The market indexes finally suffered some profit taking but it was very limited. Given our recent gains, it could have been a lot worse. The Russell 2000 only gave back -1% after a 16.4% rally over the last three weeks.
The selling was heaviest at the open but quickly faded. Early morning dips were bought but sellers returned near the close once traders realized the market was not going to rebound into positive territory. This may not be over but it was a good start. A nice calm bout of profit taking to reduce the overextended conditions.
Stop Loss Updates
Check the graphic below for any new stop losses in bright yellow.
We need to always be prepared for an unexpected decline.
Check the graphic below for any profit stops in green.
We need to always be prepared for a profit exit at resistance.
Current Position Changes
UIS - Unisys
The long stock position remains unopened until a trade at $15.25.
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BULLISH Play Updates
FTK - Flotek - Company Profile
No specific news. Big -6% decline. Energy shares down ahead of the OPEC decision despite the rise in oil prices today. Everybody is squaring up their positions just in case disaster strikes and crude crashes back to $40.
Original Trade Description: November 12th.
Flotek Industries, Inc. develops and supplies oilfield products, services, and equipment to the oil, gas, and mining industries in the United States and internationally. The company's Energy Chemistry Technologies segment designs, develops, manufactures, packages, and markets chemistries under the Complex nano-Fluid brand for use in oil and gas well drilling, cementing, completion, stimulation, and production activities, as well as for use in enhanced and improved oil recovery markets. This segment also constructs and manages automated material handling facilities; and manages loading facilities and blending operations for oilfield services companies. The company's Drilling Technologies segment inspects, manufactures, sells, markets, and rents down-hole drilling equipment that are used in energy, mining, and industrial drilling activities through direct and agent-based sales. Company description from FinViz.com.
In the Q3 cycle they reported a loss of 5 cents on revenue of $73.7 million. That was slightly more than the estimates for a 3-cent loss. Revenue estimates were for $79.5 million. The company explained their 16.2% decline in revenue saying there was a 43.2% reduction in the active rig count in Q3 compared to Q3-2015. In other words, their available business was cut nearly in half but they only recorded a 16% decline in revenue. That was actually a 1.0% increase sequentially from Q2.
Flotek services oil wells and especially new wells with their down hole products including their patented Complex nano-Fluid (CnF) technology that is used in fracking wells. Unlike fracking chemicals used by others, the Flotek CnF chemicals are completely non-toxic and have been proven to provide a slippery surface in the reservoir so that oil flows freely. This nontoxic chemical mix made from citrus oils is seen as a plus for producers constantly under fire for potential ground water contamination.
With rigs going back to work and drilled but uncompleted wells being brought online, the company said they were seeing signs of recovery in the sector. The drop in crude prices to $43 last week failed to depress the stock.
FTK has put in a bottom at $11 and could be ready to move towards the September highs at $16.
If OPEC actually announces some kind of production agreement on Nov 30th, the sector could respond aggressively.
Earnings Feb 1st.
Long FTK shares @ $11.72, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
No options recommended because of price.
GNC - GNC Holdings - Company Profile
No specific news. Fell -5% and missed our stop loss by 10 cents.
Original Trade Description: November 15th.
GNC Holdings, Inc., operates as a specialty retailer of health, wellness, and performance products. The company operates through three segments: Retail, Franchise, and Manufacturing/Wholesale. Its products include vitamins, minerals, and herbal supplement products; and sports nutrition products, diet products, and other wellness products. The company sells its products under the GNC proprietary brands, including Mega Men, Ultra Mega, Total Lean, Pro Performance, Pro Performance AMP, Beyond Raw, GNC Puredge, GNC GenetixHD, and Herbal Plus, as well as under third-party brands. It operates a network of approximately 9,000 locations under the GNC brand worldwide. The company sells its products through company-owned retail stores; Websites, including GNC.com and LuckyVitamin.com, as well as Drugstore.com; domestic and international franchise activities; third-party contract manufacturing; and e-commerce and corporate partnerships. Company description from FinViz.com.
Just over a month ago there was a contingent of Chinese buyers circling GNC when it had a market cap of about $4 billion. When they reported earnings and lowered guidance that market cap fell to about $1 billion. Shares fell from $22 to $13 making the company even more attractive for the Chinese buyers.
The key here is not the U.S. or European business. The key point in a Chinese acquisition is the health conscious Chinese consumer. In China there are plenty of health products but most are scams or poorly processed with large amounts of unknown fillers. The health food and vitamin market is not well managed and all sorts of scary products exist.
GNC as a global brand is the answer. Chinese consumers would feel comfortable buying the brand and knowing there were no harmful ingredients.
Over the last several days, GNC shares have started ticking up again. GNC has hired Goldman Sachs to find a buyer and it is only a matter of time before that happens. The uptick in the shares could be due to rumors leaking out about a potential transaction. Option prices have also escalated suggesting something in progress.
Earnings Jan 26th.
Long GNC shares @ $14.75, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
No options recommended because of price.
IDTI - Integrated Device Technology - Company Profile
No specific news. The company released four new products for board designers.
Original Trade Description: November 14th.
Integrated Device Technology, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and markets a range of semiconductor solutions for the communications, computing, consumer, automotive, and industrial end-markets worldwide. It operates in two segments, Communications; and Computing, Consumer, and Industrial. The Communications segment offers communication timing products, such as clocks and timing solutions; flow-control management devices comprising Serial RapidIO switching solutions; multi-port products; telecommunications products; static random access memory products; first in and first out memories; digital logic products; radio frequency products; and frequency control solutions. The Computing, Consumer, and Industrial segment provides clock generation and distribution products, programmable timing devices, computing timing solutions, high-performance server memory interfaces, PCI Express switching solutions, power management solutions, and signal integrity products, as well as sensing products for mobile, automotive, and industrial solutions. Company description from FinViz.com.
IDTI reported earnings of 34 cents that beat estimates for 33 cents. Revenue of $184.1 million barely edged ahead of estimates for $184.0 million. Revenue rose 8% making the 12th consecutive quarter of revenue growth.
They announced multiple new products for the quarter including a new 5G product in corporation with IBM for the connected car. They also obtained certification for their second production facility for automotive capabilities.
Earnings Jan 30th.
Shares spiked from $21 to $24 on the earnings then settled in for two weeks of post earnings depression. Over the last two days shares has ticked higher again and closed at $23.60 on Monday. This has been resistance from early October and from back in June. With the positive earnings and a positive market I expect the stock to breakout this time.
Long IDTI shares @ $23.69, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
No options recommended because of price.
OCLR - Oclaro Inc - Company Profile
No specific news. Still holding over prior resistance.
Original Trade Description: November 19th.
Oclaro, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets lasers and optical components, modules, and subsystems for the optical communications, industrial, and consumer laser markets worldwide. The company's products generate, detect, combine, and separate light signals in optical communications networks. It offers client side transceivers, including pluggable transceivers; line side transceivers; tunable laser transmitters, such as discrete lasers and co-packaged laser modulators; lithium niobate modulators to manipulate the phase or the amplitude of an optical signal; transponder modules for transmitter and receiver functions; and discrete lasers and receivers for metro and long-haul applications. Company description from FinViz.com.
Oclaro posted strong earnings of 14 cents compared to estimates for 10 cents. Revenue of $136 million also beat estimates for $132 million. The company raised guidance for Q4 to revenue in the $146-$154 million range.
Piper Jaffray said Oclaro will be the only company shipping products in volume in the next two quarters. They cited a lack of price competition today that will appear in mid 2017 as new competitors enter the market in volume. The industry is currently under capacity constraints. PJ also said there was strong demand from China and traction in the U.S. was accelerating due to the surge in IoT devices and video streaming.
Earnings Jan 31st.
Shares surged after earnings then faded the prior week in the Nasdaq uncertainty. Last week the stock broke over resistance at $9.25 and is now breaking out to five-year highs. I believe the rally will continue now that it is in breakout mode.
Long OCLR shares @ $9.86, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
No options recommended because of price and spreads.
UIS - Unisys Corp - Company Profile
No specific news. Shares rebounded quickly from the decline at the open and I considered changing the recommendation to open the position on Tuesday morning. However, there was somebody sitting on the price at exactly $15 all afternoon and the market weakened as the day progressed. We are not going to lose anything by waiting for a breakout over that $15 resistance.
This position remains unopened until a trade at $15.25.
Original Trade Description: November 26th.
Unisys Corporation provides information technology services worldwide. It operates through two segments, Services and Technology. The Services segment provides cloud and infrastructure services, application services, and business process outsourcing services. The Technology segment designs and develops software, servers, and related products. It offers a range of data center, infrastructure management, and cloud computing offerings for clients to virtualize and automate data-center environments. This segment's product offerings include enterprise-class servers, such as the ClearPath Forward family of fabric servers; the Unisys Stealth family of security software; and operating system software and middleware. Company description from FinViz.com.
The information technology sector is undergoing a transformation and older companies are becoming renewed as they change focus to the new cloud services offerings. Unisys was founded in 1886 making it 130 years old. You can imagine how many times they have changed products and focus over that period.
The company is focusing on cloud-based products and software as a service. They also offer physical security for data centers both physical security and software security. They offer a broad range of outsourcing services for building managers and clients. They have been selling their noncore assets and focusing their skills to build specialized capabilities to win industry specific projects.
They reported adjusted earnings of 41 cents compared to estimates for 29 cents. Revenue of $683.3 million beat estimates for $664 million.
Earnings Jan 24th.
Looking at a daily chart is scary since shares have risen from $10 to $15 since the election. However, the rise has been calm and without any material volatility on the days the market was weak.
On the weekly chart, resistance at $14.50 was broken on Thursday and there is nothing else to slow it down until $20.
Just in case the market tanks on Monday morning, I am putting an entry trigger on the position.
With a UIS trade at $15.25, buy UIS shares, initial stop loss $13.50.
No options recommended because of price and spreads.
XLF - Financial SPDR ETF - ETF Profile
The ETF lost -1% as minor profit taking hit the banks.
Original Trade Description: November 16th.
The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the Financial Select Sector Index.
The ETF is comprised of 44% banks, 20% capital markets, 19% insurance, 11% diversified financial services and 6% consumer finance.
All of those sectors will do better as rates rise. As of today the CME FedWatch Tool shows a 91% chance of a rate hike in December as well as a 91% chance for the February meeting and 92% for March. If they do hike in December the odds will decline for February but depending on their commentary the March meeting will still be on the table. Multiple Fedwatchers have speculated there could be 3-4 rate hikes in 2017 if the economy continues to improve.
The Fed has to hike rates in 2017 in order to have some room to maneuver if the business cycle rolls over and a recession appears. We are in the third longest expansion in history and we are due for another recession soon.
The banks rallied on the rise in treasury yields and the expectations for the December rate hike as well as the potential for decreased regulation. President elect Trump has said he would kill regulations harming the banking industry. There is even talk of modifying Dodd-Frank.
Banks have rallied significantly and I would not suggest buying the actual ETF after the big gain. However, I do not believe the gains are over. The gains last week spiked the ETF to a 7-year high but the 2007 highs were over $30.
On Tuesday, somebody bought 300,000 contracts of the March $23 call at an average of 55 cents. That was $16.5 million in option premiums. That takes some serious conviction. I am recommending we follow them and buy the same call option. That way our risk is limited to $50 per contract. I am willing to bet $50 that the ETF will be over $23 by March. This is a long term position and there will not be a stop loss.
Long March $23 call @ 29 cents. No stop loss.
BEARISH Play Updates
VXX - Volatility Index Futures - ETF Description
Minor gain at the close at $28.06 after spiking to $28.55 at the open.
Since this is a long-term play, I am not going to comment on it every day. Just forget it is in your portfolio and hope for a strong market rally in Q4.
Original Trade Description: September 6th.
The VXX is a short term volatility product based on the VIX futures. As a futures product it has the rollover curse. Every time they roll to a new futures contract they have to pay a premium and that lowers the price of the ETF. It is a flawed product with a perpetual decline built in from the monthly roll over in the futures contracts.
As evidence of this flaw, they have now done four 1:4 reverse stock splits. The last four reverse splits occurred at $13.11 (11/2010), $8.77 (10/2012), $12.84 (11/2013), $9.52 (8/8/16). The prospectus says it can reverse split anytime it trades under $25 for a prolonged period and the splits will always be 1:4.
After the August split the ETF moved sideways for four weeks at $36. I think everyone was waiting for the typical August volatility. When it did not show up and the market rallied on Friday that support broke. And the decline has begun.
Because there may be some September volatility, anyone in this position must understand that it may move higher before it moves lower BUT it will always move lower. We just have to wait it out. Volatility never lasts forever.
Unfortunately, put options are expensive with a volatility instrument at this price level. The only recommendation is to short the ETF and forget it. If we do get a prolonged rally as some are expecting we could see strong gains in the next 2-3 months. This will be a long-term position. This is not a 2-3 week play. I can guarantee you, if history holds, we can play this until it splits 1:4 again at $10. Once we are in the position and profitable I will put a trailing stop loss on it. We will take profits and then look for a bounce to get back in. We could keep this play in the portfolio on a trading basis permanently.
Short VXX shares @ $33.88, no initial stop loss.
No options recommended because of price.
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