NEW DIRECTIONAL PUT PLAYS

Cracker Barrel Old Country - CBRL - close: 137.50 change: -3.41

Stop Loss: 145.05
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Average Daily Volume = 395 thousand
Entry on October -- at $---.--
Listed on October 21, 2015
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings on Nov. 24th
New Positions: Yes, see below

Company Description

Trade Description:
Some of the restaurant stocks are struggling. Disappointing consumer spending, slower foot traffic, and tougher comparisons are weighing on the group.

CBRL is in the services sector. According to the company, "Cracker Barrel Old Country Store restaurants provide a friendly home-away-from-home in its old country stores and restaurants. Guests are cared for like family while relaxing and enjoying real home-style food and shopping that's surprisingly unique, genuinely fun and reminiscent of America's country heritage...all at a fair price. Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (Nasdaq:CBRL) was established in 1969 in Lebanon, Tenn. and operates 637 company-owned locations in 42 states."

Earnings have taken a turn for the worse with CBRL. Back in June this year CBRL delivered a very upbeat earnings report. Profit was $1.49 per share, which was 12 cents above estimates. Revenues were up +6.3% to $683.7 million, beating expectations. Comparable store sales were relatively healthy and management raised their guidance.

Fast-forward to September 16th and CBRL reported their fiscal Q4 results of $1.97 a share. That did beat estimates but revenue growth slowed down to +3.8% to $719 million, which missed estimates. Comparable store sales slowed down to +0.6%. Management lowered their fiscal 2016 Q1 guidance.

Technically CBRL has developed a bearish trend of lower highs and now lower lows. This past week has seen the oversold bounce fail at resistance near its 200-dma. The point & figure chart is bearish and forecasting at $124.00 target.

I'm a little bit worried about the elevated short interest. The most recent data listed short interest at 22% of the small 19.0 million share float. That could make CBRL more volatile than normal but the shorts are probably right on this one, at least for a little while.

Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to launch bearish positions at $136.90. We are not setting an exit target tonight but the $130.00 and $120.00 levels are potential support (and thus possible bearish targets).

Trigger @ $136.90

- Suggested Positions -

Buy the DEC $130 PUT (CBRL151218P130) current ask $3.10
option price is a current quote and not a suggested entry price.

Entry disclaimer: To avoid an unfavorable entry point, we will not launch a new play if the stock gaps open more than $1.00 past our suggested entry point.

Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Daily Chart:

Weekly Chart: