Obviously, nobody can call a market top until a week later but I would be shocked if we move higher. It took some market manipulation in the last 4 min of trading to close the Dow over 22,000 after fighting resistance at that level all day. On the positive side, the Nasdaq and S&P came back from decent intraday declines to close flat. However, the Nasdaq made a 2-week intraday low and closed fractionally negative. Even with Apple's 7-point gain they could not lift it into positive territory.
The Russell 2000 posted a 1.1% decline of -15 points and broke convincingly through the support at 1,425. This should poison market sentiment if the decline continues.
The only positive index for several days has been the Dow. Now that the 22,000 target has been achieved, traders could lose interest because there is no obvious secondary target. Earnings are starting to wind down and next week is when the August volatility normally arrives.
Stop Loss Updates
Check the graphic below for any new stop losses in bright yellow.
We need to always be prepared for an unexpected decline.
Check the graphic below for any profit stops in green.
We need to always be prepared for a profit exit at resistance.
Current Position Changes
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BULLISH Play Updates
GIII - G-III Apparel - Company Profile
No specific news. Shares gave back Tuesday's gain to fall back to resistance at $26.
Original Trade Description: June 29th.
G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. designs, manufactures, and markets men's and women's apparel. It operates in two segments, Wholesale Operations and Retail Operations. The company's products include outerwear, dresses, sportswear, swimwear, women's suits, and women's performance wear; and women's handbags, footwear, small leather goods, cold weather accessories, and luggage. It markets swimwear, resort wear, and related accessories under the Vilebrequin brand; footwear, apparel, and accessories under the G.H. Bass brand; and proprietary products under the DKNY, Donna Karan, Andrew Marc, Marc New York, Black Rivet, Wilsons, Eliza J, Jessica Howard, G-III Sports by Carl Banks, and G-III for Her brands. G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. also licenses its products under the Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger, Karl Lagerfeld Paris, Guess?, Kenneth Cole NY, Cole Haan, Levi's, Vince Camuto, Ivanka Trump, Ellen Tracy, Kensie, and Jessica Simpson brands, as well as has licenses with the National Football League, National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, National Hockey League, Hands High, Touch by Alyssa Milano, Collegiate Licensing Company, Major League Soccer, Starter, and Warrior by Danica Patrick, as well as approximately 140 U.S. colleges and universities. The company offers its products to department, specialty, and mass merchant retail stores in the United States and internationally. As of January 31, 2017, it operated 411 leased retail stores, which included 190 Wilsons Leather stores, 163 G.H. Bass stores, 50 DKNY stores, 5 Calvin Klein Performance stores, and 3 Karl Lagerfeld Paris stores. The company also operates Wilsons Leather, G.H. Bass, and DKNY branded online stores. Company description from FinViz.com.
G-III shares were pressured in May by the weakness in the retail sector in general. They rebounded in early June on better than expected earnings but were hit again in early July by the next wave of retailer warnings.
In the last quarter, G-III saw sales rise 16% to $529 million. Because of costs associated with the acquisition of Donna Karan they posted a loss of 18 cents but analysts were expecting a loss of 37 cents. Wholesale sales are growing by double digits in most brands. The Wilsons Leather and Bass Stores are the exception and they said they were closing some stores and repurposing some others. The Donna Karan brand is rapidly expanding with new merchandise and G-III thinks it could eventually be their biggest brand. The company is expected to earn $1.27 in 2017 and $1.72 in 2018.
Expected earnings September 5th.
Shares have risen over the last three weeks despite the market volatility. They closed only 20 cents below a five-month high on Friday. A breakout could trigger short covering and additional buying.
Long GIII shares @ $26.10, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
Long Sept $30 call @ 72 cents, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
INFY - Infosys - Company Profile
No specific news. Still fighting resistance.
Original Trade Description: June 26th.
Infosys Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides consulting, technology, and outsourcing services in North America, Europe, India, and internationally. It provides business information technology services, including application development and maintenance, independent validation, infrastructure management, and business process management services, as well as engineering services, such as engineering and life cycle solutions; and consulting and systems integration services comprising consulting, enterprise solutions, systems integration, and advanced technologies. The company's products include Finacle, a banking solution that provides analytics, core banking, consumer e-banking, corporate e-banking, Islamic banking, mobile banking, origination, payments, SME enable, treasury, wealth management, and youth banking solutions. Its products also comprise Infosys Mana, a knowledge-based AI platform; Infosys Information Platform, an analytics platform that enables to get insights from various data sources for decisions across industries; AssistEdge, CreditFinanceEdge, ProcureEdge, and TradeEdge that are cloud-hosted business platforms; Panaya that enables various SAP and Oracle EBS changes; and Skava, which are digital experience solutions, as well as analytics, cloud, and digital transformation services. The company serves clients in the financial services, manufacturing, retail, consumer packaged goods and logistics, energy and utilities, communication and services, hi-tech, life sciences, healthcare and insurance, and other industries. Company description from FinViz.com.
Infosys reported earnings of 24 cents that rose 5.8% and beat estimates by a penny. Revenues of $2.651 billion beat estimates for $2.629 billion. Revenues rose 6.3% on a constant currency basis. The company announced numerous wins of high profile contracts.
The company is dilligently following its "Renew Now" program with three offerings. Those are Artificial Intelligence, Knowledge-based IT and Design Thinking. During the reported quarter, Infosys continued to renew traditional services and rolled out others in areas such as Cloud Ecosystem, Big Data and Analytics, API and Micro Services, Cyber Security, and IoT Engineering Services. Also, during the quarter, Infosys launched Boundaryless Data Lake, an offering powered by the Information Grid Solution on Amazon Web Services (AWS).
The company raised 2018 guidance with revenue growth in the range of 7.1% to 9.1%, up from 6.1%-8.1%.
Earnings October 13th.
Shares rebounded over the last week to close at a new 9-month high on Wednesday.
Long INFY shares @ $15.66, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
Alternate position: Long Oct $17 call @ 25 cents. See portfolio graphic for stop loss.
KR - Kroger - Company Profile
No specific news. Minor gain but still a gain.
Original Trade Description: July 31st.
The Kroger Co., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer in the United States. It also manufactures and processes food for sale in its supermarkets. The company operates retail food and drug stores, multi-department stores, jewelry stores, and convenience stores. Its combination food and drug stores offer natural food and organic sections, pharmacies, general merchandise, pet centers, fresh seafood, and organic produce; multi-department stores provide general merchandise items, such as apparel, home fashion and furnishings, outdoor living, electronics, automotive products, toys, and fine jewelry; and price impact warehouse stores offer grocery, and health and beauty care items, as well as meat, dairy, baked goods, and fresh produce items. The company's marketplace stores comprise full-service grocery, pharmacy, health and beauty departments, and perishable goods, as well as general merchandise, including apparel, home goods, and toys. It operates under the banner brands, such as Kroger, Ralphs, Fred Meyer, King Soopers, etc., as well as Simple Truth and Simple Truth Organic brands. As of January 28, 2017, the company operated 2,796 retail food stores, including 1,445 fuel centers; 784 convenience stores; and 319 fine jewelry stores and an online retail store, as well as franchised 69 convenience stores. The Kroger Co. was founded in 1883. Company description from FinViz.com.
Expected earnings September 14th.
Shares crashed from $30 to $20 on the Amazon announcement but over the last week a strong rebound has begun. Whole Foods has 340 stores. Kroger has 2,796 stores. Whole Foods sells to a high dollar consumer, thus the nickname Whole Paycheck Foods. They have an estimates 12 million potential customers. Kroger sells to everyone with a potential customer base of more than 200 million. Amazon is not going to be a threat to Kroger for a long time even if the acquisition gets approved and that is still an unknown with multiple committees researching antitrust issues and the current administration clearly anti-Amazon.
I am recommending we ride the stock back up until reality returns to the price.
Long KR shares @ $24.50, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
Alternate position: Long Sept $25 call @ $.98, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
BEARISH Play Updates
VXX - Volatility Index Futures - ETF Description
Only a minor gain in a mostly down market. The Dow continues to color expectations.
The VIX historical low close was 9.31 on Dec 22nd, 1993. We are at those levels now.
Fundstrat said "go long volatility" because there is a 50% chance of a 10% correction in the S&P over the next three months.
We are nearing the point where the ETF will do a 1:4 reverse split. That will be an excellent opportunity for us to get short again at a higher level.
Shortsqueeze.com is reporting current short interest at 63 million shares out of 88 million outstanding.
Original Trade Description: April 12th.
The VXX is a short-term volatility product based on the VIX futures. As a futures product it has the rollover curse. Every time they roll to a new futures contract, they have to pay a premium and that lowers the price of the ETF. It is a flawed product with a perpetual decline built in from the monthly roll over in the futures contracts.
As evidence of this flaw, they have now done four 1:4 reverse stock splits. The last four reverse splits occurred at $13.11 (11/2010), $8.77 (10/2012), $12.84 (11/2013), $9.52 (8/8/16). The prospectus says it can reverse split anytime it trades under $25 for a prolonged period and the splits will always be 1:4.
Unfortunately, put options are expensive with a volatility instrument at this price level. The only recommendation is to short the ETF and forget it. If we do get a prolonged rally as some are expecting we could see strong market gains in the next 2-3 months. This will be a long-term position. This is not a 2-3 week play. I can guarantee you, if history holds, we can play this until it splits 1:4 again at $10. Once we are in the position and profitable I will put a trailing stop loss on it. We will take profits and then look for a bounce to get back in.
We know from experience that the VXX always declines. The last time we shorted this ETF we had a $7.23 gain.
Short the VXX @ $17.98, no stop loss because it always declines eventually.
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