Play Editor's Note: Tomorrow could be another extremely volatile day. First we have the non-farm payrolls report due out 8:30 a.m., one hour before the market opens. Now it's widely expected that the jobs report is going to come in negative. The question is how negative? If it's a blow-out to the downside it could spark another market sell-off. That's one wildcard for tomorrow. What I think will happen is stocks drift sideways or drift lower as investors wait on the next congressional vote on the bailout plan. Congress meets on Friday at 9:00 a.m. but I can't tell you when the vote will occur. They could debate the bill for hours but a vote is expected tomorrow. If the vote occurs during the trading session and it is passed I'm expecting a bounce. I would expect the bounce to probably last through Monday. The goal here is to use the bounce as another entry point for bearish positions. As I've said before the bill doesn't change the fact that our economy and the global economy is slowing. It's the slow down that fueled the market sell-off today. If you're really nimble you could try scalping some gains from the post-approval bounce. I'm not listing any new plays for Friday except the XLF strangle. I will provide a big list of stocks I'll be watching for possible bearish entry points as the post-approval bounce begins to stall. Remember, the best trade in this environment is probably just sitting on the sidelines and watching.
Here is my current list of candidates: LEAP, SIAL, MMM, BA, GOOG, AXP, MLM, CERN, ESI, CEPH (bull trap pattern), MHK, UNH, NIHD, LRCX, XLNX, LOGI, HOLX, SBUX, CAKE, HAS, LINTA, LVS, HD, TXN, CBS, DNEX, LNN, PPD, TTC, NILE, and AYI. This is not supposed to be an exhaustive list. Frankly, you could probably just throw a dart at the market today and find a bearish candidate.
Financial Sector SPDR - XLF - cls: 19.64 chg: -1.03 stop: n/a
Why We Like It:
We're suggesting the October options listed below. Try to open positions in the $19.50-20.50 zone. Our estimated cost is $1.54. We want to sell if either option hits $2.25. We only have two weeks left before October options expire.
BUY CALL OCT 22.00 XLF-JV open interest=273481 current ask $0.67
Strikes are available at $1.00 strikes so it would be easy to pick a different pair of options to trade.
Picked on October 02 at $ 19.64