Editor's Note:
Last week the S&P 500 broke out to new all-time highs. Meanwhile the small cap Russell 2000 was stuck under its 50-dma. All the major indices rallied today and the Russell pushed through this technical resistance.

Our SBUX trade was triggered today.


Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Altisource Portfolio Solutions - ASPS - close: 30.37 chg: +0.11

Stop Loss: 27.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: -2.3%
Entry on May 11 at $31.10
Listed on May 09, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 777 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/18/15: It was another quiet day for ASPS. Shares have been hovering near the $30.00 level the last few days.

I had been suggesting readers wait for rallies above $31.00 before considering new positions. That didn't really work for us today. ASPS hit $31.09 midday but was unable to maintain it. We may want to wait for ASPS to close above $31.00 before considering new bullish positions.

Don't forget that this is a higher-risk, more aggressive trade.

Trade Description: May 9, 2015:
Shares of ASPS have been crushed from its highs near $170 a share back in late 2013 to almost $12 a share in March this year. That is thanks to the incestuous relationship that ASPS has with a handful of companies all founded by one man - William Erbey. One such company, Ocwen (OCN), is in danger of going out of business as authorities investigate the company on charges of misconduct. There is a risk to ASPS since a large chunk of ASPS revenues come from a relationship it has with OCN. It's not a surprise to see the slide in ASPS shares. However, the sell-off appears to be overdone and the stock may have found a bottom.

ASPS is in the services sector. According to the company, "Altisource Portfolio Solutions S.A. is a premier marketplace and transaction solutions provider for the real estate, mortgage and consumer debt industries offering both distribution and content. Altisource leverages proprietary business process, vendor and electronic payment management software and behavioral science based analytics to improve outcomes for marketplace participants. Altisource has been named to Fortune’s fastest growing global companies two years in a row."

Their most recent earnings report was April 23rd. Earnings soared +72% from a year ago to $0.56 a share even as revenues fell -1.0% to $207.8 million, which was significantly below estimates.

One of the most alluring features for traders to be short-term bullish on ASPS is the opportunity for a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 41% of the very small 9.6 million share float. That's very high and provides plenty of fuel for a short-covering fueled rally. Of course there is a risk. If OCN loses its legal battle with authorities it could go out of business and that will crush ASPS but that seems unlikely in the short-term. Meanwhile the broader market is pushing higher and poised to breakout, which could help fuel more short covering in ASPS.

The stock is pushing against resistance near $30-31. We are suggesting a trigger to launch small bullish positions at $31.10. I'm suggesting small positions to limit risk because ASPS can be volatile.

*small positions to limit risk* - Suggested Positions -

Long ASPS stock @ $31.10

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long JUN $30 CALL (ASPS150619C30) entry $3.00

05/11/15 triggered @ 31.10
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Allegheny Technologies - ATI - close: 37.04 change: -0.19

Stop Loss: 34.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: +2.7%
Entry on May 11 at $36.05
Listed on May 05, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/18/15: ATI encountered some profit taking today and settled with a -0.5% decline. If this stock continues to slip the nearest support looks like the $35.00-36.00 area. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Trade Description: May 5, 2015:
It looks like shares of ATI have put in a bottom.

The company is in the industrial goods sector. According to ATI, "Allegheny Technologies Incorporated is one of the largest and most diversified specialty materials and components producers in the world with revenues of approximately $4.4 billion for the last twelve months. ATI has approximately 9,600 full-time employees world-wide who use innovative technologies to offer global markets a wide range of specialty materials solutions. Our major markets are aerospace and defense, oil and gas/chemical process industry, electrical energy, medical, automotive, food equipment and appliance, and construction and mining."

ATI's most recent earnings report was April 21st. Management said their Q1 2015 earnings were $0.09 a share. Depending on who you polled ATI's nine cent profit was either one cent above or one cent below analysts' estimates. Whatever the case their $0.09 profit was a big improvement from the $0.19 loss a year ago. Revenues for Q1 2015 were up +14% from a year ago to $1.13 billion, which was above analysts' estimates.

ATI saw a big improvement from their Q4 with sales up +7% sequentially. This helped drive a +25% improvement in operating profits.

ATI President and CEO Rich Harshman commented on their results, "Aerospace market sales increased 14% in the first quarter 2015 compared to the fourth quarter 2014. We saw double-digit demand growth from both jet engine and airframe customers of 14% and 22%, respectively. First quarter aerospace demand was led by organic growth of our mill products. Sales of our nickel-based alloys and specialty alloys increased 15% and sales of our titanium alloys grew 16% with a good mix of value-added mill products. We expect sales growth of our precision forgings, castings, and components to begin later this year supported by the build ramp of next-generation jet engines."

Looking ahead ATI expects demand from the oil and gas market to remain soft. However, demand from the airframe and jet engine makers should be strong throughout 2015.

The stock broke out from a consolidation pattern on its better than expected Q1 earnings. This helped generate a buy signal on the point & figure chart, which is currently forecasting at $47.00 target. Shares of ATI spent a few days struggling with technical resistance at its 200-dma but they have broken out past this level as well. The past seven months looks like a massive bottoming process for the stock. Now shares are on the verge of breaking out past key resistance in the $35-36 area. We want to use a trigger at $36.05 to launch bullish positions.

FYI: ATI's next dividend ($0.18) is this month. The ex-dividend date is May 22nd. The shareholder record date is May 27th.

- Suggested Positions -

Long ATI stock @ $36.05

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long JUL $37.50 CALL (ATI150717C37.50) entry $1.25

05/14/15 new stop @ 34.75
05/11/15 triggered $ 36.05
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


GoPro, Inc. - GPRO - close: 51.13 change: +1.04

Stop Loss: 47.45
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: +0.7%
Entry on May 14 at $50.75
Listed on May 13, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 6.5 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/18/15: Before the bell this morning shares of GPRO were upgraded. The stock reacted by spiking higher (+4.2%). Shares gave back about half of its gains by the closing bell.

More conservative traders may want to move their stop loss higher.

Trade Description: May 13, 2015:
GPRO looks like a short squeeze waiting to happen. This company is the premier brand for wearable "action" cameras.

Here's the company's rather self-confident description, "GoPro, Inc. is transforming the way consumers capture, manage, share and enjoy meaningful life experiences. We do this by enabling people to self-capture engaging, immersive photo and video content of themselves participating in their favorite activities. Our customers include some of the world's most active and passionate people. The quality and volume of their shared GoPro content, coupled with their enthusiasm for our brand, virally drives awareness and demand for our products.

What began as an idea to help athletes document themselves engaged in their sport has become a widely adopted solution for people to document themselves engaged in their interests, whatever they may be. From extreme to mainstream, professional to consumer, GoPro has enabled the world to capture and share its passions. And in doing so the world, in turn, is helping GoPro become one of the most exciting and aspirational companies of our time."

GPRO came to market with its IPO in June 2014. The stock opened for trading at $28.65 and by October 2014 shares were nearing $100 per share. That proved to be the peak. GPRO spent the next six months correcting lower and finally bottomed near $37 in March this year. Now the stock is building on a steady trend of higher lows as investors digest the company's massive growth.

GPRO reported their 2015 Q1 results on April 28th. Wall Street was expecting a profit of $0.18 per share on revenues of $341.7 million. GPRO beat estimates with a profit of $0.24 a share. Revenues were up +54% from a year ago to $363 million.

Management said it was their second highest revenue quarter in history. Their GAAP results saw gross margins improve from 40.9% in Q1 2014 to 45.1% today. Their net income attributable to common stockholders increased 98.2% compared to the first quarter of 2014. International sales surged +66% and accounted for just over half of total sales in Q1 2015. GPRO shipped 1.3 million devices in the first quarter. This was the third quarter in a row of more than one million units.

GPRO management raised their guidance. They now expect 2015 Q2 revenues in the $380-400 million range with earnings in the $0.24-0.26 region. Analysts were only forecasting $335 million with earnings at $0.16 a share.

The better than expected Q1 results and the upgraded Q2 guidance sparked several upgrades. Multiple analysts raised their price target on GPRO. New targets include: $56, $65, $66, $70, and $76.

There are plenty of bears who think GPRO is overpriced with P/E above 47 and rising competition. The biggest argument against GPRO is competition from a Chinese rival Xiaomi who has produced a competitive action camera that they're selling for less than half of GPRO's similar model. GPRO critics are worried this could kill GPRO's growth in China and the rest of Asia. It's too early to tell who will be right but momentum is currently favoring the bulls.

The most recent data listed short interest at 24% of the 55.5 million share float. That's plenty of fuel to send GPRO soaring. Right now the stock is hovering around the psychological resistance level at $50.00. We are suggesting a trigger to launch bullish positions at $50.75.

- Suggested Positions -

Long GPRO stock @ $50.75

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long JUL $55 CALL (GPRO150717C55) entry $2.00

05/14/15 triggered @ $50.75
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Mobileye N.V. - MBLY - close: 47.80 change: -0.68

Stop Loss: 44.95
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: -1.7%
Entry on May 15 at $48.65
Listed on May 14, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 3.2 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/18/15: MBLY snapped a three-day winning streak with today's decline. The stock underperformed the major U.S. indices with a -1.4% loss. That's after shares pared their decline from its intraday lows near $47.00. I am suggesting readers wait for a rally above $48.50 before considering new bullish positions.

Earlier today MBLY announced they will hold their annual shareholder meeting on June 25th.

Trade Description: May 14, 2015:
The future of hands free driving is a lot closer tha you might think. MBLY is leading the charge. Its technology is already in more than three million cars made by companies like BMW, General Motors, and Tesla.

What exactly does this technology due? DAS stands for driver assistance systems. Sometimes you might see it called ADAS for advanced driver assistance systems. This new technology helps drivers avoid collisions with other vehicles, pedestrians, bicyclists, and more while also alerting the driver to road signs and traffic lights.

The company website describes Mobileye as "a technological leader in the area of software algorithms, system-on-chips and customer applications that are based on processing visual information for the market of driver assistance systems (DAS). Mobileye's technology keeps passengers safer on the roads, reduces the risks of traffic accidents, saves lives and has the potential to revolutionize the driving experience by enabling autonomous driving."

MBLY said their technology will be available in 160 car models from 18 car manufacturers (OEMs). Further, Mobileye's technology has been selected for implementation in serial production of 237 car models from 20 OEMs by 2016.

The company is already developing a system for autonomous driving or hands free driving. They currently plan to launch an autonomous system in 2016 that will work at highway speeds and in congested traffic situations.

MBLY stock came to market in August 2014. Demand was strong enough that they upped the number of shares available from around 27 million to 35.6 million shares. They raised the IPO price from the $22 range to $25. This valued MBLY at $5.3 billion. The first day of trading saw MBLY opened at $36.00. Two months later MBLY traded at $60.00.

The IPO excitement has faded but MBLY's valuation has grown. There are now 216.6 million shares outstanding and the company's market cap is now more than $10 billion.

It's easy to see why investors are optimistic on MBLY. Annual revenues have soared from $19.2 million in 2011 to $143.6 million in 2014. Their revenues last year rose +77% from 2013. Currently a poll of analysts by Thomson Reuters is forecasting sales to rise +50% in 2015 to $218.3 million. Earnings are forecasted to surge +95%.

MBLY's most recent earnings report was May 11th. They reported their Q1 results of $0.08 per share, which was a penny above estimates. Revenues were up +28% to $45.6 million, also above estimates.

Last year the New York Post recently ran an article discussing how the White House might generate a bullish tailwind for MBLY. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration issued a research report that estimated ADAS type of technology could eliminate almost 600,000 left-turn and intersection crashes a year. They report also suggested that adding FCAM and lane departure technology on big vehicles like over the road trucks could reduce accidents with these huge vehicles by up to 25%. Following this report the White House said they would draft new rules that required this sort of tech in new vehicles.

Most of Wall Street analysts seem bullish. Industry experts forecast the camera-based ADAS market to grow +37% CAGR from 2014 to 2020. Goldman Sachs Recently upgraded the stock to a buy. They believe MBLY will see a 34% CAGR in sales through 2020 and will have 65% of the market by then. MBLY also garnered positive comments from a Morgan Stanley analyst who raised their price target to $68. They believe the street's 2015 estimates for MBLY are too low after the company delivered super strong growth in the last couple of quarters.

Technically shares of MBLY look attractive with a bullish trend of higher lows. The point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting at $69.00 target. Currently MBLY is hovering just below its late April highs in the $48.00-48.50 zone. We want to launch positions on a breakout past this region. Tonight we're suggesting a trigger at $48.65.

- Suggested Positions -

Long MBLY stock @ $48.65

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long JUL $50 CALL (MBLY150717C50) entry $2.10

05/15/15 triggered @ $48.65
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - close: 51.18 change: +0.38

Stop Loss: 48.40
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: +0.3%
Entry on May 18 at $51.05
Listed on May 15, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 5.8 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/18/15: Our new play on SBUX is open. Shares initially opened lower but the weakness didn't last very long. SBUX hit our suggested entry point at $51.05 this afternoon.

After the closing bell SBUX made news with a new partnership with streaming music service Spotify. On a CNBC interview with Jim Cramer SBUX's CEO and Chairman Howard Schultz hinted at more partnerships later this year. Shares of SBUX are up about 40 cents after hours on this news.

Trade Description: May 16, 2015:
The world seems to have an insatiable appetite for coffee. Starbucks is more than happy to help fill that need. The first Starbucks opened in Seattle back in 1971. Today they are a global brand with locations in 66 countries. SBUX operates more than 21,000 retail stores with more than 300,000 workers.

A few years ago Business Insider published some facts on SBUX. The average SBUX customer stops by six times a month. The really loyal, top 20% of customers, come in 16 times a month. There are nearly 90,000 potential drink combinations at your local Starbucks. The company spends more money on healthcare for its employees than it does on coffee beans.

The company's earnings results were only mediocre most of 2014 year. You can see the results in SBUX's long-term chart below. After incredible gains in 2013 SBUX has essentially consolidated sideways in 2014. SBUX broke out of that sideways funk after it reported earnings in January 2015.

Five-Year Plan

In late 2014 SBUX announced their five-year plan to increase profitability. Here's an excerpt from a company press release:

"The seismic shift in consumer behavior underway presents tremendous opportunity for businesses the world over that are prepared and positioned to seize it," Schultz said (Howard Schultz is the Founder, Chairman, President, and CEO of Starbucks). "Over the next five years, Starbucks will continue to lean into this new era by innovating in transformational ways across coffee, tea and retail, elevating our customer and partner experiences, continuing to extend our leadership position in digital and mobile technologies, and unlocking new markets, channels and formats around the world. Investing in our coffee, our people and the communities we serve will remain at our core as we continue to redefine the role and responsibility of a public company in today's disruptive global consumer, economic and retail environments."

"Starbucks business, operations and growth trajectory around the world have never been stronger, and we are more confident than ever in our ability to continue to drive significant growth and meet our long term financial targets," said Troy Alstead, Starbucks chief operating officer. "We have more customers visiting more stores more frequently, both in the U.S. and around the world, than at any time in our history. And we expect both the number of customers visiting our stores and the amount they spend with us to accelerate in the years ahead. With a robust pipeline of mobile commerce innovations that will drive transactions and unprecedented speed of service, Starbucks is ushering in a new era of customer convenience. We believe the runway of opportunity for Starbucks inside and outside of our stores is both vast and unmatched by any other retailer on the planet."

The company believes they can grow revenues from $16 billion in FY2014 to almost $30 billion by FY2019. To do that they will expand deeper into regions like China, Japan, India, and Brazil. SBUX expects to nearly double its stores in China to over 3,000 locations in the next five years

They're also working hard on their mobile ordering technology to speed up the experience so customers don't have to wait in line so long at their busiest locations. This will also include a delivery service.

Part of the five-year plan is a new marketing campaign called Starbucks Evening experience. The company wants to be the "third place" between home and work. After 4:00 p.m. they will start offering alcohol, mainly wine and beer, in addition to new tapas-like smaller plates.

The company recently launched its first ever Starbucks Reserve Roastery and Tasting Room in Seattle, near their iconic first retail store. The new roastery is supposed to be the ultimate coffee lovers experience. CEO Schultz said they will eventually open up about 100 of these Starbucks Reserve locations.

SBUX is having a pretty good 2015 so far with the stock up +23%, outperforming the broader market. A lot of this gain was thanks to a post-earnings pops. SBUX reported its Q1 2015 results on January 22nd. Adjusted earnings, backing out one-time charges, were $0.80 a share. That's in-line with estimates. Revenues were up +13.3% to $4.8 billion, also in-line with estimates.

It was a very strong holiday period for SBUX thanks in part to astonishing gift card sales. The amount of money loaded onto SBUX gift cards during the holidays surged +17% to a record $1.6 billion. One out of every seven Americans received a SBUX gift card. The company also saw significant growth overseas with its China and Asia-Pacific business soaring +85% to sales of $495 million. Their mobile transactions have reached seven million transactions a week. Investors applauded the news in spite of the in-line results and sent SBUX soaring to new all-time highs the next day.

This earnings scenario, where SBUX delivers results in-line with estimates and rallies anyway, just happened again in late April. Of course it's worth noting that even in-line results still represent exceptional growth.

SBUX reported its Q2 (2015) on April 23rd. Earnings of $0.33 a share were in-line with estimates. Revenues were up +17.8% to $4.56 billion, slightly above expectations. It was their strongest growth in four years. Customers are responding well to new drink options and an updated food menu. They're also developing new delivery options, mobile pay options, and alcoholic drinks available at select locations.

Worldwide same-store sales grew +7%. This was significantly above estimates. It also marked the 21st consecutive quarter where SBUX's comparable store sales were +5% or more.

The company issued mixed guidance. The stronger dollar is having an impact. They see fiscal 2015 results in the $1.55-1.57 range. That compares to Wall Street estimates for $1.57 per share. However, the company's revenue estimates are more optimistic. They're forecasting +16-18% sales growth into the $19.1-19.4 billion zone compares to analysts' estimates of $19.1 billion.

SBUX popped to new highs following its results and then spent the next week consolidating lower. Investors started buying the dips again at its bullish trend of higher lows. It looks like the consolidation is over and SBUX is pushing higher. We want to hop on board. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $51.05.

- Suggested Positions -

Long SBUX stock @ $51.05

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long JUL $50 CALL (SBUX150717C50) entry $2.07

05/18/15 triggered @ $51.05
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Synchronoss Technologies - SNCR - close: 46.75 change: +0.43

Stop Loss: 43.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: +1.4%
Entry on May 11 at $46.10
Listed on May 09, 2015
Time Frame: Exit prior to June option expiration
Average Daily Volume = 527 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/18/15: SNCR displayed relative strength today with a +0.9% gain. Yet shares seem to be stuck between $46.00 and short-term resistance at its 50-dma directly overhead. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Trade Description: May 9, 2015:
This trade is not for the faint of heart. Shares of SNCR have produced some rollercoaster like moves in the last six months. We want to use that volatility to our advantage.

SNCR is part of the technology sector. According to the company, "Synchronoss Technologies, Inc. (SNCR), is the mobile innovation leader that provides cloud solutions and software-based activation for connected devices across the globe. The company's proven and scalable technology solutions allow customers to connect, synchronize and activate connected devices and services that empower enterprises and consumers to live in a connected world."

Earnings and revenue growth has been impressive. SNCR has beaten Wall Street's earnings estimate the last four quarters in a row. Meanwhile sales have been growing at a strong double-digit pace. Looking at the last four quarters SNCR reported sales growth of +23.6%, +39.6%, +34.7%, and most recently +34.9%.

SNCR's 2015 Q1 report was announced on April 29th. Earnings rose +26% from a year ago. SNCR's Founder and CEO Stephen Waldis commented on his company's results, "Synchronoss delivered a strong start to 2015, highlighted by first quarter results that were at or above the high end of expectations. During the quarter, both sides of our business contributed to the strong performance, particularly our Cloud Services, which grew by 63% year-over-year. Mobile Operators around the world are capitalizing on the success of how personal cloud can drive important benefits to their valuable subscribers. We are pleased with our successful formula for helping our customers gain adoption and success with our personal cloud platform."

The stock was crushed from $52 to $44 (-15%) during the market's most recent swoon in the last several days of April. The sell-off was also a reaction to SNCR's earnings results. It looks like the sell-off was overdone and investors have started buying the stock near technical support at its rising 200-dma.

Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to launch small bullish positions at $46.10. More conservative traders may want to wait for a rally past the 10-dma instead (above 46.33). We'll try and limit our risk with a stop at $43.85. Keep in mind this is an aggressive play due to SNCR's volatility.

*small positions to limit risk* - Suggested Positions -

Long SNCR stock @ $46.10

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long JUN $50 CALL (SNCR150619C50) entry $0.90

05/11/15 triggered @ 46.10
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Total System Services, Inc. - TSS - close: 41.91 change: +0.51

Stop Loss: 39.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: +2.2%
Entry on May 08 at $41.02
Listed on May 07, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 843 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/18/15: Shares of TSS are also starting the week off on a bullish note. Shares outperformed the major indices with a +1.23% gain. This is another new all-time high. We will raise the stop loss to $39.85. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop even higher.

Trade Description: May 8, 2015:
Consistently beating Wall Street's earnings estimates has driven shares of TSS to new all-time highs. The company is in the financial sector. The XLF financial ETF is down -1.2% for the year. TSS is up +19% for the year.

According to the company, "At TSYS® (TSS), we believe payments should revolve around people, not the other way around. We call this belief People-Centered Payments®. By putting people at the center of every decision we make, TSYS supports financial institutions, businesses and governments in more than 80 countries. Through NetSpend®, A TSYS Company, we empower consumers with the convenience, security, and freedom to be self-banked. TSYS offers issuer services and merchant payment acceptance for credit, debit, prepaid, healthcare and business solutions. TSYS' headquarters are located in Columbus, Ga., U.S.A., with local offices spread across the Americas, EMEA and Asia-Pacific."

This company has beaten analysts' estimates on both the top and bottom line the last four quarters in a row. Their most recent earnings report was April 28th. Earnings per share soared +41% to $0.54. That was eight cents above estimates. Revenues were up +11.7% to $662.2 million.

A few months ago (January 2015) TSS announced a new 20 million share stock buyback program to replace their old one. Last quarter they repurchased 1.45 million shares. When you include the company's dividend they paid out 73% of their available free cash flow to shareholders.

TSS' President and CEO, Mr. M. Troy Woods, commented on their recent results saying, "As a result of the great start to the year, we are revising our adjusted EPS guidance to grow between 12-14% from the previous range of 11-13%."

Shares of TSS surged to new highs on its earnings report. Since then traders have been buying the dips and the stock set a record closing high today. Tonight we're suggesting a trigger to launch bullish positions at $40.85.

FYI: TSS will hold an analyst day on May 20th.

- Suggested Positions -

Long TSS stock @ $41.02

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long AUG $40 CALL (TSS150821C40) entry $2.50

05/18/15 new stop @ 39.85
05/08/15 triggered on gap open at $41.02, suggested entry was $40.85
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike




BEARISH Play Updates

Emerge Energy Services - EMES - close: 39.19 change: +1.22

Stop Loss: 40.35
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: -4.1%
Entry on May 07 at $37.65
Listed on May 06, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 413 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/18/15: Our EMES trade is in trouble. This morning, before the opening bell, Goldman Sachs upgraded this stock from a neutral to a buy. Shares spiked higher at the open and ended the session with a +3.2% gain. The only good thing about today's move was how EMES struggled with round-number resistance at $40.00. Our stop loss is at $40.35.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Trade Description: May 6, 2015:
The bubble in fracking sand and proppant stocks popped in 2014. The top in the fracking sand producers was just a couple of months after crude oil peaked last year. The impact of crude oil's decline and the industry's reaction to the oversupply-pricing issue will still be felt for months to come. Just as the oil and gas producers are cutting expenses, mothballing rigs, and delaying new projects, the proppant companies are forced to do the same. EMES recently announced they were canceling plans to build a new silica sand processing facility.

EMES is in the basic materials sector. They're part of the oil services industry. According to the company, "Emerge Energy Services LP (EMES) is a growth-oriented limited partnership engaged in the businesses of mining, producing, and distributing silica sand, a key input for the hydraulic fracturing of oil and natural gas wells. Emerge Energy also processes transmix, distributes refined motor fuels, operates bulk motor fuel storage terminals, and provides complementary fuel services. Emerge Energy operates its sand segment through its subsidiary Superior Silica Sands LLC and its fuel segment through its subsidiaries Direct Fuels LLC and Allied Energy Company LLC."

The earnings picture has been damaged by a very rough pricing environment for EMES' sand. Their Q4 2014 earnings, announced on March 2nd, were $1.01 per share. That was 12 cents below expectations. Q4 revenues were down -1.4% to $242.6 million compared to analysts' estimates of $301 million. That's a huge revenue miss.

The weakness continued in the first quarter. Wall Street was expecting EMES to report Q1 2015 earnings of $0.83 a share on revenues of $264 million. The company only delivered $0.39 per share with revenues down -25.5% to $204 million. The rest of 2015 is expected to remain challenging.

The stock was hammered again on April 24th when EMES management reduced their dividend from $1.41 per share down to $1.00.

The $40.00 level has been support and now shares are breaking down. The most recent data listed short interest at 13% of the very small 14.6 million share float. This time the shorts are probably right but the high short interest could make this a volatile trade. EMES' recent attempt at a bounce has been failing. We want to catch the next leg lower. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to launch bearish positions at $37.65.

- Suggested Positions -

Short EMES stock @ $37.65

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long JUN $35 PUT (EMES150619P35) entry $2.35

05/18/15 Goldman upgraded EMES this morning
05/16/15 new stop @ $40.35
05/07/15 triggered @ 37.65
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike