Editor's Note:
The U.S. dollar sank on the disappointing March jobs number. This dollar weakness fueled a gain in crude oil. Oil's rally sparked widespread gains in the energy stocks.

ALLE and IMKTA both hit our bullish entry triggers.

Our plan was to exit the HOS trade this morning.


Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Allegion Plc. - ALLE - close: 61.65 change: +0.20

Stop Loss: 59.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -0.7%
Entry on April 06 at $62.10
Listed on March 30, 2015
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings (late April - early May)
Average Daily Volume = 674 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/06/15: ALLE rallied past resistance at $62.00 this morning. Shares hit our suggested entry point at $62.10. Unfortunately this strength didn't last and ALLE pared its gains. The intraday high was $62.16. I am suggesting a rally to $62.20 as our next entry point.

Trade Description: March 30, 2015:
It feels like the world is growing more dangerous. It was only a few weeks ago that the world was shocked by the terrorist shootings in Paris. It should be no surprise that demand for more security at our homes and places of work is growing.

ALLE provides security solutions. According to the company, "Allegion (ALLE) creates peace of mind by pioneering safety and security. As a $2 billion provider of security solutions for homes and businesses, Allegion employs more than 8,000 people and sells products in more than 120 countries across the world. Allegion has more than 25 global brands, including strategic brands CISA®, Interflex®,LCN®, Schlage® and Von Duprin®."

After a slow start last year ALLE's earnings have improved over the last couple of quarters. Their Q3 report last October showed earnings and revenues coming in above expectations.

They did it again with their Q4 earnings report, released on February 18th. Earnings rose +26.7% to $0.76 a share. Wall Street was only looking for $0.68. Revenues were up +5.5% to $573.5 million, above estimates.

ALLE management provided 2015 guidance. They expect revenues to rise +3% to +4% over last year. However, when you factor in currency headwinds and adjustments for their Venezuelan business, revenues could actually decline -3% to -4%. ALLE is forecasting earnings to grow +12% to +17% in 2015.

Investors took ALLE's cautious guidance in stride. There was a one-day pullback and investors quickly jumped in to buy the dip. A month later ALLE's stock was breaking out past resistance at the $60.00 level. Today ALLE has retested $60.00 as new support and just closed at new record highs. The point & figure chart is very bullish and forecasting a long-term target at $81.00. Tonight we're suggesting a trigger to launch bullish positions at $62.10. We will plan on exiting prior to earnings in very late April or early May.

- Suggested Positions -

Long ALLE stock @ $62.10

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long MAY $65 CALL (ALLE150515C65) entry $1.00

04/06/15 triggered @ 62.10
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Ingles Market, Inc. - IMKTA - close: 53.26 change: +1.28

Stop Loss: 49.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +1.7%
Entry on April 06 at $52.35
Listed on April 04, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 159 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/06/15: Our brand new trade on IMKTA is open. Shares continue to show relative strength and added another +2.4% today. Our suggested trigger to launch bullish positions was hit at $52.35. If you're looking for an entry point tonight I'd wait for a dip.

Trade Description: April 4, 2015:
Fifty years of sales growth. If you don't live in the South Eastern U.S. you may not be familiar with IMKTA. The company is in the services sector. They're part of the grocery store industry. Last year (2014) was the company's 50th consecutive year of sales growth.

Here is how the company describes itself: "Ingles Markets, Incorporated is a leading supermarket chain with operations in six southeastern states. Headquartered in Asheville, North Carolina, the Company operates 202 supermarkets. In conjunction with its supermarket operations, the Company operates neighborhood shopping centers, most of which contain an Ingles supermarket. The Company also owns a fluid dairy facility that supplies Company supermarkets and unaffiliated customers."

IMKTA reported their Q4 2014 results on December 8th. Quarterly revenues were up +1.7% but earnings per shares soared +16%. Revenues for the whole year hit $3.84 billion. Earnings for all of last year grew +15%.

The streak of earnings growth continued in the first quarter of 2015. IMKTA reported results on February 6th. Revenues were up +1.8%, above estimates. Earnings per share exploded with a +75% improvement over a year ago. Comparable sales were up +2.3% with their average transaction up +3.1%. Analysts are forecasting +20% earnings growth in 2015.

Technically the stock looks bullish and trading at all-time highs. The $50.00 area was round-number resistance but now that IMKTA has broken out the $50 mark should be new support. The point & figure chart is very bullish and forecasting a long-term target of $99.00.

I am concerned that IMKTA does not trade a lot of volume. It's average volume is only 159,000 shares a day. The big drop in January came out of nowhere and snapped a run of seven up weeks in a row. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $52.35. Keep positions small to limit risk.

*small positions* - Suggested Positions -

Long IMKTA stock @ $52.35

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long AUG $55 CALL (IMKTA150821C55) entry $3.50

04/06/15 triggered @ 52.35
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Prestige Brands Holdings - PBH - close: 43.59 change: +0.02

Stop Loss: 40.35
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +2.9%
Entry on March 20 at $42.35
Listed on March 19, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 342 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/06/15: It was a quiet day for shares of PBH. The stock traded sideways inside a 60-cent range.

More conservative traders may want to start raising their stop loss. If you're looking for a new entry point I suggest waiting for a dip.

Trade Description: March 19, 2015:
Shares of PBH are outperforming the broader market. The relative strength has lifted the stock to new all-time highs and a +20% gain in 2015.

PBH is part of the services sector. According to the company, PBH "markets and distributes brand name over-the-counter and household cleaning products throughout the U.S. and Canada, and in certain international markets. Core brands include Monistat® women's health products, Nix® lice treatment, Chloraseptic® sore throat treatments, Clear Eyes® eye care products, Compound W® wart treatments, The Doctor's® NightGuard® dental protector, the Little Remedies® and PediaCare® lines of pediatric over-the-counter products, Efferdent® denture care products, Luden's® throat drops, Dramamine® motion sickness treatment, BC® and Goody's® pain relievers, Beano® gas prevention, Debrox® earwax remover, and Gaviscon® antacid in Canada."

The company's most recent earnings report was noteworthy. Analysts were expecting a profit f $0.40 a share on revenues of $190.2 million. PBH delivered $0.48 a share, which is a +60% improvement from a year ago. Revenues were up +36.4% to $197.6 million, another beat. PBH's OTC products saw +37.2% sales growth in North America and +107.8% growth internationally.

Matthew M. Mannelly, President and CEO of PBH commented on his company's performance, "In light of our excellent year to date and third quarter results, we are updating our previously provided outlook for fiscal year 2015. We are tightening our expected adjusted EPS range from $1.75 to $1.85 per share to $1.82 to $1.85 per share, and anticipate revenue growth at the high end of our previously provided outlook of 15-18%. The update is driven by anticipated organic growth in the legacy business during the fourth quarter."

Wall Street analysts are forecasting 2015 Q1 (PBH's Q4) results to see +29% EPS growth and +30% revenue growth.

It's also worth noting that PBH is a potential buyout target. They have been targeted before. Back in 2012 Genomma Lab offered $834 million in cash but PBH rejected the offer, calling it too low.

The better than expected earnings in early February launched PBH above major resistance in the $37.00 area. Shares spent four weeks digesting those gains and now they're back in rally mode. The point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting at $54.00 target. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to launch bullish positions at $42.35.

- Suggested Positions -

Long PBH stock @ $42.35

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long JUL $45 CALL (PBH150717C45) entry $1.55

03/21/15 new stop @ 40.35
03/20/15 triggered @ 42.35
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Providence Service Corp. - PRSC - close: 52.83 change: +0.20

Stop Loss: 49.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +0.6%
Entry on March 27 at $52.50
Listed on March 26, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 136 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/06/15: PRSC bounced off its simple 10-dma but only managed a +0.38% gain. The NASDAQ produced a +0.6% advance. The path of least resistance seems to be higher but I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Trade Description: March 26, 2015:
PRSC is a small cap momentum stock. Shares are outperforming the broader market with a +40% gain in 2015. The stock has done a pretty good job ignoring the market's recent weakness.

PRSC is in the healthcare sector. According to their marketing materials, "Providence is a Tucson, Arizona-based company that provides and manages government sponsored human services, innovative global employment services, in-home health assessment and care management services, and non-emergency transportation services."

"Providence is unique in that it provides and manages its human services primarily in the client's own home or in community based settings, rather than in hospitals or treatment facilities and provides its non-emergency transportation services clients through local transportation providers rather than an owned fleet of vehicles. The Company provides a range of services through its direct entities to approximately 57,400 and 232,000 human services and workforce development services clients, respectively, with approximately 20.7 million individuals eligible to receive the Company's non-emergency transportation services. Its workforce development services include nearly 180 delivery sites spanning 10 countries and its health assessments are performed by over 700 nurse practitioners in 33 states."

The company is not afraid of acquisitions. In the last year they have purchased Matrix Medical Network and Ingeus.

PRSC's most recent quarterly report was March 16th. Analysts were expecting Q4 earnings of $0.29 a share on revenues of $416 million. PRSC delivered $0.45 a share, which is up +87.5% from a year ago. Q4 revenues were up +63.8% to $453.6 million, significantly above estimates. If you exclude the recent acquisitions PRSC's Q4 revenues were up +21.4%. The company's full-year 2014 sales hit $1.5 billion, up +32% from the prior year.

The stock rallied on this better than expected earnings report. The $48-50 area was significant resistance and PRSC has broken out above this zone. As previously mentioned the stock has been able to resist the market's recent sell-off. The point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting a long-term target of $68.00.

Tonight PRSC looks like it's about to break out from its recent consolidation in the $50-52 area. Last week's highs are around $52.30. We are suggesting a trigger to open small bullish positions at $52.50. I'm suggesting small positions because PRSC does not trade a lot of volume and we want to limit our risk.

*use small positions to limit risk* - Suggested Positions -

Long PRSC stock @ $52.50

03/27/15 triggered @ 52.50


Steel Dynamics Inc. - STLD - close: 20.03 change: -0.40

Stop Loss: 19.20
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -3.8%
Entry on March 24 at $20.81
Listed on March 21, 2015
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings on April 20th
Average Daily Volume = 3.6 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/06/15: The volatility in STLD continues. After big gains last Thursday the stock reversed today with a -1.98% decline. Shares remain just below technical resistance at its 200-dma (near 20.60) and its recent highs near $21.00.

No new positions at this time.

Trade Description: March 21, 2015:
The bad news in the steel industry might be priced in and some are forecasting another turnaround in the second half of 2015. STLD looks like a bullish candidate as shares are outperforming its peers: U.S. Steel (X), Nucor (NUE), and AK Steel (AKS).

STLD is in the basic materials sector. The company describes itself as "Steel Dynamics, Inc. is one of the largest domestic steel producers and metals recyclers in the United States based on estimated annual steelmaking and metals recycling capability, with annual sales of $8.8 billion in 2014, over 7,700 employees, and manufacturing facilities primarily located throughout the United States (including six steel mills, eight steel coating facilities, two iron production facilities, over 90 metals recycling locations and six steel fabrication plants)."

This past week had a lot of bad news for the steel industry. Three companies issued bearish earnings guidance. STLD, NUE, and AKS all lowered their forecasts. CNBC suggested this industry is on the front lines of the currency war. All three companies blamed a surge in steel imports for hurting results. The rising U.S. dollar makes foreign products cheaper and steel imports into the U.S. rose +38% in 2014. Combine that with a glut of steel from domestic producers and both sales and margins have been hammered lower. The price of rolled steel is already down -20% in 2015. Many analysts are forecasting another tough year for the industry.

On March 18th, 2014, STLD lowered its Q1 guidance into the $0.12-0.16 range compared to Wall Street's estimate of $0.23. This also compares to $0.17 a year ago and $0.40 in the fourth quarter. However, the stock rallied. In addition to its lowered guidance the company offered a positive outlook for the second half of 2015.

Here's an excerpt from the company's press release on March 18th:

"During the first quarter of 2015, two important industry developments occurred:

− Domestic steel product pricing declined to levels that are now globally competitive, which the company believes will result in reduced steel import levels beginning in the second quarter 2015. Despite continued solid domestic steel consumption, product pricing decreased meaningfully due to delayed customer orders caused by the volatility in scrap prices and inventory buildup related to excessive fourth quarter 2014 steel imports. The company believes the surplus inventory can be right-sized in the April and May 2015 timeframe, which coupled with continued demand, should result in increased domestic steel mill utilization.

− Ferrous scrap pricing declined between 25% and 30% during February, which the company believes will benefit metal margin. Ferrous scrap pricing disconnected from iron ore pricing during 2014, as iron ore prices declined dramatically, while scrap prices remained relatively unchanged. Historically these commodities are highly correlated; therefore, a sharp decline in scrap prices was not unexpected.

The company believes these events, coupled with continued strength in domestic steel consumption from the automotive, manufacturing and construction sectors, should support a stronger second quarter, and second half 2015, based on the expectation of reduced domestic steel import levels, reduced raw material costs, and increased orders as customer inventory levels decline. Historically, the construction industry has been the largest single domestic steel consuming sector. The construction market grew during 2014, improving meaningfully from the lows experienced in 2009 and 2010. Despite the first quarter of each year being historically weaker for the construction industry due to seasonality, the company's fabrication operations are expected to achieve solid first quarter 2015 financial results. These results could approach those achieved in the third quarter 2014, which is traditionally the strongest construction quarter of a calendar year. The company believes this is evidence of the continued growth in non-residential construction.

Shares of STLD surged on this outlook and shares are now hovering just below technical resistance at its 200-dma. A breakout here could signal the next leg higher. Currently the point & figure chart is still bearish but a move above $21.00 would generate a new buy signal. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $20.75.

FYI: The stock will begin trading ex-dividend on March 27th. The quarterly cash dividend should be $0.1375 a share.

- Suggested Positions -

Long STLD stock @ $20.81

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long MAY $20 CALL (STLD150515C20) entry $1.80

03/24/15 triggered on gap higher at $20.81, trigger was $20.75
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Vipshop Holdings - VIPS - close: 29.22 change: +0.11

Stop Loss: 27.45
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Entry on April -- at $---.--
Listed on April 01, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks (option traders, exit prior to expiration)
Average Daily Volume = 6.3 million
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
04/06/15: VIPS managed a small rebound off short-term technical support at its rising 10-dma. I don't see any changes from my recent comments. We are on the sidelines waiting for a breakout past $30.00. Our suggested entry point is $30.15.

Trade Description: April 1, 2015:
The main Chinese stock market has broken out to multi-year highs. This has provided fertile ground for shares of VIPS to grow. The company is an online retailer that specializes in flash sales of female-oriented products.

According to the company, "Vipshop Holdings Limited is China's leading online discount retailer for brands. Vipshop offers high quality and popular branded products to consumers throughout China at a significant discount to retail prices. Since it was founded in August 2008, the Company has rapidly built a sizeable and growing base of customers and brand partners."

Earnings have been strong. Looking at the last four quarterly report VIPS has beaten Wall Street estimates and raised guidance four quarters in a row. We're talking triple-digit growth for earnings and revenues.

VIPS' most recent report was its Q4 results on February 17th. Earnings were 12 cents a share, which was actually two cents below expectations. However, revenues soared +109% to $1.36 billion. Gross margins improved from 24.5% to 24.9%. Active customers grew +114% to 12.2 million (plenty of room to grow).

In their earnings press release Mr. Donghao Yang, chief financial officer of Vipshop, commented, "We are very proud of our fourth quarter financial results, which exceeded our prior expectations. Our progress in mobile, market expansion, along with our long-standing commitment to customers enabled us to further boost both the total net revenue and the net income attributable to our shareholders. During the fourth quarter of 2014, the mobile contribution of our platform reached approximately 66% of our gross merchandise volume. Looking ahead, we are firmly confident that by executing our growth strategies and further investing judiciously in fulfillment, technology and talent, we will be able to further fortify our position as the leading online discount retailer in China and continue delivering a satisfying shopping experience to our growing base of customers."

Management issued bullish guidance again. They see 2015 Q1 revenues in the $1.25-1.30 billion range, which suggest +78% to +85% growth from a year ago. Analysts estimates were at $1.21 billion. You can see how the stock reacted to the news and optimistic guidance.

Chinese stocks got another pop recently when a Chinese official suggested their government might provide even more stimulus. Here's a quote from a recent Bloomberg article, "China has room to act with both interest rates and 'quantitative' measures, People's Bank of China chief Zhou Xiaochuan said in remarks at the Boao Forum for Asia, an annual conference on the southern Chinese island of Hainan. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the PBOC will lower both benchmark lending rates and banks’ required reserve ratios, adding to cuts made in recent months." Link to the Bloomberg article.

Technically shares of VIPS have broken out past all of its major resistance levels and now it's flirting with a breakout past round-number resistance at $30.00. The point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting at $38.50 target. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to launch bullish positions at $30.15.

Trigger @ $30.15

- Suggested Positions -

Buy VIPS stock @ (trigger)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Buy the MAY $30 CALL (VIPS150515C30)
Entry disclaimer: To avoid an unfavorable entry point, we will not launch a new play if the stock gaps open more than $1.00 past our suggested entry point.

Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Web.com Group, Inc. - WWWW - close: 19.21 change: +0.23

Stop Loss: 18.45
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +1.1%
Entry on March 30 at $19.00
Listed on March 28, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 533 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/06/15: WWWW also bounced off technical support at its 10-dma. Shares managed to outperform the broader market with a +1.2% gain. I'm still worried about potential resistance at $20.00 and its simple 200-dma, now at $19.83.

No new positions at this time.

Trade Description: March 28, 2015:
WWWW is a small cap technology company. After a -60% correction from its 2014 highs it looks like the worst might be behind it.

If you're not familiar with WWW here's a brief description, "Web.com Group, Inc. (WWWW) provides a full range of Internet services to small businesses to help them compete and succeed online. Web.com is owner of several global domain registrars and further meets the needs of small businesses anywhere along their lifecycle with affordable, subscription-based solutions including website design and management, search engine optimization, online marketing campaigns, local sales leads, social media, mobile products, eCommerce solutions and call center services."

On the daily chart you can see the big gap down in November 2014. That was a reaction to the company's lowered guidance. The stock appears to have produced a bullish double bottom with its lows in November and January.

Shares surged in mid February with is Q4 earnings results. WWWW beat analysts' estimates on both the top and bottom line. Revenues for the full year were up +14%.

February was also noteworthy for WWWW agreeing to give an activist investor fund two seats on the Board of Directors. Okumus Fund Management is now the largest shareholder in WWWW with almost 15% of its outstanding shares.

Shares of WWWW have been building on a new bullish trend of higher lows and managed to ignore most of the market's sell-off this past week. The point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting a target of $23.00.

If WWWW continues higher it could spark some short covering with the most recent data listing short interest at more than 10% of the 36.5 million share float.

Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $18.95 with an initial stop loss at $17.85. I would start with small positions. The $20.00 level and the 200-dma (also nearing $20) could both be overhead resistance.

- Suggested Positions -

Long WWWW stock @ $19.00

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long MAY $20 CALL (WWWW150515C20) entry $1.30

04/01/15 new stop @ 18.45
03/30/15 triggered on gap open at $19.00, suggested entry was $18.95
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike




BEARISH Play Updates


None. We do not have any active bearish trades.



CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Hornbeck Offshore Services, Inc. - HOS - close: 20.88 change: +1.53

Stop Loss: 20.55
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -7.6%
Entry on March 24 at $18.20
Listed on March 21, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 851 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/06/15: The U.S. dollar dropped on the March jobs number. This dollar weakness fueled a big bounce in crude oil. The oil rally sparked a widespread rally in energy stocks. Shares of HOS gapped open higher at $19.59 and then surged to a +7.9% gain.

Thankfully we had already decided in the weekend newsletter to exit this trade at the opening bell.

- Suggested Positions -

Short HOS stock @ $18.20 exit $19.59 (-7.6%)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

JUN $17 PUT (HOS150619P17) entry $1.50 exit $0.65 (-56.7%)

04/06/15 planned exit at the open
04/04/15 prepare to exit positions on Monday, April 6th.
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart: