Editors Note:

After six months of bad news, this stock is poised for a breakout. The bad news started in December when political candidates began bashing the biotech stocks. After six-months of negative comments the bad news is priced in and the outlook is turning positive.



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XBI - Biotech ETF - ETF Profile

The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of the S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index. The fund is equally weighted unlike the IBB which is market cap weighted.

The biotech sector was crushed back in January when Clinton locked on to high priced drugs as un American and pledged to force companies to sell drugs at reasonable prices. Several other candidates picked up the topic and the sector was trashed. The two remaining candidates have moved on to other issues and Clinton is looking less likely to win. Trump is a businessman and understands companies have to make a profit in order to fund future research. He has made comments about drug prices but he is not expected to actually change anything in that area if elected.

After several false starts the ETF is about to break out to a 6-month high over $60. If the XBI does breakout the next material resistance is $70 and it traded as high as $90 last year before the Valeant disaster.

Fortunately, the XBI is not a stock and does not report earnings so we can hold it through the earnings cycle. Any biotech stocks reporting decent earnings will lift the ETF. I am using the September strike because the next series is December and the options are grossly expensive.

Buy Sept $60 call, currently $2.58. Initial stop loss $55.35.


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