Editor's Note:
The U.S. market delivered a very widespread bounce on Friday. Unfortunately the small caps underperformed. The Russell 2000 index only rose +0.6% versus the S&P 500's +1.0% and the NADSAQ's +1.29% gains.

SLH hit our stop loss. We want to exit our TSRA trade on Monday at the closing bell.


Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

CDW Corp. - CDW - close: 38.67 change: +0.35

Stop Loss: 37.40
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: +0.1%
Entry on April 13 at $38.65
Listed on April 09, 2015
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings on May 7th
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/02/15: After slowly drifting lower last week shares of CDW look ready to resume its up trend. Let's hope it hurries. We only have a few days left. CDW will report earnings on May 7th and we plan to exit prior to their announcement.

No new positions at this time.

Trade Description: April 9, 2015:
Traders have been consistently buying the dips in information technology stock CDW. Now the stock is poised to breakout to new highs.

The company offers a broad range of hardware, software and integrated IT solutions to its clients. These include mobility, security, cloud computing, virtualization, data center optimization, and more.

Their website describes the company as "CDW is a leading provider of integrated information technology solutions in the U.S. and Canada. We help our 250,000 small, medium and large business, government, education and healthcare customers by delivering critical solutions to their increasingly complex IT needs. A Fortune 500 company, CDW was founded in 1984 and employs more than 7,200 coworkers. In 2014, the company generated net sales of more than $12.0 billion."

Earnings last year were healthy. CDW has consistently beaten Wall Street's earnings and revenue estimates for the last four quarters in a row. Revenues have been showing double-digit growth for the last year. Their most recent report was February 10th when CDW delivered its Q4 results. Analysts were expecting a profit of $0.53 a share on revenues of $2.95 billion. CDW reported $0.59 a share with revenues up +12.4% to $3.05 billion.

Analysts seem optimistic on CDW. Barclays has listed CDW as one of its top picks and noted that the company has very little exposure to Europe or Asia so the strong dollar shouldn't hurt it that bad. Another analyst, with RBC Capital Markets, believes that any softness in the consumer market will be overshadowed by strength in the enterprise market.

Technically the bullish trend of higher lows in CDW has been coiling more tightly. Now, with the stock up four days in a row, CDW is on the verge of breaking through resistance in the $38.00-38.50 area. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to launch bullish positions at $38.65.

- Suggested Positions -

Long CDW stock @ $38.65

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long MAY $40 CALL (CDW150515C40) entry $0.90

05/02/15 plan on exiting prior to earnings on May 7th
04/29/15 new stop @ 37.40
04/13/15 triggered @ 38.65
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Canadian Solar Inc. - CSIQ - close: 36.26 change: +0.86

Stop Loss: 34.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: -2.1%
Entry on April 28 at $37.05
Listed on April 23, 2015
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings on May 7th
Average Daily Volume = 2.7 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/02/15: CSIQ recovered about half of Thursday's decline with its +2.4% bounce on Friday. Unfortunately we are running out of time. CSIQ has announced they will report earnings on May 7th. We do not want to hold over the report. That only gives us a few more days. Plan on exiting before Thursday.

No new positions at this time.

Trade Description: April 23, 2015:
The boom and bust trends in the solar energy industry have been severe. A few years ago there was a supply glut and prices on solar panels plunged by 2/3rds. Investors were fleeing the solar stocks and shares of CSIQ sank toward $2.00 a share. It's a different story today.

China has a HUGE air pollution problem. The country wants to move away from coal-fired energy. That's why China plans to build out 100 gigawatts of solar energy by 2020. India is in a similar bind. They also plan to build out 100 gigawatts of solar energy by 2022. These two countries alone will account for more solar energy production in the next several years than all previous years combined.

China recently announced they had completed 5.04GW of solar capacity in the first quarter of 2015. That puts the country on schedule to meet their 2015 goal of 17.8GW in new solar production.

One company that should benefit from this global build out of solar energy is CSIQ. They are in the technology sector and considered part of the semiconductor industry. According to the company, "Founded in 2001 in Ontario, Canada, Canadian Solar is one of the world's largest and foremost solar power companies. As a leading manufacturer of solar photovoltaic modules and provider of solar energy solutions, Canadian Solar has an industry leading and geographically diversified pipeline of utility-scale solar power projects as well as a track record of successful solar deployment boasting over 9 GW of premium quality modules installed in over 70 countries during the past decade. Canadian Solar is committed to providing high-quality solar products and solar energy solutions to customers around the world."

Their most recent earnings report was March 5th. CSIQ reported Q4 results of $1.28 per share. That missed analysts' estimates. However, revenues soared +84% to $956.2 million, which was above expectations. CSIQ full-year 2014 results saw a record $239 million in earnings with revenues hitting $2.96 billion. They shipped 3.1 gigawatts worth of solar panels. This year CSIQ expects to ship 4.3GW of panels, a +39% improvement.

CSIQ raised their 2015 Q1 guidance above Wall Street estimates, which helps explain the spike in the stock price. Currently the company's full-year guidance is still below street estimates. In spite of this divergence between forecast and analysts' estimates Wall Street is still bullish. All ten of the analysts who cover the stock have a buy rating on CSIQ. The average 12-month price target is near $46.00. The point & figure chart is more optimistic and currently forecasting a long-term target of $66.50.

Technically shares of CSIQ have been building on a bullish trend of higher lows. They're also appear to be breaking out past resistance in the $36.00 area. Further gains could spark some short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at almost 10% of the 41.2 million share float. Tonight I am suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $37.05. This will likely be a two or three week trade. CSIQ will report earnings in mid May and we'll plan on exiting prior to the announcement.

- Suggested Positions -

Long CSIQ stock @ $37.05

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long MAY $37 CALL (CSIQ150515C37) entry $2.05

05/02/15 plan on exiting prior to earnings on May 7th
04/28/15 triggered @ 37.05
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Nucor Corp. - NUE - close: 49.00 change: +0.14

Stop Loss: 47.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: Unopened
Entry on April -- at $---.--
Listed on April 28, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
05/02/15: NUE underperformed the broader market on Friday. Shares only gained +0.28%. On the plus side traders did buy the dip intraday and NUE looks poised to rally on Monday. We are waiting on a breakout past resistance. Our suggested entry point is $50.50.

Trade Description: April 28, 2015:
NUE's management is expecting steel prices to stabilize by the end of the year and that has provide hope for investors. The industry is still struggling with a "flood" of imports.

NUE is in the basic materials sector. According to the company, "Nucor and its affiliates are manufacturers of steel products, with operating facilities primarily in the U.S. and Canada. Products produced include: carbon and alloy steel -- in bars, beams, sheet and plate; steel piling; steel joists and joist girders; steel deck; fabricated concrete reinforcing steel; cold finished steel; steel fasteners; metal building systems; steel grating and expanded metal; and wire and wire mesh. Nucor, through The David J. Joseph Company, also brokers ferrous and nonferrous metals, pig iron and HBI/DRI; supplies ferro-alloys; and processes ferrous and nonferrous scrap. Nucor is North America's largest recycler."

Their 2015 Q1 results were hurt by a -5% drop in average selling price of steel. Wall Street was expecting earnings of $0.14 a share on revenues of $4.66 billion. NUE delivered $0.21, which was a -39% drop from a year ago, but significantly above its mid-March guidance in the $0.10-0.15 range. Revenues were down -14% to $4.4 billion.

NUE management commented on its quarter, "This lower performance is primarily due to lower selling prices and margins resulting from the exceptionally high level of steel imports flooding the domestic market. It is estimated that imports accounted for 33% of the finished steel market in the first quarter of 2015. Import levels in February and March were lower than the peak in January, but remain at the exceptionally high levels experienced during most of 2014. We anticipate selling prices to remain under pressure as the flood of imports continues in the second quarter of 2015. Global overcapacity built by foreign, state-owned enterprises continues to be a significant risk factor to our business."

The stock actually rallied on its earnings report thanks to somewhat optimistic guidance. The company said the automotive market remains strong. They continue to see improving demand in the nonresidential construction markets. NUE did note that the energy market is still troubled. The drop in crude oil and the decline in active rigs has cut demand for tubular goods products (drilling equipment), which has caused a glut of inventory in the sector.

NUE shared the following outlook, "Earnings in the second quarter of 2015 are expected to be somewhat improved from the first quarter of 2015. Although margins in the steel mills segment are expected to improve, they will remain under pressure during the second quarter of 2015 as selling prices have not yet fully stabilized and imports remain at exceptionally high levels. This pricing pressure is expected to mitigate the benefits of lower average raw materials costs in the second quarter. We expect much better performance in the downstream products segment in the second quarter of 2015. The performance of the raw materials segment is expected to decrease in the second quarter of 2015 due to a planned one month outage at our DRI facility in Trinidad. We anticipate an operating loss similar to the first quarter of 2015 at Nucor Steel Louisiana, which, due to the extended length of the time the facility was not operating, will work through higher cost iron ore inventory that was purchased in 2014. Performance in the second half of 2015 is expected to further improve on the strength of continuing improvement in nonresidential construction and its impact on our downstream products businesses and steel mills. Additionally, steel pricing is expected to stabilize and rebound as service center destocking runs its course."

It would appear that the market has priced in the industry's trouble with imports. Now investors are looking ahead toward improvement later this year. The stock has been consolidating sideways in the $46-49 range for several weeks. Shares rallied on its earnings report and now it's on the verge of breaking out from its trading range. The $50.00 level is round-number resistance plus it's strengthened by technical resistance with the simple 200-dma. A breakout past this area would be very bullish. Tonight we're suggesting a trigger to launch bullish positions at $50.50.

Trigger @ $50.50

- Suggested Positions -

Buy NUE stock @ $50.50

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Buy the JUL $50 CALL (NUE150717C50)

Entry disclaimer: To avoid an unfavorable entry point, we will not launch a new play if the stock gaps open more than $1.00 past our suggested entry point.

Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:




BEARISH Play Updates

OvaScience, Inc. - OVAS - close: 25.32 change: +0.58

Stop Loss: 29.45
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: + 8.4%
Entry on April 28 at $27.65
Listed on April 27, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 725 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/02/15: The sell-off in OVAS accelerated last week. The stock is now down six weeks in a row. OVAS ended the week near potential round-number support at $25.00. I am not suggesting new positions. More conservative traders may want to lower their stop loss.

Trade Description: April 27, 2015:
A report published by Allied Market Research suggested the global in-vitro fertilization (IVF) market was about $9 billion in 2012. Demand is expected to grow the market to more than $21 billion by 2020. OVAS believes their AUGMENT treatment is a huge step in boosting a woman's ability to get pregnant.

Here's a brief description of the company, "OvaScience (OVAS) is a global fertility company dedicated to improving treatment options for women around the world. OvaScience is discovering, developing and commercializing new fertility treatments because we believe women deserve more options. Each OvaScience treatment is based on the Company’s proprietary technology platform that leverages the breakthrough discovery of egg precursor (EggPCSM) cells – immature egg cells found inside the protective ovarian lining. The AUGMENTSM treatment, a fertility option specifically designed to improve egg health, is available in certain IVF clinics in select international regions outside of the United States. OvaScience is developing the OvaPrimeSM treatment, which could increase a woman's egg reserve, and the OvaTureSM treatment, a potential next-generation IVF treatment that could help a woman produce healthy, young, fertilizable eggs without hormone injections."

Excitement over the company's prospects helped drive the stock from less than $10 in August 2014 to an all-time high of $55 in late March 2015. Unfortunately, the stock has reversed lower as the market tries to decipher the data on OVAS' progress. The FDA has prevented OVAS' treatment in the U.S. Critics complain that OVAS has not published any animal studies. There is concern that the procedure might endanger the child. Thus far the handful of tests done outside the U.S. look more like experiments than clinical trials.

Investors have decided to shoot first and ask questions later. That explains the sudden and sharp reversal lower in OVAS' stock. It's not just traders who have turned cautious. Zacks noted that multiple analysts have reduced their estimates on the company.

Technically OVAS is in a bear market with a -47% drop from its closing high. The point & figure chart is bearish with a long-term target at $7.00. The oversold bounce in early April failed and now OVAS is about to breakdown below technical support at its 200-dma. The next stop could be $20.00 if OVAS does close below support near $28.00.

Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to launch small bearish positions at $27.65. We want to limit our position size because this is a high-risk, more aggressive trade. Biotech stocks are normally risky since we never know when the next headline might send the stock soaring or crashing. Traders may want to use options to limit their risk.

- Suggested Positions -

Short OVAS stock @ $27.65

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long JUN $25 PUT (OVAS150619P25) entry $2.95

04/29/15 new stop @ 29.45
04/28/15 triggered @ 27.65
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Tessera Technologies Inc. - TSRA - close: 37.08 change: +0.97

Stop Loss: 38.05
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: +0.9%
Entry on April 17 at $37.40
Listed on April 16, 2015
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings on May 5th
Average Daily Volume = 585 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/02/15: Semiconductor stocks were big winners on Friday. The SOX index surged +2.79%. TSRA tried to keep pace and bounced with a +2.68% gain. This erased most of Thursday's decline.

While the path of least resistance appears to be lower we are out of time. TSRA is scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday, May 5th. We need to exit on Monday, at the closing bell.

Please note I'm lowering the stop loss to $38.05 just in case the bounce continues.

- Suggested Positions -

Short TSRA stock @ $37.40

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long MAY $37 PUT (TSRA150515P37) entry $1.55

05/02/15 new stop @ 38.05
05/02/15 prepare to exit on Monday at the closing bell
04/29/15 new stop @ 38.45
04/17/15 triggered @ 37.40
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:



CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Solera Holdings - SLH - close: 48.52 change: -0.38

Stop Loss: 49.45
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: -0.3%
Entry on April 27 at $49.30
Listed on April 20, 2015
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings on May 6th
Average Daily Volume = 536 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/02/15: It looks like the market's big bounce on Friday sparked some short covering in SLH. Shares sprinted higher at the open and rallied toward round-number resistance at $50.00. Our stop was hit at $49.45 pretty early on Friday morning.

- Suggested Positions -

Short SLH stock @ $49.30 exit $49.45 (-0.3%)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

JUN $50 PUT (SLH150619P50) entry $2.85 exit $2.25 (-21.1%)

04/29/15 new stop @ 49.45
04/27/15 triggered on gap down at $49.30, trigger was $49.40
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart: