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New Option Plays

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Call Options Plays
Put Options Plays
Strangle Options Plays
MON AVB None
MOS    
POT    

New Calls

Monsanto - MON - cls: 114.03 change: +4.11 stop: 107.85

Company Description:
Monsanto Company is a leading global provider of technology-based solutions and agricultural products that improve farm productivity and food quality. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
The agriculture/fertilizer stocks are back on the momentum list. The group is bouncing sharply and poised to breakout. MON is nearing resistance in the $116 region. We want to catch the bullish breakout so we are suggesting readers buy calls at $117.05. If triggered we have two targets. Our first target is the $127.00 level. Our second target is the $137.00-140.00 range. A move over $118 would produce a new triple-top breakout buy signal on the Point & Figure chart. These have been very volatile stocks so readers should consider them aggressive, higher-risk plays. FYI: MON is presenting at the Goldman Sachs 2008 AgForum on February 12th at 12:40 p.m. Plus, MON is presenting at the Morgan Stanley Basic Materials Conference 2008 on February 21st.

Note: We are adding multiple plays in the same industry. Don't try to play them all. Find the one you like best.

Suggested Options:
Our suggested entry point is $117.05. We're suggesting the March calls.

BUY CALL MAR 115 MFP-CC open interest=1862 current ask $8.00
BUY CALL MAR 120 MFP-CD open interest=1763 current ask $5.60
BUY CALL MAR 125 MFP-CE open interest=5015 current ask $3.90

Picked on February xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/03/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.1 million

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Mosaic - MOS - close: 99.53 change: +3.31 stop: 89.45

Company Description:
The Mosaic Company is one of the world's leading producers and marketers of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. For the global agriculture industry, Mosaic is a single source of phosphates, potash, nitrogen fertilizers and feed ingredients. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
MOS is another fertilizer stock that is seeing a lot of momentum. The stock has rallied back to resistance near $100 and looks poised to breakout. The early February high was $100.90. We are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $101.00. If triggered we're listing two targets. The first target is $109.75, just under the January highs. Our second, more aggressive target is the $118.00-120 zone. These are very volatile stocks with a lot of intraday spikes so we're playing with a very wide stop loss. More conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop in the $94-95-96 zone. We would consider this a more aggressive, higher-risk play. FYI: MOS is presenting at the Goldman Sachs AgForum on February 12th at 9:40 a.m. ET.

Note: We are adding multiple plays in the same industry. Don't try to play them all. Find the one you like best.

Suggested Options:
Our suggested entry point is $101.00. We're suggesting the March calls. Normally a March $110 call would end in -CB but the CBOE is listing MOS' $110 call as -CY. Check with your broker.

BUY CALL MAR 100 MOS-CT open interest=3582 current ask $8.30
BUY CALL MAR 105 MOS-CA open interest=1755 current ask $6.30
BUY CALL MAR 110 MOS-CY open interest=1941 current ask $4.50

Picked on February xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/09/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.8 million

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Potash - POT - close: 144.08 change: +6.58 stop: 136.99

Company Description:
Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. is the world's largest fertilizer enterprise producing the three primary plant nutrients and a leading supplier to three distinct market categories: agriculture, with the largest capacity in the world in potash, second largest in nitrogen and third largest in phosphate; animal nutrition, with the world's largest capacity in phosphate feed ingredients; and industrial chemicals, as the largest global producer of industrial nitrogen products and the world's largest capacity for production of purified industrial phosphoric acid. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
POT is the third but certainly not the least of our new bullish plays in the fertilizer industry. The stock is very volatile and can see some big intraday moves. On the plus side shares are setting up for another bullish breakout higher. More aggressive traders might want to jump in now or above $145. We are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $147.50, which is above the early February high. There is relatively clear resistance near $152 but we are betting that POT is actually on the verge of an entire leg higher so we're listing a target at $158.00-160.00. More aggressive traders may want to aim significantly higher. The Point & Figure chart is forecasting a $222 target. Again, this is a very volatile stock. Readers should consider it an aggressive, higher-risk trade. Aggressive traders could put their stop under the 50-dma. We're going to try and get away with a stop loss under today's low.

Note: We are adding multiple plays in the same industry. Don't try to play them all. Find the one you like best.

Suggested Options:
Our suggested entry point is at $147.50. We're suggesting the March calls.

BUY CALL MAR 145 PYP-CI open interest=2466 current ask $10.30
BUY CALL MAR 150 PYP-CJ open interest=3687 current ask $ 8.10
BUY CALL MAR 155 PYP-CK open interest=1086 current ask $ 6.10
BUY CALL MAR 160 PYP-CL open interest=8097 current ask $ 4.70

Picked on February xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.9 million
 

New Puts

Avalonbay - AVB - close: 89.06 change: -1.48 stop: 95.05

Company Description:
As of December 31, 2007, the Company owned or held a direct or indirect ownership interest in 184 apartment communities. AvalonBay is in the business of developing, redeveloping, acquiring, and managing apartment communities in high barrier-to-entry markets of the United States. (source: company press release or website)

Why We Like It:
We have been bearish on the REIT stocks for days now so we're adding another one to our put candidates list. AVB just broke down under support near $90.00 today and the MACD indicator has just produced a new sell signal. The P&F chart is bearish with an $80 target. AVB found support near $80 in January so we're going to target a decline into the $81.50-80.00 zone. We are playing with a slightly wider stop loss at $95.05. More conservative traders could try a stop in the $93-94 zone but remember these have been very volatile stocks with a lot of intraday spikes. Another risk with AVB is the above average short interest. The most recent data puts short interest at 12% of the 70 million-share float. Depending on which figure you use for "average" volume this equates to about 6.5 to 9.0 days of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the March puts.

BUY PUT MAR 90.00 AVB-OR open interest= 74 current ask $6.70
BUY PUT MAR 85.00 AVB-OQ open interest= 66 current ask $4.50
BUY PUT MAR 80.00 AVB-OP open interest= 62 current ask $2.85

Picked on February 11 at $ 89.06
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/06/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
 

New Strangles

None today.
 

New Play Archives