Editors Note:

The biotech sector has been in decline since the end of September and that decline accelerated when Illumina (ILMN) gapped down -$50 on Tuesday. Now at support, is it time to catch this falling knife?



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XBI - Biotech ETF - ETF Profile

The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of the S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index.

The XBI traded up to $69 in late September and has since crashed back to support at $60 as various biotech stocks released data on drug trials that were not successful, were involved in drug pricing schemes or simply issued a profit warning as was the case with Illumina.

The three weeks of headlines over the EpiPen pricing disaster pushed all the drugs stocks lower on worries of drug price controls. The Theranos disaster and the closing of their labs weighed on the sector even though Theranos was not a public company.

Comments from Clinton about drug pricing concerns also caused investors to flee some drug company stocks.

With the XBI now -13% off its September high and all of those factors baked somewhat into the market, it may be time to place a bet on a biotech rebound. New drugs are announced every week and old diseases are cured or at least made tolerable.

I know it is hard to buy a stock in free fall but this may be the right point. The $60 level is support from June and August. The 100-day average is currently $60.37. This appears to be a good spot to place a bet.

Other traders may have felt the same way today. The XBI posted a minor gain in a bad market and the opening dip to $60.50 was only a drop of 75 cents and it was quickly erased before 10:15.

Not posting a material decline when the Dow was down -185 and the Nasdaq was down -70 is a sign of good relative strength.

If we are wrong about the support at the $60 level, we will stop out quickly and look for a retest of the next support level at $50. I am going to put an entry trigger on it just in case the market gaps down again on Friday.

With an XBI trade at $62.50

Buy Nov $64 call, currently $1.83, initial stop loss $58.85


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