stock @ $47.48

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Jun $50 CALL (THRM150619C50) entry $2.98

03/21/15 new stop @ 46.85
03/06/15 triggered on gap higher at $47.48, trigger was $47.30
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Wells Fargo & Co - WFC - close: 56.01 change: +0.50

Stop Loss: 54.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -0.2%
Entry on March 18 at $56.15
Listed on March 17, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 15.8 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/21/15: Good news! Traders bought the dip on Friday morning and WFC recovered most of Thursday's decline. WFC is once again challenging resistance at the $56.00 level. Friday's intraday high was $56.21. Traders may want to see a rally past this level before initiating new positions. Tonight we are adjusting the stop loss to $54.85.

Trade Description: March 17, 2015:
Banks had a rough start to the year but one stock leading the pack is WFC. Shares of WFC are up about +2% in 2015 versus a virtually flat financial sector.

According to the company, "Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) is a nationwide, diversified, community-based financial services company with $1.7 trillion in assets. Founded in 1852 and headquartered in San Francisco, Wells Fargo provides banking, insurance, investments, mortgage, and consumer and commercial finance through more than 8,700 locations, 12,500 ATMs, and the internet (wellsfargo.com), and has offices in 36 countries to support customers who conduct business in the global economy. With approximately 265,000 team members, Wells Fargo serves one in three households in the United States. Wells Fargo & Company was ranked No. 29 on Fortune’s 2014 rankings of America’s largest corporations."

WFC is very shareholder friendly. Back in 2014 the company said they wanted to pay out 55% to 75% of their net income to shareholders, which was a +34% jump from the prior year. This year WFC's CFO John Shrewsberry said they would like to distribute 50% to 70% of net income through dividends and stock buy backs. The amount of money they can pay in dividends is regulated by the Federal Reserve but WFC has raised their dividend six times in the last five years.

The Fed's annual bank stress test is a big deal and this was just completed a week ago. WFC passed the Fed's very severe stress test. The bank has asked permission to raise their dividend +7% to $0.375 a share (up from $0.35). WFC's consistent dividend might be a reason the stock is one of Warren Buffet's biggest holdings in Berkshire Hathaway.

Some have suggested that WFC could be a way to play the improving U.S. economy and consumer spending. That is because WFC is the biggest residential lender and largest auto lender in America.

The stock's rally has produced a buy signal on the point & figure chart that is forecasting a long-term target of $74.00. Currently the stock is hovering just below resistance at the $56.00 level. We are suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $56.15.

- Suggested Positions -

Long WFC stock @ $56.15

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long MAY $55 CALL (WFC150515C55) entry $2.20

03/21/15 new stop @ 54.85
03/18/15 triggered @ 56.15
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:




BEARISH Play Updates

Albermarle Corp. - ALB - close: 52.25 change: +0.58

Stop Loss: 53.45
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +1.9%
Entry on March 12 at $53.25
Listed on March 11, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/21/15: The stock market's widespread bounce on Friday helped fuel a rebound in ALB and shares gained +1.1%. Fortunately the trend remains bearish with a consistent pattern of lower highs. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Trade Description: March 11, 2015:
There's a bear market in this specialty chemical stock. The company has a history of paying a dividend and they just raised their dividend for the 21st year in a row. Unfortunately, that's not drawing much investor attention. High-dividend stocks could become less attractive with the Federal Reserve poised to raise interest rates.

Officially the company describes itself as, "Albemarle Corporation, headquartered in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, is a premier specialty chemicals company with leading positions in attractive end markets around the world. With a broad customer reach and diverse end markets, Albemarle develops, manufactures and markets technologically advanced and high value added products, including lithium and lithium compounds, bromine and derivatives, catalysts and surface treatment chemistries used in a wide range of applications including consumer electronics, flame retardants, metal processing, plastics, contemporary and alternative transportation vehicles, refining, pharmaceuticals, agriculture, construction and custom chemistry services."

They are in the final stages of its acquisition of Rockwood Holdings. They announced the $6 billion deal last July and it's expected to close in the first quarter of 2015. Bulls will argue this deal is positive for ALB due to the expected demand for lithium batteries. Rockwood has one of the of the biggest lithium producing operations in North America. On a short-term basis we're not seeing any impact in the stock.

ALB most recent earnings report was January 28th. Wall Street was expecting ALB's Q4 results to be $1.02 a share on revenues of $637 million. The company disappointed with a profit of $0.99 as revenues dropped -6.4% to $598.5 million. Management offered lackluster guidance. Multiple analyst firms have downgraded the stock and started lowering their earnings estimates.

You can see the huge sell-off on the earnings report in late January. During the market's big rally in February ALB slowly climbed back to where it was trading just before the earnings announcement. Now ALB is rolling over again. This conforms to the stock's larger bearish trend (seen on the weekly chart). The point & figure chart is forecasting at $45.00 target.

Tonight I'm suggesting a trigger to open bearish positions at $53.25.

- Suggested Positions -

Short ALB stock @ $53.25

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long JUN $50 PUT (ALB150619P50) entry $1.75

03/19/15 new stop @ 53.45
03/17/15 new stop @ 54.65
03/12/15 triggered @ $53.25
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


3D Systems Corp. - DDD - close: 27.61 change: +0.12

Stop Loss: 28.35
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -2.6%
Entry on March 16 at $26.90
Listed on March 10, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/21/15: The S&P 500 snapped a three-week losing streak with a bounce this past week. DDD followed suit and ended a four-week losing streak with an oversold bounce. Thus far the bounce is failing at resistance near $28.00. However, if the broader market continues to rally it could pull DDD higher (essentially spark some short covering).

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Trade Description: March 10, 2015:
Expectations for DDD are still too high. The stock has been crushed from an early 2014 high near $96.00 a share down to $27.50. Even here, at multi-year lows, the stock has a P/E of 250.

The company describes itself as, "3D Systems provides the most advanced and comprehensive 3D digital design and fabrication solutions available today, including 3D printers, print materials and cloud-sourced custom parts. Its powerful ecosystem transforms entire industries by empowering professionals and consumers everywhere to bring their ideas to life using its vast material selection, including plastics, metals, ceramics and edibles. 3DS' leading personalized medicine capabilities save lives and include end-to-end simulation, training and planning, and printing of surgical instruments and devices for personalized surgery and patient specific medical and dental devices. Its democratized 3D digital design, fabrication and inspection products provide seamless interoperability and incorporate the latest immersive computing technologies. 3DS' products and services disrupt traditional methods, deliver improved results and empower its customers to manufacture the future now."

Last year was pretty tough for DDD. The company has delivered disappointing earnings and revenue growth. They issued an earnings warning back in October. DDD has been reporting +20% revenue growth the last couple of quarters but it's not enough. Management issued 2015 guidance that was in-line with analysts' estimates. Shares initially bounced because guidance wasn't worse than many had feared. However, currency headwinds are going to be an issue in 2015. A couple of analysts have slashed their price target on DDD's stock following the earnings report.

This time the bears might be right. Margins were hurt last year. The company is forecasting organic sales to improve in the second half of 2015. However, they are facing what will be major competition when Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) launches their commercial 3D printers in 2016. The most recent data listed short interest at 38% of the 105 million share float. That much short interest makes DDD a volatile stock to trade. We never know when something might spark a short squeeze. Traders may want to limit their risk by using options.

The stock's sell-off has produced a sell signal on the point & figure chart that is forecasting at $17.00 target. Currently DDD is hovering near support in the $27.50-28.00 region. A breakdown here could signal the next major leg lower. Tonight we're suggesting a trigger to open bearish positions at $26.90. Consider small positions to limit risk.

*small positions to limit risk* - Suggested Positions -

Short DDD stock @ $26.90

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long MAY $25 PUT (DDD150515P25) entry $1.56

03/17/15 new stop @ 28.35
03/16/15 triggered @ $26.90
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart: