NEW DIRECTIONAL CALL PLAYS

Big Lots Inc. - BIG - close: 45.38 change: +0.75

Stop Loss: 43.40
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Average Daily Volume = 1.26 million
Entry on January -- at $---.--
Listed on January 14, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Company Description

Why We Like It:
It would appear that investors have a pretty short memory when it comes to BIG. This company is in the services sector. They're part of the discount store industry.

According to company marketing materials, "Big Lots Inc. (BIG) is a unique, non-traditional, discount retailer operating 1,495 BIG LOTS stores in 48 states with product assortments in the merchandise categories of Food, Consumables, Furniture & Home Decor, Seasonal, Soft Home, Hard Home, and Electronics & Accessories."

The stock saw big gains in 2014 at least until they reported their Q3 earnings in December. That big drop on the daily chart was a reaction to BIG's earnings results. Analysts were expecting a loss of $0.05 a share on revenues of $1.12 billion. BIG reported a loss of $0.06 with revenues virtually flat at $1.11 billion. Guidance was only in-line with Wall Street's estimates.

The good news is that BIG does expect to see a profit again in the fourth quarter. They also reported +1.4% comparable store sales growth in the third quarter, which not only beat the -2.5% comp sales from a year ago but was the first positive growth in three years. None of that mattered. BIG plunged -17% on its Q3 report and didn't find support until the $38.00 area.

Since then shares have seen something of a turnaround. After consolidating sideways for a couple of weeks BIG has shot higher in January while most of the broader market has been sinking. The breakout above technical resistance at its 50-dma and its 200-dma is encouraging.

This morning the U.S. retail sales data came in below expectations and yet BIG managed to shrug off this headline. Traders bought the dip near the 50-dma (around $44) this morning. By the closing bell BIG was outperforming with a +1.6% gain.

It looks like this relative strength may continue. Further gains could spark some short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at 17% of the relatively small 52 million share float. Today's intraday high was $45.65. We are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $45.75. The 200-dma is at $43.50. We'll start this trade with a stop at $43.40.

Trigger @ $45.75

- Suggested Positions -

Buy the Apr $47.50 CALL (BIG150417C47.5) current ask $2.65

Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Daily Chart:

Weekly Chart:


Constellation Brands - STZ - close: 108.43 change: +2.13

Stop Loss: 104.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Average Daily Volume = 1.25 million
Entry on January -- at $---.--
Listed on January 14, 2014
Time Frame: Exit prior to February expiration
New Positions: Yes, see below

Company Description

Why We Like It:
Today the big players in the beer industry like Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) and Molson Coors (TAP) are losing market share to smaller craft beer brewers. Yet STZ actually seeing momentum in its beer portfolio.

STZ is part of the consumer goods sector. According to the company's website, "Constellation Brands, Inc. is a leading wine, beer and spirits company with a broad portfolio of premium brands. Constellation is the world leader in premium wine, the leading multi-category beverage alcohol company in the U.S. and the number three beer company in the U.S. Headquartered in Victor, New York, Constellation Brands is an S&P 500 Index and Fortune 1000® company with more than 100 brands in our portfolio, sales in approximately 100 countries and operations in approximately 40 facilities."

Last year the stock was a strong performer. The S&P 500 rallied about +11% in 2014 while STZ surged +39%. Investors have been consistently buying dips. The relative strength from last year has carried into 2015.

The company recently reported earnings on January 8th. Wall Street was expecting a profit of $1.14 per share on revenues of $1.51 billion. STZ said their earnings rose +11.8% to $1.23 a share. Revenues were up +7% to $1.54 billion, beating estimates on both counts. Management then raised their 2015 guidance from $4.10-to-$4.25 to $4.25-to-$4.35. That compares to Wall Street's 2015 estimate of $4.24.

STZ's CEO Rob Sands commented on their latest results saying, "We achieved outstanding results for the third quarter driven by the exceptional ongoing momentum for our beer business." Their beer sales rose +16% and gained market share.

The stock has seen multiple upgrades in January and currently trading at all-time highs. Today traders bought the dip near $105.00. The stock looks poised to breakout past short-term resistance at $108.50. The point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting a long-term target of $127.00.

We are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $108.65. We'll start this trade with a stop at $104.85.

Trigger @ 108.65

- Suggested Positions -

Buy the FEB $110 CALL (STZ150220C110) current ask $2.25

Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Daily Chart:

Weekly Chart: