Editors Note:

The economy may be slowly improving but consumers are finding it tougher to get by. It is especially tough to find people who can pay $15K to $25K for a new Harley.



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HOG - Harley-Davidson - Company Profile

Harley-Davidson, Inc. primarily manufactures and sells cruiser and touring motorcycles. The company operates through two segments, Motorcycles & Related Products, and Financial Services. The Motorcycles & Related Products segment designs, manufactures, and sells wholesale on-road Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, general merchandise, and related services. It offers motorcycle parts and accessories, such as replacement parts, and mechanical and cosmetic accessories; general merchandise, including MotorClothes apparel and riding gears; and various services to its independent dealers comprising motorcycle services, business management training programs, and customized dealer software packages. This segment also licenses the Harley-Davidson name and other trademarks. It sells its products to retail customers through a network of independent dealers, as well as ecommerce channels in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The Financial Services segment provides wholesale and retail financing services; and insurance and insurance-related programs primarily to Harley-Davidson dealers and retail customers in the United States and Canada. This segment offers wholesale financial services, such as floorplan and open account financing of motorcycles, and motorcycle parts and accessories; and retail financing services, including installment lending for the purchase of new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles. It also operates as an agent providing point-of-sale protection products, including motorcycle insurance, extended service contracts, credit protection, and motorcycle maintenance protection. Harley-Davidson, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Company description from FinViz.com.

A week ago they reported earnings of $1.48 compared to estimates for $1.38. Revenue of $1.77 billion also beat estimates for 1.59 billion. That was the good news. The bad news was a 6.7% drop in motorcycle sales, with a 9.3% decline in the USA. They warned they only expected to ship 241,000 to 249,000 for the full year, down 6% to 8% from 2016 .Prior guidance was for flat sales to 1% lower. For Q3 they only expect to ship 39,000 to 44,000 units, down 10% to 20% from Q3-2016.

Finding consumers who can afford a new bike and finding financing is getting tough. The major banks are pulling back from auto and motorcycle loans because of the rising defaults. The situation for Harley is not going to improve this year.

Expected earnings Oct 17th.

Friday's close was a 52-week low.

Buy Nov $45 put, currently $1.80, initial stop loss $50.65.