Editor's Note:
Another bounce in crude oil fueled widespread gains among energy stocks. The U.S. market delivered a strong session on Monday with all the major indices posting gains.

JBLU has been removed.

Bearish plays stopped out: BDC, BRS, IP, SNI.


Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Ingram Micro Inc. - IM - close: 28.13 change: +0.76

Stop Loss: 25.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: +1.0%
Entry on September 09 at $27.85
Listed on September 8, 2015
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings in late October
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/05/15: It looks like our patience with IM might pay off. Shares displayed significant relative strength today with a +2.7% surge. IM also broke out past resistance near the $28.00 level.

I would be tempted to launch new bullish positions here but IM actually looks a little short-term overbought with the rally from its recent lows below $26.00.

Trade Description: September 8, 2015:
IM looks like it is about to break out from a huge consolidation pattern.

The company operates in the services sector. According to the company, "Ingram Micro helps businesses fully realize the promise of technology® - helping them maximize the value of the technology that they make, sell or use. With its vast global infrastructure and focus on cloud, mobility, supply chain and technology solutions, Ingram Micro enables business partners to operate more efficiently and successfully in the markets they serve.

No other company delivers as broad and deep a spectrum of technology and supply chain services to businesses around the world. Founded in 1979, Ingram Micro's role as a leader and innovator in technology and supply chain services has fueled its rise to the 69th ranked corporation in the FORTUNE 500.

Ingram Micro amplifies the value of its position at the intersection of thousands of vendor, reseller and retailer partners by customizing and delivering highly targeted applications for industry verticals, business to business customers and commercial needs. From provisioning solutions for system integrators working at the heart of the network to offerings through the full lifecycle of mobile devices, SMB to global enterprise software and computing, point of sale to cloud services, professional AV to physical security-Ingram Micro is trusted by customers to have the expertise and resources to help them define and push the boundaries of what's possible.

The company supports global operations by way of an extensive sales and distribution network throughout North America, Europe, Middle East and Africa, Latin America and Asia Pacific."

The company's most recent earnings report was July 30th. Wall Street was expecting a profit of $0.54 per share on revenues of $10.9 billion. IM delivered $0.55 cents. Revenues were down -3.3% to $10.55 billion. However, if you back out the impact of currency headwinds then IM's results look a lot better. Negative currency translations shaved off -8% from their revenues.

IM management's guidance was a little soft but they announced the initiation of a $0.10 per share dividend and that they were boosting their stock buyback program by $300 million. The stock soared on this news. Shares rallied from $24.50 to $27.25 the next day.

IM was not immune to the market's late-August crash but investors bought the dip at support near its July lows. Shares have since erased the sell-off. Now IM is poised to breakout past resistance and what looks like a consolidation that started in early 2014.

A rally past $28.00 would generate a new buy signal on the point & figure chart. We want to jump in a little earlier. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $27.85.

NOTE: I want to caution readers about the options. The spreads on most of IM's options are a little bit wide. Actually some of them are probably too wide. Be careful with the options.

- Suggested Positions -

Long IM stock @ $27.85

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long DEC $30 CALL (IM151218C30) entry $1.15

09/15/15 Caution - IM did not participate in the market's rally today
09/09/15 triggered @ $27.85
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Mobileye N.V. - MBLY - close: 49.00 change: -0.43

Stop Loss: None. No stop at this time.
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: -1.5%
Entry on October 05 at $49.75
Listed on October 03, 2015
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings in mid November
Average Daily Volume = 4.6 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/05/15: Our new trade on MBLY is open but I worried about today's performance. Shares tagged a new three-week high and hit our suggested entry point at $49.75. However, the stock failed to breakout past round-number resistance at $50.00. Plus MBLY underperformed the broader market with a -0.8% decline by the close. At this point I would wait for MBLY to trade above the $50.00 mark before considering new bullish positions.

Trade Description: October 3, 2015:
The future of hands free driving is a lot closer than you might think. MBLY is leading the charge. Their technology is already in more than three million cars made by companies like BMW, General Motors, and Tesla.

What exactly does this technology do? DAS stands for driver assistance systems. Sometimes you might see it called ADAS for advanced driver assistance systems. This new technology helps drivers avoid collisions with other vehicles, pedestrians, bicyclists, and more while also alerting the driver to road signs and traffic lights.

The company website describes Mobileye as "a technological leader in the area of software algorithms, system-on-chips and customer applications that are based on processing visual information for the market of driver assistance systems (DAS). Mobileye's technology keeps passengers safer on the roads, reduces the risks of traffic accidents, saves lives and has the potential to revolutionize the driving experience by enabling autonomous driving."

MBLY said their technology will be available in 160 car models from 18 car manufacturers (OEMs). Further, Mobileye's technology has been selected for implementation in serial production of 237 car models from 20 OEMs by 2016.

The company is already developing a system for autonomous driving or hands free driving. They currently plan to launch an autonomous system in 2016 that will work at highway speeds and in congested traffic situations.

MBLY stock came to market in August 2014. Demand was strong enough that they upped the number of shares available from around 27 million to 35.6 million shares. They raised the IPO price from the $22 range to $25. This valued MBLY at $5.3 billion. The first day of trading saw MBLY opened at $36.00. Two months later MBLY traded at $60.00.

It's easy to see why investors are optimistic on MBLY. Annual revenues have soared from $19.2 million in 2011 to $143.6 million in 2014. Their revenues last year rose +77% from 2013. Currently a poll of analysts by Thomson Reuters is forecasting sales to rise +50% in 2015 to $218.3 million. Earnings are forecasted to surge +95%.

MBLY's Q1 report was announced in May. Their Q1 earnings were $0.08 per share, which was a penny above estimates. Revenues were up +28% to $45.6 million, also above estimates.

Q2 results, announced August 6th, were better. Earnings were $0.10 a share, which was two cents better than expected. Revenues were up +56.7% to $52.8 million, above expectations.

Last year the New York Post ran an article discussing how the White House might generate a bullish tailwind for MBLY. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration issued a research report that estimated ADAS type of technology could eliminate almost 600,000 left-turn and intersection crashes a year. They report also suggested that adding FCAM and lane departure technology on big vehicles like over the road trucks could reduce accidents with these huge vehicles by up to 25%. Following this report the White House said they would draft new rules that required this sort of tech in new vehicles.

A couple of weeks ago the U.S. Department of Transportation and IIHS announced that ten auto manufacturers had agreed to add autonomous emergency breaking to all new U.S. models as a standard feature. This should be a huge bonus for MBLY. The basic autonomous breaking system ranges from $120 to $350 per vehicle (FYI: the U.S. auto market is on pace to sell more than 18 million vehicles this year). MBLY has a history of winning 80 to 90 percent of ADAS contracts so this new push by the government and the auto industry's acceptance could mean billions to MBLY's bottom line going forward.

Naturally, with a high-profile, high-growth stock like MBLY there are critics. Bears point out that MBLY's valuations are sky high and they would be right. MBLY's trailing P/E is over 1,000 while it's forward P/E is about 65. Most of Wall Street seems bullish on MBLY as they can see the long-term growth outlook for MBLY. If this rally continues some of those shorts could panic and fuel a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 18% of the 163 million share float.

The stock looks ready to sprint higher after a healthy bounce off support. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to launch bullish positions at $49.75. If triggered I would target a run into the $58-62 region. I am suggesting small positions as this is an aggressive, higher-risk trade. MBLY is a volatile stock. You may want to use the call options to limit your risk. More conservative traders may want to wait for MBLY to rally past $50.00 before initiating positions. Normally the $50.00 level would be round-number, psychological resistance. We're suggesting a trigger just below it since MBLY could move fast once it breaks out. It's worth noting that a rally past $50.00 will generate a new buy signal on the point & figure chart.

*small positions to limit risk* - Suggested Positions -

Long MBLY stock @ $49.75

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long NOV $55 CALL (MBLY151120C55) entry $2.30

10/05/15 triggered @ $49.75
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike




BEARISH Play Updates

GNC Holdings - GNC - close: 41.51 change: +0.75

Stop Loss: 42.25
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: -4.4%
Entry on September 30 at $39.75
Listed on September 29, 2015
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings at the end of October
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/05/15: A rising tide lifts all boats and GNC continued to bounce today. Shares added +1.8% and closed above short-term technical resistance at the 10-dma. The $42.00 mark remains overhead resistance.

No new positions at this time.

Trade Description: September 29, 2015:
Tougher competition, increased government scrutiny, and changing consumer habits have not been a good recipe for shares of GNC. The stock is down -14.6% in 2015 and poised to hit new lows.

GNC is in the services sector. According to the company, "GNC Holdings, Inc. - headquartered in Pittsburgh, PA - is a leading global specialty health, wellness and performance retailer. The Company's foundation is built on 80 years of superior product quality and innovation. GNC connects customers to their best by offering a premium assortment of vitamins, minerals, herbal supplements, diet, sports nutrition and protein products. This assortment features proprietary GNC - including Mega Men®, Ultra Mega®, Total Lean®, Pro Performance®, Pro Performance® AMP, Beyond Raw®, GNC Puredge®, GNC GenetixHD®, Herbal Plus® - and nationally recognized third party brands.

GNC's diversified, multi-channel business model generates revenue from product sales through company-owned retail stores, domestic and international franchise activities, third party contract manufacturing, e-commerce and corporate partnerships. As of June 30, 2015, GNC had more than 9,000 locations, of which more than 6,700 retail locations are in the United States (including 1,067 franchise and 2,304 Rite Aid franchise store-within-a-store locations) and franchise operations in more than 50 countries."

GNC faces multiple issues. This year there have been negative headlines for the supplement industry. Testing showed that multiple supplements at various retailers were filled with bogus ingredients. Companies like Wal-mart, Target, Walgreens, and GNC have all come under fire for selling the fraudulent products. This will likely increase government scrutiny for supplements in general.

GNC also faces an issue with changing consumer habits. While most of Americans are overweight and out of shape there is a growing trend of healthier eating. Consumers want to know what they are putting in their bodies. That means less pills and more raw fruits and veggies, especially organic ones.

The biggest challenge could be tough competition. Online rivals can provide supplements at cheaper prices than GNC's retail stores. Best Buy (BBY), the consumer electronics store, has faced this issue for years with consumers coming into a Best Buy store, shopping around, and then going home and buying the product online from Amazon.com for less money and getting it delivered. GNC faces the same issue.

GNC's earnings have struggled. Their Q1 report, announced April 30th, missed estimates. GNC missed on both the bottom line profit estimates and the revenue estimate. Revenues were down -0.6% and same-store sales plunged -4.1%. Management lowered their 2015 guidance following this report.

GNC's Q2 results were not much better. They missed on both the top and bottom line again. Earnings only grew +2.6% from a year ago. Revenues were virtually flat with a +0.5% gain. Same-store sales fell -2.8%.

The stock rallied anyway because management said they would focus on more franchised stores. This news seemed to have sparked some short covering. Shares of GNC soared from $42 to $50 in just a few days but the rally reversed. Now the stock is trading at new 2015 lows. The company's announcement on August 4th to boost their stock buyback program by an additional $500 million did not help the stock very much.

GNC is in a bear market and poised to break major support at the $40.00 level. The point & figure chart is bearish and forecasting at $33.00 target. Tonight I am suggesting a trigger to launch bearish positions at $39.75.

- Suggested Positions -

Short GNC stock @ $39.75

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long NOV $37.50 PUT (GNC151120P37.5) entry $1.60

09/30/15 triggered @ $39.75
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Synchronoss Technologies - SNCR - close: 33.47 change: +0.88

Stop Loss: 35.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: -3.3%
Entry on October 01 at $32.40
Listed on September 30, 2015
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings in late October
Average Daily Volume = 603 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/05/15: Earlier today SNCR announced it had won a three-year, $80 million deal with Mobifone. This news may have given SNCR's stock a boost. Shares outperformed the market with a +2.7% gain.

More conservative traders may want to tighten their stop loss. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Trade Description: September 30, 2015:
SNCR is a technology company with strong revenue growth and yet investors have been selling the stock anyway.

SNCR is considered part of the application software industry. According to the company, "Synchronoss Technologies, Inc., is the mobile innovation leader that provides cloud solutions and software-based activation for connected devices across the globe. The company's proven and scalable technology solutions allow customers to connect, synchronize and activate connected devices and services that empower enterprises and consumers to live in a connected world."

SNCR has been consistently beating Wall Street's earnings expectations. The last three quarters in a row SNCR has delivered bottom line and top line growth above expectations. 2014's Q4 revenues were up +34.7%. 2015 Q1 sales rose +34.9% and Q2 sales rose +33.2%. Yet with strong results like these the stock is down -21.6% year to date and down -36% from its 2015 high.

Technically SNCR had been churning sideways in a wide consolidation pattern for months. It broke down from this consolidation in August when the broader market corrected lower. When the market produced a big bounce off its August lows SNCR did not participate.

Several days ago shares of SNCR collapsed on worries that they might lose their cloud-storage contract with Verizon (VZ). Several analysts defended SNCR and said the drop was a buying opportunity. Both SNCR and VZ said their contract has not changed and was good until 2018. Yet the oversold bounce from this story only lasted one day. Traders have been selling SNCR on every rally.

There is a risk that SNCR is a takeover target. Back in June and July there were rumors that SNCR was exploring a sale of the company. There were also stories that private equity might be interested in taking SNCR private. Yet this acquisition risk has not generated any new buying interest in the stock. Investors are bearish and the most recent data listed short interest at 17.7% of the 38.0 million share float. That's enough to raise the risk of a short squeeze.

Tonight I am suggesting small bearish positions if SNCR trades at $32.40 or lower. We want to use small positions to limit our risk. Investors might want to stick to put options to really limit risk.

- Suggested Positions - small positions to limit risk.

Short SNCR stock @ $32.40

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long NOV $30 PUT (SNCR151120P30) entry $1.90

10/01/15 triggered @ $32.40
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


iPath S&P500 VIX Futures ETN - VXX - close: 22.64 change: -1.39

Stop Loss: None, no stop at this time.
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: -3.8%
2nd position Gain/Loss: +22.0%
Entry on August 25 at $21.82
2nd position: September 2nd at $29.01
Listed on August 24, 2015
Time Frame: Exit prior to October option expiration
Average Daily Volume = 50 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/05/15: Another rally for the stock market pushed the VXX down to new two-week lows.

We have less than two weeks left on our October options.

No new positions at this time.

Trade Description: August 24, 2015
The U.S. stock market's sell-off in the last three days has been extreme. Most of the major indices have collapsed into correction territory (-10% from their highs). The volatile moves in the market have investors panicking for protection. This drives up demand for put options and this fuels a rally in the CBOE volatility index (the VIX).

You can see on this long-term weekly chart that the VIX spiked up to levels not seen since the 2008 bear market during the financial crisis. Moves like this do not happen very often. The VIX rarely stays this high very long.

(see VIX chart from the August 24th play description)

How do we trade the VIX? One way is the VXX, which is an ETN but trades like a stock.

Here is an explanation from the product website:

The iPath® S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures® ETNs (the "ETNs") are designed to provide exposure to the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term FuturesTM Index Total Return (the "Index"). The ETNs are riskier than ordinary unsecured debt securities and have no principal protection. The ETNs are unsecured debt obligations of the issuer, Barclays Bank PLC, and are not, either directly or indirectly, an obligation of or guaranteed by any third party. Any payment to be made on the ETNs, including any payment at maturity or upon redemption, depends on the ability of Barclays Bank PLC to satisfy its obligations as they come due. An investment in the ETNs involves significant risks, including possible loss of principal and may not be suitable for all investors.

The Index is designed to provide access to equity market volatility through CBOE Volatility Index® (the "VIX Index") futures. The Index offers exposure to a daily rolling long position in the first and second month VIX futures contracts and reflects market participants' views of the future direction of the VIX index at the time of expiration of the VIX futures contracts comprising the Index. Owning the ETNs is not the same as owning interests in the index components included in the Index or a security directly linked to the performance of the Index.

I encourage readers to check out a long-term chart of the VXX. This thing has been a consistent loser. One market pundit said the VXX is where money goes to die - if you're buying it. We do not want to buy it. We want to short it. Shorting rallies seems to be a winning strategy on the VXX with a constant trend of lower highs.

Today the VXX spiked up to four-month highs near $28.00 before fading. We are suggesting bearish positions at the opening bell tomorrow. The market volatility is probably not done yet so we are not listing a stop loss yet. Our time frame is two or three weeks (or less).

- Suggested Positions -

Short the VXX @ $21.82

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long OCT $20 PUT (VXX151016P20) entry $2.93

Sept. 2nd - 2nd position (Double Down On The September 1st Spike)

Short the VXX @ $29.01

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long OCT $20 PUT (VXX151016P20) entry $0.78

09/02/15 2nd position begins. VXX gapped down at $29.01
09/01/15 Double down on this trade with the VXX's spike to 6-month highs
08/25/15 trade begins. VXX gaps down at $21.82
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike



CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

JetBlue Airways - JBLU - close: 26.49 change: +0.27

Stop Loss: 22.45
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: Unopened
Entry on September -- at $---.--
Listed on September 28, 2015
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings in late October
Average Daily Volume = 8.8 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/05/15: It looks like JBLU is not going to cooperate with our buy-the-dip strategy.

I would be tempted to launch bullish positions on a breakout to new highs past $27.35. However, we are choosing to remove JBLU as a candidate. The stock has been underperforming the major indices the last couple of sessions.

Trade did not open.

10/05/15 removed from the newsletter, suggested entry was $24.05

chart:



CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Belden Inc. - BDC - close: 49.28 change: +2.30

Stop Loss: 48.51
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: -8.2%
Entry on October 02 at $44.85
Listed on October 01, 2015
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings (late October or early November)
Average Daily Volume = 394 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/05/15: The stock market's widespread rally continued on Monday. Shares of BDC soared +4.89% on what looks like short covering. Today's move higher technically confirms Friday's bullish reversal pattern. BDC hit our stop loss at $48.51.

- Suggested Positions -

Short BDC stock @ $44.85 exit $48.51 (-8.2%)

10/05/15 stopped @ 48.51
10/02/15 triggered @ $44.85
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Bristow Group, Inc. - BRS - close: 29.87 change: +1.60

Stop Loss: 28.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: -3.8%
Entry on September 25 at $27.70
Listed on September 24, 2015
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings in early November
Average Daily Volume = 553 thousand
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/05/15: Another rally in crude oil today helped fuel big gains in the oil and energy-related stocks. BRS surged +5.6% and challenged round-number resistance at $30.00. Our stop loss was hit at $28.75.

*small positions to limit risk* - Suggested Positions -

Short BRS stock @ $27.70 exit $28.75 (-3.8%)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

DEC $25 PUT (BRS151218P25) entry $2.10 exit $1.10 (-47.6%)

10/05/15 stopped out
10/02/15 huge reversal higher!
09/28/15 new stop @ $28.75
09/25/15 triggered @ $27.70
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Intl. Paper Company - IP - close: 39.75 change: +0.83

Stop Loss: 39.65
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.5%
Entry on September 22 at $39.85
Listed on September 19, 2015
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings in late October
Average Daily Volume = 2.9 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/05/15: The rebound in IP continued on Monday and shares outperformed the major indices with a +2.1% gain. Our stop loss was hit at $39.65.

- Suggested Positions -

Short IP stock @ $39.85 exit $39.65 (+0.5%)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

2016 Jan $40 PUT (IP160115P40) entry $3.00 exit $2.58 (-14.0%)

10/05/15 stopped out
09/28/15 new stop @ 39.65
09/24/15 Caution - the big intraday bounce is a potential warning for bears
09/22/15 triggered @ $39.85
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Scripps Networks Interative - SNI - close: 51.30 change: +1.50

Stop Loss: 50.55
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: -3.8%
Entry on September 28 at $48.70
Listed on September 26, 2015
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings in early November
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/05/15: Goldman Sachs downgraded SNI to a "sell" today but that didn't stop the oversold bounce. The market's widespread rally helped SNI push through resistance at $50.00 and shares hit our stop loss at $50.55.

- Suggested Positions -

Short SNI stock @ $48.70 exit $50.55 (-3.8%)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

NOV $45 PUT (SNI151120P45) entry $0.95 exit $0.45 (-52.6%)

10/05/15 stopped out
09/28/15 new stop @ $50.55
09/28/15 triggered @ $48.70
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart: