Editor's Note:
The U.S. market's major indices spent most of Thursday's session drifting sideways inside a relatively narrow range. Equities posted minor losses by the closing bell.

LEN hit our stop loss. DNKN has been removed.


Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Advaxis, Inc. - ADXS - close: 12.73 change: +0.84

Stop Loss: 10.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: Unopened
Entry on October -- at $---.--
Listed on October 28, 2015
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings in mid December
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
10/29/15: Biotech stocks underperformed the broader market today. The IBB biotech ETF fell -0.9%. Shares of ADXS really underperformed. It plunged -7.7% and snapped a five-day winning streak.

If shares do not bounce tomorrow we will have to re-evaluate our strategy on ADXS. For the moment we are waiting for a new relative high. Our suggested trigger is $13.05.

Trade Description: October 28, 2015:
Biotech stocks are starting to rally again after weeks of consolidating sideways. ADXS is also on the move after building what looks like a significant bottom over the last month.

ADXS is in the healthcare sector and part of the biotech industry. According to the company, "Located in Princeton, N.J., Advaxis, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing multiple cancer immunotherapies based on its proprietary Lm Technology(TM). The Lm Technology(TM), using bioengineered live attenuated Listeria monocytogenes (Lm) bacteria, is the only known cancer immunotherapy agent shown in preclinical studies to both generate cancer fighting T-cells directed against a cancer antigen and neutralize Tregs and myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSCs) that protect the tumor microenvironment from immunologic attack and contribute to tumor growth."

"Advaxis's lead Lm Technology(TM) immunotherapy, axalimogene filolisbac (ADXS-HPV), targets human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated cancers and is in clinical trials for three potential indications: Phase 2 in invasive cervical cancer, Phase 1/2 in head and neck cancer, and Phase 1/2 in anal cancer. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted axalimogene filolisbac orphan drug designation for each of these three clinical settings. For additional information on Advaxis, visit www.advaxis.com."

Shares of ADXS peaked in June 2015 near $30.00 a share. That capped an incredible run from about $3.00 in late 2014. When biotech stocks collapsed in August and September ADXS was not spared. Shares eventually found support in the $10.00 region. If you look closely ADXS spent most of October consolidating sideways in the $9.50-12.00 range.

A few weeks ago there was an important development. The U.S. FDA issued a verbal hold on ADXS's leading treatment due to complications from one patient.

What ADXS does sounds like science fiction. They used modified Listeria bacteria to trick the body into attacking and killing cancer cells. One patient in their clinical study used ADXS' as a treatment for her cervical cancer back in 2013. This past summer (July 2015) she entered the hospital with complications and died of her cervical cancer. The FDA issued a hold on ADXS' trial because the hospital found strains of listeria in her system (two years later). Now this particular case may be unique since the patient had some orthopedic implants from a car accident that may have provided a spot for the listeria to hide without producing an infection.

This FDA hold sparked some serious selling in after hours trading with ADXS down more than -20% on this news. The next day (October 7, 2015) shares of ADXS gapped down at $8.10 and rallied back to $10.51 by the closing bell. Since this headline investors have been buying the dips in the $9.50 area. It's starting to look like all the bad news may be baked in. Meanwhile ADXS believes the FDA hold is a temporary setback.

Shares of ADXS have been showing relative strength the last few days as biotech stocks move higher. If this market rally continues ADXS could be a significant outperformer.

Veteran Premier Investor Newsletter readers already know that we consider trading biotech stocks to be higher-risk, more aggressive traders. They are high-risk, high-reward opportunities. The right or wrong headline can send a biotech stock crashing or soaring overnight. The fact that ADXS recovered so quickly following this bad news is encouraging and might suggest the "weak hands" in the stock have already exited.

Today's intraday high was $12.81. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to launch small bullish positions at $13.05. I suspect the $16.00 level might be resistance but the point & figure chart is forecasting an $18.00 target. Remember, this is an aggressive trade.

Trigger @ $13.05 (use small positions to limit risk)

- Suggested Positions -

Buy ADXS stock @ $13.05

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Buy the DEC $15 CALL (ADXS151218C15)

Entry disclaimer: To avoid an unfavorable entry point, we will not launch a new play if the stock gaps open more than $1.00 past our suggested entry point.

Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Delta Air Lines - DAL - close: 50.50 change: +0.36

Stop Loss: 47.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: -1.4%
Entry on October 23 at $51.23
Listed on October 22, 2015
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings in early January
Average Daily Volume = 9.8 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/29/15: DAL managed to recover about half of yesterday's decline. Shares also outperformed the XAL airline index with a +0.7% gain today.

I would wait for a new rally above $50.75 before considering new bullish positions. More conservative investors may want to start raising their stop loss.

Trade Description: October 22, 2015:
Depressed crude oil prices have kept jet fuel prices low. This has provided a big cushion for the major airlines. The recent strength in DAL has boosted shares to an all-time closing high.

DAL is in the services sector. According to the company, "Delta Air Lines serves more than 170 million customers each year. Delta was named to FORTUNE magazine's top 50 World's Most Admired Companies in addition to being named the most admired airline for the fourth time in five years. Additionally, Delta has ranked No.1 in the Business Travel News Annual Airline survey for four consecutive years, a first for any airline. With an industry-leading global network, Delta and the Delta Connection carriers offer service to 318 destinations in 58 countries on six continents.

Headquartered in Atlanta, Delta employs nearly 80,000 employees worldwide and operates a mainline fleet of more than 700 aircraft. The airline is a founding member of the SkyTeam global alliance and participates in the industry's leading trans-Atlantic joint venture with Air France-KLM and Alitalia as well as a joint venture with Virgin Atlantic. Including its worldwide alliance partners, Delta offers customers more than 15,000 daily flights, with key hubs and markets including Amsterdam, Atlanta, Boston, Detroit, Los Angeles, Minneapolis/St. Paul, New York-JFK, New York-LaGuardia, Paris-Charles de Gaulle, Salt Lake City, Seattle and Tokyo-Narita. Delta has invested billions of dollars in airport facilities, global products and services, and technology to enhance the customer experience in the air and on the ground."

DAL's most recent earnings report was October 14th. Wall Street was expecting a profit of $1.72 per share on revenues of $11.1 billion. DAL beat estimates with a profit of $1.74 a share. Revenues fell -0.6% to $11.11 billion, essentially in-line with estimates. At $1.74 a share DAL's earnings were up +45% from a year ago. That's thanks to the low cost of jet fuel.

Oil prices have been depressed long enough that airlines have started lowering air fares. This drop in air fares is hurting PRASM (passenger revenue per available seat mile). Fortunately DAL's fuel expense, plunged -40% from a year ago.

DAL management is forecasting Q4 PRASM to fall -2.5% to -4.5% but they are still guiding for strong operating margins (16-18%). Plus they see Q4 earnings growth of +40% or more. Think about that. How many other companies are forecasting +40% profit growth for Q4?

DAL's CEO made headlines following their Q3 earnings when he said there is a bubble in wide-body jets. What does he mean? There are a lot of wide-body jets that are being leased by other airlines. Once their lease expires there could be a flood of used jets for sale. DAL believes the price of wide-body jets (and possibly narrow-body jets) will decline and allow the company to purchase additional planes at a discount.

Oil prices are expected to remain low for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile we are approaching the busy holiday season, which means more travel by consumers. Technically shares of DAL appear to be breaking out from a multi-month consolidation pattern. The point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting at $62.00 target.

The January 2015 highs are in the $50.80-51.06 area. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to launch bullish positions at $51.15. This is a multi-week trade.

- Suggested Positions -

Long DAL stock @ $51.23

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long 2016 JAN $55 CALL (DAL160115C55) entry $1.25

10/23/15 triggered on gap open at $51.23, suggested entry was $51.15
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Wayfair Inc. - W - close: 42.94 change: -0.19

Stop Loss: 39.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: +4.3%
Entry on October 16 at $41.15
Listed on October 15, 2015
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings on November 10th
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/29/15: Shares of W rallied at the open. The stock was up +5.7% at is best levels ($45.60) and then suddenly reversed lower. Shares ended the session with a -0.4% decline.

After a rally from $40.00 to $45.60 in about three days time I am not surprised to see a little bit of profit taking. No new positions at this time.

Do not forget that W has earnings coming up on November 10th. We plan to exit prior to the announcement.

Trade Description: October 15, 2015
W displayed relative strength today and just closed above resistance. Shares could be poised for some serious short covering.

According to the company, "Wayfair Inc. offers an extensive selection of home furnishings and decor across all styles and price points. The Wayfair family of brands includes:

Wayfair.com, an online destination for all things home
Joss & Main, an online flash sales site offering inspiring home design daily
AllModern, a go-to online source for modern design
DwellStudio, a design house for fashion-forward modern furnishings
Birch Lane, a collection of classic furnishings and timeless home decor
Wayfair is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts, with additional locations in New York, Ogden, Utah, Hebron, Kentucky, Galway, Ireland, London, Berlin and Sydney."

Shares of W came to market with an IPO in October 2014 and priced at $29.00. They opened at $36.00 and spiked up to $39.43 on the first day of trading. The IPO excitement faded and shares didn't find a bottom until about $17.00 in December 2014.

Revenue Growth

The company seems to be growing at a tremendous pace. Their first earnings report as a public company was November 10th, 2014. Revenues soared +41.7% to $336.2 million. Their direct retail business surged +57%. W said their gross profit was $79.0 million versus $58.6 million a year ago.

Additional 2014 Q3 highlights included the number of active customers for their direct retail business rose +61% to $2.9 million year over year. Their LTM Net revenue per active customer increase $342 or +8.6% year over year and +3.0% from the second quarter of 2014.

W reported their Q4 results on March 4, 2015. The company delivered a loss of ($0.18) per share, which was 10 cents better than expected. Revenues were up +38.4% to $408.6 million, above expectations. Management raised their Q1 guidance significantly above Wall Street estimates.

The company beat expectations again with their Q1 report on May 11th. Results were a loss of ($0.23) per share. Revenues accelerated with a +52% gain to $424.4 million.

The earnings beats kept coming when W reported its Q2 results on August 12th. Analysts were forecasting a loss of ($0.29) per share on revenues of $438.4 million. Wayfair delivered a loss of ($0.15) per share. Revenues roared +66.5% to $491.8 million. Management said their number of active customers was up +53.5% from a year ago to four million. Repeat customer orders hit 56%. Orders delivered shot up +80%.

Big Potential

Following their Q1 results back in May the company's CEO talked about their future. On their Q1 conference call the CEO noted that their potential markets are huge. Estimates suggest that spending in their industry will hit $264 billion in the U.S. and $308 billion in Europe by 2018 (a combined total of $572 billion market).

Bears will argue that W's valuations are outrageous. They're probably right. The recent rally in the stock has bumped the company's market cap to $3.6 billion. At the same time analysts are expecting W to operate at a loss for the next two fiscal years. On a short-term basis the market doesn't seem to care about W's valuation. If this rally continues W could see a short squeeze.

A few months ago in an interview one of the co-founders said that together the two co-founders own between 40% and 50% of the stock. The current float is only 30.2 million shares, which is relatively small. The most recent data listed short interest at 79% of the float.

Shares of W have been consolidating sideways beneath resistance at the $40.00 level for about two weeks. Today shares displayed relative strength with a +3.0% gain and a close above resistance. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to launch bullish positions at $41.15 (hopefully W does not gap too far past our trigger tomorrow). We will plan on exiting prior to W's earnings report on November 10th.

- Suggested Positions -

Long W stock @ $41.15

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long NOV $45 CALL (W151120C45) entry $2.80

10/20/15 new stop @ 39.85
10/16/15 triggered @ $41.15
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike




BEARISH Play Updates

DSW Inc. - DSW - close: 24.64 change: -0.25

Stop Loss: 25.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: -3.1%
Entry on October 27 at $23.90
Listed on October 26, 2015
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings in late November
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/29/15: The S&P 500 index was virtually flat today (down less than one point, about -0.04%). Yet shares of DSW underperformed with a -1.0% drop.

The relative weakness in DSW is encouraging. Today's low was $24.25. Traders may want to wait for a drop below today's low before initiating new positions.

Trade Description: October 26, 2015:
Investor sentiment regarding footwear retailers has soured dramatically. Recent earnings reports have not helped. Skechers (SKX) reported earnings last Wednesday (night). They missed estimates on both the top and bottom line. This report from SKX sent shockwaves through the footwear industry. Nike (NKE) seems to be the only one that was unaffected. The rest of the group has turned bearish.

DSW falls in that category. Officially DSW is in the services sector. According to the company, "DSW Inc. is a leading branded footwear and accessories retailer that offers a wide selection of brand name and designer dress, casual and athletic footwear and accessories for women, men and kids. DSW operates 469 stores in 42 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, as well as 370 leased departments for other retailers in the United States under the Affiliated Business Group. We also operate an e-commerce site, http://www.dsw.com, and a mobile site, http://m.dsw.com. Through its partnership with Town Shoes of Canada, the company operates two stores in Canada as well as the e-commerce site http://www.dswcanada.ca."

DSW's most recent earnings report was August 25th. Their earnings of $0.42 a share was in-line with estimates. Unfortunately revenues missed expectations. DSW's management provided soft guidance that was below Wall Street estimates. Traders sold the stock and DSW fell to new 2015 lows at the time. Since then shares have continued to melt.

Today DSW underperformed the market with a -1.9% drop. Shares got some help with a downgrade by Canaccord Genuity. Canaccord reduced DSW from a "buy" to a "hold" and slashed their price target. The analyst is concerned that DSW will not be able to maintain their comparable store sales. Traditional retailers do face a challenge this year. Foot traffic during the holiday season is expected to decline as more consumers shop online.

Technically DSW has broken down to new 18-month lows with today's drop. The point & figure chart is bearish and forecasting a very bearish $11.00 price target. There is a chance that DSW bounces near the 2014 low near $23.50 but we think its momentum will carry it past this level. I am suggesting investors start with small positions to limit risk. Yesterday's intraday low was $24.11. We'll use a trigger at $23.90.

*small positions to limit risk* - Suggested Positions -

Short DSW stock at $23.90

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long DEC $22.50 PUT (DSW151218P22.5) entry $0.90

10/27/15 triggered @ $23.90
10/27/15 DSW downgraded a 2nd time in as many days
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


iPath S&P500 VIX Futures ETN - VXX - close: 18.58 change: +0.24

Stop Loss: None, no stop at this time.
Target(s): $16.25
Current Gain/Loss: +14.8%
2nd position Gain/Loss: +36.0%
Entry on August 25 at $21.82
2nd position: September 2nd at $29.01
Listed on August 24, 2015
Time Frame: Exit prior to October option expiration
Average Daily Volume = 50 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/29/15: The major market indices inched lower and the VXX reacted with a minor bounce.

No new positions at this time.

Trade Description: August 24, 2015
The U.S. stock market's sell-off in the last three days has been extreme. Most of the major indices have collapsed into correction territory (-10% from their highs). The volatile moves in the market have investors panicking for protection. This drives up demand for put options and this fuels a rally in the CBOE volatility index (the VIX).

You can see on this long-term weekly chart that the VIX spiked up to levels not seen since the 2008 bear market during the financial crisis. Moves like this do not happen very often. The VIX rarely stays this high very long.

(see VIX chart from the August 24th play description)

How do we trade the VIX? One way is the VXX, which is an ETN but trades like a stock.

Here is an explanation from the product website:

The iPath® S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures® ETNs (the "ETNs") are designed to provide exposure to the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term FuturesTM Index Total Return (the "Index"). The ETNs are riskier than ordinary unsecured debt securities and have no principal protection. The ETNs are unsecured debt obligations of the issuer, Barclays Bank PLC, and are not, either directly or indirectly, an obligation of or guaranteed by any third party. Any payment to be made on the ETNs, including any payment at maturity or upon redemption, depends on the ability of Barclays Bank PLC to satisfy its obligations as they come due. An investment in the ETNs involves significant risks, including possible loss of principal and may not be suitable for all investors.

The Index is designed to provide access to equity market volatility through CBOE Volatility Index® (the "VIX Index") futures. The Index offers exposure to a daily rolling long position in the first and second month VIX futures contracts and reflects market participants' views of the future direction of the VIX index at the time of expiration of the VIX futures contracts comprising the Index. Owning the ETNs is not the same as owning interests in the index components included in the Index or a security directly linked to the performance of the Index.

I encourage readers to check out a long-term chart of the VXX. This thing has been a consistent loser. One market pundit said the VXX is where money goes to die - if you're buying it. We do not want to buy it. We want to short it. Shorting rallies seems to be a winning strategy on the VXX with a constant trend of lower highs.

Today the VXX spiked up to four-month highs near $28.00 before fading. We are suggesting bearish positions at the opening bell tomorrow. The market volatility is probably not done yet so we are not listing a stop loss yet. Our time frame is two or three weeks (or less).

- Suggested Positions -

Short the VXX @ $21.82

Sept. 2nd - 2nd position (Double Down On The September 1st Spike)

Short the VXX @ $29.01

10/19/15 add an exit target at $16.25
10/15/15 planned exit for the October puts
10/14/15 if you own the options, prepare to exit tomorrow at the close
09/02/15 2nd position begins. VXX gapped down at $29.01
09/01/15 Double down on this trade with the VXX's spike to 6-month highs
08/25/15 trade begins. VXX gaps down at $21.82
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike



CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Lennar Corp. - LEN - close: 49.26 change: -1.93

Stop Loss: 49.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: -4.8%
Entry on October 21 at $52.25
Listed on October 20, 2015
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings in January
Average Daily Volume = 2.8 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/29/15: Home construction stocks plunged today. LEN underperformed with a -3.7% decline and a breakdown under support at $50.00 and under support at its simple 200-dma. Our stop loss was hit at $49.75.

- Suggested Positions -

Long LEN stock @ $52.25 exit $49.75 (-4.8%)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

2016 JAN $55 CALL (LEN160115C55) entry $1.88 exit $0.85 (-54.8%)

10/29/15 stopped out
10/27/15 new stop @ 49.75
10/21/15 triggered @ $52.25
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:



CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Dunkin' Brands Group - DNKN - close: 41.73 change: +1.19

Stop Loss: 41.55
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: Unopened
Entry on October -- at $---.--
Listed on October 27, 2015
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks.
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/29/15: Many of the restaurant stocks were down today. Disappointing earnings results from the likes of Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) sparked the sell-off. Yet oddly enough DNKN did not seem to react. Shares closed virtually unchanged on the session. Other quick-service restaurants did not fare as well.

If DNKN is not going to cooperate then we are going to cut it loose. Our trade did not open.

Trade did not open.

10/29/15 removed from the newsletter, suggested entry was $39.25

chart: